burrocrat's Account Talk

[burrocrat]

if i tole ya once, i tole ya 7,000 times...

yay me!

 

[alevin]

This is a Brazilian (don't let the colors fool you)
View attachment 30980

This is a Russian
View attachment 30981

Now that was genuinely informative. :nuts:

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

I should have known better to come in here... I saw jpcavin post and thought...
well, nevermind

 

[konakathy]

L

Rules:
- Trade what you see, not what you believe
- Don't put stuff in your signature that a Mod doesn't like

"Government exists to protect all people’s rights, not some people’s feelings." - A. Barton Hinkle

Great Tools:
http://www.CreditKarma.com
http://www.Mint.com​

your signature seems to be growing. lots of info.

 

[konakathy]

ark update: i been listening to music more than i usually do this week and i got some tunes stuck in my head, they seem to play over and over. some players are obviously at one extreme or the other, separated themselves from the pack (performance). which is good because you don't want packed. most are in the the middle and hold a lot (frequency) and performance seems to be dependent more on stomach for risk. who knows what it means, i can't understand most of the lyrics anyways. play that funky music white boy, shake that booty.

arkers vs. indices:
>g: 54%
>f: 39%
>c: 8%
>s: 39%
>i: 92%

alevin/mouse, 5, 0.83%, g, sleepin' booty.
amoeba/hare, 6, 73%, m lite, sleepin' booty (recently stirred).
birchtree/elephant, 5, 0.04%, m, firm booty.
bmnevue/penguin, 9, 12.83%, m, kickin' booty.
boghie/lion, 5, 6.06%, m, firm booty.
burrocrat/donkey, 1, 6.21%, g, shakin' booty.
fwm/racoon, 1, (11.86%), g, nursin' booty.
jonfresno/kangarooo, 7, 2.10%, s, shakin' booty.
jpcavin/cougar, 5, 6.62%, m, firm booty.
jth/wolf, 2 1.33%, f, sleepin' booty.
mrbowl/owl, 4, 3.61%, g, shakin' booty.
pessoptimist/squirrel, 5, 7.67%, m, firm booty.
whipsaw/hawk, 2, 0.67%, g, sleepin' booty.

el vira = 58-65 = -7/65 = -11%. increasingly negative sentiment, bail signal confirmed.

What I want to see are pictures. Will Lion be posting pictures of his firm booty this week?

 

[burrocrat]

What I want to see are pictures. Will Lion be posting pictures of his firm booty this week?

near as i can tell boghie is an independent contractor who teleworks on a flexible schedule. i've never even seen him around the office, but that could be because we don't have an office.

i've noticed pictures sometimes draw him out, so you may have to lay a little bait to get lion to pounce.

 

[burrocrat]

This is a Brazilian (don't let the colors fool you)
View attachment 30980

now i understand how to take a garter off, what confuses is me is why put one on in the first place? never could figure out them russians.

and i understand how they put them brasilians on, just like pants, one leg at a time. but what i don't understand is how do you get them off? at minimum that is going to take some unclenching cooperation or else the jaws of life. never could figure out them brasilians either.

but i'm glad they both exist. it takes all kinds.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

your signature seems to be growing. lots of info.

Nope, been this way since they changed the rules on signatures. A good year or so...

I can't change it or it gets reduced to 1 or 2 lines... I'm just not a 1 or 2 line signature kinda guy

 

[ravensfan]

Burro,

I know its been awhile since you raved about the Saxx Underwear, but based on your ravings, I took the plunge today and ordered a few pair. I'll let you know what I think. They were expensive, but if they are as comfortable as you say, well worth the money...Hmmm can't wait!!!

 

[burrocrat]

Burro,

I know its been awhile since you raved about the Saxx Underwear, but based on your ravings, I took the plunge today and ordered a few pair. I'll let you know what I think. They were expensive, but if they are as comfortable as you say, well worth the money...Hmmm can't wait!!!

dude, i have to confess. you will really like the saxx shorts, but i never bought them. they were a gift. adidas are out too, a little 'squeezy' on the standard size chart. jockey is the hot ****.

jockey athletic fiber h fly. mmm, mmmm. wear them warm straight out of the dryer. heaven. i just orderded 2 more pair yesterday.

save the saxx for weddings and funerals, they are a wonder of modern science. and you're gonna need the absolution of a priest after wearing them anyways. one stop shopping. mmm, mmmm.

 

[Boghie]

JPCavin just had to ask. Why, oh Lord, why???

(Cross Posted) Being old and slow – actually very old and slow, I didn't read a message sent to me by JPCavin till just now…

What is the CAGR/IRR? And, how does it relate to the investor?

Well, the Compound Annual Growth Rate/Internal Rate of Return (same thing) is a way of calculating your real returns while incorporating variance (risk). Risk is not necessarily scary unless you are learning about it in 2008 like I did. It can be a good thing because it is in reality variance. Variance from the center point (your average return) to the upside is a good thing – a very good thing. Variance to the downside is not so good. Here is the generally accepted formula for CAGR/IRR:

View attachment 31078

See how it factors in the risk of investing. Why it matters is discussed in the MoneyChimp website. Cactus has had a very good discussion on this as well. Basically, demanding a CAGR from a purveyor of some mutual fund or asset management account can help you determine a risk adjusted annualized return. That is, an allocation that has big swings will have its average return reduced more than one whose variance is smoother. Me likes that. It means that I will not get taken by some chump selling me something that had a 40% return last year and a -20% the year before and calling it an average return of 10%. The CAGR for that account would be 5.83%. They sell you on 10% returns, do not show you the annual returns, and do not tell you that most bail out when it dumps. The dumpers actually bring the return down even further from the CAGR because they lock in losses.

So, if we look at my most recent blather in poor Burro’s thread we see that my:

• Length of Review: 6 years, 10 months
• Average Return: 9.40%
• Risk (Variance): 13.34%
• CAGR or IRR: 8.59%

Is it more proper to sell my allocations as 9.40% which kinda discounts 2008 and 2011 or 8.59% which factors those years in a bit better.
Now let us look at JPCavin’s numbers because she asked:

• Length of Review: 3 years, 10 months
• Average Return: 14.06%
• Risk (Variance): 9.59%
• CAGR or IRR: 13.66%

And compare those to the ‘C Fund’:

• Length of Review: 3 years, 10 months
• Average Return: 15.42%
• Risk (Variance): 12.74%
• CAGR or IRR: 14.72%

What that means JPCavin is that your allocation is taking quite a bit of the variance out of the returns for a small reduction in the average return. However, take this with a huge twenty pound grain of salt. The market has done nothing but go up the past four years and four years is a small sampling size – as is my posted seven years. We old geezers have been embarrassed by documented AutoTracker returns and have had our CAGR ‘adjusted’ by 2008 and 2011. Anyway, your actual long term returns would center at 7% (pre-inflation) and have a variance/risk of 11%. Thus, you have been riding the tide – but it is smart to ride the tide when the tide is coming in. Yummy. But, that means that a normal correction would set you back between -2% through – 13%. Better than just holding a single equity fund, but worse than mixing in some bonds. You are actually wearing dental floss for a swimsuit, but it you are young enough (retire 2050+) and/or fit enough (your six-pack stomach can handle the churn of 2002 – 2003, 2008 without locking in your losses) you will do great. If the second the market dumps by 10% you skip the brazilian, the bikini, the one piece and pull on the full coverage burka than you might want to take some of the long term risk out by holding a little G/F. If you are older than a puppy with thirty years of hard labor ahead of you than you might want to hold a little G/F. If you are in your 50's or 60's than a normal correction will take YEARS off your retirement income. Otherwise, I ain't got no problem with the lovely ladies getting a serious tan. No problem at all - I might join you soon.

Not recommending bonds, they seem topy. But normally they take some of the variance out an allocation. Just keep a watch. If the market corrects (say 10%) than grab some G and maybe F to smooth things out. That is market timing to some extent, but bonds right now seem much more risky than stock to me…

 

[Boghie]

Re: JPCavin just had to ask. Why, oh Lord, why???

A little bait always helps.
Trying on a few brazillian cuts right now... Kinda shy though...

And, Burro, I get every other Friday off - so that is why I blather on some Fridays. I wish I could telework.

 

[jpcavin]

Re: JPCavin just had to ask. Why, oh Lord, why???

A little bait always helps.
Trying on a few brazillian cuts right now... Kinda shy though...

And, Burro, I get every other Friday off - so that is why I blather on some Fridays. I wish I could telework.

It's a little cold today. Watch out for brostbite. :laugh:

 

[burrocrat]

Re: JPCavin just had to ask. Why, oh Lord, why???

It's a little cold today. Watch out for brostbite.

I've never heard of brostbite, is that anything like a cougar bite?

 

[burrocrat]

Re: JPCavin just had to ask. Why, oh Lord, why???

I've never heard of brostbite, is that anything like a cougar bite?

nevermind, i figured it out.

frost bites you get in cold.

cougar bites you get in heat.

 

[burrocrat]

burro's ark

ark update: do you remember that game you played as a kid, hot potato? yeah, investing is like that, you toss the rock back and forth. sometimes you hold it too long and other times you drop it. some trades you run hot and others you run cold. some days are potatoes and some days are gravy.

arkers vs. indices:
>g: 54%
>f: 39%
>c: 8%
>s: 39%
>i: 92%

alevin/mouse, 5, 0.86%, g, cold potato.
amoeba/hare, 7, 0.80%, m, hot potato.
birchtree/elephant, 5, 0.80%, m, cold potato.
bmnevue/penguin, 9, 13.23%, m, gravy.
boghie/lion, 6, 6.36%, m, hot potato.
burrocrat/donkey, 3, 6.26%, g, hot potato.
fwm/racoon, 2, (11.82%), g, baked potato.
jonfresno/kangarooo, 8, 2.38%, s, cold potato.
jpcavin/cougar, 5, 7.16%, m, hot potato.
jth/wolf, 9, 1.26%, g, cold potato.
mrbowl/owl, 3, 3.70%, g, cold potato.
pessoptimist/squirrel, 5, 7.98%, m, hot potato.
whipsaw/hawk, 3, 0.67%, g, cold potato.

el vira = 67-65 = 2/65 = +3%. sentiment flipped positive. net arkers bullish, contrarion signal bearish. je ne sais quoi, who knows, stupid duck says what?

bonus: how the macheen works. if ytd% returns are relatively low are you running cold? not necessarily if you make boocu hot potato trades. if trade frequency is high are you a hot potato? not necessarily if you suck at it and returns are low. get it? me neither, that's where the magic part comes in. for comparison:

hare and elephant both net 0.80%. birch is always in balls deep and never moves (cold), amoeba moves a lot (hot) but mostly is out. which is better? who's to say?

burro, owl, and hawk all hold the same g allocation and trade regularly, but returns indicate which trades are hot or cold.

squirrel holds (cold) a 40/60 mix but is nailing +7.98% (hot). jerk, that continues to aggravate me.

penguin is smoking hot at 13.23% (lap that gravy) vs. racoon at -11.82 (are you baked)? if you average out their returns it comes to [13.23 - 11.82 = 1.4 / 2 = 0.7%]. that is good right? +0.7 means everybody is doing a little better than zero. well all politics aside, from an economic standpoint it makes no difference. 0.7 = 0.7. but it is easy to see where capitalism differs from socialism, and why respective practioners of each economic model feel strongly about it.

 

[PessOptimist]

ark update: do you remember that game you played as a kid, hot potato? yeah, investing is like that, you toss the rock back and forth. sometimes you hold it too long and other times you drop it. some trades you run hot and others you run cold. some days are potatoes and some days are gravy…[snip]
squirrel holds (cold) a 40/60 mix but is nailing +7.98% (hot). jerk, that continues to aggravate me.

It continues to scare me. In one scenario if I was 100% C all year I would be about +12.74%. If I had been G all year it would be +2%. If I had tried playing the swings it would probably be about 0% or less. It's the market, not me.

PO

 

[burrocrat]

Re: burro's ark

ark update: some folks got out when they normally would've stayed in. some folks waded in deeper when they normally would've stayed out. tough to read, who knows? heads or tails? call it in the air.

arkers vs. indices:
>g: 62%
>f: 39%
>c: 0%
>s: 31%
>i: 92%

alevin/mouse, 5, 0.90%, g, tails.
amoeba/hare, 8, 1.38%, m, heads.
birchtree/elephant, 5, 1.88%, m, heads.
bmnevue/penguin, 7, 13.78%, m, heads.
boghie/lion, 6, 7.18%, m, heads.
burrocrat/donkey, 3, 6.30%, g, tails.
fwm/racoon, 2, (11.78%), g, tails.
jonfresno/kangarooo, 9, 3.03%, s, heads.
jpcavin/cougar, 1, 7.27%, g, tails.
jth/wolf, 9, 2.49%, c, heads.
mrbowl/owl, 3, 3.74%, g, tails.
pessoptimist/squirrel, 5, 8.81%, m, heads.
whipsaw/hawk, 3, 0.76%, g, tails.

el vira = 65-65 = 0/65 = 0%. huh? hmmm. hold.

that's the 2nd week in a row now of a basically non-comittal indication. slack tide. lay low, it will turn.

 

[ravensfan]

Re: burro's ark

Burro,

Regarding the Saxx Underwear, I ended up purchasing a pair of Fiesta's and a pair of 24-7s. They are both daily wearers and I can't wait to try a pair out on Monday morning. Being that I retired a few years ago, I currently drive a school bus just to have something to do. I'm hoping these new underwear solves the problem of my underwear riding up my backside by the end of my run. I mean I start out with boxer briefs in the morning but by the end of the day, I'm wearing a thong...Uggh. Hopefully, if I get the results I am anticipating, I'll be replacing my entire inventory with Saxx...A little pricey, but hey, you get what you pay for!!!

 

[burrocrat]

Re: burro's ark

Burro,

Regarding the Saxx Underwear, I ended up purchasing a pair of Fiesta's and a pair of 24-7s. They are both daily wearers and I can't wait to try a pair out on Monday morning. Being that I retired a few years ago, I currently drive a school bus just to have something to do. I'm hoping these new underwear solves the problem of my underwear riding up my backside by the end of my run. I mean I start out with boxer briefs in the morning but by the end of the day, I'm wearing a thong...Uggh. Hopefully, if I get the results I am anticipating, I'll be replacing my entire inventory with Saxx...A little pricey, but hey, you get what you pay for!!!

oh dude, i wish you had said that before! i got the sax 24-7 too, and the well i forget the other name but they are something special.

you will never even make it up the stairs of the bus before they are fitting you like a pair of leapord skin print thongs at a disco on a hot 1970's saturday night.

try not to smile too big. i swear i heard them say i love you while they were caressing and hugging me. and even if they didn't it still felt good.