C-fund

[Guest2]

ooo. Hit 960. Not so good.

(in answer to the question- if it hits and holds, and then goes up, that's good. If it breaksdown and falls, then that's bad. )

and if it breaks down bad, and falls a lot, say down to the 920 or below range, then that's real bad- in that it means we have no floor forming at all yet.

The 960 could just be a fluke. Volume is again pretty good so far, each time it reaches down we have an influx of buying to slow it down. So we'll just have to wait and see what happens.

thanks james !

 

[Pilgrim]

Right now (12:45 EDT) SP500 is 971.68. Exactly one year ago today it hit its all-time peak of 1565.15, a one-year loss of 38%.

Anyone believe that the coming upside could happen just as fast? It has before!

 

[HedgeHog]

Upside probably not that fast, but significant upside to the bottom in one year time frame. Playing the bottom or any bounce is difficult when the charts are out the window and emotion is driving the train. The 700 billion plan details will be out soon but that will not be a catalyst in my view. The reason for the bottom will be news of "value". The P/Es of much of the S&P 500 are now in single digits and overall at a point where the bottom will probably emerge. P/E of 7 back in 1972 era. S&P was at P/E 12 area before todays 7% plus drop in S&P. Dow 7,000 to 8,500 will be the big window for the bottom. The emotion will change from fear to comfort of getting a good deal. MSN referred to "Crash of 2008" today which are code words for it is time to get in. Like most I didn't see a crash coming but thought there would be an orderly market down with buys on the bounces. It didn't turn out that way. Last month went 20% from G to C on 17th and got out on 19th for 8.32% and was lucky. I am still looking for the entry point in Oct. Would like to see a bottom before jumping in. Then jumping in moderation, 20% maybe (not all eggs in one basket). The meeting of the worlds leading economys this weekend may not be a positive. With hat in hand the U.S. will be looking to China and Saudi and I don't see an upside to that in the near or long term. Best to all and in my humble opinion if one can survive the 4 hours after making a decision things are looking pretty good when we find the bottom as an entry point to "C" fund. HH

 

[coach222]

Current P/E's are too high. They have not adjusted to REAL earnings

 

[James5v]

I hear that the tech people are saying the market could go down another 12% before it finds support. How do you guys feel about that?

I have been thinking of moving some back into the C fund since I have been 100% in the G fund for over a year.

 

[HedgeHog]

James,

I haven't read anyone calling a bottom under 7,000 yet but I read that 7,000 about 4 days ago and things are moving fast. I am sure someone out there is now calling for something less then 7K. I am also 100% G and tried to move 10% to C today but the TSP computer system was bogged down and I couldn't get my IFT in between 1130 EST and 1158, so am still 100% G which is OK. I think we are within 12% of the bottom based on a bottom of 50% down. That would make it approximately tied with the current 2nd (49%, 2000 to 2002) and 3rd (48%, 1972) worst bear market lows. The Great Depression in the early 30's saw the market go down over 80%. It effected how my dad viewed the world (did everything in cash) and myself (no debt, pay off my credit monthly).

Some info. I can share is an article I read about a former bear market that hit a low point and quickly came up 19% in the following days. Then it went back down most of the 19% and that was the base it came back up from for a sustained run. May or may not happen like that again, but a thought I have had is to just hang out and wait for a significant bounce and when there is the initial profit taking from the bounce get in the "C" fund with the thought the bottom has been reached and get in close to the bottom. HH

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

I‘m betting on a retrace to the previous weekly low of 1133 before heading back down.
There are still too many people saying to wait for a quick retest.

Nothing good on the horizon, yet something can be twisted into enough of a positive to explain away a rise of 130 points.

i.e. LIBOR coming down, TED spread getting better, the first concrete action being run through the bailout program to crow about, some clown coming in the CNBC studio with anecdotal evidence of credit easing (maybe that one car dealer finally got a short term loan to make payroll), the “tax break effect” of low gas prices, a few earnings reports which aren’t too far from the recently revised downward estimates….. bla bla bla.

Just when everyone exhales…………… back down we go.

Of course I had to take some off the table today as insurance against an immediate collapse.

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

Of course I had to take some off the table today as insurance against an immediate collapse.

This makes up for all the times in the past I nailed it and my insurance was wasted................. whew.

The limited IFT's really do make this hard.
It's still possible that in late Oct we push higher than yesterday's close.
Since I can't go into stocks, if we bottom here and run higher before the end of Oct, then it's a buy back higher. That is however, looking more and more unlikely.

While 28% ahead of the C fund YTD 'aint too bad, a 45G haircut today is no fun........................

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

Nasdaq Composite has broken it's January low today. Not a good sign. We are going lower, S&P 1230 - 1200 next stop?! Could get a 1 or 2 day bounce but its only an offramp for the pro's. Waiting for the panic to begin. I agree with you James.

This quote was from March. I too have been bearish for a long while.

What's demoralizing is how you can be right with a macro analysis,
but a little off on the timing and ........... well you know

Max Pain.

Maybe to show confidence and help the markets, we could do a reverse 401K Obomanomics and borrow up to $10,000 this year and next from the Bailout Trough .... at say 2% on a 10 year note and put it into a 401K or equivalent...........

Should make a lot of money by the 2018 pay back.

 

[malyla]

0.41 cents away from June 2003 shareprice. Over five years of earnings gone. How long to remake that money? Five years or more/less. If there are bubbles, five years should get those earnings back, but regulation will slow things down.

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

Well folks, when the 10 year compounded C fund returns drop off 1998, which was +28.44%, and replace it with -37% for this year (if we finish here)..........

The 10 year compounded return will be.......

(-1.41)% per year.....

You tell me if buy and hold works.

 

[Gumby]

S&P500 is getting hit hard again today.

With S&P 500 at 869.11 at 11:17 EST the fund is down 4.27% today.
Yesterday (10/15/08) closing price was $10.4196

$10.4196 - 10.4196(4.27%) = $9.9747......5 years of gains have evaporated.

If we don't get a wave of buying this PM....S&P may take out 840.:worried::worried:

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

S&P500 is getting hit hard again today.

With S&P 500 at 869.11 at 11:17 EST the fund is down 4.27% today.
Yesterday (10/15/08) closing price was $10.4196

$10.4196 - 10.4196(4.27%) = $9.9747......5 years of gains have evaporated.

If we don't get a wave of buying this PM....S&P may take out 840.:worried::worried:

I'll take that as a no.

 

[Gumby]

Well folks, when the 10 year compounded C fund returns drop off 1998, which was +28.44%, and replace it with -37% for this year (if we finish here)..........

The 10 year compounded return will be.......

(-1.41)% per year.....

You tell me if buy and hold works.

Traffic Dog..... I consider you a friend.......Please don't Buy-N-Hold...
FRTIB strategy of limiting IFT's and the noon EST deadline for an IFT has caused significant loses for active TSP participants in this bear market......but FRTIB will never admit it. They are looking after Barclays and not the TSP particpant.

FRTIB picked the worst year possible to implement their draconian restrictions.

 

[Birchtree]

I'll tell you that buy and hold does work and I'm buying income stocks to add to my pain level.

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

I'll tell you that buy and hold does work and I'm buying income stocks to add to my pain level.

We just can't ever seem to get you to keep it to the TSP.

You and I had almost exactly the same number of shares of C fund when you arrived on this board.

As you well know, share accumulation is the true measure.

I have a low risk "hit for singles" approach with the avowed mandate not to repeat the 2000-2003 set back.

I am getting close to having accumulated 20,000 more shares of C fund then you since April of 2005. (if we convert your I fund to C fund )

I'll tell you that buy and hold does work

I guess it depends on your definition of "works".

 

[Birchtree]

Congratulations - keep that excellent strategy on the right track. One wrong move and it will hurt with that balance. Profitability resides in the ride ahead.

 

[Tempest]

"Friends Don't Let Friends Buy and Hold"

Still in 100% equities.

"Same as it ever was."

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

Profitability resides in the ride ahead.

Profitability (success) resides in knowing that cash must be harvested in times of plenty, like crops from a field, to buy even more seedlings to be planted, nurtured and harvested again.

It is the unwise farmer who allows his crops to whither in the field until there is no buyer for them.

Buying a handful of seeds every two weeks won't be enough to plant the thousand acres I'll need to husband for my retirement. .......cheers

 

[Birchtree]

I had the prescient good fortune to unload the bulk of my commodity stocks and then reinvested that profit along with the original principle into about 40 toxic bank stocks and have lost out on FNN, FRE, LEH - the rest are doing ok and will continue to gain in value. As a matter of fact I did a little DCAing into some of them today - I can smell the superlative bull manure wafting across this board. How sweet it is.