TRAFFIC_DOG
Member
I feel like I'm talking to Ray from Rainman.............
C fund thread.......... focus.
C fund thread.......... focus.
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C-fund
- Thread starter stebbins777
- Start date
TRAFFIC_DOG
Member
One of the keys to successful investing is to forget about hoping the market will rally to get you back some or all of the losses from an ill timed entry point.
Since the only source of meaningful cash in our TSP is to exit equities and wait to enter at a lower price, the focus should be on the chances of the markets going lower from here. If you believe they will, then it could be a smart move to raise some cash to put back in later, irrespective of the fact that selling those funds will "lock in" a loss.
I am feeling more like the economic climate is so negative that the technical retracement that usually accompanies the falling knife drop that we've endured won't materialize as I had thought.
There are three main scenarios.
1. We drop down to at least retest the 2002 low very very soon.
2. We gradually climb higher for several weeks to a month or more, then roll over and go down to retest our recent low or lower to the 2002 low.
3. We have put in the low, and we move higher in some fashion.
3a. (a discussion on 3.) If the low is behind us what will be the probable strength of prices going forward? Do we put some real distance between last weeks prices, not to look back? I personally don't think so. It's likely to be weak and choppy, with sellable relative strength.
With these scenarios on the table one could argue that there is little long term risk to staying out of the market or even exiting at these levels.
(---- important note here. I assuming all to be ACTIVE managers of their accounts----------- IF you don't "trade" your account in some fashion, I wouldn't get out here.-----)
If you exit, and the market runs up, in my opinion it will revisit at least this 950 range. All that would have been lost is a short term profitable trade.
If it moves lower again, it could do so suddenly, in a more scary drop then we have just witnessed.
These are just some thought and are not recommendations.
I took a little more off the table today. I believe it is some really cheap insurance.
My technique is always to minimize risk within the premise that markets are almost always in some state of over bought or over sold and adjust to profit from the correction from that state.
I had been mostly out all year, and entered the market twice and was fully in at oversold levels. Both times the markets continued farther down and did not recover to earlier highs. (Duh....Bear market). The point is I got fully out at the next chance the market gave me....NOT when I got back to even.
I got fully in last Tuesday with my last installment and am fully prepared to have to TRADE my way back to my previous high balance and NOT WAIT for the MARKET to give it back to me.
Always risk vs reward............... just my .02
Since the only source of meaningful cash in our TSP is to exit equities and wait to enter at a lower price, the focus should be on the chances of the markets going lower from here. If you believe they will, then it could be a smart move to raise some cash to put back in later, irrespective of the fact that selling those funds will "lock in" a loss.
I am feeling more like the economic climate is so negative that the technical retracement that usually accompanies the falling knife drop that we've endured won't materialize as I had thought.
There are three main scenarios.
1. We drop down to at least retest the 2002 low very very soon.
2. We gradually climb higher for several weeks to a month or more, then roll over and go down to retest our recent low or lower to the 2002 low.
3. We have put in the low, and we move higher in some fashion.
3a. (a discussion on 3.) If the low is behind us what will be the probable strength of prices going forward? Do we put some real distance between last weeks prices, not to look back? I personally don't think so. It's likely to be weak and choppy, with sellable relative strength.
With these scenarios on the table one could argue that there is little long term risk to staying out of the market or even exiting at these levels.
(---- important note here. I assuming all to be ACTIVE managers of their accounts----------- IF you don't "trade" your account in some fashion, I wouldn't get out here.-----)
If you exit, and the market runs up, in my opinion it will revisit at least this 950 range. All that would have been lost is a short term profitable trade.
If it moves lower again, it could do so suddenly, in a more scary drop then we have just witnessed.
These are just some thought and are not recommendations.
I took a little more off the table today. I believe it is some really cheap insurance.
My technique is always to minimize risk within the premise that markets are almost always in some state of over bought or over sold and adjust to profit from the correction from that state.
I had been mostly out all year, and entered the market twice and was fully in at oversold levels. Both times the markets continued farther down and did not recover to earlier highs. (Duh....Bear market). The point is I got fully out at the next chance the market gave me....NOT when I got back to even.
I got fully in last Tuesday with my last installment and am fully prepared to have to TRADE my way back to my previous high balance and NOT WAIT for the MARKET to give it back to me.
Always risk vs reward............... just my .02
TRAFFIC_DOG
Member
This is the secret to long term survival/success as a market timer.
Always look forward with fresh analysis, using the most recent data.
Act as if you've inherited the account..... who cares how the balance came to be what it is.
I pulled some out at around 950, then again the last day of Sept at higher prices.
I think we're here.
That's why I pushed 25% back in today.
GL everyone.
HedgeHog
Member
Regarding the question, are we there yet, I think we are close.
Some thoughts.
Today Paulson referred to the global financial crisis as a "once or twice" in a hundred year event.
There are a few ways of looking at that. One would be to compare the great depression to what is going on now since that was in the last 100 years. The S&P is now down about -49% for the year and the NASDAQ a hair over -50% down. That puts this as the second worse bear market with the largest drop the one in the timeframe of the great depression. That thought may cause "fear" in some and "opportunity" in others.
Another way to look at it (opportunity view) is that we live in a time when more people then ever invest in stocks and the large mutual funds will be around for a long time to come holding workers retirement accounts. People will get bored quickly with the 3.2% safe returns they are now getting outside of the market and when a real bottom is found and a bit of good news shows up now and then the investors will come back into the market and the mutual fund managers will start moving back into the market around the same. Sort of like lemmings climbing back up the cliff in mass. From these levels a 10% move is around 750 points which these days can happen in a few hours (the noon trading deadline in the TSP throws a serious wrench in this). However, small trades and DCA will keep one from the occasional cliff.
There is already huge amount of dollars on the sidelines waiting.
Thus, this could be a once in a 100 year opportunity. I have been in and out on a few good days and last buy was 20% C at 9.80. I am comfortable with that and will leave that sit for now. I used up my two IFTs this month, one on election night (sold) and one (buy) the 20% at 9.80. Now I am looking at using savings accounts getting 3.1% (jumbo money market at credit union) and looking at some individual stocks that pay dividends and are in a fairly resession proof busines and have been beat up. A natural gas pipeline distribution company comes to mind (doesn't own the gas and thus isn't effected much by natural gas price when it drops, but owns the distribution pipeline and charges a tariff).
It is dangerous out there and I have a little routine each day when I tell myself each morning, "make good choices today, make good plans and make controlled actions." The controlled actions part keeps one out of trouble but also limits growth from good decisions. Example, 10% into the market instead of 50% or 100%. At an older age and with a larger account this controlled action discipline is good insurance against taking a big loss in any one area. The penny in the G fund had been the norm up until Sep.
30 Sep. 1987 I sold all my stock which was in Allied Signal, Bendix Field Engineering (the company I worked for at that time). That turned out to be a luckly move and studying that type of luck has been a hobby over the past 20 years.
A good point to remember is that history often repeats itself and history is that one year from the low of a bear market it is not uncommon for the market to be up over 40% or more. Another comforting point might be that if one gets in within 10% of the bottom and holds for a year that historically has resulted in a good return.
The wild cards are International Events could upstage all the bad economc news with even worse news. Oil was at around $48.70 today. Watching CNN it is not hard to see a scenario that could change that quickly. Good trading and investing to all. HH
Some thoughts.
Today Paulson referred to the global financial crisis as a "once or twice" in a hundred year event.
There are a few ways of looking at that. One would be to compare the great depression to what is going on now since that was in the last 100 years. The S&P is now down about -49% for the year and the NASDAQ a hair over -50% down. That puts this as the second worse bear market with the largest drop the one in the timeframe of the great depression. That thought may cause "fear" in some and "opportunity" in others.
Another way to look at it (opportunity view) is that we live in a time when more people then ever invest in stocks and the large mutual funds will be around for a long time to come holding workers retirement accounts. People will get bored quickly with the 3.2% safe returns they are now getting outside of the market and when a real bottom is found and a bit of good news shows up now and then the investors will come back into the market and the mutual fund managers will start moving back into the market around the same. Sort of like lemmings climbing back up the cliff in mass. From these levels a 10% move is around 750 points which these days can happen in a few hours (the noon trading deadline in the TSP throws a serious wrench in this). However, small trades and DCA will keep one from the occasional cliff.
There is already huge amount of dollars on the sidelines waiting.
Thus, this could be a once in a 100 year opportunity. I have been in and out on a few good days and last buy was 20% C at 9.80. I am comfortable with that and will leave that sit for now. I used up my two IFTs this month, one on election night (sold) and one (buy) the 20% at 9.80. Now I am looking at using savings accounts getting 3.1% (jumbo money market at credit union) and looking at some individual stocks that pay dividends and are in a fairly resession proof busines and have been beat up. A natural gas pipeline distribution company comes to mind (doesn't own the gas and thus isn't effected much by natural gas price when it drops, but owns the distribution pipeline and charges a tariff).
It is dangerous out there and I have a little routine each day when I tell myself each morning, "make good choices today, make good plans and make controlled actions." The controlled actions part keeps one out of trouble but also limits growth from good decisions. Example, 10% into the market instead of 50% or 100%. At an older age and with a larger account this controlled action discipline is good insurance against taking a big loss in any one area. The penny in the G fund had been the norm up until Sep.
30 Sep. 1987 I sold all my stock which was in Allied Signal, Bendix Field Engineering (the company I worked for at that time). That turned out to be a luckly move and studying that type of luck has been a hobby over the past 20 years.
A good point to remember is that history often repeats itself and history is that one year from the low of a bear market it is not uncommon for the market to be up over 40% or more. Another comforting point might be that if one gets in within 10% of the bottom and holds for a year that historically has resulted in a good return.
The wild cards are International Events could upstage all the bad economc news with even worse news. Oil was at around $48.70 today. Watching CNN it is not hard to see a scenario that could change that quickly. Good trading and investing to all. HH
wv-girl
Member
DCA is now the only way since we don't know when this will stop. Just hope it is in my life time so I can enjoy some of the spoils.
TRAFFIC_DOG
Member
After breaching the '02-'03 lows, the SPX seems to be in no-mans' land.
Having spent some time trying to extract a bottom projection, I think the most logical area is to look at the NYA, which hasn't yet tested it's '02-'03 lows of 4500. I don't see how we come out of this before that happens.
That would put the SPX into the 720 range.
Having spent some time trying to extract a bottom projection, I think the most logical area is to look at the NYA, which hasn't yet tested it's '02-'03 lows of 4500. I don't see how we come out of this before that happens.
That would put the SPX into the 720 range.
TRAFFIC_DOG
Member
LOL.......... The best bullish divergence signal I've ever seen is to diverge from your "buy" or "hold" bullish recommendations ..........and sell like hell.
McDuck
Well-known member
NYA? Nyse Composite Index New. NYA (INDEX) ?
TRAFFIC_DOG
Member
Even though may may have continued legs in this rally, or worse yet a sell off this afternoon followed by more strength through Friday.......
I'm taking some off the table today.
Over 10% in 2 days........ you just have to put that in the bank.
I'm taking some off the table today.
Over 10% in 2 days........ you just have to put that in the bank.
Boghie
Well-known member
Me thinks I will buy at $9.70
and, sell at $10.30.
Just found out that you could bail out to the G Fund in stages - as long as only the G fund gets up allocated. Thus, both your IFT trades should be into the market funds. You can use SquealBears '<1%>' allocation adjustment strategy and staged bailouts to protect yourself.
and, sell at $10.30.
Just found out that you could bail out to the G Fund in stages - as long as only the G fund gets up allocated. Thus, both your IFT trades should be into the market funds. You can use SquealBears '<1%>' allocation adjustment strategy and staged bailouts to protect yourself.
James48843
Well-known member
Ok, I've had enough of the post- Christmas Price Despression.
I want Santa back.
The S&P is now at 861.
I hereby declare that is low enough for today. And I ORDER it back into positive territory. BOOO!! Now move there!
I want Santa back.
The S&P is now at 861.
I hereby declare that is low enough for today. And I ORDER it back into positive territory. BOOO!! Now move there!
budnipper1
Active member
I guess the S&P500 fell completely off the charts. When I checked the bottom of the page a few minutes ago, it was missing. (not available?) It reappeared since then, but I didn't like what I saw.:worried:
View attachment 5434
View attachment 5434
Talltimber
Member
Went from 100% G to 78%C and 23% I. That's the second trade this month. I like buying at lower prices, its the first half of the buy low, sell high thing I hope.
budnipper1
Active member
Line chart of sp500 seasonality
View attachment 5554
View attachment 5554
budnipper1
Active member
Thanks for the chart skip. I hope the trend shown on your chart holds, but I can't help but think that "seasonality" has not been very helpful for the past year. There's always hope, I guess.
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