burrocrat's Account Talk

[burrocrat]

Going to try to do the risk thang today or tomorrow. It's kinda a mess to do. Kinda manual.

please do. the last one you did showed i had similar returns to buy and hold c fund but with less risk. that is a critical piece of the puzzle. thanks in advance cuz.

this investing stuff would be a whole lot easier if only i knew all about just one thing, wouldn't that be something?

 

[Boghie]

Denizens of the Ark...

There has been much movement...



The beasts with the little arrow (->) have changed their allocation since 2014/08/01. JonFresno thinks he looks good in a thong - some of us disagree. But then, if he is a she (who knows on the web) then perhaps more of us will agree. Is there something about this thread that confuses people. I forget...

Those beasts in bright red are taking on more risk than normal. Now, for 'burka on - burka off' JTH it reflects his swinging lifestyle. Right now he is partying. Next week he will be downing:worried:. The racoon seems to be chasing. Hopefully it ain't a big Venezuelan diesel truck - but then again we have all chased those before. Who knows, it might be delivering toilet paper to some government store. Time to stand in line.

I actually marked the elephant as cooler than normal. I think he pulled that risk factor out of the 'Abby Normal' jar - but it seems to work for him.

The owl flew home and donned a nice pair of board shorts. No more speedos for him - at least for a little while. There are children present I like his current style. That is why I am wearing board shorts too. Gotta do a live draft in Fantasy Football today with a bunch of current and former Marines. They tend to frown on the ole' banana hammock. When I wear a speedo it is a very small one - go bold or don't go. If things hold up and maybe get better I'll start hiking things up. The cops always seem to catch me if I try to time the tanning!!!

Now, Burro, how are you ever going to get rid of your tan lines. You spend lots of time in a burka then fly off to Brazil and cavort with the thong donning chickadees for a short time and fly back. Strange lifestyle. Swinger:blink:.

 

[burrocrat]

not a swinger, just a baller.

 

[burrocrat]

boghie, i always appreciate your analysis, those are numbers i can understand and see the relationship between and compare among different arkers/investment styles.

i find it a little disturbing that somewhat risky but calm and balanced buy-and-hold stratgeries beat the market timers over years. i don't like that at all.

because i'm gonna outtrade and beat this dam rigged game, i just know it!

 

[Boghie]

boghie, i always appreciate your analysis, those are numbers i can understand and see the relationship between and compare among different arkers/investment styles.

i find it a little disturbing that somewhat risky but calm and balanced buy-and-hold stratgeries beat the market timers over years. i don't like that at all.

because i'm gonna outtrade and beat this dam rigged game, i just know it!

The numbers will mean more as time goes on.

I have under-performed my 'marker' (maybe 2030, eh) the last two years. You and JTH are doing quite well... JPCavin hasn't been in the game long enough - what will she do in a major downturn. But, she is making her buffer as I type. Time will tell...

 

[jkenjohnson]

happy labor day everyone. i got to thinking about labor, of all things, and what causes it. now i've only seen labor once, and it didn't look all that easy, but i'm a dad so you love 'em no matter what. then i got to thinking about this market that just won't go down, it keeps bouncing back, like rubber. which, coincidentally, got me thinking about, well condoms, i'm sure there's a connection in there somewhere. did you know they have all kinds of reviews and charts and techniques for figuring out which one to choose? but no matter how you do it, it all comes down to just 3 choices: snugger, standard, or magnum. now i never thought about it before, but maybe improper fit is what causes labor? it's odd how life comes and goes in circles.

alevin/mouse, 5, 0.40%, g, snugger.
amoeba/hare, 5, 1.70%, g, snugger.
birchtree/elephant, 5, 4.48%, mix, magnum.
bmnevue/penguin, 3, 10.26%, g, snugger.
boghie/lion, 3, 5.22%, mix, standard.
burrocrat/donkey, 1, 5.98%, g, snugger.
fwm/racoon, 10, (-5.79%), s, magnum.
jonfresno/kangarooo, 10, 3.09%, s, magnum.
jpcavin/cougar, 5, 7.01%, mix, standard.
jth/wolf, 10, 8.87%, s, magnum.
mrbowl/owl, 7, 2.76% mix, magnum.
pessoptimist/squirrel, 5, 6.32%, mix, standard.
whipsaw/hawk, 1, 2.74%, g, snugger.

el vira = 70-65 = 5/65 = 8%.

so lots of folks went from 'who, l'il ole me?' to 'balls out'. that should be a positive signal right? slow down, not so fast, there is a contrarion play here. this market just keeps bouncing back, but be careful out there kids, sometimes rubber break.

I don't even understand the comparison to condoms.

 

[burrocrat]

I don't even understand the comparison to condoms.

some days you put it to the market, and some days the market sticks it to you.

 

[Whipsaw]

Its been up for well more than 4 hours, should someone call a doctor?

 

[burrocrat]

Its been up for well more than 4 hours, should someone call a doctor?

only if you want the fun to end.

 

[99percent]

Its been up for well more than 4 hours, should someone call a doctor?

Call a doctor? I'm calling everyone!

 

[burrocrat]

ark update: in honor of opening week of the nfl season (go steelers!) i think a little punt, pass, and kick is appropriate. i always sucked at that game though, and the knights of columbus usually sponsored the competition and i know for a fact they don't like me. anyways, pass is light it up go for the score, kick is settle for a few points, and punt is concede (trying to make it easy for ya ken). as always, the comment is a mix of current allocation, trading style, and ytd return.

alevin/mouse, 5, 0.43%, g, punt.
amoeba/hare, 5, 1.73%, g, punt.
birchtree/elephant, 5, 4.65%, mix, pass.
bmnevue/penguin, 3, 10.29%, g, kick.
boghie/lion, 5, 5.15%, mix, kick.
burrocrat/donkey, 1, 6.01%, g, punt.
fwm/racoon, 8, (-5.85%), s, pass.
jonfresno/kangarooo, 10, 3.03%, s, pass.
jpcavin/cougar, 5, 7.19%, mix, i'll pass.
jth/wolf, 10, 8.81%, s, pass.
mrbowl/owl, 7, 2.40% mix, kick.
pessoptimist/squirrel, 5, 6.50%, mix, kick.
whipsaw/hawk, 3, 2.66%, g, punt.

el vira = 74-65 = 9/65 = 14%.

everybody's happy, gunning for the hail mary. that almost never works. i'm.staying on the sidelines until i see a heavy pressure 3 day down swing. go steelers!

 

[Boghie]

Now I get to ask questions. Assuming this is a technical:

staying on the sidelines until i see a heavy pressure 3 day

What is a 'heavy pressure 3 day', and what does one do when one sees it?

 

[burrocrat]

Now I get to ask questions. Assuming this is a technical:



What is a 'heavy pressure 3 day', and what does one do when one sees it?

-1.5-2% day one, -0.5%. day two, roller coaster pit of the stomach drop day 3 at -2% right out of the gate on the open. heavy 3 day down pressure.

if one sees that then one pushes all their chips in before noon on day 3. dream profit scenario, no way to lose. it will bounce back on days 4 and 5 for a quick 2-4% gain. if it doesn't bounce right back at least you missed out on the first 5% haircut. if it never bounces back then it don't matter, the digital money flying through the ether at light trading speed was worthless to begin with. get your rocks and sticks and mud huts here.

that is the market action i look for. that cycle. rarely does it happen over such a great range 6%. it does happen frequently within a tighter range say 1-2.5%. that is your money maker right there, if it flashes and you see it then don't hesitate or overthink, just hit it. then gtf out, back to the bunker, count and stack your new supply of mre's or cans of alpo, clean your trading guns. you only get to shoot them once a month. be ready.

that is my entire trading strategery in a nutshell. i depend on a range of tsp investor's sentiment and allocation to inform me when a good wave might be coming. if you've spent time on a boat or the flat bare prairie then you know the wind always changes just before a storm hits. that is what you watch for.

 

[burrocrat]

p.s. i don't think that qualifies as a technical.

 

[Boghie]

-1.5-2% day one, -0.5%. day two, roller coaster pit of the stomach drop day 3 at -2% right out of the gate on the open. heavy 3 day down pressure.

if one sees that then one pushes all their chips in before noon on day 3. dream profit scenario, no way to lose. it will bounce back on days 4 and 5 for a quick 2-4% gain. if it doesn't bounce right back at least you missed out on the first 5% haircut. if it never bounces back then it don't matter, the digital money flying through the ether at light trading speed was worthless to begin with. get your rocks and sticks and mud huts here.

that is the market action i look for. that cycle. rarely does it happen over such a great range 6%. it does happen frequently within a tighter range say 1-2.5%. that is your money maker right there, if it flashes and you see it then don't hesitate or overthink, just hit it. then gtf out, back to the bunker, count and stack your new supply of mre's or cans of alpo, clean your trading guns. you only get to shoot them once a month. be ready.

that is my entire trading strategery in a nutshell. i depend on a range of tsp investor's sentiment and allocation to inform me when a good wave might be coming. if you've spent time on a boat or the flat bare prairie then you know the wind always changes just before a storm hits. that is what you watch for.

I'll mark this one. Thanks...

This is a more short term version of my more mid term allocation strategy. I'm waiting for a 5% - 7% downward adjustment and will then move a 1/3rd of my G/F assets into C/S/I, then wait till another 5% and migrate another third. That last third is a buffer and a little alpha to catch an obvious rebound. The thought is much the same but I will run like a little schoolgirl with a Texas Chainsaw Guy chasing me somewhere between the 12% and 15% mark. Don't like those big dumps.

 

[burrocrat]

when those big dumps happen you just sit tight and grin right into the wind, bring it! like the world is going to hell and wheeeee! what a ride! that's called birchtree investing.

it will always come back around, except for one time, and then it won't matter.

as long as you are vertical you are alive and winning!

I'll mark this one. Thanks...

This is a more short term version of my more mid term allocation strategy. I'm waiting for a 5% - 7% downward adjustment and will then move a 1/3rd of my G/F assets into C/S/I, then wait till another 5% and migrate another third. That last third is a buffer and a little alpha to catch an obvious rebound. The thought is much the same but I will run like a little schoolgirl with a Texas Chainsaw Guy chasing me somewhere between the 12% and 15% mark. Don't like those big dumps.

 

[Whipsaw]

, ...the comment is a mix of current allocation, trading style, and ytd return.

Trading style! :laugh: I think a Hawaiian shirt with a striped tie and spectator shoes is about right! :nuts:

 

[burrocrat]

Trading style! :laugh: I think a Hawaiian shirt with a striped tie and spectator shoes is about right! :nuts:

i can't call up a picture of that in my mind. do you have any visual aids? what are spectator shoes? is that a compliment? what about shorts? don't i get any shorts?

 

[burrocrat]

I'll mark this one. Thanks...

This is a more short term version of my more mid term allocation strategy. I'm waiting for a 5% - 7% downward adjustment and will then move a 1/3rd of my G/F assets into C/S/I, then wait till another 5% and migrate another third. That last third is a buffer and a little alpha to catch an obvious rebound. The thought is much the same but I will run like a little schoolgirl with a Texas Chainsaw Guy chasing me somewhere between the 12% and 15% mark. Don't like those big dumps.

day one of the cycle is established at ~(1%). the range and depth of negative action is light pressure is not heavy down then. maybe a 3 day range of -1 to -3 %. tomorrow then i want to see a ~(0.3) close. and thursday morning out of the gate a solid ~(1.0%) and looking gloomy, pull the trigger before noon ET.

if that happens i would prefer a flat afternoon thursday with a little tail up into the close. or at least a flat friday. then mon-wed run it up 1.5% and bail noon wednesday.

that is the setup. we'll see. if the downs don't happen along those lines or are not congruent with the 1-3% range, it changes the scenario.

but i'm looking to buy in cob thursday. c'mon honey one time. hit it.

 

[burrocrat]

are these considered spectator shoes? the tie is there but wrong shirt and no shorts. am i close? i like tequila.