clester's Account Talk

[Mcqlives]

Agreed...hopefully the worst is over this morning and we close the day near even in C and S.

Or.....NOT!!!

 

[clester]

I'm considering a morto S fund because of its outperformance lately and the C funds drop below it 50 dma. S fund is still over its 50dma

If we can hold or go up today maybe the market can get going up. I really don't want to trade from C to S unless there is a significant outperformance. I might toward the end of the month if I don't use all my trades. I may need to sell 50% in the next day or two so, I could do it then. I really expect a rally but I will go with my system.

 

[clester]

If we can hold or go up today maybe the market can get going up. I really don't want to trade from C to S unless there is a significant outperformance. I might toward the end of the month if I don't use all my trades. I may need to sell 50% in the next day or two so, I could do it then. I really expect a rally but I will go with my system.

The holding idea failed. Now comes the question of when to sell. This is 2 days below the 50 dma which is close to a sell but the RSI is getting close to 30 again which is a buy. So...I think I need to give the bull market the benefit of the doubt for now.

s fund has taken a big dump down to its 200dma which is a possible place to buy when it bounces. Glad I didn't move there yesterday.

I fund is at support too but it's in a bear market. Be careful. F fund is doing well but it's near resistance.

It appears to be Oil that's spooking market. I don't get it exept that those speculative markets are finally bursting. That's good Imo. except that oil stocks make up about 15% of the S&P down from about 25%

 

[pmaloney]

I am holding with 25% C and 25% S because I think everyone has been surprised by the rapid down and primarily we are looking at uncertainty in oil and Europe. I am not sure how long I want to take punishment because I remember towards the end of last January we had a big dip because of Europe, Russia, ISIS and other Macro issues. Now we have Europe questionable, Oil as an uncertainty and Saudi Arabia saying that they will continue to pump oil the day after ISIS attacked the Saudi border for the first time.

The only reason I am still in was that I was hanging tough in October but things were looking bad and I was going on a trip so I figured that I wouldn't be able to watch the market and I went to G. That was the exact bottom and we began the V rise up capturing more than I had lost but I had used up my IFTs.

With Oil being a real uncertainty I we may not be able to have a quick V up but as you point out Oil is only 15% of S&P so after the scare the rest of the S&P should rebound and come back strong if we have good earnings.

Good luck!

 

[clester]

I am holding with 25% C and 25% S because I think everyone has been surprised by the rapid down and primarily we are looking at uncertainty in oil and Europe. I am not sure how long I want to take punishment because I remember towards the end of last January we had a big dip because of Europe, Russia, ISIS and other Macro issues. Now we have Europe questionable, Oil as an uncertainty and Saudi Arabia saying that they will continue to pump oil the day after ISIS attacked the Saudi border for the first time.

The only reason I am still in was that I was hanging tough in October but things were looking bad and I was going on a trip so I figured that I wouldn't be able to watch the market and I went to G. That was the exact bottom and we began the V rise up capturing more than I had lost but I had used up my IFTs.

With Oil being a real uncertainty I we may not be able to have a quick V up but as you point out Oil is only 15% of S&P so after the scare the rest of the S&P should rebound and come back strong if we have good earnings.

Good luck!

I'm feeling like things are getting a little panicky. We're not down that much either. I feel like today may have been the bottom.

 

[ravensfan]

I'm feeling like things are getting a little panicky. We're not down that much either. I feel like today may have been the bottom.

Here's to hoping there is still some magic in that crystal ball of yours. Five days down is quite enough...

 

[pmaloney]

I'm feeling lucky and inspired. Enough down and let's rise up!

 

[amoeba]

...Saudi Arabia saying that they will continue to pump oil...
Good luck!

That's far more certain to continue for quite awhile than not. What is more uncertain is where oil will bottom out in this glut. IMO it can't be too much more....maybe another 20% (to $40/bbl). Europe is burnt toast. It's hurting all equities but alls you can do is just say no to the I-fund. At least their crappy economics are helping our F-fund.

 

[clester]

I'm feeling like things are getting a little panicky. We're not down that much either. I feel like today may have been the bottom.

Boom! Let's get a good close and a follow through. We need to close above the 50dma for me to feel comfortable.

 

[clester]

Boom! Let's get a good close and a follow through. We need to close above the 50dma for me to feel comfortable.

Boom again! This bull market just won't quit. Safely above the 50 dma now. Next target for resistance is the last high. I think we'll get through that and keep going up to a RSI of 70. Longer term I think we continue a zig zag up through about April then we digest for the summer.

 

[Cactus]

Yep, punched right through the 50 & 20 DMA like a knife through butter just like it did in December.

Now that we recognize the pattern will it work next time. I'm suspicious.

 

[ravensfan]

Boom again! This bull market just won't quit. Safely above the 50 dma now. Next target for resistance is the last high. I think we'll get through that and keep going up to a RSI of 70. Longer term I think we continue a zig zag up through about April then we digest for the summer.

Great call clester! Looks like that crystal ball still has some magic after all!!!

 

[clester]

Boom again! This bull market just won't quit. Safely above the 50 dma now. Next target for resistance is the last high. I think we'll get through that and keep going up to a RSI of 70. Longer term I think we continue a zig zag up through about April then we digest for the summer.

All system go!

 

[pmaloney]

What a great day! Glad to hear you are feeling positive and hoping for another great day to end tomorrow.

 

[clester]

It's not unusual to retest the 50 dma after getting through. If it doesn't hold then we may have some issues. But for now My system is 100% buy.

 

[clester]

It's not unusual to retest the 50 dma after getting through. If it doesn't hold then we may have some issues. But for now My system is 100% buy.

So far a successful test of the 50 dma. Almost perfect as we dipped below it and then buyers came in. Hopefully we can close above it.

 

[clester]

So far a successful test of the 50 dma. Almost perfect as we dipped below it and then buyers came in. Hopefully we can close above it.

Got the close above the 50 dma. We need to stay above it Monday but things are still a go!

 

[pmaloney]

Sounds good. Hopefully we will have good news (earnings and politics) next week. Have a good weekend!

 

[clester]

Sounds good. Hopefully we will have good news (earnings and politics) next week. Have a good weekend!

I'm optimistic! It's Miller time! And nfl playoffs weekend.

 

[clester]

So far not a good start of the week. We are below the 50 dma but as long as we stay above the recent low about 2002 then we are still in an uptrend shorterm. Looks like oil hurting us again. I like it when we start off lower and then climb back through the day. Let's hope that's the playbook today..