burrocrat's Account Talk

[burrocrat]

weekend update:

turtle/amoeba: 3, 2.88%, nice roll, seven, front line winner, seven.
mouse/alevin: 3, 0.77%, that little bit in F is paying off, slow and steady.
elephant/birchtree: 3, 4.26%, eff'n goofy. normal rules of reality bend for this guy. see disney joke. eff'n goofy.
lion/boghie: 4, 3.09%, right bettor.
donkey/burrocrat: 1, 2.14%, still boring, nothing to see here folks, except for a big chicken.
racoon/fwm: 1, (5.31%), still all out.
jonfresno/kangaroo: 3, 2.24%, staying nuetral, but looking for a spot to hop in.
cougar/jpcavin: 4, 3.48%, moving up fast, like a cheetah.
wolf/jth: 5, 9.21%, well f*ck me again! he's like charlie sheen, except for jth is right all the time. ya big jerk.
owl/mrbowl: 5, 1.02%, fortune favors the bold.
squirrel/pessoptimist: 4, 3.14%, again, way to tough it out, it's paying off.

el vira: 36. let's see, 55 max - 33 nuetral = 22 point spread. 36 - 33 = 3. 3/22 = 14%. getting bearish.

that little run on equities is still profitable for some. but the herd is nervous and ready to bolt south at the drop of a hat.

birchtree is eff'n goofy, a total balls out all time watch out he'll run you over and not even blink kind of resolve, don't mess with him.

i'm going to mess with him.

mickey mouse to judge: your honor i want a divorce from minnie. judge to mickey: son, i can't grant you a divorce, i find no grounds to prove she's insane. mickey to judge: you honor, i didn't mean she's crazy, i said she's eff'n goofy.

ba da dum.

 

[nnuut]

every time i visit this thread there is a banner ad at the top for 'rid ex toilet treatment'.

i wonder if the google ai is trying to tell me something?

Mine does AT&T UVerse!

 

[burrocrat]

i hope boghie stops by to do his risk assessment distribution analysis magic trick.

and i jope jth stops by and can sift through all the numbers and crap and make it into a cartoon chart i can understand.

 

[JTH]

weekend update:

turtle/amoeba: 3, 2.88%, nice roll, seven, front line winner, seven.
mouse/alevin: 3, 0.77%, that little bit in F is paying off, slow and steady.
elephant/birchtree: 3, 4.26%, eff'n goofy. normal rules of reality bend for this guy. see disney joke. eff'n goofy.
lion/boghie: 4, 3.09%, right bettor.
donkey/burrocrat: 1, 2.14%, still boring, nothing to see here folks, except for a big chicken.
racoon/fwm: 1, (5.31%), still all out.
jonfresno/kangaroo: 3, 2.24%, staying nuetral, but looking for a spot to hop in.
cougar/jpcavin: 4, 3.48%, moving up fast, like a cheetah.
wolf/jth: 5, 9.21%, well f*ck me again! he's like charlie sheen, except for jth is right all the time. ya big jerk.
owl/mrbowl: 5, 1.02%, fortune favors the bold.
squirrel/pessoptimist: 4, 3.14%, again, way to tough it out, it's paying off.

el vira: 36. let's see, 55 max - 33 nuetral = 22 point spread. 36 - 33 = 3. 3/22 = 14%. getting bearish.

that little run on equities is still profitable for some. but the herd is nervous and ready to bolt south at the drop of a hat.

birchtree is eff'n goofy, a total balls out all time watch out he'll run you over and not even blink kind of resolve, don't mess with him.

i'm going to mess with him.

mickey mouse to judge: your honor i want a divorce from minnie. judge to mickey: son, i can't grant you a divorce, i find no grounds to prove she's insane. mickey to judge: you honor, i didn't mean she's crazy, i said she's eff'n goofy.

ba da dum.

Tough month, I'm mentally drained, it's difficult to sustain this level of performance.

 

[burrocrat]

Tough month, I'm mentally drained, it's difficult to sustain this level of performance.

way to go jth, placed top 5 on the auto tracker. outstanding.

whatever you're doing, you should keep doing it, because it's working for you. and a lot of other folks too.

 

[JTH]

way to go jth, placed top 5 on the auto tracker. outstanding.

whatever you're doing, you should keep doing it, because it's working for you. and a lot of other folks too.

Thanks buddy, this is going to sound like a jerk statement (meaning it is) but I was actually disappointed to come in as 3rd place loser. I could have played more aggressively and produced greater results, but there's always a price to pay if you're wrong, so I played it conservative and considering it was the Month of May, over the long run, I made the right choice.

 

[Boghie]

Low Risk / Low Reward Group (Holding Pattern)

turtle/amoeba:100/0/0/0/0 - 0% Reward, 0% Risk, Expect 0% Return
donkey/burrocrat: 100/0/0/0/0 - 0% Reward, 0% Risk, Expect 0% Return
racoon/fwm: 100/0/0/0/0 - 0% Reward, 0% Risk, Expect 0% Return
jonfresno/kangaroo: 100/0/0/0/0 - 0% Reward, 0% Risk, Expect 0% Return
mouse/alevin: 90/10/0/0 - 0% Reward, 1% Risk, Expect -1% to 1% Return
wolf/jth: 0/100/0/0/0 - 6% Reward, 5% Risk, Expect 1% to 11% Return​

Moderate Risk / Moderate Reward (Balancing Act of the Vanities)

squirrel/pessoptimist: 40/0/60/0/0 - 7% Reward, 9% Risk, Expect -2% to 16% Return
lion/boghie: 12/27/37/13/11 - 8% Reward, 8% Risk, Expect 0% to 16% Return
cougar/jpcavin: 0/0/51/26/23 - 10% Reward, 11% Risk, Expect -1% to 21% Return​

High Risk / High Reward (I think BT is a 24 hr, 7 Day a week, 12 Months a Year Swinger)

elephant/birchtree: 0/0/20/0/80 - 11% Reward, 14% Risk, Expect -3% to 25% Return.
owl/mrbowl: 0/0/0/0/100 - 11% Reward, 18% Risk, Expect -7% to 29% Return.​

Very incisive and important financial notes. Pay attention, dammit!!!:

JTH didn't just quickly yank up the speedos as the lifeguard truck passed by - he draped himself head to foot in a Burka. I snapped this right after his move:

​

I really don't want to post last weeks picture of JTH. Let us just say - the change is amazing:toung:. I will neither confirm nor deny the existence of photos of JTH and MrBowl enjoying the sun. Suffice it to say they might just get a private message or two if I need a quick buck. Just saying:laugh:​

I, however, as an intrepid financial adviser of the zoo have no compunction about publicizing a photo of BT taken at a recent vacation:

​

Anyone questioning his move to the Wild Bunch - even when his allocation didn't change? It must be science​

 

[burrocrat]

outstanding analysis again boghie, thanks for stopping by. i think i'm starting to pick up on the risk/expected return in theory, although how you arrive at the actual numbers is greek to me.

i feel bad for the folks who think investings is only some rigid cold statistical exercise. this social investing is fun and informative.

 

[MrBowl]

It's downright entertaining. I don't understand it all, but my instincts are saying that I'm not alone when I'm flying naked

 

[burrocrat]

weekend update:

before we get started, i think we should all take a moment to recognize that different investing styles and personalities can often clash, leading to friction and hard feelings. so it may be a good idea to review the ground rules here on the ark:

there are none. disagreeing with someone else's style or strategery or performance is perfectly acceptable. name calling and hair pulling are encouraged, so is ripping off halter tops. innuedo is the linga franka. just be ready to finish what you start because there is no sheriff in town and we're a long ways from land.

turtle/amoeba: 3, 2.91%, you look nice in that burka.
mouse/alevin: 3, 0.75%, you look nice in that burka.
elephant/birchtree: 3, 5.32%, put some damn clothes on you freak.
lion/boghie: 4, 3.93%, that one-piece is slimming and compliments your best features.
donkey/burrocrat: 1, 2.18%, don't i look nice in this burka?
racoon/fwm: 4, (5.33%), subtle but bold move, so what it's only out of Gand into F, it appears fwm is mirroring jth's moves, that is an aggressive decision that carries heavy weight even if the ift itself was rather minor. oh, and you look nice in that burka.
jonfresno/kangaroo: 3, 2.28%, you look nice in that burka.
cougar/jpcavin: 3, 5.08%, you look nice in that thong.
wolf/jth: 3, 9.01%, a subtle move to F, still playing, nothing wrong with covering up now and again to avoid getting burned. oh, and you look nice in that burka.
owl/mrbowl: 3, 1.34%, you quit flying around naked and probably put a thong on or something, underneath that burka.
squirrel/pessoptimist: 5, 4.03%, nice, sensible one-piece, but it's starting to ride up your crack a little. i can't believe your significant other is letting you walk around like that for so long.

el vira: 35. let's see, 55 max - 35 nuetral = 20 point spread. 36 - 35 = 1. 1/22 = 5%. tension is building and still trickling bearish. that means the market is probably going to keep going up.

watch out wolf, cougar is creeping up on you.

 

[Birchtree]

Burrocrat,

Riding up your crack is not politically correct - the correct term is bully patch. Then you have to be very careful with those camel toes - I got banned once for that one.

 

[burrocrat]

Burrocrat,

Riding up your crack is not politically correct - the correct term is bully patch. Then you have to be very careful with those camel toes - I got banned once for that one.

as well you should have, i remember the picture you posted. some people have no sense of humor.

 

[Boghie]

By popular demand - and, because it is easy. I'm the laziest animal in the ark. Ain't that the truth...

Anyway, here are the Ark's Current Swimwear Fashions:



Now, since this is a family site I have been warned about posting swimsuit examples. Actually, I self-censored myself after Googling images of BirchTree's in a thong on the beach. It was not a pretty sight. But, Alevin can look good even in a burka. In the end, I can't really post fine photos of Ark specimens without posting some very disturbing photos of the others. At least not now in the mood I am in. Yowser...

Anyway, some of you think that I know what I am doing. I really don't. You see, I read Burton Malkiel's 'Random Walk Down Wall Street' and kinda liked the idea of Modern Portfolio Theory. I also listen to and read stuff by Ric Edelman and Ray Lucia. But, I am as baffled as you as to why allocations behave as they do. Have you seen the math - give me another beer. I am still looking for a site or source that breaks it down. In the end, Quicken has a very easy Asset Allocation tool that hopefully does it for you. Those are the numbers I present. They are not just averaging in ratios, they do seem to take in the alphas, the betas, and the correlation coefficients. Hope so, but my experience is that they do.

Finally, a 'Real' number is inflation adjusted (takes inflation out of results). The nominal numbers include inflation. That inflation inflated number sure makes you happy, eh

 

[burrocrat]

By popular demand - and, because it is easy. I'm the laziest animal in the ark. Ain't that the truth...

Anyway, here are the Ark's Current Swimwear Fashions:

View attachment 28960

Now, since this is a family site I have been warned about posting swimsuit examples. Actually, I self-censored myself after Googling images of BirchTree's in a thong on the beach. It was not a pretty sight. But, Alevin can look good even in a burka. In the end, I can't really post fine photos of Ark specimens without posting some very disturbing photos of the others. At least not now in the mood I am in. Yowser...

Anyway, some of you think that I know what I am doing. I really don't. You see, I read Burton Malkiel's 'Random Walk Down Wall Street' and kinda liked the idea of Modern Portfolio Theory. I also listen to and read stuff by Ric Edelman and Ray Lucia. But, I am as baffled as you as to why allocations behave as they do. Have you seen the math - give me another beer. I am still looking for a site or source that breaks it down. In the end, Quicken has a very easy Asset Allocation tool that hopefully does it for you. Those are the numbers I present. They are not just averaging in ratios, they do seem to take in the alphas, the betas, and the correlation coefficients. Hope so, but my experience is that they do.

Finally, a 'Real' number is inflation adjusted (takes inflation out of results). The nominal numbers include inflation. That inflation inflated number sure makes you happy, eh

as always boghie, nice analysis. also nice analogy.

but no good without pictures. it might be informative to compare tsp allocations to actual swimsuits that a participant would actually wear, like in the company of family or close friends.

i'm not talking real photos of anybody in their bathing suit, but like an example from jcpenney catalog or the internet.

here, i'll start it off...

 

[burrocrat]

up at the lake, 1-3 beers (or 1 marguerita):

View attachment 28962

up at the lake 4+ beers (2 or more shots of tequila):










p.s. you probaby should not invite me to a pool party if there is going to be beer or tequila there, because you'll all be my family or close friends after that. or else in jail.

 

[alevin]

By popular demand - and, because it is easy. I'm the laziest animal in the ark. Ain't that the truth...

Anyway, here are the Ark's Current Swimwear Fashions:

View attachment 28960

Now, since this is a family site I have been warned about posting swimsuit examples. Actually, I self-censored myself after Googling images of BirchTree's in a thong on the beach. It was not a pretty sight. But, Alevin can look good even in a burka. In the end, I can't really post fine photos of Ark specimens without posting some very disturbing photos of the others. At least not now in the mood I am in. Yowser...

Anyway, some of you think that I know what I am doing. I really don't. You see, I read Burton Malkiel's 'Random Walk Down Wall Street' and kinda liked the idea of Modern Portfolio Theory. I also listen to and read stuff by Ric Edelman and Ray Lucia. But, I am as baffled as you as to why allocations behave as they do. Have you seen the math - give me another beer. I am still looking for a site or source that breaks it down. In the end, Quicken has a very easy Asset Allocation tool that hopefully does it for you. Those are the numbers I present. They are not just averaging in ratios, they do seem to take in the alphas, the betas, and the correlation coefficients. Hope so, but my experience is that they do.

Finally, a 'Real' number is inflation adjusted (takes inflation out of results). The nominal numbers include inflation. That inflation inflated number sure makes you happy, eh

Well. Now that I can see the real risk:reward ratios, and since I prefer trades with upside 3x:1 downside or better, looks like I'm going to have to start following jth and/or fwm. for a little bit more risk, I could be getting much much better reward than what I'm doing for almost the same degree of risk. no burkas for me! :nuts: now for a pic. hmm, I used to have one somewhere- a bit dated, but you know....sometimes one needs a new swimsuit anyways.

But since I always reserve the right to cover up since I burn easily, I have to say Boghie just doesn't have it quite right on the coverup style. I'm more likely to go with one of the following...

or this

 

[jpcavin]

I prefer a bikini like Boghie's chart suggests. But here is a pic of my one piece and cover up....for family gatherings. ;-)

Actually got them in the mail this weekend.

 

[jpcavin]

I prefer a bikini like Boghie's chart suggests. But here is a pic of my one piece and cover up....for family gatherings. ;-)

Actually got them in the mail this weekend.

Disclaimer: Just in case Userque is confused, that's not me in the picture.

 

[burrocrat]

whoa.

whoa, whoa, whoa.

am i the only one with a pair of shorts, no top, no cover, and lost the shorts after a couple shots of tequila?

this is not going to work out good for burro, i can tell.

guys, i could use a little help here?

 

[burrocrat]

Well. Now that I can see the real risk:reward ratios, and since I prefer trades with upside 3x:1 downside or better, looks like I'm going to have to start following jth and/or fwm. for a little bit more risk, I could be getting much much better reward than what I'm doing for almost the same degree of risk. no burkas for me! :nuts: now for a pic. hmm, I used to have one somewhere- a bit dated, but you know....sometimes one needs a new swimsuit anyways.

But since I always reserve the right to cover up since I burn easily, I have to say Boghie just doesn't have it quite right on the coverup style. I'm more likely to go with one of the following...

or this

alevin, the blue one suits you well.