clester
Well-known member
The best thing is to do your own research and find a strategy that fits you. Following others always got me screwed up and pissed off.
C fund hit the 200 dma and last 2 times bounced there. Let's hope it does again
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clester's Account Talk
- Thread starter clester
- Start date
C fund hit the 200 dma and last 2 times bounced there. Let's hope it does again
HoustonJoe
New member
I record the results from each day's results for F,G,S,C, I into an Excel spreadsheet. It's listed by week, by month. It allows me to look back and see when the last time the shares were in the range. No tools and the only site is the TSP.gov and TSPtalk.
Lakebound
Member
Thanks. That's all I was asking, not looking to follow you per se but what tools you use.
Frank
Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk
jkenjohnson
Active member
Is that what they call a death cross?
HoustonJoe
New member
Hey no worries. I'd like to post more and am just now getting more time where I can. I'm learning lots of techniques and methods. I think I should have been in here years ago.
I'd settle for 3 trades a month.
clester
Well-known member
The markets seem to have changed tone. The buying the dips attitude has faded. The S fund is in a downtrend. The C fund seems to be following. In the past a dip below the 200 DMA was bought. Now, I'm not sure it will.
The S&P 50 DMA is descending as the 200 DMA is rising and they will meet soon if this market continues as it is (The dreaded death cross or bear market). Maybe its time to sit out until the wash out that happens a lot in late summer until October. It will at least be volatile in coming weeks and we can't trade enough to take advantage of that.
My system has me 50% in stocks in a bull market. We are still there for now but I am probably selling 50% today. Hoping for a late day rally and buying of the dip but skeptical.
The S&P 50 DMA is descending as the 200 DMA is rising and they will meet soon if this market continues as it is (The dreaded death cross or bear market). Maybe its time to sit out until the wash out that happens a lot in late summer until October. It will at least be volatile in coming weeks and we can't trade enough to take advantage of that.
My system has me 50% in stocks in a bull market. We are still there for now but I am probably selling 50% today. Hoping for a late day rally and buying of the dip but skeptical.
clester
Well-known member
Well, hope was right! Big turnaround. Glad it worked out.
wonder if it is a good idea to move half to G today. hedge the bets about the market going up tomorrow Friday. it certainly is going down today.
clester
Well-known member
My system has me moving to 50% G because we are below the 50 DMA. There is some uncertainty in the markets right now. As I said before, the 50 is descending and the 200 is climbing. They could converge and thus become a bear market. We are also in the seasonal period where markets get volatile. I think its just to hard to figure out the direction. Thats why my system uses the 50% rule. Most folks don't like that but it is basically a hedge. So, it depends on whether you're felling lucky or not, i guess.
Khotso
Active member
Point of Clarification/Warning: if you make a 1% move as one of your first 2 monthly IFTs, it does count against your monthly IFTs and you will consequently only have 1 or none left for the month! Be careful!!!!! Take it from one who knows! Only after you've exhausted your 2 monthly IFTs can you use the <1% rounding IFT without consequences!
clester
Well-known member
Markets are in a vulnerable spot. We have downtrends in stock funds but they are still in a bull market. We really aren't that far from having the 50 dma cross below the 200 dma which is a bear market in my system. I'll stay in 50% unless we get a few closes below the 200 dma which will also pull those moving averages closer. Time for caution until October or November imo. We will probably get that big pull back everyone wants.
clester
Well-known member
There should be a bit signal soon. RSI is at 33 and below 30 is a buy for C fund. Actually, a bounce above 30 after hitting below 30 or a 20 print is the requirement for my system
clester
Well-known member
Getting very close to at least a short term buying opportunity. RSI on S&P is just above 30 at this writing. A dip below and then a bounce back up will do it. Too bad I'm outta trades until next month. Maybe I'll still get a chance to buy. When we bounce I would expect a climb back up to the 200 dma and from there we'll have a big resistance level.
clester
Well-known member
Days like this is what my system was made for. It basically hedges my bets against a huge drop while in a bull market. The bias is up in a bull market so I keep exposure. Basically, I can claim victory no matter which direction the market goes which helps me psychologically. I used to get so panicky. Now I have an opportunity to buy at lower prices. If I had a trade left I would be tempted today except that I never buy a falling knife. I would need to see a bounce first. I should get that by September 1st
felixthecat
Member
I like your post. Falling knife...been there and done it...it is not pretty...and oh yes...it can indeed get worse.
clester
Well-known member
And it has! Btw, s&p at RSI of 20 is almost unheard of. I think I would buy there even without a bounce. Still a way to go to get there though.
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