Carnac's Corner

[robo]

According to this the Fed Reserve is really this powerful. Are there any charts out that track what the Fed does.

No reporting M3. The Fed caused this and now they have to fix it.

First they took rates to low = Housing Bubble

Then they took rates to high = Housing slow-down

They will eat crow next year and lower rates. Now they are printing big time money M3 to prevent the housing crash and a recession.

I think the Fed will get it right and sometime next year we could hit 1550 S&P 500. However, I think we will get some selling pressure first before we get the next big leg up.

The Fed should have stopped around 4% to 4.5% and things would have been ok.

Check your email.


Isn't it great when you can print all the money you want?

 

[robo]

Friday, November 24, 2006

NQ pulls back at 1829.25, right under NDX 1825. Seems like it was a sell signal. Not quite 1830, but we will take it as a high. Twenty minutes to go before the early close. I can't imagine anyone wanting to be long over the weekend, but there has been lots of hedging with those cheap, cheap puts. If this market sells on Monday, those carefree put sellers could be in for a surprise.



I might get that old NQ 1830 target after all. I had given up on that one at NDX 1821 with the VIX double bottom, but 1825 seems more in order now.
New highs at 1828.50, 30 mn RSI showing a clear bearish divergence, but we are used to that. Smells like short covering more than anything, but many hedgies were obviously waiting for NQ monthly R2 near 1831.50.
We are pulling back from that new high as I type. NQ support is 1826. Below that, 1824.25. Oil is still above 60. A falling dollar will be supportive of higher oil prices as OPEC does everything they can to make up for the currency loss since they get paid in dollars.



The buyers come in as if nothing happened and pretty much close the gap. We will see what happens now. Foreign money is getting out of Dodge and US investors are left to their own devices. So far, any bad news for them is a buying opportunity. It's a little silly, especially before any retail sales report, but that's the pattern.

Keep an eye on financials, with the BIX still stuck under its 50 day moving average at 396.30. Glancing over some investing web sites, I notice a complete lack of fear or concern. Almost no volatility whatsoever with the VIX barely jumping above its 10 day ema. 11.40 is the top of the envelope, traders were hoping for at least that, but no such luck. They are selling puts with absolutely no premium as if they will never get assigned.
You know this is post-turkey day when oil is above 60, the dollar is falling apart and they keep buying stocks the minute the ticker goes red. Shorts must be pulling their hairs out or just throwing in the towel at this point, which of course from a contrarian standpoint is trouble.
The real Fed action could now be in terms of supporting the greenback and not lowering rates, contrary to what many are thinking. They are in a very tight spot.

http://aheadofthenews.com/

 

[robo]

What a run away train, Go Birchtree!


Saturday, November 25, 2006

As we move forward with some possible volatility for stocks, always keep in mind the year to date index growth figures. The COMP closed 2005 at 2205 and opened at 2216. That would mean +10% for 2006 would put us above 2425 (we are now almost +12%). The area between 2380 and 2400 better be supportive if we are to maintain double digit appreciation this year.

The bear camp will point out that S&P earnings growth was 8.5%, which could endanger the double digit prospects. SPX is currently up 12% for the year. NDX closed Friday at +10% (that lag with the broader market is an ongoing bearish story which bulls need to correct quickly: blame the semis). Nevertheless, just looking at the overbought conditions of the current rally can make one forget the larger picture.


http://aheadofthenews.com/index.html


Once the year closes, however, there will be little support for stocks and I expect January to be particularly bearish if we do not alleviate the present euphoric conditions in December. Investor bull/bear ratio is now at trend line resistance:

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Wal-Mart Stores Inc. reported surprisingly weak November sales on Saturday, even as U.S. bargain-hunters jammed stores in search of gifts at the start of the crucial holiday shopping season.

Wal-Mart, the world's biggest retailer, sounded a cautious note for retailers as they began a second day of Thanksgiving weekend sales with deep discounts and early bird specials on items ranging from cashmere sweaters to plasma televisions.

After the initial excitement over Friday's bargain hunter numbers, reality could set in. This kind of yoyo news is why we have to rely on charts at this point and macro events such as foreign US asset liquidation. A currency crisis is never a light development.

 

[robo]

Traders will be watching the 1390 support, if it fails we could see some program selling. We should get a boune if the dippers come too the rescue!



Comments below from Aheadofthenews.com

Monday, November 27, 2006

Bulls are getting hit hard. Watch ES 1391/1392 support area, confluence weekly S2 and 20 DMA. SMH (semis) also has key support at 34.85.



YM (DOW futures) bears some scrutiny. Now trading below its 10 DMA, has multi-month trend line support around 12225/12230. Its 20 DMA is a little lower at 12215.



Watch the NQ (NDX futures) 30 mn channel with trend line support around 1811/1812.

http://aheadofthenews.com/index.html

 

[robo]

Some Market Comments:


The S&P 500 ended its 94-day streak without a 1% decline from the prior day's close.


WOW, what a run! Dippers couldn't keep it up today.


Maybe the worst-breadth day since May 17th.


I'll be watching Europe and Japan to see how they take all this. Looks like they could be doing some of the selling, before our dollar goes any lower.

Plenty of support on the way down.

Caution the next few days so we can find support.

Todays close at 1381 S&P 500 will take some TA's to netural.

If we go down any more plenty of support around 1350 area.

One day does not make a trend!!!!

Mark Young had the `Smart Money' Pollees 0% Bullish and 100% Bearish and the Amateur Trader Pollees are 60% Bullish and 40% Bearish.


Oddball and Football are SHORT for now.

 

[robo]

Monday, November 27, 2006

The markets are finding support at ES (SPX future) 61.8% November (1383). Still 30 mns to go, but that's what it looks like.
This is the kind of day when you look at stocks and realize how expensive they are.

QM (oil) has resistance at 60.425, weekly R1. Equity bulls need a pullback in oil soon SMH (semis) now at confluence 20 and 200 dma. An absolute must hold for the tech sector. Amazing how we went from one bullish extreme to a day like today. The very low VIX was the warning, don't ever let anyone tell you otherwise.

http://aheadofthenews.com/

 

[robo]

Some Comments from a TA:


The markets have had their momentum broken significantly, but it remains to be seen if this will just be a buying opportunity. It is significant that the OEX is down 1.22%. Just eyeballing the chart, it doesn't look like we have had that kind of down day in the S&P 100 big caps since this multi-month rally started. That could indicate that institutions are starting to join in on the selling.

The exits may get crowded soon. There is no "news" that should cause this sell-off other than profit-taking and the falling dollar which indicates a lack of confidence in US investment vehicles. I am inclined to give the markets another day to determine if they are "broken".

 

[robo]

CNBC talking heads trying to figure out why the stock market sold-off.

Short-term investors don't care! PROFIT TAKING: They will be back buying again soon.

Ok, I just got the reason. The economy is much stronger then we thought and the Fed will increase rates again.

The Fed thing will just not go away. OH BOY!

Another take: The dollar decline will cause the Fed to increase rates to save the dollar.

One more take: China is going to dump dollars. So, now we know.

One more, It's housing! No soft-landing and yes another Fed increase.

Another guy says Fed cuts coming and the S&P going to 1600.

The Bull/Bear debate heats up again and the Talking Heads will be on CNBC daily.


This is why I sell when I'm long, read below!!!!!!

Our mission is simple: We want to maximize our Thrift Savings Plan retirement accounts and help others along the way.
We do this by allocating our TSP assets into the funds which have the highest probability for capital preservation and greatest possibility for increased returns.

""capital preservation my friends""

Comments welcome, someone has to keep this thread going. Don't get me wrong I'm a dipper also. I'm just waiting for a bigger dip. I was hoping to go long by Thursday if this thing settles down.

Kudlow just said the DOW is going to 20,000, the Greatest story never told!

 

[Birchtree]

I bought my cookies today on the way down - may be forced to buy some more tomorrow if necessary. This wall of worry is just what the good doctor ordered to scare everyone away from the bull market. It's a classic set up to fake the crowd.

 

[robo]

I bought my cookies today on the way down - may be forced to buy some more tomorrow if necessary. This wall of worry is just what the good doctor ordered to scare everyone away from the bull market. It's a classic set up to fake the crowd.

I'm also a buyer, sold USO today. Bought at 50.91 and sold at 52.22 around 2.5% gain. Not big money, but I wanted the funds to buy stocks after this pull-back. Looking for deals like you! I'm going to keep checking the Hotline to see what the Top Ten are thinking. Some were calling for this pullback and some were neutral. Most are still Bullish as you know. One day does not make a Trend!


http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=uso

 

[robo]

I just have to watch Cramer Tonight. NOT SOMETHING I NORMALLY DO. His point so Far, PIGS GET
SLAUGHTERED!!!!

HE IS TALKING ABOUT HOW TO MAKE MONEY OFF THE WEAK DOLLAR. I'M ALL EARS!

OK, I said I was going to keep my Big Post Shut and do more lurking. So I'm out-of-here.

I will give Cramer another 15 min or so. He just gave a most excellent stock tip.

As titian3d would say, BOOYAH! BOOYAH! BOOYAH! To the moon baby!

We need a new Big Time Bear to take over this Tread. I'm way to Bullish for this kinda talk. However, we need more Bears on the Board to keep us on our toes so I'll keep it going for now.

 

[robo]

MARKET COMMENT

November 27, 2006



For the past few weeks we’ve been suggesting that a correction should come, but what would be the cause and when? WMT’s poor same store sales figures were fingered as “a” culprit, but other retailers reported healthy sales. I’d pin the reason for today’s sell-off on the rise in currencies [falling dollar], precious metals and commodities.

As readers of this column know we’ve been highlighting what we chose to call the “usual suspects”: energy, bonds, the dollar and precious metals, homebuilder’s and consumer sectors to name a few as the potential source of trouble. Many times corrections come from left field or unusual events particularly when equity markets are overbought. What’s interpreted as poor WMT sales data isn’t one of them frankly. No, the dollar’s condition stands out today. Why? Because precious metals markets soared, bonds were flat and no other sector was spared from selling.

http://www.etfdigest.com/daveDaily.php

 

[Birchtree]

I think Griffin may be the new jealous bear in the wood pile. That's OK.

I've got some of my list prepared for tomorrow's purchases.

 

[robo]

Monday, November 27, 2006

Tough day for bulls when you realize ES lost almost half of its November gains in a single day. Support was clear at 1383, 61.8% for the month and bulls know what they need to hold. The VIX last week could not have screamed any louder and I guess someone finally heard, especially when coupled with those low equity pc ratio numbers. The selling actually started the day of Thanksgiving in Europe and Asia before any retail sales numbers came out. In other words, they were liquidating all US assets on the fall of the dollar. We had our silly little bounce on Friday, but today was the day of reckoning.

It's hard to say where we go from here, but my guess is many funds will use rallies to book more profits. Be prepared to do the same. We should bounce out of this, but resistance above could be pretty firm, namely SPX 1400 and NDX 1800. I am noting a lot of puts at QQQQ 43/44 and that could be supportive at some point, if not very soon. Just don't fall in love with anything.

We are entering a better trading zone with hopefully higher volatility and more technical plays as opposed to plain "buy any dips". I hope new traders do not think the past three months were the norm.

http://aheadofthenews.com/2006/11/december-gold-came-within-70-cents-of.html

 

[robo]

THE TECHNICAL TRADER
By Harry Boxer

Monday November 27, 2006 DOWNSIDE THRUST...BREAKING THE BACK OF THE TREND?
By Harry Boxer, The Technical Trader (www.thetechtrader.com)

The markets experienced a very negative session to start the week and closed at the lows for the day going away. The day started out with a gap down and a 10-minute brief bounce, but that was about it. A very sharp sell-off ensued, taking the NDX and S&P through important short-term support, and the rest of the day was spent stair-stepping lower. Over the last couple hours they did actually stabilize, but again slipped lower in the last 10-15 minutes, as they rolled over and closed at the low for the day.

The Dow was down more than 158, the S&P 500 down 19, and the NDX more than 40 1/3. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) was down 11.50.

The technicals confirmed the negative session with a 27 to 6 negative ratio on advance-declines on New York and about a 25 to 6 ratio on New York. Up/down volume was worse, with 1.4 billion down and 180 million on New York, a negative ratio of about 8 to 1. Nasdaq, with 1.8 billion on the downside and only 135 million on the upside, had a very strong negative ratio of nearly 14 to 1.

TheTechTrader.com board obviously was mostly negative. Loss leaders included E-Future Information (EFUT) down 2.43, NVE Corp. (NVEC) 2.42, Sigma Designs (SIGM) 1.82, Gmarket (GMKT) 1.49, Fuel Tech (FTEK) 1.28, Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) 1.08, Chindex (CHDX) 1.02, and Qiao Xing Universal Telephone (XING) down 1.11 as well.

On the plus side, there was very little to speak of. SVI, one of our portfolio positions, did gain 35 cents today in anticipation of its name changed to Jamba Juice and listing on Nasdaq as of this coming Wednesday. FTGX was up 54 cent and ASIA up 20 cents. The GLD gold ETF did manage to eke out a 17 cent gain today as well.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the day was an important session and we may have gotten the downside thrust that broke the back of the trend, certainly the back of the last 3-week trend. Next downside support at 1760 NDX and 1375 S&P will be monitored closely. Upside resistance is at 1800-05 NDX and 1390-95 on the S&P 500.

Good trading!

Harry

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/BOXER.html

 

[robo]

Wall Street: It's Gut Check Time. Oil & Commodities: Saudis Concerned About U.S. Stockpiles. Stocks: Strange Brew Of Indicators.

by Dr Joe Duarte
November 27, 2006

Gut Check Time

Geopolitics And A Falling Dollar

Investors will have to look deep inside their financial souls and their accounts to decide whether the recent rally has made them enough money, and whether it's time to pack it in for the year.

If the guys with the largest bucks decide to head for the exit, it could be an ugly end to the nice run that started in July. Yet, the jury is still out on whether sellers will finally overwhelm buyers.

Ony one thing is certain. There is plenty to worry about. And on Wall Street a big wall of worry often means that prices are headed higher.

Baghdad has fallen off the edge of Chaos and into disorder as sectarian violence is at record levels and at least one attack against a U.S. military installation was reported over the weekend.

In Oaxaca, Mexico, police clashed with demonstrators, while in Caracas, Venezuela, president Hugo Chavez and leading opposition candidate, Manuel Rosales, held contrasting, but equally poignant rallies.

Meanwhile, the case of the KGB spy that was poisoned by radiation has been keeping the Drudge Report busy all holiday weekend.

From an investment standpoint, though, all roads seem to be leading to a weaker U.S. Dollar, rising gold, industrial metal prices, while some bet on the possibility of lower interest rates and move into U.S. Treasury bonds.

When you throw in the rising uncertainty, life, and hte investment climate, suddenly becomes very interesting.


http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/DUARTE.html

 

[mlk_man]

Robo, can you please start another thead. Everytime I see a post here I wanna scratch my jack---............

Before this gets deleted because I said jack---, even though I assume everyone here is at least 18, I was talking about my jackasss, which is sort of like a donkey............ On some boards it is also a magician......

 

[robo]

Robo, can you please start another thead. Everytime I see a post here I wanna scratch my ass............

Before this gets deleted because I said ass, even though I assume everyone here is at least 18, I was talking about my jackasss, which is sort of like a donkey............ On some boards it is also a magician......

Mlk_man,

Sounds good to me. How about Bear Cave since we have Bull Pen.

Spaf,

Could you move the recent stuff and maybe we will get some Bears back to Duke it out with Birchtree. Most Bears are gone these days after a four month rally! Or just change the name if it's to much trouble, thanks! That we can keep the Bears and Bulls apart. HA!

Hows that Mlk_man? We could banish Bad News Bears to the Cave, and not allow them to post in any other threads, when they do too much GROWLING at other members.

 

[Spaf]

Robo,

You guys can start a new thread any time you want.

You will have to make posts and cut and paste. If you run out of time I'll help you. I can move stuff to a different forum, but not a thead, I don't think.

Tip: Make post #1 as [reserved] useful for pictures and links.

Spaf

 

[Birchtree]

Hey Harvey,

We got drama. But I'm remaining polite.

Dennis