clester's Account Talk

[Nordic]

It's funny but all the Geopolitical, Fed, economic etc. news is always there. There is always something to worry about. Thats why I like using technicals. It simplifies things. Also, I have decided that using too many technical parameters just confuses things. So, I use just a few simple ideas to make my decisions on.

The other stuff is interesting and I follow it but now its just background noise to me.


I will be looking for a lower low but a higher RSI to trigger a buy. This creates a divergence and usually indicates things are turning around. Be aware though that we are now in what my system defines as a bear market (50 dma is below the 200). Bias is now to the downside so I usually only buy 50% unless its very compelling.

We just have to be patient. I think we will get it this month. Maybe around the Fed meeting.

Agree with being patient while the Fed thing plays out in a couple of weeks. What you just said reminded me of what was in this article:

‘Bearish divergence’ is warning investors not to buy the dip in the stock market - MarketWatch

 

[clester]

Agree with being patient while the Fed thing plays out in a couple of weeks. What you just said reminded me of what was in this article:

‘Bearish divergence’ is warning investors not to buy the dip in the stock market - MarketWatch

View attachment 35102

Good chart. Shows exactly what I was talking about. We don't have a divergence yet as RSI is in a near term uptrend. What usually happens is we get a lower low in price as RSI climbs. I'm looking for is that last big push down in price for a test or break of the low.

 

[clester]

Nothing to report really. Nothing has changed for my system. So, I guess everyone is waiting on the Fed. I think I'll plan on waiting until Friday to see how it shakes out.

 

[nnuut]

That's me all over!:fing02:
I might miss a BIG up, but could miss a BIG Down. Nobody knows.

 

[clester]

Today we broke out of the wedge pattern and so That gives me a 50% buy signal. It should climb up to test the 50 dma. I won't execute a buy though because tomorrow is the fed day and who knows how the market will react. My feeling is that Friday will reverse the action of tomorrow. So, if it goes way up I would sell and visa versa. In any case my system has a max of 50% in stocks because we are in a bear market (50 dma is below the 200).

I would really like to see a retest of the low or a breach of it to get a really good signal.

 

[clester]

Today we broke out of the wedge pattern and so That gives me a 50% buy signal. It should climb up to test the 50 dma. I won't execute a buy though because tomorrow is the fed day and who knows how the market will react. My feeling is that Friday will reverse the action of tomorrow. So, if it goes way up I would sell and visa versa. In any case my system has a max of 50% in stocks because we are in a bear market (50 dma is below the 200).

I would really like to see a retest of the low or a breach of it to get a really good signal.

As a "pat on the back" to my system, It called the low. The problem was that I didn't have any trades left in August. September has given it any good signals for may system but it does expect a climb back to test the 50 dma at some time but it also expects a retest of the lows. So, I'm in no mans land right now. Having a conservative system and retired person I see the risk as too high for me right now. I'll just continue to hold out for a better buying opportunity for now. We are in a bear market and that is where one can lose a lot of money.

Days like this, where we are up a lot, are hard to miss out on. I feel drawn to buy but I know thats just an emotional feeling and not based on sound logic. I wonder if that means the market players are trying to draw in the retail buyers so they can sell.

 

[clester]

Okay, now we're talking. Things are finally getting interesting. I will get a 'buy' signal when we get an RSI below 30 and price is below the previous low. Even if I don't get that perfect signal I will be looking to buy if we can get the 30 RSI. My system says buy no more that 50% while in a bear market but I will be tempted to buy more than that if we get that perfect signal.

 

[Cactus]

The C & S Funds look like they still have a ways to go yet. The I Fund is the closest to your target and it's testing it's low now, but I don't think I'd risk entering the I Fund with what's going on around the world now. :worried:

 

[clester]

The C & S Funds look like they still have a ways to go yet. The I Fund is the closest to your target and it's testing it's low now, but I don't think I'd risk entering the I Fund with what's going on around the world now. :worried:

The rebound yesterday and the follow through this morning suggest you are right. It will be a while. Looks like it could be into October. I was hoping for a big whoosh down. The I fund got to 31 or so RSI yesterday but close well above 30. It did make a lower low too. So, it looks interesting. If I were to buy I fund it would be a 50% trade.

 

[clester]

Things are getting interesting again. I would, ideally, like to see a lower low on price and the RSI to stay above its low to create a divergence. Meaning price is going down while RSI is going up. The S fund is getting close to its low at RSI of 32. C fund is not as close to its low and RSI of 37. I fund is near its low at RSI of 34.

So, it seems like we are getting close to a buying opportunity. I hope my perfect conditions come about. If so, I will buy. My system says only buy 50% due to being in a bear market. Its generally better to wait for some kind of bounce before jumping in. Catching a falling knife can hurt!

 

[clester]

Things are getting interesting again. I would, ideally, like to see a lower low on price and the RSI to stay above its low to create a divergence. Meaning price is going down while RSI is going up. The S fund is getting close to its low at RSI of 32. C fund is not as close to its low and RSI of 37. I fund is near its low at RSI of 34.

So, it seems like we are getting close to a buying opportunity. I hope my perfect conditions come about. If so, I will buy. My system says only buy 50% due to being in a bear market. Its generally better to wait for some kind of bounce before jumping in. Catching a falling knife can hurt!

I think the S fund will be the leader from now on. It made a lower low and RSI is below 30. All I need is a bounce to confirm a higher low on the RSI. The C and I funds need to head a little lower. In any case, a buy is coming to us soon. Again, we're in a bear market so I will only bet 50%.

 

[clester]

I think the S fund will be the leader from now on. It made a lower low and RSI is below 30. All I need is a bounce to confirm a higher low on the RSI. The C and I funds need to head a little lower. In any case, a buy is coming to us soon. Again, we're in a bear market so I will only bet 50%.

Today is very tempting to buy 50% S fund. It has met all my requirements except that I would like the bounce to be more before I jump in. But today is the day to get in based on the TSP silly 2 trade rule.

 

[clester]

Today is very tempting to buy 50% S fund. It has met all my requirements except that I would like the bounce to be more before I jump in. But today is the day to get in based on the TSP silly 2 trade rule.

bought 50% S fund

 

[clester]

bought 50% S fund

I expect us to climb up to test the 50 DMA again if this trade works. From there? IDK but its still going to be rocky IMO thats why only the 50% buy. We are in a bear market according to my system when the 50 dma is below the 200 dma.

 

[felixthecat]

Yep saw the 50 day dma. One of the reason for taking a chance here. Looks like we could move up to that resistance point. Heck...we have had a very good double digit pullback from the highs. Makes me feel a bit more confident that the bears take a break. There is some risk of course...but I like the buy here at lower levels.

 

[clester]

I expect us to climb up to test the 50 DMA again if this trade works. From there? IDK but its still going to be rocky IMO thats why only the 50% buy. We are in a bear market according to my system when the 50 dma is below the 200 dma.

System has worked so far. Next stop should be the 50 dma for a retest. I expect some sideways from there for a few weeks. Could be into December before we bust through that 50 dma for good. Staying cautious for now.

 

[clester]

System has worked so far. Next stop should be the 50 dma for a retest. I expect some sideways from there for a few weeks. Could be into December before we bust through that 50 dma for good. Staying cautious for now.

A test of the 50 dma is coming up fast! C fund is much closer than S but both are only a percent or so away. Thinking of selling that test and seeing what happens. I have all my trades available.

 

[clester]

A test of the 50 dma is coming up fast! C fund is much closer than S but both are only a percent or so away. Thinking of selling that test and seeing what happens. I have all my trades available.

Well, here we are. The C fund is testing its 50 dma. The S fund is still well below it though. Lets see how it plays out. If the C fund clears the 50 dma the next target is the 200 dma. If it fails we'll probably head lower. My guess is that when the S fund reaches the 50 dma we'll have a pull back. Remember, we are still in a bear market. Looks a lot like 2011 though. Maybe a repeat?

 

[Cactus]

Looks like neither the C Fund or I Fund could get past the 50 DMA today. Maybe tomorrow or Friday, but then you have to ask yourself if that's only pre-holiday action followed by a drop on Tuesday. :suspicious:

 

[Mcqlives]

Looks like neither the C Fund or I Fund could get past the 50 DMA today. Maybe tomorrow or Friday, but then you have to ask yourself if that's only pre-holiday action followed by a drop on Tuesday. :suspicious:

Your drop on Tuesday is very possible, especially if China trading resumes downward on Monday. As for the 50 dma....I'm not putting much reliance on it as an indicator (or the 200 for that matter) since the FED is playing QE again.