burrocrat's Account Talk

[burrocrat]

forget standing in line at the walmart zoo on thursday night to get black friday deals, i just wrapped up my xmas shopping online this morning with doorbuster sales, rebates, and club cards. yeah uh huh, that's right, i been poppin' tags.

 

[burrocrat]

Re: burro's ark

ark update: ahh, it's that time of year when i like to look back on what all i am thankful for. i'm thankful for all the interesting and diverse things my tsptalk investment friends bring to the table, god bless you all, every one. a toast, clink.

arkers vs. indices:
>g: 69%
>f: 31%
>c: 0%
>s: 31%
>i: 92%

alevin/mouse, 9, 0.94%, m, wild turkey (takin' a shot)
amoeba/hare, 4, 1.73%, g, vegetable tray (sittin' there)
birchtree/elephant, 5, 2.30%, m, pecan pie (nuts)
bmnevue/penguin, 3, 13.92%, m, tiramisu (must be sweet)
boghie/lion, 8, 7.44%, m, turkey thigh (showin' some leg)
burrocrat/donkey, 3, 6.34%, g, ham (think you're funny huh?)
fwm/racoon, 2, (11.78%), g, cranberry sauce (i'd be bitter too)
jonfresno/kangarooo, 8, 3.21%, s, mac n cheese (pardon me)
jpcavin/cougar, 2, 7.87%, f, turkey breast (can't touch this)
jth/wolf, 9, 2.73%, c, roll (needs more butter)
mrbowl/owl, 8, 2.84%, s, green beans (a staple)
pessoptimist/squirrel, 6, 8.99%, m, cherry cheesecake (must be tempting to take some off the table)
whipsaw/hawk, 3, 0.80%, g, stuffing (mix it up)

el vira = 75-65 = 10/65 = 15%. holiday spirits abound, buy buy buy.

crazy stuff this week:

mouse goes half in, a bold and unusual move.
wolf goes all in, his record may be decieving but generally he knows what he is doing, and more importantly, why.
cougar goes all out to junk bonds, just when you think you got her figured out.
squirrel is killing it, better than the 8% any commercial investment advisor the so could find, and i bet she still don't appreciate it, probaby thinks he just got lucky, which if she ain't careful and shut her yap sometimes he just might.

happy holidays.

 

[burrocrat]

Re: burro's ark

i wish boghie would swing by with some end-of-the-month cagr analysis.

 

[burrocrat]

Re: JPCavin just had to ask. Why, oh Lord, why???

does anybody here remember back in the day before 3-d first person shooter video games when you used you used to have to use your imagination? we used to play dungeons and dragons (yep i was a nerd).

i had a paladin character named balsar. he was sometimes irreverent but generally on the mark and meant well. i didn't realize it at the time because it didn't exist yet but balsar hated global warming (now climate change, how fast the world moves on).

anyways, it is -5 degrees here right now, which isn't so bad if the wind ain't blowing. and goldam that wind is howling, wind chill around -25. balsar cold.

 

[Boghie]

Your Wish is My Command...

Oh Burro,



Lord of Minos... Uh, that's right, you are a burro not a bull - uh, oh well... Anyway, your wish is my command.

Annual Returns of Ark Members:



CAGR of Ark Members:



And, here is some very self-serving and gratuitous observations that will probably embarrass me in the near future. I will use myself because I am doing pretty well at this point and because I will probably tank in the near future. So NOW is the time to talk it up. Plus, someone will probably sue me if I smack on them:toung:. So here goes a discussion on using these stats:

The best marker for me is the L2030. By that, I mean some super science financial types designed an allocation that should get me the best blend of return to risk to meet my retirement needs by my retirement date. My retirement date is about 2030 - so here goes. Using the mighty and top secret Quicken Asset Allocation tool as well as the real returns from 2008 onward (using Tom's AutoTracker Data) the numbers are:

• Quicken Annual Return: 8% (which includes inflation)
• Quicken Annual Risk: 8%
• Thus, according to Quicken the L2030 return should fall between +0% and +16% two out of three years. The remaining year falls outside that range.

Since 2008 the L2030 actual numbers from the AutoTracker are:

• AutoTracker Annual Return: 6% (which includes inflation)
• AutoTrackerAnnual Risk: 14%
• Thus, according to AutoTracker the L2030 return should fall between -8% and +20% two out of three years. The remaining year falls outside that range.

Since 2008 Boghie's actual numbers from the AutoTracker are:

• Boghie's AutoTracker Annual Return: 9% (which includes inflation)
• Boghie's AutoTrackerAnnual Risk: 13%
• Thus, according to Boghie's AutoTracker the return should fall between -4% and +22% two out of three years. The remaining year falls outside that range.

What does this stuff mean? It means that I am beating my marker by 3% over the short haul (granted, that includes a very crappy 2008 - but it is still only seven years) and that I am beating the long term (40 years - 60 years [F/C/S/I]) annual return of the L2030 by 1%. Those a both very good Alphas. But, beating the Risk number is more important. In that I am only showing a 1% improvement.

Now let us look at JTH's numbers. He is a swinger while I am an allocator. Here goes (I don't think he will sue because he has done quite well):

• JTH's AutoTracker Annual Return: 8% (which includes inflation)
• JTH's AutoTrackerAnnual Risk: 11%
• Thus, according to JTH's AutoTracker the return should fall between -3% and +19% two out of three years. The remaining year falls outside that range.

JTH is matching the short term return of the L2030 while reducing risk (smoothing the curve) by 3%. Awesome - and very different from the way I try to do it. Nice job. And, my guess is that he will jump up the charts this month. His stuff includes much of 2008 as well.

Now, before all the Arkers start strutting let us look at ContrarianJeff's numbers - who has been hibernating for like 18 months or whatever:

• ContrarianJeff's AutoTracker Annual Return: 12% (which includes inflation)
• ContrarianJeff's AutoTrackerAnnual Risk: 13%
• ContrarianJeff's , according to JTH's AutoTracker the return should fall between -1% and +25% two out of three years. The remaining year falls outside that range.

Yowser. And that is with him slumbering in the G Fund all this year and much of last year. I hope he is still active and just being contrarian. Think of it, with the market getting kinda frothy a contrarian will drag his hoard closer to his body and wait for all the excitement to end. Then he will hunt.

 

[burrocrat]

burros-ark

i am pleased to announce that tsptalk has graciously allowed me to have an autotracker entry for my burros-ark trading system. the initial allocation to g fund should show up on the autotracker after close of business tomorrow. it will just sit in the g fund until after xmas when it goes live for the new year.

burros-ark sets an allocation on a weekly basis sometime after the close on friday to be executed prior to the following monday's ift deadline with the transaction recorded at monday's closing prices. it returns values of 'buy' (go long equities of your choice), 'sell' (go to bonds of your choice), or 'hold' (stay where you are at). the system will follow the first signal each month and every signal after that within the limits of the 2 ift per month rules tsp.gov allows us to make with our own money. on the off chance i am out of cell data or internet range and no signal is posted, the system will 'hold' current allocation (yes there are still places in conus where one can completely unplug and i happen to live near and visit some of them from time to time).

burros-ark is a complex hybrid sentiment/informal technical analysis/contrarian model which tracks 65 total variables (5 each for 13 individual ark indicator species).

animal familar is representive of a participant's overall investment style.
score is a number between 1 and 10 with 10 being aggressive relative to current holdings vs. investment style and current market events.
ytd % tracks recent success.
allocation follows which particular fund or funds that arker has choosen to impliment their strategery.
comment is where the magic happens and is based on more sentiment and individual current events and also where the contrarianism comes in.

then it all gets mashed around in my cranial meat computer and out comes (hopefully profitable) investment sausage one may use to make their own choices about where to put their money. that is the disclaimer part.

i have been using my investment performance as a proxy for the ark returns but it's not really a good fit because i regularly try to front run my own indicators and prefer to be in and out of the market quickly for only a few days at a time during periods of high volatility. so maybe this rigid weekly only trading indicator can smooth out and somewhat idiot proof my impatience. maybe not. we'll see.

participation is not really optional because all 13 arkers openly post their trades and participate on the message board so i am free to make of it what i will when i find it in the public domain. but i realize it can be a rough ride sometimes, so if you are a current arker and want off the boat let me know soon so i can find a suitable replacement. also, i should mention i plan to offer a prize to the best performing full-year ark rider for their troubles, thick skin, and humor, but i can't tell you what it is because i don't have it yet.

ok, so all that is left to do now is make big money.

 

[jpcavin]

Re: JPCavin just had to ask. Why, oh Lord, why???

Time to add to your collection?

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Re: JPCavin just had to ask. Why, oh Lord, why???

does anybody here remember back in the day before 3-d first person shooter video games when you used you used to have to use your imagination? we used to play dungeons and dragons (yep i was a nerd).

i had a paladin character named balsar. he was sometimes irreverent but generally on the mark and meant well. i didn't realize it at the time because it didn't exist yet but balsar hated global warming (now climate change, how fast the world moves on).

anyways, it is -5 degrees here right now, which isn't so bad if the wind ain't blowing. and goldam that wind is howling, wind chill around -25. balsar cold.

My Paladin was BreCalmor, still use the name on occasion. Nerds Unite!

 

[bmneveu]

I played about 2 months ago for the first time in 15 years. I was Inigo Montoya, human warrior. I convinced my wife to play too, and surprisingly she did not hate it! She was a halfling ranger with animal training specialty. She wanted to find a horse to train. We never made it that far, but we did slay some rats in an underground tunnel!

 

[bmneveu]

i am pleased to announce that tsptalk has graciously allowed me to have an autotracker entry for my burros-ark trading system. the initial allocation to g fund should show up on the autotracker after close of business tomorrow. it will just sit in the g fund until after xmas when it goes live for the new year.

burros-ark sets an allocation on a weekly basis sometime after the close on friday to be executed prior to the following monday's ift deadline with the transaction recorded at monday's closing prices. it returns values of 'buy' (go long equities of your choice), 'sell' (go to bonds of your choice), or 'hold' (stay where you are at). the system will follow the first signal each month and every signal after that within the limits of the 2 ift per month rules tsp.gov allows us to make with our own money. on the off chance i am out of cell data or internet range and no signal is posted, the system will 'hold' current allocation (yes there are still places in conus where one can completely unplug and i happen to live near and visit some of them from time to time).

burros-ark is a complex hybrid sentiment/informal technical analysis/contrarian model which tracks 65 total variables (5 each for 13 individual ark indicator species).

animal familar is representive of a participant's overall investment style.
score is a number between 1 and 10 with 10 being aggressive relative to current holdings vs. investment style and current market events.
ytd % tracks recent success.
allocation follows which particular fund or funds that arker has choosen to impliment their strategery.
comment is where the magic happens and is based on more sentiment and individual current events and also where the contrarianism comes in.

then it all gets mashed around in my cranial meat computer and out comes (hopefully profitable) investment sausage one may use to make their own choices about where to put their money. that is the disclaimer part.

i have been using my investment performance as a proxy for the ark returns but it's not really a good fit because i regularly try to front run my own indicators and prefer to be in and out of the market quickly for only a few days at a time during periods of high volatility. so maybe this rigid weekly only trading indicator can smooth out and somewhat idiot proof my impatience. maybe not. we'll see.

participation is not really optional because all 13 arkers openly post their trades and participate on the message board so i am free to make of it what i will when i find it in the public domain. but i realize it can be a rough ride sometimes, so if you are a current arker and want off the boat let me know soon so i can find a suitable replacement. also, i should mention i plan to offer a prize to the best performing full-year ark rider for their troubles, thick skin, and humor, but i can't tell you what it is because i don't have it yet.

ok, so all that is left to do now is make big money.

Where can I get me some of that investment sausage? I'd like to incorporate it into my next Italian dish.

 

[burrocrat]

I played about 2 months ago for the first time in 15 years. I was Inigo Montoya, human warrior. I convinced my wife to play too, and surprisingly she did not hate it! She was a halfling ranger with animal training specialty. She wanted to find a horse to train. We never made it that far, but we did slay some rats in an underground tunnel!

ha! too funny, that was how all the adventures seemed to start out if i remember correctly.

if you have ever wondered the age old question 'what kind of d&d character would i be?', this is a good place to find out:

What D&D Character Am I?

 

[PessOptimist]

Re: burro's ark

I am afraid to click on that link.

I used to play some kind of Goddesses of the Phobos. Never got around to D&D.

 

[burrocrat]

Re: burro's ark

I am afraid to click on that link.

it is just a survey. i would like all burros-ark residents to take it as a gut check on my animal familiar assesment for each participant, it might help me understand better narrow my analysis and make us all more investing money. if you do take the survey just be honest, even if it says you are a dwarf with high intelligence but no charisma, not everyone can be an elf queen you know. the world needs orcs too.

 

[JTH]

Re: JPCavin just had to ask. Why, oh Lord, why???

Seriously?

Do you think I have time to answer 128 questions?

 

[burrocrat]

Re: JPCavin just had to ask. Why, oh Lord, why???

Seriously?

Do you think I have time to answer 128 questions?

not really. it was just an idea. the goose can't lay golden eggs all the time. just make something up and lie to me if that works better for you.

 

[PessOptimist]

OK so I took the survey. I never played D&D but it sounds pretty wimpy to me.

I took the time because I have nothing else I will do tonight as I am starting this weeks 50th work hour at oh-dark-hundred.

True Neutral Human Ranger/Sorcerer (4th/4th Level). I hope I don't regret posting this.

PO

 

[burrocrat]

Re: Your Wish is My Command...

it says i am a nuetral good human ranger (7th level).

snap answers without thinking too much and took less than 10 minutes.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Your Wish is My Command...

This probably is not a good thing:

True Neutral Human Paladin/Wizard (4th/3rd Level)

Ability Scores:

• Strength- 12
• Dexterity- 19
• Constitution- 13
• Intelligence- 18
• Wisdom- 17
• Charisma- 14

 

[burrocrat]

Re: JPCavin just had to ask. Why, oh Lord, why???

i find it discouraging that so few folks rose to the challenge, and those that did all qualified their answers. the whole point of the exercise was not what you are (it's ok) and not if other people agree with how you see yourself (that's ok too), but rather if you are ok with and like yourself, even if you are a mean evil stupid dwarf.

This probably is not a good thing

Do you think I have time to answer 128 questions?

I am afraid to click on that link.

i'm still hoping somebody has enough balls to be who they are and say 'yeah that's right i'm a mean stupid evil dwarf and i like myself anyways!' instead of running multiple scenarios until they see something in the mirror they like.

p.s. that usually has less to do with how you look and more to do with how you want to be seen.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

ha! too funny, that was how all the adventures seemed to start out if i remember correctly.

if you have ever wondered the age old question 'what kind of d&d character would i be?', this is a good place to find out:

What D&D Character Am I?

[COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961)]Never played D&D and probably never will. Nonetheless, too curious...Had to take the test. 120 questions..no problem. Only tested once although it was hard to choose an answer at times. I'm a [/COLOR]Neutral Good Human Bard/Wizard (4th/3rd Level)...whatever that means!!