burrocrat's Account Talk

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100% g cob today.

hit and git. crazy stuff. this market is wild. i think it's going to crash. i hope it holds on for a gain today so i can get off this ride with a positive.
 
JTH said:
Someone on that list is all sack and no groceries...
Click to expand...

hmmmm. sounds like an accurate description of me. Usually, the S fund is the best place to be when the updraft occurs. Since my timing has been horrible, I decided to get on, strap in, and wait, even though takeoff may not be for a long long time. I am confident that the groceries will come. But, honestly, when I'm sitting here near zero after 7+ months you really can't tell anything from my moves or comments. I'm not bad enough to be a contrarian indicator and certainly not good enough to mimic.
 
Whipsaw said:
Fantastic scalp my friend! :nuts:
Click to expand...

i'm not so sure about that. i picked up about 1% on the deal, but i took a hit on the front end getting in too soon and futures indicate i'm going to leave some gains on the table by getting out too early as well. premature etradeulation, (p.e.t. for short).

i should finish august just shy of 6% ytd, 2% behind where i'd like to be at this point. 4 months to go in the year and i'd like to get another 6%. that is a pretty tall order. it took me 8 months to get 6, and grabbing another 6 in 4 months is probably not going to happen, but it won't stop me from trying.
 
burrocrat said:
i'm not so sure about that. i picked up about 1% on the deal, but i took a hit on the front end getting in too soon and futures indicate i'm going to leave some gains on the table by getting out too early as well. premature etradeulation, (p.e.t. for short).

i should finish august just shy of 6% ytd, 2% behind where i'd like to be at this point. 4 months to go in the year and i'd like to get another 6%. that is a pretty tall order. it took me 8 months to get 6, and grabbing another 6 in 4 months is probably not going to happen, but it won't stop me from trying.
Click to expand...

I heard they have a little blue pill out for premature etradeulation. :D
 
burrocrat said:
i'm not so sure about that. i picked up about 1% on the deal, but i took a hit on the front end getting in too soon and futures indicate i'm going to leave some gains on the table by getting out too early as well. premature etradeulation, (p.e.t. for short).

i should finish august just shy of 6% ytd, 2% behind where i'd like to be at this point. 4 months to go in the year and i'd like to get another 6%. that is a pretty tall order. it took me 8 months to get 6, and grabbing another 6 in 4 months is probably not going to happen, but it won't stop me from trying.
Click to expand...

If it is going to be a normal or strong year you will make up the difference in November and December. August, September, October are normally slim pickin's...
 
ark update: sometimes the market leaves you scratching your head. it's been a very interesting week. some unusual things happening to note. nobody is at a personal vira score of 10. several are at an extreme for them conservative allocation or else got there in a hurry.

penguin is ignoring ripe volatility opportunities.
lion moved to a more conservative setup looking for a future buy.
wolf bailed f for g. this is an important event. more on the presumable logic and gravity of the move later.**
hawk got in and out faster than a couple teenagers in the back of a station wagon with the seats folded down out by river on a friday night. do they even still make shaggin wagons?

**wolf logic: we all know the 2 ift limit sucks, and if you are in g or f at the start of a month you can get in long csi and then later bail to f and still pick up a few gains if you are right and the market heads south. wolf has mastered this trick, and his timing ain't bad neither. if you start the month out in f and take your first ift to g, you can still get back in long csi with the 2nd ift, but only out to g on subsequent retreats, not out to f to squeeze out a fraction of a percent better than g. this is very significant. now wolf can get in and out still, but not back out to f, only g. that is a deliberate loss of options on the exit. he does not make a move lightly. what is it he saw that made him forgo his favorite f fund retreat trick. it must've been something big. i would like to know what it is. but i don't need to know what it is to recognize it must be something big and scarey.

yep, sometimes the market leaves you scratching your head. or in my case with my mouth open and a dumb look on my face while picking my belly button. i may not be the only who has outraded themselves this month. (my belly button is an innie by the way, but i am quite content to be outtie the market right now).

alevin/mouse, 4, 0.29%, g, outtie.
amoeba/hare, 3, 1.94%, g, outtie.
birchtree/elephant, 5, 2.76%, mix, innie.
bmnevue/penguin, 2, 10.14%, g, outtie.
boghie/lion, 4, 3.99%, mix, outtie.
burrocrat/donkey, 1, 5.87%, g, picker.
fwm/racoon, 5, (-7.05%), mix, innie.
jonfresno/kangarooo, 4, 2.73%, g, outtie.
jpcavin/cougar, 5, 4.50%, mix, innie.
jth/wolf, 1, 8.55%, g, outtie.
mrbowl/owl, 6, (0.36%), s, innie.
pessoptimist/squirrel, 5, 4.63%, mix, innie.
whipsaw/hawk, 1, 2.53%, g, outtie.

el vira = 46-65 = -19/65, = -29%. bail, bail, bail!

you don't have to be faster than the bear, just quicker than the next slowest runner.
 
burrocrat said:
ark update: sometimes the market leaves you scratching your head. it's been a very interesting week. some unusual things happening to note. nobody is at a personal vira score of 10. several are at an extreme for them conservative allocation or else got there in a hurry.

penguin is ignoring ripe volatility opportunities.
lion moved to a more conservative setup looking for a future buy.
wolf bailed f for g. this is an important event. more on the presumable logic and gravity of the move later.**
hawk got in and out faster than a couple teenagers in the back of a station wagon with the seats folded down out by river on a friday night. do they even still make shaggin wagons?

**wolf logic: we all know the 2 ift limit sucks, and if you are in g or f at the start of a month you can get in long csi and then later bail to f and still pick up a few gains if you are right and the market heads south. wolf has mastered this trick, and his timing ain't bad neither. if you start the month out in f and take your first ift to g, you can still get back in long csi with the 2nd ift, but only out to g on subsequent retreats, not out to f to squeeze out a fraction of a percent better than g. this is very significant. now wolf can get in and out still, but not back out to f, only g. that is a deliberate loss of options on the exit. he does not make a move lightly. what is it he saw that made him forgo his favorite f fund retreat trick. it must've been something big. i would like to know what it is. but i don't need to know what it is to recognize it must be something big and scarey.

yep, sometimes the market leaves you scratching your head. or in my case with my mouth open and a dumb look on my face while picking my belly button. i may not be the only who has outraded themselves this month. (my belly button is an innie by the way, but i am quite content to be outtie the market right now).

alevin/mouse, 4, 0.29%, g, outtie.
amoeba/hare, 3, 1.94%, g, outtie.
birchtree/elephant, 5, 2.76%, mix, innie.
bmnevue/penguin, 2, 10.14%, g, outtie.
boghie/lion, 4, 3.99%, mix, outtie.
burrocrat/donkey, 1, 5.87%, g, picker.
fwm/racoon, 5, (-7.05%), mix, innie.
jonfresno/kangarooo, 4, 2.73%, g, outtie.
jpcavin/cougar, 5, 4.50%, mix, innie.
jth/wolf, 1, 8.55%, g, outtie.
mrbowl/owl, 6, (0.36%), s, innie.
pessoptimist/squirrel, 5, 4.63%, mix, innie.
whipsaw/hawk, 1, 2.53%, g, outtie.

el vira = 46-65 = -19/65, = -29%. bail, bail, bail!

you don't have to be faster than the bear, just quicker than the next slowest runner.
Click to expand...

Morning b, I bailed, I bailed! just didn't get back in soon enough. story of my life. then I could have quickly bailed again, like you. I need to start reacting as fast to the turnarounds to the upside as I do to the downside. then again, at least I'm still positive for the year so far.

Hey, I don't quite get the innie/outie symbology. color me slow to day.
 
life is full of questions. sometimes i wonder what the markets are going to do. other times i just wonder.

View attachment 29965

you're own your own for more detail than that. but whatever you do, don't google for images of innie or outtie. it gets disturbing pretty quick.
 
everybody can pick their belly button, not everyone can pick the markets. right now most 'arkers' are outties.

when i'm confused it helps if i pick my belly button. i'm good at that. sometimes it has lint in it.
 
I'm still slow, even after checking the bb. half the arkers that are "out", you described as innies. huh?
 
alevin said:
I'm still slow, even after checking the bb. half the arkers that are "out", you described as innies. huh?
Click to expand...


there ain't no explaining it, it's all relative to personal norms. maybe if i had a compter and some spreadsheet time i could do some einstien stuff with it, but i doubt it because i've had both a compter and a spreadsheet before and never made a breakthrough.

generic example: i like to trade. if i stop trading for a long time that is a marker. if i sit in s fund for 3 months straight, am i an innie because i'm long market? or am i outtie because i haven't traded for a while?

that is how el vira works. it's totally subjective how to view the relationship between the parts. fortunately, it's my system so i can see it however i want to. my system cannot stand on its own though because it depends entirely on what other sharp folks do, and more importantly, why?

also, i can't read charts with more than 1 or 2 variables. so i just sling it. it works for me, to the tune of +6% ytd. it's what i do. and i plan to make good money doing it too, so there.
 
burrocrat said:
ark update: sometimes the market leaves you scratching your head. it's been a very interesting week. some unusual things happening to note. nobody is at a personal vira score of 10. several are at an extreme for them conservative allocation or else got there in a hurry.

penguin is ignoring ripe volatility opportunities.
lion moved to a more conservative setup looking for a future buy.
wolf bailed f for g. this is an important event. more on the presumable logic and gravity of the move later.**
hawk got in and out faster than a couple teenagers in the back of a station wagon with the seats folded down out by river on a friday night. do they even still make shaggin wagons?

**wolf logic: we all know the 2 ift limit sucks, and if you are in g or f at the start of a month you can get in long csi and then later bail to f and still pick up a few gains if you are right and the market heads south. wolf has mastered this trick, and his timing ain't bad neither. if you start the month out in f and take your first ift to g, you can still get back in long csi with the 2nd ift, but only out to g on subsequent retreats, not out to f to squeeze out a fraction of a percent better than g. this is very significant. now wolf can get in and out still, but not back out to f, only g. that is a deliberate loss of options on the exit. he does not make a move lightly. what is it he saw that made him forgo his favorite f fund retreat trick. it must've been something big. i would like to know what it is. but i don't need to know what it is to recognize it must be something big and scarey.

yep, sometimes the market leaves you scratching your head. or in my case with my mouth open and a dumb look on my face while picking my belly button. i may not be the only who has outraded themselves this month. (my belly button is an innie by the way, but i am quite content to be outtie the market right now).

alevin/mouse, 4, 0.29%, g, outtie.
amoeba/hare, 3, 1.94%, g, outtie.
birchtree/elephant, 5, 2.76%, mix, innie.
bmnevue/penguin, 2, 10.14%, g, outtie.
boghie/lion, 4, 3.99%, mix, outtie.
burrocrat/donkey, 1, 5.87%, g, picker.
fwm/racoon, 5, (-7.05%), mix, innie.
jonfresno/kangarooo, 4, 2.73%, g, outtie.
jpcavin/cougar, 5, 4.50%, mix, innie.
jth/wolf, 1, 8.55%, g, outtie.
mrbowl/owl, 6, (0.36%), s, innie.
pessoptimist/squirrel, 5, 4.63%, mix, innie.
whipsaw/hawk, 1, 2.53%, g, outtie.

el vira = 46-65 = -19/65, = -29%. bail, bail, bail!

you don't have to be faster than the bear, just quicker than the next slowest runner.
Click to expand...

Interesting observations, you are fairly on target, I'll expound just bit.

The F-Fund for me is used much in the same way as I would use the G-Fund, It’s a temporary place to park, while awaiting the next window to open. My IFT strategies are not based on the G/F funds, they are based on timing entries into the C/S funds and seeking to start each new month invested. I admit, entering August with the F-Fund is not my normal strategy, but at the time I felt justified in protecting myself and for my situation, this was the right decision to make. However, this left me in a predicament where I needed to re-synchronize my IFTs, so I simply chose to lock in the F-Fund’s gains. With .76% in 11 days (that’s very good) I can now jump into G-fund, then wait for the right setup, further confirmation or take the end of month entry into the S-Fund. I have no plans to jump back into the G-Fund a second time this month.

I also think it’s important to understand & accept that the F-Fund does not have a direct tit-for-tat inverse relationship with stocks, just because bonds are ready to fall does not mean stocks are ready to rise.
 
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