C-fund

[DCguy]

It seems chances of CSI dropping below August level are very slim. I think it's just better to buy and hold till the end of this year.

 

[Birchtree]

DCguy,

You're my kind of investor - you think ahead. If the financials have found a bottom (they comprise 23% of the S&P 500) the C fund will wake up.

 

[James48843]

Boy, that C fund just can't decide what it wants to do today, can it?

 

[James48843]

The charts are telling me that tomorrow will continue up in the S&P500.

target for this wave is 1576 to 1590. If it goes over 1576, look for a tiny one day slide back, then perhaps another push up to 1587-1590, and then the S&P takes a nice retrenchment back about 2%.


Can't see any farther ahead than that, but the next two days should see higher to 1575+.

I'm bullish....(uncommon for a bear.)

 

[James48843]

Well, lay down to sleep, and get up the next morning to see your thoughts totally blown away, eh?

Futures looking down this morning.

 

[whitemingo]

Hang tight. 12% made his call.

 

[LimaFox]

Hope 1490 holds up!:blink:

 

[James48843]

We end up green for the day.

The good news- the 1490 held again.

I think it's all up from here.

 

[Bullitt]

Is that a bullish hammer candle I see?

 

[Birchtree]

It is extremely likely that the price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 will drop to 10 or lower some point over the next several years, but this fall in the P/E ratio could be driven more by a rise in earnings than a fall in price. And if you think it is unlikely that the S&P 500's earnings will rise by much over the next several years, consider that the composition of the senior stock index will change. In particular, if commodities are in a secular bull market then 10 years from now oil and other commodity-related stocks - the stocks of companies that are likely to experience very strong earnings growth for many years to come - will probably make up 30% to 40% of the market-cap weighted S&P 500 index. Marathon Oil went into the index already this year.

I'm reminded that in bullish uptrends, price patterns will tend to open lower and gain through out the day.

 

[vectorman]

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=130165&postcount=502

 

[DCguy]

C's down 2.94%..

 

[James48843]

1490 broke.

Next pause on the downside- is in the 1460 range- I expect we'll see that in the morning.

And if 1460 doesn't hold, then the next floor below that- well, I don't want to say it, but it looks like the next floor below that is around 1400 or so.

Not a pretty picture for the next couple days.

 

[charmed855]

1490 broke.

Next pause on the downside- is in the 1460 range- I expect we'll see that in the morning.

And if 1460 doesn't hold, then the next floor below that- well, I don't want to say it, but it looks like the next floor below that is around 1400 or so.

Not a pretty picture for the next couple days.

1430 is another key support level when looking at the weekly and P&F charts.

 

[James48843]

1451 appears to be the new 1490. It's bounced off 1451 twice now.

And we're getting a little pushback here.

Maybe we'll get luck and close in the green today. If we do, then I think the panic is over.

Got my fingeres crossed for a leveling out here.

 

[James48843]

Here is the REAL danger:

IF the 1440 line is crossed, we have a fundemental shift in direction, and the four year bull market will traverse into a bear.


If that 1440 mark is crossed- then I have NO IDEA where the bottom will be, and it will be some time before we will know.

 

[vectorman]

If it holds, should be a good run. If it doesn't, its going to hurt.

View attachment 2643


http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/qu...tes/update.asp&fontsize=&LaunchedWindow=FALSE

 

[James48843]

The P&F chart is now showing a new S&P 500 Price Objective of 1350.

See you down there.

I'm on the sidelines. I HOPE it doesn't make it that far down, but you NEVER KNOW.

 

[James48843]

It is extremely likely that the price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 will drop to 10 or lower some point over the next several years, but this fall in the P/E ratio could be driven more by a rise in earnings than a fall in price. And if you think it is unlikely that the S&P 500's earnings will rise by much over the next several years, consider that the composition of the senior stock index will change.

Birch- what do you estimate the P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is today? I can't seem to find it anywhere.

And I know it is nowhere near as low as it was in the early 90's, so I am thinking we'll not go down below 10. I think we're bound to have enough diversity in the market that stockholders today will not let it get below 10.

Thanks in advance for your answer.

 

[Birchtree]

The S&P 500s overall P/E is 16.4 versus 16.2 a year ago. What's interesting is that financial firms in the S&P 500 index now trade at just 11.6 times the past four quarter's earnings; the price to earnings ratio a year ago was a still low 13.5. Cheap by any measure. I mean banks and brokers have gotten hit so badly by subprime mortgage troubles that billion-dollar write-downs now seem commonplace. If financial firm P/E ratios are down, and the overall P/E is basically unchanged, that means that nonfinancial firm valuations are higher - especially since financial firms contribute an outsize quarter of S&P 500 earnings. Excluding financial firms, the index's price to earnings ratio is 18.2 compared with 17.2 a year ago. It looks like these ratios will be decreasing in the near future.