C-fund

[James48843]

Yes- these ratios will have to decrease before the market has the confidence to return to an upswing.

If the overall P/E is now 16.4, then I would bet that we will be down around 12 or so before the turnaround really sinks in, maybe 13.

Which would put the S&P on a glide path lower for a while, unless earnings really do kick that much higher. You mention Marathon Oil- it seems the Oil stocks are all saying that despite higher crude prices, they are not reaping bigger profits this time around, and are instead eating a large portion of the uptick right now.

Marathon's P/E is around 9

BP's P/E is: 11.89,

Exxon Mobile P/E is 12.59

Will oil profits zoom as we hit $100 oil, or will all the profit dollars go to the Saudis?

 

[James48843]

The P&F chart shows the price objective is 1350.

See more details in the P&F Chart School thread.

View attachment 2685

Note 1- Now on a triple bottom breakdown from November 21st, falling beneath a bearish resistance line.

Note 2- Price objective still showing 1350 to the downside.

 

[Squiner]

What might the C-fund do tomorrow beacuse of what the Fed decides? I'm thinking of bailing to G today.

 

[Birchtree]

The C fund will probably be pushing toward its' yearly high price of $17.53. But by all means save yourself.

 

[Squiner]

The C fund will probably be pushing toward its' yearly high price of $17.53. But by all means save yourself.

Spot on.....

Guess I shoud've followed my gut...and your sarcasm.

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

Spot on.....

Guess I shoud've followed my gut...and your sarcasm.

I would advise to always question admonitions from one who proudly extols the virtues of paying $13,000 - 14,000 for the opportunity to acquire $750 worth at a 2.5% lower price. Gotta love that DCA.......

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

I think we are entering a critical 2 week period here.

My research says that the 1440 to 1460 area needs to hold for my monthly technicals to hold up for Dec.

This indicator failed in the middle of a 20% decline in Aug of '98 and again in the first of Nov in 2000.
These were the only 2 failings that I've seen.

The six months of volatility is an obvious reflection of uncertainty.
A break to the down side is very possible, but I'm not willing to say that it's the most likely scenario.
It's definitely too close to call going forward.
I'm being very cautious in my positions for a while.

I'll report back if or when it breaks.

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

We are very close to a very bearish cross over here....

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

We are very close to a very bearish cross over here....

We did get the bearish crossover yesterday, but we won't get confirmation till a close at these levels at end of month.

It could be shaping up just like August, where we crossed on the 15th, then put in that big intra-day low below 1380 on the 16th, then rallied out of the bottoms to finish the month bullish w/no bearish EOM indication.

It feels different this time.........

 

[cpchri1]

Wouldn't the TSP tracker help?

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

Who hit the reset button?

C fund is at $15.69..... exactly were it ended 2006.

 

[Birchtree]

That $15.69 is a great price for the new employee that is just beginning to build a portfolio. For their benefit it would be nice to keep the C fund in the $15 range for the next three years, but we know that will not happen. We could see the $18 range by the end of 2008.

 

[James48843]

Wow. That was a blowout today, eh?

Next support level downward isn't until 1270-1260 range.

Tomorrow could be bloody again.

The S&P lost 2.91% today. That should work out to .45 cents, making the price $15.05 a share.

The last time it was this low, was October 18, 2006.

 

[vectorman]

The worse month for the C fund since 1988 was Aug 1998. Second worse was Sept 2002. Look what happened in the months that followed. So far the C fund for Jan 2008 is down -9.12.

1998
Aug....-14.47
Sept...6.33
Oct....8.19
Nov....6.04
Dec....5.76

2002
Sept....-10.87
Oct....8.77
Nov....5.87
Dec...-5.85

http://www.tsp.gov/rates/monthly-history.html Look at 'Returns'

http://www.tspmoney.com/tspm_tool.php?toolname=historical_chart_tool

 

[Show-me]

Those are good odds to me.

 

[vectorman]

Those are good odds to me.

But if we are going into a recession...2000,2001 & 2002 over all were real bad.

 

[Birchtree]

Stock evaluations are different now - they are solid outside of financials. I remember the 1990s well and the slide down in 2001-2002 into 2003. I also rember the 3,000 point upside into Feb.'04.

 

[Show-me]

C&P from one of Robo's articles. That would be a -0.825% per day YTD loss. What a way to start the New Year. We did break a record on the First Five Days. Now I wonder if we break a record for the entire month of January.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has now declined 18.2% from its all time highs back in October, and 9.9% of this decline has occurred in 2008, in only 12 trading days.

 

[James48843]

The worse month for the C fund since 1988 was Aug 1998. Second worse was Sept 2002. Look what happened in the months that followed. So far the C fund for Jan 2008 is down -9.12.

1998
Aug....-14.47
Sept...6.33
Oct....8.19
Nov....6.04
Dec....5.76

2002
Sept....-10.87
Oct....8.77
Nov....5.87
Dec...-5.85

The third biggest fall came in 1990, when Iraq invaded Kuwait in August. Here is what happened after that:
1990:
June -0.71
July-0.36
August-8.65
September -4.85
October-0.46
November+6.36
December+2.72

So we had a down month of -8.65, followed by a negative -4.85, a negative 0.46, before it turned around.

Unfortunately, we don't have the same kind of data available for the S and I fund equivilant from back then- they didn't exist yet.

So one question to ponder is: If there is a bounce back, where should one be to gain the most? C, S or I?

 

[James48843]

Is New York stock exchange closed on Monday for Martin Luther King day?