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Carnac's Corner
- Thread starter The_Technician
- Start date
FundSurfer
Well-known member
Wow, that'll teach me to spend the day travelling....Took almost an hour to read everything.
That's right, he was not banned. Maybe he can just take some time to do some self-evaluation. He is obviously passionate about the market and the board needs that, but he lacked delivery skills. I would welcome him back were he to have an epiphany (A comprehension or perception of reality by means of a sudden intuitive realization). Is that too much to ask?
Oh, and FundSurfer - in case you missed it: Birchtree is bullish.
robo
Well-known member
In my opinion DOW 13,000 will not be seen until 2007. It could get close, but no cigar. However, I thought around 1350 in the S&P would be the high for 2006. Hope you got the BULL PAPER. The smells of Manure!!!! It's always more fun to be a Bull then a Bear.
Sticking with my trading range for the rest of the year 1350 to 1400. Give me a +/- 1/2 percent. Again, this is my opinion based on the data I read about the Market going forward.
The trend remains up, so enjoy the ride. The Market will be nervous going into 2007. Making trades in my Brokerage account, mostly short-term long postions. On occasion, still making short-term moves in the I and the S with 20% of funds. No 100% moves at these prices, but always looking for good setups. Remember, I'm a very conservative investor in my 50's...
Currently 100% G Fund.
Good investing /Trading!
ATCJeff
Well-known member
robo
Well-known member
Sunday, November 19, 2006
Market Top at Hand
It's clear that this stock market rally has gone far beyond reasonable now. We are at a significant top and about to head down into the 4-year cycle low.
There are two long term cycles which have traditionally duked it out, but usually not in the same year. This year, however, as in 1994, they are working against each other. The 39-month cycle, which bottomed in the June-July period, has been winning against the downward pressure of the 4-year cycle. That 39-month cycle has been pushing stocks higher and higher to a series of all-time new highs.
Does this mean the 4-year cycle will not be able to produce a tradable low? Well, anything is possible, but the 4-year is an extremely regular cycle and in that last analog year of 1994, the second cycle low of year, in December, did eventually produce a lower low in many stock market indices. If that cycle comes in at the same time it did in 1994, we should expect it in December. What that means is that the market could have a very large and very fast drop in the near future. Some folks would call it a "crash", but we prefer the term, "selling opportunity".
Now, if the market holds up into December, the drop might only last a week or so. The pain for buy-and-hold investors should be over quickly. Like 1987.
http://marketclues.blogspot.com/
Market Top at Hand
It's clear that this stock market rally has gone far beyond reasonable now. We are at a significant top and about to head down into the 4-year cycle low.
There are two long term cycles which have traditionally duked it out, but usually not in the same year. This year, however, as in 1994, they are working against each other. The 39-month cycle, which bottomed in the June-July period, has been winning against the downward pressure of the 4-year cycle. That 39-month cycle has been pushing stocks higher and higher to a series of all-time new highs.
Does this mean the 4-year cycle will not be able to produce a tradable low? Well, anything is possible, but the 4-year is an extremely regular cycle and in that last analog year of 1994, the second cycle low of year, in December, did eventually produce a lower low in many stock market indices. If that cycle comes in at the same time it did in 1994, we should expect it in December. What that means is that the market could have a very large and very fast drop in the near future. Some folks would call it a "crash", but we prefer the term, "selling opportunity".
Now, if the market holds up into December, the drop might only last a week or so. The pain for buy-and-hold investors should be over quickly. Like 1987.
http://marketclues.blogspot.com/
robo
Well-known member
Two opinions on the four year cycle low from two pretty sharp TA's. One above yes, and Carl thinks it's over. Do we still have one coming, or is it over? Wish I knew.
4-Year Cycle Rules
by Carl Swenlin
For quite a while I have been saying that the rally that began in July has been driven by persistent bearishness among investors. I still think this was a significant element, and it was encouraged by a strong belief that a major decline would be occurring in October in conjunction with the long-awaited 4-Year Cycle trough. Unfortunately for the bears, it appears that the 4-Year Cycle trough arrived early and without much fanfare (because the price decline into the cycle low was not very impressive).
On our first chart we can see that the Cycle trough occurred after a mere 7.5% decline and appeared in the form of a double bottom in June and July.
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/061117_4yr.html
4-Year Cycle Rules
by Carl Swenlin
For quite a while I have been saying that the rally that began in July has been driven by persistent bearishness among investors. I still think this was a significant element, and it was encouraged by a strong belief that a major decline would be occurring in October in conjunction with the long-awaited 4-Year Cycle trough. Unfortunately for the bears, it appears that the 4-Year Cycle trough arrived early and without much fanfare (because the price decline into the cycle low was not very impressive).
On our first chart we can see that the Cycle trough occurred after a mere 7.5% decline and appeared in the form of a double bottom in June and July.
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/061117_4yr.html
robo
Well-known member
mlk_man,
Yeah, should have, but I wanted to show the two articles together. Not many posting here these days so I picked this thread. More bulls then bears and it seems no end to this run away train.
robo
Well-known member
Monday, November 20, 2006
A trader's day, once again. Distribution at the open is becoming the norm as many investors are gradually booking profits on rallies. I don't think there really is a lot of new money jumping in here, but many traders are working the seasonal push into Thanksgiving. Shorts are weary of holding overnight and they invariably cover into the close. It's choppy and toppy, but bulls are hoping for one more spark to ignite some buy stops above resistance. They will be met with profit taking at every turn until we get a decent pullback.
The dipsters are still around, but it looks like the markets will be closing below last weeks highs. The QQQQ hit of 44.48 looks very compelling as a high for now.
http://aheadofthenews.com/index.html
Very bearish reversal at highs. Looks like that choppy rise was just enough to catch a few suckers and now they are booking profits. One would be a fool to not start cashing those chips. NDX is back below 1800 and if that R holds, we will get the 10 DMA test shortly. Still the big retail numbers tomorrow, so trail those stops. The VIX hit a low of 9.91 and that seems to have triggered some pretty heavy sell programs. This distribution is getting to be a daily affair.
A trader's day, once again. Distribution at the open is becoming the norm as many investors are gradually booking profits on rallies. I don't think there really is a lot of new money jumping in here, but many traders are working the seasonal push into Thanksgiving. Shorts are weary of holding overnight and they invariably cover into the close. It's choppy and toppy, but bulls are hoping for one more spark to ignite some buy stops above resistance. They will be met with profit taking at every turn until we get a decent pullback.
The dipsters are still around, but it looks like the markets will be closing below last weeks highs. The QQQQ hit of 44.48 looks very compelling as a high for now.
http://aheadofthenews.com/index.html
Very bearish reversal at highs. Looks like that choppy rise was just enough to catch a few suckers and now they are booking profits. One would be a fool to not start cashing those chips. NDX is back below 1800 and if that R holds, we will get the 10 DMA test shortly. Still the big retail numbers tomorrow, so trail those stops. The VIX hit a low of 9.91 and that seems to have triggered some pretty heavy sell programs. This distribution is getting to be a daily affair.
robo
Well-known member
Monday, November 20, 2006
Of Basket Cases Which Lead
Japan's stock market is the basket case of the world when it comes to stocks, having formed a peak in 1990 and trending lower ever since, but it has one great characteristic which makes it something to watch. That something is its ability to lead the rest of the markets around the world.
The runup to the peak in 1990 was just a sneak preview of the US stock bubble of the 'Nineties, in fact. More recently, the Nikkei Index peaked in April and tumbled a full month ahead of the US market, then bottomed in June, a month ahead of the US. More recently, it had been rebounding off that June low. That is, it had been until the 26th of October; coincidentally or not, that was the exact day when insiders in the major US stock index started heavily selling the market. Since then, the Nikkei has been trending steadily lower.
Monday marked a watershed event in Japan as the market broke a key support price. That was a price that had been a support level fully 20 years ago, in 1986. That key price break has confirmed the immediate path ahead for the market.
Just think of that: the stock market in Japan has made no net progress in the last twenty years! And, the way things are going, it may be heading for price levels much earlier than that. Leading the way again, it seems?
http://marketclues.blogspot.com/
Of Basket Cases Which Lead
Japan's stock market is the basket case of the world when it comes to stocks, having formed a peak in 1990 and trending lower ever since, but it has one great characteristic which makes it something to watch. That something is its ability to lead the rest of the markets around the world.
The runup to the peak in 1990 was just a sneak preview of the US stock bubble of the 'Nineties, in fact. More recently, the Nikkei Index peaked in April and tumbled a full month ahead of the US market, then bottomed in June, a month ahead of the US. More recently, it had been rebounding off that June low. That is, it had been until the 26th of October; coincidentally or not, that was the exact day when insiders in the major US stock index started heavily selling the market. Since then, the Nikkei has been trending steadily lower.
Monday marked a watershed event in Japan as the market broke a key support price. That was a price that had been a support level fully 20 years ago, in 1986. That key price break has confirmed the immediate path ahead for the market.
Just think of that: the stock market in Japan has made no net progress in the last twenty years! And, the way things are going, it may be heading for price levels much earlier than that. Leading the way again, it seems?
http://marketclues.blogspot.com/
robo
Well-known member
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
DELL delivers, even though we won't get guidance. That is pushing QQQQ above 44.50 resistance after hours and could set us up for 61.8% projection October at 44.80, or NQ 1830 if it holds overnight. Next resistance for COMP above 2456 is 2475. That's the good news. INTC is not very happy though, stock is down 2.5% and could provide a mixed picture.
The SOX was weak today as was Banking, with the BIX hitting its 50 DMA. Will financials be the canary in the mine? Time will tell. To say that NDX/COMP/QQQQ/SPX/DOW are getting cheerfully overextended above respective 10 day moving averages is an understatement.
Oil is an ignored problem right now, but if 60 sticks after inventories tomorrow, it could come back to haunt stocks next week.
The VIX closed at 9.90, a finish below 10 for the first time since December 1993 (what is now VXO, which also closed at the lowest level since 1993). The S&P corrected 10% three weeks later, but from a higher level (January 1994. Equity pc ratio is rising off multi-month lows (actually the lowest reading of the year) set on Friday and could give a bearish signal if it continues tomorrow. It all sounds repetitive, I know, but investors wanting to buy into this market should wait for a pullback. It's just not worth the potential headache.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Almost a third of Americans plan to spend less on the holidays this year, mainly because they need to use their money for daily expenses, according to a survey released on Tuesday.
The Consumer Federation of America and the Credit Union National Association found 32 percent of shoppers want to spend less than they did during the 2005 holidays. About half of the survey's roughly 1,000 respondents said they would like to spend about the same.
Rising energy costs are forcing many to deck the halls more sparsely this year, the report found, but general household expenses and tight family finances are also dragging down holiday budgets. More than 25 percent in the survey said the prices of gifts were simply too high.
Link
Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh said inflation is too high and there are ``clear'' risks it won't slow as investors expect, suggesting he sees price gains as a greater risk than economic growth.
Here we go again. Every time rates drops, they flip around and warn about inflation. They are trying to have bonds do their work, but it is not very conclusive.
YM and ES trading below their respective 5 day moving averages, immediate resistance now. Oil keeps the bid and is hurting any chance of even a stop run rally at this point. Nevertheless, be careful of the low volume. Watch for a test of SXP 1400 and DOW 12300.
http://aheadofthenews.com/
DELL delivers, even though we won't get guidance. That is pushing QQQQ above 44.50 resistance after hours and could set us up for 61.8% projection October at 44.80, or NQ 1830 if it holds overnight. Next resistance for COMP above 2456 is 2475. That's the good news. INTC is not very happy though, stock is down 2.5% and could provide a mixed picture.
The SOX was weak today as was Banking, with the BIX hitting its 50 DMA. Will financials be the canary in the mine? Time will tell. To say that NDX/COMP/QQQQ/SPX/DOW are getting cheerfully overextended above respective 10 day moving averages is an understatement.
Oil is an ignored problem right now, but if 60 sticks after inventories tomorrow, it could come back to haunt stocks next week.
The VIX closed at 9.90, a finish below 10 for the first time since December 1993 (what is now VXO, which also closed at the lowest level since 1993). The S&P corrected 10% three weeks later, but from a higher level (January 1994. Equity pc ratio is rising off multi-month lows (actually the lowest reading of the year) set on Friday and could give a bearish signal if it continues tomorrow. It all sounds repetitive, I know, but investors wanting to buy into this market should wait for a pullback. It's just not worth the potential headache.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Almost a third of Americans plan to spend less on the holidays this year, mainly because they need to use their money for daily expenses, according to a survey released on Tuesday.
The Consumer Federation of America and the Credit Union National Association found 32 percent of shoppers want to spend less than they did during the 2005 holidays. About half of the survey's roughly 1,000 respondents said they would like to spend about the same.
Rising energy costs are forcing many to deck the halls more sparsely this year, the report found, but general household expenses and tight family finances are also dragging down holiday budgets. More than 25 percent in the survey said the prices of gifts were simply too high.
Link
Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh said inflation is too high and there are ``clear'' risks it won't slow as investors expect, suggesting he sees price gains as a greater risk than economic growth.
Here we go again. Every time rates drops, they flip around and warn about inflation. They are trying to have bonds do their work, but it is not very conclusive.
YM and ES trading below their respective 5 day moving averages, immediate resistance now. Oil keeps the bid and is hurting any chance of even a stop run rally at this point. Nevertheless, be careful of the low volume. Watch for a test of SXP 1400 and DOW 12300.
http://aheadofthenews.com/
robo
Well-known member
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
Markets Get a Boost
Tuesday's market was very subdued, a fact which the Volatility Index reflected by closing under 10 for the second day in a row. But, world markets rallied after the closing bell in New York Tuesday. Strength was evident in the sharp rebound in the Australian market from an equally sharp decline over the past few trading days, suggesting the move was likely to retest broken trendlines from last week. This strength was carrying over to the Japanese stock market, which rose modestly (it's been in a sharp downtrend since it peaked in late October).
We're in the middle of a top-building process in stocks and bonds. Tops always take a lot longer to construct than bottoms, so investors need to be patient because once this top is finished (that date is reserved for subscribers, see the Notes link below), a very sharp selloff is likely to setup a much better buying opportunity for 2007.
http://marketclues.blogspot.com/
Markets Get a Boost
Tuesday's market was very subdued, a fact which the Volatility Index reflected by closing under 10 for the second day in a row. But, world markets rallied after the closing bell in New York Tuesday. Strength was evident in the sharp rebound in the Australian market from an equally sharp decline over the past few trading days, suggesting the move was likely to retest broken trendlines from last week. This strength was carrying over to the Japanese stock market, which rose modestly (it's been in a sharp downtrend since it peaked in late October).
We're in the middle of a top-building process in stocks and bonds. Tops always take a lot longer to construct than bottoms, so investors need to be patient because once this top is finished (that date is reserved for subscribers, see the Notes link below), a very sharp selloff is likely to setup a much better buying opportunity for 2007.
http://marketclues.blogspot.com/
robo
Well-known member
Hard to find Bears these days, but I will keep this thread active until we get some.
Thursday, November 23, 2006
Here is the NDX (Nasdaq 100) chart I was referring to. As you can see, perfect stall at 61.8% projection October (the so-called golden Fibonacci for those of you new to this). I had outlined the possibility of NQ (NDX futures) moving up to 1830, and it could happen in the thin Friday trading, but this chart could tell us the cash index is at pretty strong resistance. There is another interesting aspect to this, one that I alluded to several times and is now even more urgent. Note that during this entire rally, we have not spent more than 5 or 6 days away from the 10 day moving average (exponential on this chart, blue line). We have now been trading a whopping 10 days away from it. That is what I call overextended. Of course, all this time the average has been rising, but now there is the added risk of trading through it since the rise above was parabolic, which tends to correct harder as buyer fatigue sets in Chart.
In fact, longer term bulls would have preferred a more tradeable rise so as to keep a wall of worry present. It's all very artificial, of course, as the Feds inject liquidity to prop up the financial markets to make up for the housing loss. But the dollar is falling apart and that will scare away foreign assets. You can see the selling every day at the open, It's almost brutal. Then, all of a sudden, the phantom buyers appear (do you really think funds are still buying the same stocks here?) forcing shorts to cover and more retail money to jump in for fear of missing the boat. It just makes it very hard even for seasoned traders to jump in without care on the long side and holding until the close after such a run. I preferred shorting the opening bounce, covering and getting out. It was quick money, simple (R2 at open is almost always a reversal) and very profitable (NQ dropped almost 20 points at the open in less than 30 mns and then took all day to get to new highs, far too tedious). You just can't hold on to it. That time will come.
The easier decision is to short the dollar on rallies as it seems the trend is now set into year-end barring a monster bullish piece of economic data. For those who don't like currencies, buying gold on dips is the alternative.
http://aheadofthenews.com/
Thursday, November 23, 2006
Here is the NDX (Nasdaq 100) chart I was referring to. As you can see, perfect stall at 61.8% projection October (the so-called golden Fibonacci for those of you new to this). I had outlined the possibility of NQ (NDX futures) moving up to 1830, and it could happen in the thin Friday trading, but this chart could tell us the cash index is at pretty strong resistance. There is another interesting aspect to this, one that I alluded to several times and is now even more urgent. Note that during this entire rally, we have not spent more than 5 or 6 days away from the 10 day moving average (exponential on this chart, blue line). We have now been trading a whopping 10 days away from it. That is what I call overextended. Of course, all this time the average has been rising, but now there is the added risk of trading through it since the rise above was parabolic, which tends to correct harder as buyer fatigue sets in Chart.
In fact, longer term bulls would have preferred a more tradeable rise so as to keep a wall of worry present. It's all very artificial, of course, as the Feds inject liquidity to prop up the financial markets to make up for the housing loss. But the dollar is falling apart and that will scare away foreign assets. You can see the selling every day at the open, It's almost brutal. Then, all of a sudden, the phantom buyers appear (do you really think funds are still buying the same stocks here?) forcing shorts to cover and more retail money to jump in for fear of missing the boat. It just makes it very hard even for seasoned traders to jump in without care on the long side and holding until the close after such a run. I preferred shorting the opening bounce, covering and getting out. It was quick money, simple (R2 at open is almost always a reversal) and very profitable (NQ dropped almost 20 points at the open in less than 30 mns and then took all day to get to new highs, far too tedious). You just can't hold on to it. That time will come.
The easier decision is to short the dollar on rallies as it seems the trend is now set into year-end barring a monster bullish piece of economic data. For those who don't like currencies, buying gold on dips is the alternative.
http://aheadofthenews.com/
robo
Well-known member
Thursday, November 23, 2006
Forever Blowing Bubbles
The Federal Reserve has a history of misjudging the economy, but some of that may be due to the fact that they are saying one thing, but thinking and doing something else. Here, we are referring to their constant references to their desire to control inflation. If you want to find out what the Fed is really thinking, you have to look at what they do instead.
What they are doing is expanding the money supply at a rate of 10% per year. That's the fastest rate in many, many years. It is approximately four times as fast as the economy is growing. Now, if the Fed were really concerned with inflation, they would not allow the money supply to grow at this rate, so there has to be another reason why they are pumping money into the economy at this prodigious rate.
The most likely explanation is that they are worried about the housing bust bleeding the economy into recession. The decline in housing, which has much more to run over the next few years, is something the Fed engineered after they inadvertently created the bubble in housing with the wrong response -- Depression-level interest rates -- to the recession of 2000-2003. Since ratcheting short term interest rates back to a level which broke the housing bubble, pumping excess money is designed to offset that drag from the declining housing sector.
Since the economy has been unable to use that excess money, guess where the excess ends up? Stock, commodity and bond markets, that's where it ends up. In the stock market, prices are at nose-bleed levels of valuation. In the bond market, bond prices are so high that the interest rate on 30-year bonds is far below the rate for an overnight loan. And, in commodities, real goods prices have soared, yet have not slowed the economy or even created measurable inflation (if you believe the government reports on inflation, that is). Consequently, we are actually seeing inflation show up in the markets instead.
This is the ultimate outcome of a managed economy. A central authority, the Federal Reserve Bank, run by officials who are not elected by the people, are centrally-managing the economy by blowing asset bubbles to prop the whole economy up. It's a system the communists tried to implement, but it took the capitalists of the world to perfect the process. And, you have to hand it to them: when it works, it's great. When it doesn't? Well, you have depressions like the 'Thirties.
Here's hoping the Fed keeps all those bubbles under control.
http://www.nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html
http://marketclues.blogspot.com/
Forever Blowing Bubbles
The Federal Reserve has a history of misjudging the economy, but some of that may be due to the fact that they are saying one thing, but thinking and doing something else. Here, we are referring to their constant references to their desire to control inflation. If you want to find out what the Fed is really thinking, you have to look at what they do instead.
What they are doing is expanding the money supply at a rate of 10% per year. That's the fastest rate in many, many years. It is approximately four times as fast as the economy is growing. Now, if the Fed were really concerned with inflation, they would not allow the money supply to grow at this rate, so there has to be another reason why they are pumping money into the economy at this prodigious rate.
The most likely explanation is that they are worried about the housing bust bleeding the economy into recession. The decline in housing, which has much more to run over the next few years, is something the Fed engineered after they inadvertently created the bubble in housing with the wrong response -- Depression-level interest rates -- to the recession of 2000-2003. Since ratcheting short term interest rates back to a level which broke the housing bubble, pumping excess money is designed to offset that drag from the declining housing sector.
Since the economy has been unable to use that excess money, guess where the excess ends up? Stock, commodity and bond markets, that's where it ends up. In the stock market, prices are at nose-bleed levels of valuation. In the bond market, bond prices are so high that the interest rate on 30-year bonds is far below the rate for an overnight loan. And, in commodities, real goods prices have soared, yet have not slowed the economy or even created measurable inflation (if you believe the government reports on inflation, that is). Consequently, we are actually seeing inflation show up in the markets instead.
This is the ultimate outcome of a managed economy. A central authority, the Federal Reserve Bank, run by officials who are not elected by the people, are centrally-managing the economy by blowing asset bubbles to prop the whole economy up. It's a system the communists tried to implement, but it took the capitalists of the world to perfect the process. And, you have to hand it to them: when it works, it's great. When it doesn't? Well, you have depressions like the 'Thirties.
Here's hoping the Fed keeps all those bubbles under control.
http://www.nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html
http://marketclues.blogspot.com/
robo
Well-known member
robo
Well-known member
917 trading days since down 2% day
in Data Analysis | Markets | Trading
A Trader friend emailed this:
It has been 95 trading days since we have had a down 1% close. This is 4.5 standard deviations from the historical norm, which means a one in 260,000 chance of happening without the intervention which we have seen.
It has been 917 trading days since we have had a 2% down day at the close. This is 6.13 standard deviations from the norm, and the second longest streak since 1942. The odds of this happening without the Fed's intervention is one in 86,579,799.
It's great to know that your tax dollars are working hard to keep the financial system afloat. But what happens when the support stops, or an event overwhelms the ability of the Treasury to support the market?
Paulson says that they have been able to inflate stock prices more than enough to offset the decline in the value of housing; but what happens when stock prices can no longer be pushed higher without running into foreign sellers of dollar assets? Are we going to buy back all of our overseas debt too?
Fascinating stuff . . .
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2006/11/910_trading_day.html
in Data Analysis | Markets | Trading
A Trader friend emailed this:
It has been 95 trading days since we have had a down 1% close. This is 4.5 standard deviations from the historical norm, which means a one in 260,000 chance of happening without the intervention which we have seen.
It has been 917 trading days since we have had a 2% down day at the close. This is 6.13 standard deviations from the norm, and the second longest streak since 1942. The odds of this happening without the Fed's intervention is one in 86,579,799.
It's great to know that your tax dollars are working hard to keep the financial system afloat. But what happens when the support stops, or an event overwhelms the ability of the Treasury to support the market?
Paulson says that they have been able to inflate stock prices more than enough to offset the decline in the value of housing; but what happens when stock prices can no longer be pushed higher without running into foreign sellers of dollar assets? Are we going to buy back all of our overseas debt too?
Fascinating stuff . . .
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2006/11/910_trading_day.html
According to this the Fed Reserve is really this powerful. Are there any charts out that track what the Fed does.
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