C-fund

[Braveheart]

Things looking ugly this morning-

Mon 8:10am ET- Briefing.com
S&P futures vs fair value: -40.90.
Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -45.80.

I heard a guy talking this morning, saying if you are already in, you might as well stay, because selling during a panic fall is about the worst thing you can do.

Remind me to mention that to the Thrift Board, who only allow a move TO the G fund, and not back, after the second move. Those who move to "G" today, and it's there second move, would lock in whatever downside there is today.

I'm in, and I'm basically stuck, so I'll roll with the punches today.

I can only hope those board members loaded up yesterday and got their a** kicked. What a plan everyone loses except Barclays. Only in America we outsource our United States TSP Fund to a Bank in England !!!

 

[Birchtree]

malyla,

I bet you wouldn't be so radical if you didn't hide behind that mask.

 

[ATCJeff]

..... hurricanes causing gas shortages in the SouthEast(why not stock pile the formulated gas????They knew the hurricanes were coming)?

Before the hurricanes they barely kept up with demand. We use to much gas to have any real kind of stockpile. Also, part of the problem in the southeast was both pipelines were down. Colonial just got their pipeline up to full speed today. The problem is it takes a very long time for the gas to reach the distribution centers scattered along the pipeline. Guess how fast the gas flows in the pipeline? 5mph !!!!!! Ouch

Jeff

 

[malyla]

Before the hurricanes they barely kept up with demand. We use to much gas to have any real kind of stockpile. Also, part of the problem in the southeast was both pipelines were down. Colonial just got their pipeline up to full speed today. The problem is it takes a very long time for the gas to reach the distribution centers scattered along the pipeline. Guess how fast the gas flows in the pipeline? 5mph !!!!!! Ouch

Jeff

Just watch NBC nightly news and they said that the shortages in the southeast were due to the following:

The oil platforms have not been fully operational due to ongoing repairs from Katrina. Over the last 6 months, the high price of gas has decreased gasoline demands which caused the refineries to decrease supply which further decreased the stored reserve of refined gasoline. Ike shut the refineries down again which further reduced the storage capacity of the refineries. It is the lowest in many decades. I understand that it takes time to pump the gas from the storage silos into the trucks and then get the trucks to the urban centers, but this really sounds like a logistic failure on the part of the gas suppliers. They slowed gas refining between hurricanes and then didn't get the trucks loaded with stored fuel for transport to the urban centers. Atlanta has had this shortage for two weeks now. Its crazy and when you see the frustration on the faces of the people who are trying to get to work so they can pay that mortgage and buy groceries that are 30% more expensive than last year, you have to realize that this is more than an act of God. Some link to puruse.

http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/stories/2008/09/28/gas_shortage_explainer.html

http://justanothercoverup.com/?p=546

http://www.myfoxwfld.com/myvoicedc/2008/09/26/atlanta-gas-shortage-fueling-long-lines-short-tempers/

http://www.cnn.com/2008/LIVING/wayoflife/09/22/atlanta.gas.crunch/index.html


C Fund was the fund to be in today! Wish I had moved some in. Thinking of taking a risk as sitting in F is really boring.
Malyla

 

[malyla]

malyla,

I bet you wouldn't be so radical if you didn't hide behind that mask.

Treebeard, I will unmask when McCain wins the election. I don't think you will like it!

Masked
Malyla

The C fund is the fund to be in the last 3 days. F sucks....

 

[James48843]

C Fund getting even uglier.


Down she goes.

 

[fabijo]

C Fund getting even uglier.


Down she goes.

Hey, it might be a "he."

 

[Birchtree]

My last C fund buy in was at $13.86 - I would be joyous for anything under $13.00. So is the C fund dropping because there is a heavy compliment of export related companies. If so that's only temporary. This is just the panicky hedge funds lightening their loads. They will be back because they can't make money in the money markets. I sold my fertilizer stocks awhile back on their highs and am now itching to build another base in them.

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

While getting ready for work this morning, the coordinated global rate cut was announced and futures shot way up. The SPX hit +3%.

I couldn't help but think to myself that I wish they would have waited untill intra day, to get a chance for a capitulation bottom with a nice kangaroo tail reversal left behind on the chart.

I get to work to see the futures get pushed back down to as much as negative 2%.

This action may have the demoralizing effect of looking as though no amount of institutional intervening can save this market........... then....

BANG....... off we go.

It may yet happen today...... kangaroo tail and all.

 

[James48843]

VIX back over 58 today.

For the record- the last time "C" fund price was below $11.42 a share was May 19, 2004.

Going lower now.

What a bargain.

 

[James48843]

Will 972 hold?

We're about to test 970 for the second time.

 

[James48843]

970 held for a second time.

good news.

Let's see if three times is a charm. If it retests a third time this afternoon, and holds, then that is a solid sign of a reversal about to happen.

If it breaks down in a third attempt, we're all toast.

Cross fingers.

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

I'd be happy to continue buying in the $14 range for the next three years, but I don't have that much time left. I sure do like these prices - 55 shares every two weeks is wonderful.

My last C fund buy in was at $13.86 - I would be joyous for anything under $13.00.

Where's Birchie?
DCA is a wonderful thing. Every single share he has bought since declaring his 30,000 shares of C fund in April of 2005 is under water. He probably has taken about a $200,000 haircut to his roughly 35 to 36,000 share account.

But not to worry.........
He might be able to buy as many as 70 shares at the next biweekly.
This must have exceded even his wildest dreams. This could be a DCA orgie.

Can't help but picture him stripping off his clothes and bursting out the door like the old cereal commercial........

"Kooku for Coco-Puffs..........Kooku for Coco-Puffs..........Kooku......."

 

[James48843]

970 holds for a third time.

that was VERY good.

Now, if we can just make it to the last hour, that "3 'O'clock Charlie" end of the day rebound had GOT to come through- and signal some relief.

(hint- see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5_O'Clock_Charlie ) One of my favorites.

 

[James48843]

Final hour green time.

 

[CountryBoy]

970 holds for a third time.

that was VERY good.

Now, if we can just make it to the last hour, that "3 'O'clock Charlie" end of the day rebound had GOT to come through- and signal some relief.

(hint- see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5_O'Clock_Charlie ) One of my favorites.

Well it looks "3 'O'clock Charlie" made his appearance at the last 15 to 30 minutes. But that may be good news for tomorrow.

Good Luck,
CB

 

[McDuck]

that's 6 straight down days for the C-fund

 

[James48843]

Fourth brush with 970 mark- and it held. 971.38.


Good.

Solid foundation.

 

[Guest2]

James, on a intraday basis, if the S&P hits below 970, how bad is it ?

 

[James48843]

Ooo. Hit 960. Not so good.

(In answer to the question- if it hits and holds, and then goes up, that's good. If it breaksdown and falls, then that's bad. )

and If it breaks down BAD, and falls a lot, say down to the 920 or below range, then that's REAL BAD- in that it means we have no floor forming at all yet.

the 960 could just be a fluke. VOlume is again pretty good so far, each time it reaches down we have an influx of buying to slow it down. So we'll just have to wait and see what happens.