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burrocrat's Account Talk
- Thread starter burrocrat
- Start date
burrocrat
Well-known member
well maybe we're getting one of them bumps in the road and i can get back in for a day or two here soon. i realized i was no good at the technical analysis so i switched to a sentiment/news/hit and git strategery last year and have been waiting patiently this year to continue building my system. it has three main components.
1 hang around smart investors and watch what they do. and maybe try to figure why. so thanks my tsptalk digital friends for all the info.
2 i'm too much of an optimist and tend to stay in the market too long but have a good eye for those falling knife drop and pops so i try to time the short term bottoms.
3 i sometimes get frustrated with the traders around here because even though you're my friends you guys have so many different time horizons and tolerances for risk and so many systems that i can't tell when or why you might make a move.
it's been tough not following the crowd so far this year but i think my stars are about to align if i just remember to follow my three simple rules: you can pick your friends, and you can pick your bottom, but you can't pick your friend's bottoms.
1 hang around smart investors and watch what they do. and maybe try to figure why. so thanks my tsptalk digital friends for all the info.
2 i'm too much of an optimist and tend to stay in the market too long but have a good eye for those falling knife drop and pops so i try to time the short term bottoms.
3 i sometimes get frustrated with the traders around here because even though you're my friends you guys have so many different time horizons and tolerances for risk and so many systems that i can't tell when or why you might make a move.
it's been tough not following the crowd so far this year but i think my stars are about to align if i just remember to follow my three simple rules: you can pick your friends, and you can pick your bottom, but you can't pick your friend's bottoms.
sniper
Active member
yes you can, and now you can get same-sex benefits if you want to get serious about it
burrocrat
Well-known member
yes you can, and now you can get same-sex benefits if you want to get serious about it
yeah, but first you got to get consent. and i ran a cost-benefit analysis on that but i don't see any value there.
Birchtree
Well-known member
If you want to follow me you'll know I don't take detours - I'm most likely in my current allocation for the entire year and perhaps next year too. I set my strategy and let the market come to me. I do chase wall flowers but my tugboat (TSP) remains constant for the immediate future. I'm future oriented and 20C/80I is where I need to stay.
burrocrat
Well-known member
dang, i expected that dump to bigger and longer and not until next week. -3% and 48 hours later it's over and we're back to the races like the furloughs never happened, before they ever happened. this dam news cycle moves so fast anymore. i hope i don't end up spending the whole year in G fund.
burrocrat
Well-known member
on an unrelated note: would whoever owns a hot tub puhhleeease buy a replacement spa cover already! you know the google tracks your searches and history and then place ads on sites you visit to sell you something it already knows you're interested in right?
i'm tired of looking at it, if whoever it is quits searching for spa covers i promise i'll quit dragging those korean mailorder brides ads around.
i'm tired of looking at it, if whoever it is quits searching for spa covers i promise i'll quit dragging those korean mailorder brides ads around.
burrocrat
Well-known member
did the black swan just lay an egg?
The Cyprus Bank Deposit Bail-in | Credit Writedowns
so get this, if you have more than 100k in the bank you wake up and find out it's only 90.1k in the morning. if you have less than that then you only lose $6.75 per hundred, thank god for small favors. of course the bank holiday is declared after close of business friday, with a vote to happen sunday, and the on monday morning you get a free haircut. no need to panic, the atm's are already empty and the doors are locked.
after i read the first article last night, it now seems the vote has been delayed, i assume to allow large connected depositors a few more minutes to backdate some computer transactions, but the official physical flow of fiat paper has ceased.
that couldn't happen here, right? banks receive your deposit and only lend out a portion of it always keeping enough in the vault to pay out any withdrawl requests don't they? don't they? that dang electronic fractional reserve stuff is tricky.
oh well, it's been a long time since we had a good ole global faith and credit crisis. another shot of greek and spanish contagion anyone? or do you prefer italian?
let 'er buck.
The Cyprus Bank Deposit Bail-in | Credit Writedowns
so get this, if you have more than 100k in the bank you wake up and find out it's only 90.1k in the morning. if you have less than that then you only lose $6.75 per hundred, thank god for small favors. of course the bank holiday is declared after close of business friday, with a vote to happen sunday, and the on monday morning you get a free haircut. no need to panic, the atm's are already empty and the doors are locked.
after i read the first article last night, it now seems the vote has been delayed, i assume to allow large connected depositors a few more minutes to backdate some computer transactions, but the official physical flow of fiat paper has ceased.
that couldn't happen here, right? banks receive your deposit and only lend out a portion of it always keeping enough in the vault to pay out any withdrawl requests don't they? don't they? that dang electronic fractional reserve stuff is tricky.
oh well, it's been a long time since we had a good ole global faith and credit crisis. another shot of greek and spanish contagion anyone? or do you prefer italian?
let 'er buck.
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
This Crazy Cyprus Deal Could Screw Up A Lot More Than Cyprus...
I think we are safe Burro, as our deposits are backed by the FDIC up to $250k... If you have more than that in a bank, well...
I don't see how our banks can go bankrupt since they have been given trillions to shore them up over the last 4 years, but I can be naive too...
I think we are safe Burro, as our deposits are backed by the FDIC up to $250k... If you have more than that in a bank, well...
I don't see how our banks can go bankrupt since they have been given trillions to shore them up over the last 4 years, but I can be naive too...
Mcqlives
Active member
Shouldn't we all Google the inheritance from some long lost Nigerian millionaire uncle too?
Cactus
Well-known member
Yeah, but what is this going to do to our equity funds, especially the I Fund? I guess initially it should rally because a bunch of folks just got robbed, but after it hits the fan I'd expect everything to head south in lock-step.
burrocrat
Well-known member
it's probably ok if you just google it, but don't click on anything, except the porn ads, they're the only one that are what they seem. the trick to that scam is let them send the check and deposit it, but do not, repeat do not, wire them any money back. i have yet to meet a nigerian on my doorstep.
burrocrat
Well-known member
Yeah, but what is this going to do to our equity funds, especially the I Fund? I guess initially it should rally because a bunch of folks just got robbed, but after it hits the fan I'd expect everything to head south in lock-step.
i suspect our equity funds will only go up. same with G bonds too, up up up. all them poor suckers just got burnt and anybody with money left is looking for a safe place to put it and we're it. their problem is they forfieted their sovriegnty so now the german paymasters can dictate austerity. our central bank is wholly owned by our government and us for our comfort and safety, so nobody can play funny money games with our scratch, it's as good as gold. plus we can print all we want. ha ha!
Mcqlives
Active member
burrocrat
Well-known member
it's good to see no global currency crash, yet. but i don't think this cyprus monster is going back to bed that easily. the main problem is the euro. when you can't devalue the currency to increase prices by 10%, then you just take some cash off everybody's table so prices remain the same but you can only afford 90% as much of stuff. that's the only way out for an insolvent nation, devalue or confiscate. so we're not done yet.
of course there will be no vote monday and the bank holiday gets extended. in times of crisis and insecurity, the best thing the leaders can do is waffle and hem and haw and shuffle their feet until everbody gets used to the uncertainty and then slip in the knife. somebody is getting hit here, and it's not the germans.
regardless how this puny cypriot robbery works out over the next few days, everybody in the euro now knows if it ain't under your matress it ain't safe. that should have some kind of noticable effect on the faith and credit trade.
of course there will be no vote monday and the bank holiday gets extended. in times of crisis and insecurity, the best thing the leaders can do is waffle and hem and haw and shuffle their feet until everbody gets used to the uncertainty and then slip in the knife. somebody is getting hit here, and it's not the germans.
regardless how this puny cypriot robbery works out over the next few days, everybody in the euro now knows if it ain't under your matress it ain't safe. that should have some kind of noticable effect on the faith and credit trade.
burrocrat
Well-known member
unfortunately, that's what bothers me. some little island can steal (at the direction of its creditors) from its own depositors, and the money flows inflating our markets.
problem is we have the same companies making the same stuff only now they cost more. so the bigger number on my monthly statement doesn't put any extra ramen in the cupboard. we get burned on both ends: less stable world economy in which to operate and price inflation in our markets. has anybody figured out where all the money really goes? i'd like to know so i can put myself in front of some of it.
burrocrat
Well-known member
it's not a real currency war until somebody fires shots. right now all we got is a domestic squable between the russian pimps and the financial/political elites who want a little refund on the services they enjoyed.
all we need now is some videotape and gasoline.
what percentage of cypriot parlementians do you think have spent hours on the phone with their blackmailers today?
all we need now is some videotape and gasoline.
what percentage of cypriot parlementians do you think have spent hours on the phone with their blackmailers today?
burrocrat
Well-known member
ok ok ok, i can't hardly take it anymore, the market just keeps going up up up. but it's the same companies making the same stuff for the same people, only the stock costs more dollars to buy. thank god there is no inflation or else we'd have to give gov workers, vets, and retirees a raise so they could afford it.
notice interest rates have already begun moving up, forget what ben says, 1.125% is now 1.375% for the non-institutional borrower in just a few months. that's a 22.2% increase that nobody is talking about.
obviously the strategy is to make the dollar worth less so you are forced to buy equities. they call that an asset bubble i think, and you have to buy in just to maintain equilibrium and not lose ground. wheeee!
i'm not playing that game. i remember the fear of 2009 and 2011 when i was all in and it fell down around me and i had to grit my teeth for a loooong time until it came back around. only this time i'm in G and i'm not moving until carol king shouts the earth moves under my feet. play it again sam.
http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=hoHuxpa4h48&desktop_uri=/watch?v=hoHuxpa4h48
pop goes the weasel. until then i think i'll just sit here and watch everybody get drunk at the dance.
notice interest rates have already begun moving up, forget what ben says, 1.125% is now 1.375% for the non-institutional borrower in just a few months. that's a 22.2% increase that nobody is talking about.
obviously the strategy is to make the dollar worth less so you are forced to buy equities. they call that an asset bubble i think, and you have to buy in just to maintain equilibrium and not lose ground. wheeee!
i'm not playing that game. i remember the fear of 2009 and 2011 when i was all in and it fell down around me and i had to grit my teeth for a loooong time until it came back around. only this time i'm in G and i'm not moving until carol king shouts the earth moves under my feet. play it again sam.
http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=hoHuxpa4h48&desktop_uri=/watch?v=hoHuxpa4h48
pop goes the weasel. until then i think i'll just sit here and watch everybody get drunk at the dance.
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