burrocrat's Account Talk

[burrocrat]

burros-ark

burros-ark housekeeping:

burros-ark is a hybrid system based mainly on el vira (spanish for the volatility indicator risk assessment). el vira is a number between 1 and 10 on an aggressive market scale with 1 being omg it's gonna crash and 10 being come here so i can kick your ass. el vira is computed by aggregating 5 indicator signals for each denizen, plus sentiment, momentum, and contarian chutzpah with a little humor mixed in.

animal is general investment style.
ytd% is current performance.
allocation is % long equities (c,s,i) expressed as a number between 1 and 100.
direction is change from last week's holdings expressed as < (sell, to bonds, g,f), > (buy, to equities, c,s,i) and * (hold, pucker up this could get tight).
description is the sentiment, stars alignment, gut feel, and art part.

vpadd for short (vira, performance, allocation, direction, description).

any questions? write them down and put them in that round basket at the end of the bar.

everybody starts the new year at el vira 5 with no direction because i am all about fresh starts.

enjoy, and i hope you make lots of free money.

 

[burrocrat]

burros-ark

burros-ark update: the system entered the year in g fund. one trading day under the belt and everybody gets a reset to el vira 5 with no direction, this is your new normal. this is a very dangerous market right now if you ask me, but let's see what the numbers say.

alevin/mouse: 5, 0.03%, 5, *, risky
amoeba/turtle: 5, 0.01%, 0, *, none o ya
birchtree/elephant: 5, (0.01%), 100, *, bidness
bmnevue/penguin: 5, (0.10%), 100, *, bidness
boghie/lion: 5, (0.03%), 80, *, risky
burrocrat/donkey: 5, 0.01%, 0, *, none o ya
fireweathermet/racoon: 5, (0.10%), 100, *, bidness
jonfresno/kangaroo: 5, (0.18%), 100, *, bidness
jpcavin/cougar: 5, (0.11%), 100, *, bidness
jth/wolf: 5, (0.18%), 100, *, bidness
mrbowl/owl: 5, (0.02%), 100, *, bidness
pessoptimist/squrrel: 5, (0.01%), 60, *, risky
whipsaw/hawk: 5, (0.11%), 100, *, bidness

el vira = 65-65 = 0/65 = 0%. hold.

note: arkers are net long 73%, this would probably trigger a contrarian sentiment sell signal in a normal week considering awful global geopolitics and commodities threats. this is a very dangerous market, which way does it break? be careful out there.

 

[Boghie]

Re: burros-ark

burros-ark housekeeping:

burros-ark is a hybrid system based mainly on el vira (spanish for the volatility indicator risk assessment). el vira is a number between 1 and 10 on an aggressive market scale with 1 being omg it's gonna crash and 10 being come here so i can kick your ass. el vira is computed by aggregating 5 indicator signals for each denizen, plus sentiment, momentum, and contarian chutzpah with a little humor mixed in.

animal is general investment style.
ytd% is current performance.
allocation is % long equities (c,s,i) expressed as a number between 1 and 100.
direction is change from last week's holdings expressed as < (sell, to bonds, g,f), > (buy, to equities, c,s,i) and * (hold, pucker up this could get tight).
description is the sentiment, stars alignment, gut feel, and art part.

vpadd for short (vira, performance, allocation, direction, description).

any questions? write them down and put them in that round basket at the end of the bar.

everybody starts the new year at el vira 5 with no direction because i am all about fresh starts.

enjoy, and i hope you make lots of free money.

I think you got something here...

You don't need to 'pay' me anything for the monthly/quarterly/annual stuff. I have fun doing it. The only pain is getting the numbers from a spreadsheet to Word. Maybe JTH can describe how he posted an actual spreadsheet to the thread so I could get rid of that issue.

I have been thinking that my directional arrows don't really work because I do my thing monthly. Many of you chaps make significant moves within that time period. This happened in the above stats for two of you. I think the best thing I could do now is not actually place you based on current allocation but instead based on your long term allocation. For example my (Lion) long term risk (now with seven years of data) is 13.31%. The closest L-Fund allocation (super science) that comes to is the L-2030. The Bikini. That also matches closest to my retirement date which is important. Had you chaps really caught me ten years ago you would have never really seen G/F holdings - now I am a geezer that has to think about risk. I really don't want my account to swing 37% because for some reason swings seem to dump me in the mud. Anyway I think my catfishing brazilian bikini photo really emphasizes my modest estimation of my godlike beauty - doesn't it!!!

Now, many have asked: How can I use this crappola? Well, here is a thought. Let us say your long term strategy nets you a risk number right around your retirement year's L-Fund. That is good because that is supposedly what your risk should be - eh. But, then we find that for some reason we are lagging on the 'Return' part. That means that our allocation does not have a good risk/return. We are taking too much risk for too little return. Or maybe our current return/risk is lower than our retirement L-Fund marker. At that point you have to ask yourself if you are market timing in a projected downturn. If you are than all good, if you are not than you might want to look at your allocation. Conversely for the upside. I think I should have paid more attention to this stuff in 2014. I lagged the market badly for the second year in a row. I don't think all of the lag is risk management - I think I let politics and geo-stuff get the best of me again. My recent stats are making me review my three allocations - they seem way to risk adverse and not separated enough from each other to be of significant use. We shall see...

I think I will also use Burro's 'direction' symbol to mark the moves of the month. I will try to place the weekly direction symbols in a column. For example: *<*> would mean Hold/Bail/Hold/Risk. That would mean that the animal dozed one week, ran to cover the next, dozed in his cave on the third, and started hunting on the fourth. We shall see how it goes.

 

[JTH]

Re: burros-ark

I think you got something here...

You don't need to 'pay' me anything for the monthly/quarterly/annual stuff. I have fun doing it. The only pain is getting the numbers from a spreadsheet to Word. Maybe JTH can describe how he posted an actual spreadsheet to the thread so I could get rid of that issue.

I have been thinking that my directional arrows don't really work because I do my thing monthly. Many of you chaps make significant moves within that time period. This happened in the above stats for two of you. I think the best thing I could do now is not actually place you based on current allocation but instead based on your long term allocation. For example my (Lion) long term risk (now with seven years of data) is 13.31%. The closest L-Fund allocation (super science) that comes to is the L-2030. The Bikini. That also matches closest to my retirement date which is important. Had you chaps really caught me ten years ago you would have never really seen G/F holdings - now I am a geezer that has to think about risk. I really don't want my account to swing 37% because for some reason swings seem to dump me in the mud. Anyway I think my catfishing brazilian bikini photo really emphasizes my modest estimation of my godlike beauty - doesn't it!!!

Now, many have asked: How can I use this crappola? Well, here is a thought. Let us say your long term strategy nets you a risk number right around your retirement year's L-Fund. That is good because that is supposedly what your risk should be - eh. But, then we find that for some reason we are lagging on the 'Return' part. That means that our allocation does not have a good risk/return. We are taking too much risk for too little return. Or maybe our current return/risk is lower than our retirement L-Fund marker. At that point you have to ask yourself if you are market timing in a projected downturn. If you are than all good, if you are not than you might want to look at your allocation. Conversely for the upside. I think I should have paid more attention to this stuff in 2014. I lagged the market badly for the second year in a row. I don't think all of the lag is risk management - I think I let politics and geo-stuff get the best of me again. My recent stats are making me review my three allocations - they seem way to risk adverse and not separated enough from each other to be of significant use. We shall see...

I think I will also use Burro's 'direction' symbol to mark the moves of the month. I will try to place the weekly direction symbols in a column. For example: *<*> would mean Hold/Bail/Hold/Risk. That would mean that the animal dozed one week, ran to cover the next, dozed in his cave on the third, and started hunting on the fourth. We shall see how it goes.

Thanks, I don't post tables into the forum, because I lose the formatting from excel during the conversion process. I just copy the excel rows/columns I want and then paste them into Paint, and save as .png

As long as the picture is no larger than 850 by 668 and not more than 97.7kb and saved as a .png, it will post with clarity. Often I have to re-size my excel sheets, to cram everything in.

 

[burrocrat]

Re: burros-ark

I think I will also use Burro's 'direction' symbol to mark the moves of the month. I will try to place the weekly direction symbols in a column. For example: *<*> would mean Hold/Bail/Hold/Risk. That would mean that the animal dozed one week, ran to cover the next, dozed in his cave on the third, and started hunting on the fourth. We shall see how it goes.

thanks for the feeeback, yes you got it! at first i though of using parenthesis. for example, out/hold/hold/in would be represented as: (**) , but it just didn't seem right.

 

[burrocrat]

Re: burros-ark

As long as the picture is no larger than 850 by 668 and not more than 97.7kb and saved as a .png, it will post with clarity. Often I have to re-size my excel sheets, to cram everything in.

hmmm, 850 x 668 and <97.7kb? maybe that explains why all my graphics of bikinis never make it past the filters.

 

[burrocrat]

Re: burros-ark

well well, whoa! wow, a dangerous market indeed. and there's not even blood running in the streets yet, just a trickle down the gutter. minus 2 or 3 percent in a few days to start the year is a big hole to dig out of, this might be the year of the trader.

my mind mind tells me get in, but my body is paralyzed and has no desire to pull the trigger. i'm so glad my investing guns are holstered right now. i'm busy out of pocket for work travel for a few days ahead and i am not going to feel bad about any gains or losses in the immediate future and i plan to just keep collecting my pennies in the g fund. pennies are cool sometimes too, you know?

wow. and in the back of my mind i keep hearing this little voice chirping... 'oh yeah, but just wait until you see my next 5% move'. i'm not kidding, it speaks to me like that. this is a very dangerous market.

 

[JTH]

Re: JPCavin just had to ask. Why, oh Lord, why???

It's all good, just a minor pullback, nothing to see here

Over the past 64 years, 39 closed up, so January closes up 61% of the time.

Back in 2009, we lost -8.57% now that was a month to remember.

Back in 1987 we gained 13.18% now that's year's worth of of gains in just 1 month!

 

[Boghie]

Re: JPCavin just had to ask. Why, oh Lord, why???

It's all good, just a minor pullback, nothing to see here

Over the past 64 years, 39 closed up, so January closes up 61% of the time.

Back in 2009, we lost -8.57% now that was a month to remember.

Back in 1987 we gained 13.18% now that's year's worth of of gains in just 1 month!

Nice pick for your years - yuk, yuk. Hidden discussion on 'The January Effect'. Hope for another 2009:cheesy:

 

[burrocrat]

Re: burros-ark

burros-ark update: well well well, what a week. every single arker but one is negative on the year, but i think each one is probably tickled they are only down in the neighborhood of minus 1% at this point. wheeee! that was some ride. there was a great opportunity for a quick score there wednesday and thursday, but i have to be honest, i didn't even feel it, no way was i going to jump into that maelstrom. whooo! that is one storm i'm glad i missed. i was quite content to just stand on the side and pee a little in my shorts. wow. to the credit of the arkers, nobody panicked and booked a big loss, but most everyone is still exposed and i don't know if the underlying market fundementals look any better next week. the only 2 who moved are alevin out and ameoba in. buckle up buttercups, this could be an exciting one. i am quite happy with my nickel to the good, small change i know, but ca ching, i'll take it.

mouse: 4, (0.01%), 0, <, ca clunk
turtle: 7, (0.06%), 70, >, ca clunk
elephant: 5, (1.55%), 100, *, ca clunk
penguin: 9, (0.81%), 100, *, ca clunk
lion: 7, (0.73%), 80, *, ca clunk
donkey: 5, 0.05%, 0, *, ca ching
racoon: 9, (0.81%), 100, *, ca clunk
kangaroo: 9, (1.00%), 100, *, ca clunk
cougar: 9, (1.10%), 100, *, ca clunk
wolf: 9, (1.00%), 100, *, ca clunk
owl: 9, (0.63%), 100, *, ca clunk
squrrel: 5, (0.37%), 60, *, ca clunk
hawk: 9, (0.85%), 100, *, ca clunk

el vira = 93-65 = 28/65 = 43%. indicates extreme bullishness, although i suspect it is more a function of bullheadedness and refusal to take the loss. that takes balls. total sell signal. sell sell sell. the system will remain in g fund this week.

good luck, it will be interesting to see who cuts and runs first, and why. wheeee! i feel a little sick, like i ate too much cotton candy before getting on the roller coaster.

 

[burrocrat]

Re: I think I hate the AutoTracker

wow. massive futures dump this morning, based on big bank earnings and those guys always trade ahead of the pack.i would like to try to catch a spike but i don't think this has the 'bounce' potential of the 3% that could've already been gained earlier this month. this smell like capitulation in the making though, going to have to watch close. i am on the sidelines for sure today.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: I think I hate the AutoTracker

DOW -1.4%

Eerily familiar though. Maybe opposite of yesterday. Big down in the AM, Big up in the PM, finish in the middle.
Either way I bailed yesterday. I thought I would catch it on an up day, well we know how that worked out.:laugh:

 

[burrocrat]

Re: burros-ark

wow. again. this is a pretty damn interesting start for the year. negative approximately 2% cumulative for the longs. and there is no relief in sight. this market is coiled for a big move. i know it. i just wish i knew which direction.

meanwhile, mouse of all folks is sitting pretty leaning over the bow rail boobs out. ha! life is strange. i never play with the f fund. there is danger in every fund though as f might as well be a conservative stock fund at this point and g loses to inflation. there is nowhere to run.

it might be time to get in the water soon, but it is a mean river, this one. swim at your own risk.

i want to see another huge 2 day move, then maybe i will decide. some folks see the market smile, but i see only a smirk.

wheee!

 

[burrocrat]

Re: burros-ark

also, i meant to add 'hope springs eternal', but whoever says that is either a helpless optimist or a liar. crash baby! burn!

 

[pmaloney]

Almost a stereoisomer but not quite resulting in a larger loss instead of a small gain.
Hopefully a little more panic will create good footing for a big rise.

 

[burrocrat]

Re: burros-ark

see what happens when a national bank flexes its muscle? the silly swiss, boom. how many leveraged traders would get caught on the wrong end of the stick if the fed surpised in an unexpected direction? this mutha is just getting warmed up.

 

[burrocrat]

Re: burros-ark

in only 80 more posts i am set to go to the next title level above 'tsp elite', which is going to be 'tsp gnu'. a gnu is a like a bull except for on a different continent. i can't hardly wait, i am so excited to be a tsp gnu! i think i will change my avatar then to reflect my new status.

View attachment 32049

i am trying really hard to not just post a bunch of crap 80 times real quick to get there fast and instead make each post as in depth and thoughtful as the last 7,420. how am i doing?

 

[nnuut]

Re: burros-ark

You're on a ROLL Burro!!!

 

[burrocrat]

Re: burros-ark

ahhh, screw it, i'm just going change my avatar now.

 

[jpcavin]

Re: burros-ark

ahhh, screw it, i'm just going change my avatar now.

Somehow, I gnu you would. :laugh: