burrocrat's Account Talk

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burrocrat said:
i am thinking about something boghie said one time, he said why not be in the market most of the time and then get out for the drops. boghie always has good advice. i am thinking about changing my strategery.

i try to watch for volatility and then grab a quick score by being in the market for a few days on the upside. i think i have gotten pretty good at the volatility part, i can tell when it's going deviate and feel it coming, but i suck at picking which way it's going to go. i jump in and it goes down. about the time i get out it goes up or i get out too early and miss out on good gains.

i am thinking of doing something like boghie with mainly staying invested to some degree in several funds, but it would be something simple like a 20-0-30-30-20 mix, and then getting out for a few days when i feel a big move coming not getting in because i always mess that up. but no way am i going for some crazy allocation like 11 or 37 or something, how do you even compute 37? why not 36 or 38? i don't get that part.

i am going to stick with increments of 10, or maybe 5.
Click to expand...

Burro,

I'm cheatin' with those allocation percentages...
But, as they say, if you ain't cheatin' you ain't tryin'...

I use Ric Edelman's GPS (Guide to Portfolio Selection) to set three basic allocations - that is, a conservative allocation, a normal allocation, and an aggressive allocation. Don't tell anybody - this is a secret between me and you man!!! Those allocations are posted on my profile because my brain doesn't move as fast as it used to. Where are those damn keys? This mush tastes better than yesterdays. The daytime soap operas have some sexy chickadees in them, don't they Zechariah :nuts:.

So, the basics are 'science'...

Then, I muck with 'science' on the fringes and get even more fringy allocations. Ever watch Fringe. That is where I get my best ideas. So, if me thinks the market is accelerating rapidly I bump to a more aggressive portfolio, if me thinks it is decelerating rapidly I drop down a portfolio, and if me thinks it is trotting along just fine me sits in the normal position and hunt the normal prey. That way I don't go 'al Amoeba' and run for the hills on a 1% collapse (because I probably suffered through a 0.6% calamity) or think my brilliance should have me scold Harry Markowitz and his silly Modern Portfolio Theory and go all in...

Finally, because I am an arrogant Lion, I will hedge the allocation percentages off the norms a bit based on my personal brilliance and modesty - yuk, yuk... :toung:. But, that is only a touch - maybe a 1% to 5% migration off the norms...

So, that is where I get all my weirdness.
 
i watch cbs survivor to get my ideas. '6 are left, who will get voted out tonight'? cue tribal music.

i like survivor better than sex. at least survivor turns on once a week.

trish is going to win. she and spencer and tash will take that arrogant ahole tony down. don't ever mess with a cougar.

Boghie said:
Then, I muck with 'science' on the fringes and get even more fringy allocations. Ever watch Fringe. That is where I get my best ideas.
Click to expand...
 
burrocrat said:
burro's ark weekly update:

turtle/amoeba: 3, 1.36%, nice save on the gains and back to default holding.
mouse/alevin: 3, 0.42%,a little risk brings a little reward, but that's better than no reward.
elephant/birchtree: 3, 1.35%, the i fund don't seem so stupid now, does it biatches?
lion/boghie: 4, 0.80%, held is his ground, downside defense with potential for upside gain, smart alek.
donkey/burrocrat: 1, 1.90%, popped it for +1/2% but bailed too early, again.
barracuda/dreamboatannie: 5, (3.14%), compounded the previous locked in loss.
racoon/fwm: 1, (6.56%), crawl to the hills.
cougar/jpcavin: 4, 0.53%, didn't retreat but still lost ground.
wolf/jth: 5, 4.95%, still winning! gave back 1% but still way ahead of the pack, and still hunting.
squirrel/pessoptimist: 4, 0.93%, basically even steven, with positive risk gain possibilities.

vira: 33, 66%, turning bearish.

i think by this time next week i will either be flatass broke like i am now, rich beyond my dreams if i hit the lotto, or else in a lion/boghie mix and following wolf/jth's moves. anyways, i'd still be proud to be coming in second place, not too shabby for just winging it.

on a side note: does any math wizzes know how to make the vira of 33, which is an indicator of how far +/- an aggregate of 10 folks are either side of 3 on a scale of 1 to 5 with a total nuetral reading of 30, and min/max range between 10 and 50, more informative than this percentage representation? it is not saying what it means to say, or else i'm not hearing it.
Click to expand...

Burro,

I think you have hit the nail on the head on tracking returns to risk with your El Vira stat. But me thinks it is a hard thing to get one's head around. Me thinks what you are trying to do is mathematically estimate how the different folks allocations work together to grow their account balances. For example, we all have five asset classes we can invest in:

G: Basically cash / very short term bonds
F: Basically an Intermediate Term bond
C: S&P500, US Large Cap Value/Growth Equities
S: Small + Mid Cap US Equities
I: Mid + Large Cap Non-US/Canada Equities in Developed Markets

Then, it looks as if you want to get a Risk/Reward stat to match against the other members of the ark. I hope that Quicken does all that ugly math in their allocation risk and return numbers. I really hope they do because I think the calculus behind MPT is about as hard as it gets. For example, what are the odds that when the S&P is dropping that the AGG is increasing - and how much is the normal buffer that such a move provides? I might try to find a recent book on it, but my guess is that is how the army of Financial Advisers make their mullah. Ric Edelman comes close to giving up the ghost in his most recent book 'The Truth about Retirement Plans and IRAs' (highly recommended) when he provides a chart demonstrating the average annual return/risk numbers for stock/bond mixes from 0%/100% through 100%/0%. I don't think his numbers are just averages; I think they are calculated by plotting the numbers and performing statistical modeling on them.

So, that takes into account an allocation that only invests in the 'C Fund' and the 'F Fund'. Mix in the G/S/I and you got yourself a hot mess. My guess is that it is doable, and probably has been done. Any hints...
 
uhhh, could you just call me burro? i just sling it buddy.

Boghie said:
Burro,

I think you have hit the nail on the head on tracking returns to risk with your El Vira stat. But me thinks it is a hard thing to get one's head around. Me thinks what you are trying to do is mathematically estimate how the different folks allocations work together to grow their account balances. For example, we all have five asset classes we can invest in:

G: Basically cash / very short term bonds
F: Basically an Intermediate Term bond
C: S&P500, US Large Cap Value/Growth Equities
S: Small + Mid Cap US Equities
I: Mid + Large Cap Non-US/Canada Equities in Developed Markets

Then, it looks as if you want to get a Risk/Reward stat to match against the other members of the ark. I hope that Quicken does all that ugly math in their allocation risk and return numbers. I really hope they do because I think the calculus behind MPT is about as hard as it gets. For example, what are the odds that when the S&P is dropping that the AGG is increasing - and how much is the normal buffer that such a move provides? I might try to find a recent book on it, but my guess is that is how the army of Financial Advisers make their mullah. Ric Edelman comes close to giving up the ghost in his most recent book 'The Truth about Retirement Plans and IRAs' (highly recommended) when he provides a chart demonstrating the average annual return/risk numbers for stock/bond mixes from 0%/100% through 100%/0%. I don't think his numbers are just averages; I think they are calculated by plotting the numbers and performing statistical modeling on them.

So, that takes into account an allocation that only invests in the 'C Fund' and the 'F Fund'. Mix in the G/S/I and you got yourself a hot mess. My guess is that it is doable, and probably has been done. Any hints...
Click to expand...
 
Boghie said:
Burro,

I think you have hit the nail on the head on tracking returns to risk with your El Vira stat. But me thinks it is a hard thing to get one's head around. Me thinks what you are trying to do is mathematically estimate how the different folks allocations work together to grow their account balances. For example, we all have five asset classes we can invest in:

G: Basically cash / very short term bonds
F: Basically an Intermediate Term bond
C: S&P500, US Large Cap Value/Growth Equities
S: Small + Mid Cap US Equities
I: Mid + Large Cap Non-US/Canada Equities in Developed Markets

Then, it looks as if you want to get a Risk/Reward stat to match against the other members of the ark. I hope that Quicken does all that ugly math in their allocation risk and return numbers. I really hope they do because I think the calculus behind MPT is about as hard as it gets. For example, what are the odds that when the S&P is dropping that the AGG is increasing - and how much is the normal buffer that such a move provides? I might try to find a recent book on it, but my guess is that is how the army of Financial Advisers make their mullah. Ric Edelman comes close to giving up the ghost in his most recent book 'The Truth about Retirement Plans and IRAs' (highly recommended) when he provides a chart demonstrating the average annual return/risk numbers for stock/bond mixes from 0%/100% through 100%/0%. I don't think his numbers are just averages; I think they are calculated by plotting the numbers and performing statistical modeling on them.

So, that takes into account an allocation that only invests in the 'C Fund' and the 'F Fund'. Mix in the G/S/I and you got yourself a hot mess. My guess is that it is doable, and probably has been done. Any hints...
Click to expand...

Interesting post.

For anyone reading the above and interested:

Two ways come to mind:

1. Using Excel, historical data, Excel's 'What-if' and 'Solver' tools, in a spreadsheet designed to simulate trades and resultant virtual balances over the history of the data; one could possibly find the GFCSI permutation resulting in the desired risk/reward ratio. I haven't used the Excel Solver/What-if tools etc., so I'm only speculating here.

2. Using Excel, historical data, and VBA, in a spreadsheet designed to simulate trades and resultant virtual balances over the history of the data; one could possibly find the GFCSI permutation resulting in the desired risk/reward ratio. Having used VBA etc. before, I'm certain this can be done, but it wouldn't be a one-day-job...at least not for me. :)

I suspect something like this is done in order to determine the 'make up' of the 'L' funds.

Now that I think more about it. I would bet that there exists formulas to take individual (for each fund) statistical data (risk/reward, deviation, etc.); combined with additional data (from one or more additional funds), to reveal overall, combined statistical data (risk/reward, etc.)
 
Last edited:
Nice thoughts UserQue. I am not much of a spreadsheet guy though...

Anyway, another way looking at Burro's data:

Low Risk / Low Reward Group (Holding Pattern)
  • turtle/amoeba - 0% Reward, 0% Risk, Expect 0% Return
  • donkey/burrocrat - 0% Reward, 0% Risk, Expect 0% Return
  • mouse/alevin - 0% Reward, 1% Risk, Expect -1% to 1% Return

Moderate Risk / Moderate Reward Group (The cats are napping, Eating ok and sleeping ok)
  • lion/boghie - 8% Reward, 8% Risk, Expect 0% to 16% Return
  • squirrel/pessoptimist - 8% Reward, 10% Risk, Expect -2% to 18% Return
  • cougar/jpcavin - 10% Reward, 11% Risk, Expect -1% to 21% Return

High Risk / High Reward Group (On the run, chasing prey. BT never stops running;))
  • elephant/birchtree - 11% Reward, 14% Risk, Expect -3% to 25% Return
  • barracuda/dreamboatannie - 10% Reward, 14% Risk, , Expect -4% to 24% Return
  • racoon/fwm - 10% Reward, 13% Risk, Expect -3% to 23% Return

High Risk / Running Buck Naked through the Woods, but that is what most wolves do:p
  • wolf/jth - 11% Reward, 20% Risk, Expect -9% to 31% Return

I like to plug allocations into Quicken's Asset Allocation Tool. I think I have to pound a square peg into a round hole for some of the asset groups (Note: the Lilly Padders can expect a 0% return - but we know that is not true). The expected return happens 2/3 of the time. Add/Subtract another Risk percentage to get to 95% of the time. Add another two risk factors to get to 2008 and live the big Fat Tail!!! Science...
 
Boghie said:
Nice thoughts UserQue. I am not much of a spreadsheet guy though...

Anyway, another way looking at Burro's data:

Low Risk / Low Reward Group (Holding Pattern)
  • turtle/amoeba - 0% Reward, 0% Risk, Expect 0% Return
  • donkey/burrocrat - 0% Reward, 0% Risk, Expect 0% Return
  • mouse/alevin - 0% Reward, 1% Risk, Expect -1% to 1% Return

Moderate Risk / Moderate Reward Group (The cats are napping, Eating ok and sleeping ok)
  • lion/boghie - 8% Reward, 8% Risk, Expect 0% to 16% Return
  • squirrel/pessoptimist - 8% Reward, 10% Risk, Expect -2% to 18% Return
  • cougar/jpcavin - 10% Reward, 11% Risk, Expect -1% to 21% Return

High Risk / High Reward Group (On the run, chasing prey. BT never stops running;))
  • elephant/birchtree - 11% Reward, 14% Risk, Expect -3% to 25% Return
  • barracuda/dreamboatannie - 10% Reward, 14% Risk, , Expect -4% to 24% Return
  • racoon/fwm - 10% Reward, 13% Risk, Expect -3% to 23% Return

High Risk / Running Buck Naked through the Woods, but that is what most wolves do:p
  • wolf/jth - 11% Reward, 20% Risk, Expect -9% to 31% Return

I like to plug allocations into Quicken's Asset Allocation Tool. I think I have to pound a square peg into a round hole for some of the asset groups (Note: the Lilly Padders can expect a 0% return - but we know that is not true). The expected return happens 2/3 of the time. Add/Subtract another Risk percentage to get to 95% of the time. Add another two risk factors to get to 2008 and live the big Fat Tail!!! Science...
Click to expand...

I like that layout,

I find it interesting folks would think me to be a high risk person.

This year I've been invested 29 of 86 days or 33%

For 2013 I was invested 141 of 252 days or 56% (Much of this was with partial allocations in stocks)
 
Boghie said:
Nice thoughts UserQue. I am not much of a spreadsheet guy though...

Anyway, another way looking at Burro's data:

Low Risk / Low Reward Group (Holding Pattern)
  • turtle/amoeba - 0% Reward, 0% Risk, Expect 0% Return
  • donkey/burrocrat - 0% Reward, 0% Risk, Expect 0% Return
  • mouse/alevin - 0% Reward, 1% Risk, Expect -1% to 1% Return

Moderate Risk / Moderate Reward Group (The cats are napping, Eating ok and sleeping ok)
  • lion/boghie - 8% Reward, 8% Risk, Expect 0% to 16% Return
  • squirrel/pessoptimist - 8% Reward, 10% Risk, Expect -2% to 18% Return
  • cougar/jpcavin - 10% Reward, 11% Risk, Expect -1% to 21% Return

High Risk / High Reward Group (On the run, chasing prey. BT never stops running;))
  • elephant/birchtree - 11% Reward, 14% Risk, Expect -3% to 25% Return
  • barracuda/dreamboatannie - 10% Reward, 14% Risk, , Expect -4% to 24% Return
  • racoon/fwm - 10% Reward, 13% Risk, Expect -3% to 23% Return

High Risk / Running Buck Naked through the Woods, but that is what most wolves do:p
  • wolf/jth - 11% Reward, 20% Risk, Expect -9% to 31% Return

I like to plug allocations into Quicken's Asset Allocation Tool. I think I have to pound a square peg into a round hole for some of the asset groups (Note: the Lilly Padders can expect a 0% return - but we know that is not true). The expected return happens 2/3 of the time. Add/Subtract another Risk percentage to get to 95% of the time. Add another two risk factors to get to 2008 and live the big Fat Tail!!! Science...
Click to expand...

Nice :) I like that Quicken has that functionality built in.
 
the only part of that i understood was the running buck naked through the woods part. that is one of my favorite things to do.

i think i am trying to do what userque and boghie say, but without all the brainiac spreadsheet stuff, i just go on feel.

note to self: jth likes circles, usually red.

Boghie said:
Nice thoughts UserQue. I am not much of a spreadsheet guy though...

Anyway, another way looking at Burro's data:

Low Risk / Low Reward Group (Holding Pattern)
  • turtle/amoeba - 0% Reward, 0% Risk, Expect 0% Return
  • donkey/burrocrat - 0% Reward, 0% Risk, Expect 0% Return
  • mouse/alevin - 0% Reward, 1% Risk, Expect -1% to 1% Return

Moderate Risk / Moderate Reward Group (The cats are napping, Eating ok and sleeping ok)
  • lion/boghie - 8% Reward, 8% Risk, Expect 0% to 16% Return
  • squirrel/pessoptimist - 8% Reward, 10% Risk, Expect -2% to 18% Return
  • cougar/jpcavin - 10% Reward, 11% Risk, Expect -1% to 21% Return

High Risk / High Reward Group (On the run, chasing prey. BT never stops running;))
  • elephant/birchtree - 11% Reward, 14% Risk, Expect -3% to 25% Return
  • barracuda/dreamboatannie - 10% Reward, 14% Risk, , Expect -4% to 24% Return
  • racoon/fwm - 10% Reward, 13% Risk, Expect -3% to 23% Return

High Risk / Running Buck Naked through the Woods, but that is what most wolves do:p
  • wolf/jth - 11% Reward, 20% Risk, Expect -9% to 31% Return

I like to plug allocations into Quicken's Asset Allocation Tool. I think I have to pound a square peg into a round hole for some of the asset groups (Note: the Lilly Padders can expect a 0% return - but we know that is not true). The expected return happens 2/3 of the time. Add/Subtract another Risk percentage to get to 95% of the time. Add another two risk factors to get to 2008 and live the big Fat Tail!!! Science...
Click to expand...
 
Boghie said:
Mix in the G/S/I and you got yourself a hot mess. My guess is that it is doable, and probably has been done. Any hints...
Click to expand...

i don't have any hints. i wish i had a hot mess. but historically that has never worked out good for me. or for the hot mess.
 
i got a brand new clothes washer today. i like it way better than my old washer because it spins around. the last washer i had sucked, as of last night. it probably is never a good time to wake up to a tub full of wet soapy clothes, but this morning was particularly bad. it now lives in my yard.

this new one is a kenmore which is like sears, and i always appreciated sears for sending out those catalogs when i was a kid, that is how i learned about bra sizing.

but anyways, this one has lights to tell me what it is doing at the moment and it makes different noises too. also, i get to choose between normal and heavy duty; super, regular, or light,; small, medium, or large; and cold, warm, or hot. it also locks itself so i can't get hurt if i stick my head in there on accident when it is going 1000 rpm.

and it tells me when it's done. god i wish they made women like this for $320 bucks.

also, i got some new pants today, which i am going to wash in my new washer.
 
burrocrat said:
i got a brand new clothes washer today. i like it way better than my old washer because it spins around. the last washer i had sucked, as of last night. it probably is never a good time to wake up to a tub full of wet soapy clothes, but this morning was particularly bad. it now lives in my yard.

this new one is a kenmore which is like sears, and i always appreciated sears for sending out those catalogs when i was a kid, that is how i learned about bra sizing.

but anyways, this one has lights to tell me what it is doing at the moment and it makes different noises too. also, i get to choose between normal and heavy duty; super, regular, or light,; small, medium, or large; and cold, warm, or hot. it also locks itself so i can't get hurt if i stick my head in there on accident when it is going 1000 rpm.

and it tells me when it's done. god i wish they made women like this for $320 bucks.

also, i got some new pants today, which i am going to wash in my new washer.
Click to expand...

Burro you probably could have fixed the old one with a VOM and readily available schematic of the timer switch. Guidance is available on line. Of course if you actually needed a new timer it would have cost a lot more than the washer was worth.

Whatcha gonna do with the old one? Planter? some green org will take it for free and if you shop around someone will pay you to let them take it. All incentives you are all ready paying for through tax dollars.

PO
 
i'm going to take it for a nice drive out in the country. then i'm going to shoot it. a lot. stupid f'ing washer. it failed me. now it's done.

PessOptimist said:
Burro you probably could have fixed the old one with a VOM and readily available schematic of the timer switch. Guidance is available on line. Of course if you actually needed a new timer it would have cost a lot more than the washer was worth.

Whatcha gonna do with the old one? Planter? some green org will take it for free and if you shop around someone will pay you to let them take it. All incentives you are all ready paying for through tax dollars.

PO
Click to expand...
 
burrocrat said:
i'm going to take it for a nice drive out in the country. then i'm going to shoot it. a lot. stupid f'ing washer. it failed me. now it's done.
Click to expand...
Huh....kinda did the same thing....but it was a toilet ! I talked to it, "soooooo you won't flush for me, huh?? " then it got blasted!! :laugh:

You did the right thing Burro!
 
i don't have any update this week. i had a good one wrote, but then i backspaced on my phone. now it's gone. dba is out, we're down to 9 out of 10, and the damn wheels come off my train.
 
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