C-fund

[vectorman]

A better look at chart above, SP500 2 month with 200ma and resistence line. The horizonal line is taken from the 1459.63 closing price on 2/20/07.

View attachment 1962

 

[James48843]

I think we will retest that area around 1410 on thursday. that might be a good place to buy back in.

 

[Christopher]

Move over some, Birch...the lilly pad was too crowded as it was, and now it's worse with that stinkin' penny showing up a day early. I KNOW, I KNOW, I can hear ya..."be right and sit tight - and don't let those G and F funds bite, bite, bite"... :suspicious:

 

[Birchtree]

There is plenty of room in the C fund - it's so undervalued and contrarian. But if you look out 12 months from now the SPX could conceivably be 34.56% higher which puts it at 2060. Fabijo was being conservative with a projection of 1800.

 

[Sonic]

Any one like rockets, we have take off!

 

[camper65]

Any one like rockets, we have take off!

Thank You Mr. Buffet! (sp)

 

[James48843]

Ok-

I am looking at the S&P 500 chart, and it is beginning to tell me we are about to reverse direction a little.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$SPX

What I see in this chart:

1. Volume down

2.Narrowing range- tight squeeze tells me a move is about to happen. We MAY get another uptick to 1550 in the next couple days, and if we do, I think that is about it for a while. It is equally possible we've hit the top, and the next move will be down. I've got to be prepared to move out quickly if that happens in the next couple days.

3. CMF is flattening out.

4. On the point and figure chart, we are now at eleven units into the up cycle., and that's about the average time before a reversal. I would think if we get a little more up (12 or 13 units) we will have hit the short term top.

5. Should that happen, then I am looking for and will be ready for a slide back down to the 1490 - 1480 level to set the foundation for the next run. It may not make it back down that far based on the chart- so I may just move off to the sidelines at 1550, and wait until it drops to 1510-to-1520 or so to buy back in.

Anyway, that's how I am thinking tonight.

 

[James48843]

What a difference a day makes.

Now I am looking at the same chart, a day later, and thinking exactly the opposite. I am thinking a huge upside to 1580 or 1590 is close at hand.

I guess I don't really have a clue.

Buying in more, and hanging on tight. Riding the bucking bronco!

 

[Birchtree]

IMHO the smart money has been long the last 1500 points. Anyone who bought the summer lows or got on along the way is not going to sell this market until January 2nd. Time in the market is typically more rewarding than timing the market - so says Ferdinand.

 

[James48843]

Again, looking at the "stockcharts.com" S&P 500, I am thikning again we are going back down to between 1490 and 1510 in the next couple days. the 1490 is if times were "normal'. The 1510 number because I think people willo jump back in if it reaches the 1510, and as long as people believe the economy is healthy. Then we'll pop back up fairly quickly.

A real roller coaster for those who are trying to play "capture the ride."

 

[fedgolfer]

Will the 20 day SMA hold as support for the S&P? To me that's the big question and we won't find an answer till well after the IFT deadline... it's always a little scary buying/holding at the support levels, isn't it?! Charts look ugly though, a lot of similarities between now and the last sell off. But I also remember the big boys showing distribution in Financials, like they are now, only to be snagged up later.... just on a shorter time frame... looks like GS may be going through its handle now, OR its a DCB. Citibank is definitely seeing short interest, which is exactly what the big boys want before they pull the big whamo.

 

[fedgolfer]

Will the 20 day SMA hold as support for the S&P?

looks like it held the 20 day SMA -- for today. Let's hope the spinning top doji signals a reversal like it did on 9/10 (also on the 20 day SMA).

 

[James48843]

Looks like we are headed down again.

Will 1500 support level hold?

Another support exists at or about 1490.

 

[James48843]

OK- the 1500 didn't hold.

But we've bounced once now off the 1490, as expected.

Now we should get another couple points north, and then comes the real test. Will we get a second bounce off the 1490, or will it fall below that?

If it holds, that's a good sign.

If not, then look out below.

 

[Ed_the_Fed]

The same holds true for the DW4500. We are still about 8 points above Monday's low so I think the SP500 will be the real test. If it breaks down, then DW4500 will follow. Tough call on whether to be in the market right now. Too much downside IMHO. I am willing to sacrifice a little gain to avoid a huge loss.

 

[James48843]

"Be patient, therefore, brothers, until the Lord's coming. See how the farmer waits for the precious fruit of the earth, being patient with it until it receives the early and the late rains. You too must be patient." James 5:7

 

[budnipper1]

"Be patient, therefore, brothers, until the Lord's coming. See how the farmer waits for the precious fruit of the earth, being patient with it until it receives the early and the late rains. You too must be patient." James 5:7

I think all our "prodigal sons" may be headed to the G fund.

 

[$onny]

"Be patient, therefore, brothers, until the Lord's coming. See how the farmer waits for the precious fruit of the earth, being patient with it until it receives the early and the late rains. You too must be patient." James 5:7

James 4:9 (rounded)

Grieve, mourn and wail. Change your laughter to mourning and your joy to gloom.

 

[Birchtree]

If the C fund does a retest of the August lows it will be at $15.75 - that's an excellent price to accumulate shares. But don't worry it won't go back to that price - unfortunately. The S fund would be at $18.81 and the I fund would be at $22.68 - all golden.

 

[James48843]

What a roller coaster.

Well, that was about the third time that 1490 level has been tested, and held. And once again, the afternoon low was higher than the morning low, and once again we finish strongly.

That makes me much more comfortable about the future. We've moved down nicely, created a nice bottom, and now I think we'll have a postive future.