-
Welcome to the TSP Talk Forums forums.
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our free community you will have access to post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), respond to polls, upload content, join our AutoTracker, and access many other special features. Registration is simple and absolutely free so please, join our community today!
If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact us. -
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
20% Off Annual Premium Subscriptions!*
Ends Jan 18... Click Here For More Information
* For new or current subscribers -
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!
burrocrat's Account Talk
- Thread starter burrocrat
- Start date
userque
Well-known member
burrocrat
Well-known member
burros-ark 160807
burros-ark update: well the market’s slow slide up the hill is still going, i am not sure what to make of it. looking back, the brexit pivot was right on time with the stair-step pattern the ark had been doing. missed it and now on a plateau, a long flat slog. the funny thing about plateaus though, is that they almost always end at a cliff. frightening, but usually an incredible view, right before the drop. so we shall see. interestingly, everything is positive, no negative ytd returns including the indexes, although the i-fund by just barely and it continues to suck hind teat, like an anchor. i wonder if that is what will drag us all down. nobody on the ark is beating the c- or s-fund, and barely a couple doing better than the f-fund. that is interesting because all of us would’ve been better off just buying and holding, even through the early year scarey drop, we’d be pulling 8% now. the system is definitely avoiding the drops so far, but also missing some of the runs. hmmm.
View attachment 39036
burros-ark signal: hold (confirm a lot of previous sells, again). el vira is at a negative -5% and exposure at 20%. over the last few weeks i have dropped some members and added others, and i think eventually that will make it more sensitive and quicker to respond to market changes. sentiment is definitely negative with most folks neutral or pessimistic relative to their normal distributions. hold. if a normal retirement buy-and-hold conservative mix is 60/40 long, we are at a 20/80 distribution, and have been for a long time. i have a hard time believing that many smart folks here are all wrong. hold.
View attachment 39037
burros-ark stuff: soap update: i got half of my soap order mid-week which was very interesting timing because the office was having a conversation about bacon and late night internet shopping and i told them i had ordered $78 of soap off the internet and some of it smelled like bacon. they did not believe me, so i showed them the little delivery card left in my mailbox the night before and said i am going to get it at lunch. when i got back with the package they all crowded into my office and made me open it in front of them. yep, two razorback bath bars, way cool. they have red glitter in them. and the other bath bars are basically squares with like a frosted peaked top and they have glitter too. the shave soap disks do not have glitter but much stronger scents. so the gals passed them all around and smelled them and picked their favorites and held them to their cheeks and passed them back again for more smells. it was getting kind of crazy for me so i said “hey those are my soaps, you know i am going to shower with those, right?” they quickly put them down on my desk and scurried out. tmi i guess. well what else do you think people do with soap, duh? the first half of the order shipped from the nak a tish store, and they gave me a card with 10% off the next order for each item that wasn’t in the box. the second box got here saturday, shipped from the little rock store. very cool artisan soap. they are heavy, 5 oz for the bath bars and 4 oz for the shave soap disks, substantial. not only am i going to be squeaky clean and smell good, but thanks to the glitter i am going to shine. this little light of mine.
burros-ark update: well the market’s slow slide up the hill is still going, i am not sure what to make of it. looking back, the brexit pivot was right on time with the stair-step pattern the ark had been doing. missed it and now on a plateau, a long flat slog. the funny thing about plateaus though, is that they almost always end at a cliff. frightening, but usually an incredible view, right before the drop. so we shall see. interestingly, everything is positive, no negative ytd returns including the indexes, although the i-fund by just barely and it continues to suck hind teat, like an anchor. i wonder if that is what will drag us all down. nobody on the ark is beating the c- or s-fund, and barely a couple doing better than the f-fund. that is interesting because all of us would’ve been better off just buying and holding, even through the early year scarey drop, we’d be pulling 8% now. the system is definitely avoiding the drops so far, but also missing some of the runs. hmmm.
View attachment 39036
burros-ark signal: hold (confirm a lot of previous sells, again). el vira is at a negative -5% and exposure at 20%. over the last few weeks i have dropped some members and added others, and i think eventually that will make it more sensitive and quicker to respond to market changes. sentiment is definitely negative with most folks neutral or pessimistic relative to their normal distributions. hold. if a normal retirement buy-and-hold conservative mix is 60/40 long, we are at a 20/80 distribution, and have been for a long time. i have a hard time believing that many smart folks here are all wrong. hold.
View attachment 39037
burros-ark stuff: soap update: i got half of my soap order mid-week which was very interesting timing because the office was having a conversation about bacon and late night internet shopping and i told them i had ordered $78 of soap off the internet and some of it smelled like bacon. they did not believe me, so i showed them the little delivery card left in my mailbox the night before and said i am going to get it at lunch. when i got back with the package they all crowded into my office and made me open it in front of them. yep, two razorback bath bars, way cool. they have red glitter in them. and the other bath bars are basically squares with like a frosted peaked top and they have glitter too. the shave soap disks do not have glitter but much stronger scents. so the gals passed them all around and smelled them and picked their favorites and held them to their cheeks and passed them back again for more smells. it was getting kind of crazy for me so i said “hey those are my soaps, you know i am going to shower with those, right?” they quickly put them down on my desk and scurried out. tmi i guess. well what else do you think people do with soap, duh? the first half of the order shipped from the nak a tish store, and they gave me a card with 10% off the next order for each item that wasn’t in the box. the second box got here saturday, shipped from the little rock store. very cool artisan soap. they are heavy, 5 oz for the bath bars and 4 oz for the shave soap disks, substantial. not only am i going to be squeaky clean and smell good, but thanks to the glitter i am going to shine. this little light of mine.
burrocrat
Well-known member
How to make an epic bacon-wrapped grilled cheese | Fox News
oh my... that is way better than porn. i am going to try this. why didn't i think of it? ohhh... it's even got the cheesy music.
oh my... that is way better than porn. i am going to try this. why didn't i think of it? ohhh... it's even got the cheesy music.
burrocrat
Well-known member
burros-ark 160814
burros-ark update: minor shuffling and holding, but wolf did take the plunge it appears. all is quiet on the western front. and the eastern, southern, and northern fronts too. just lazy days floating along down the river. calm waters, like glass. sometimes glass breaks. this is usually when a meteor comes screaming out of the sky and leaves a big ole hole in your yard and out jumps a redneck superbug alien in carhartts or something who is going to eat the world. bon appatite.
View attachment 39119
burros-ark signal: hold (confirm a lot of previous sells, again). el vira and exposure are coming around a bit, but not convincingly enough for me. this market is probably just going to continue treading water for the next few months with the whole political court intrigue stuffing cotton in our ears and bending what everybody knows is a messed up reality. but us people are basically all just stupid, we hear what we want to hear. hold. so don’t get your panties in a bunch just yet, just be thankful you still got panties, so far. hold.
View attachment 39120
burros-ark stuff: not much to add here. school year is about to start again, my how time flies. football practices beginning and backpacks and supplies and clothes piling up. fall is already starting to turn here if you know what to look for, and harvest is in full swing with the wheat mostly up and beans then corn not far behind. so far so good and the prices are low so bad for growers but good for eaters. i think this is going to be a heavy wet cold early winter, it does that sometimes. if you got hatches, now is the time to batten them down, while the evenings still have some light. pretty soon it will be halloween before we know it, after the harvest moon, and the spooks come out for darkness. then the politics will shift, and things could get really spooky then. i hope the world keeps turning, i like the world, it has been good to me.
on an interesting side note: my exwife has been calling and starting to talk to our son again. that is usually both bad news and good news. anyways, we always did communicate better naked, so we agreed to meet up on text and phone and watch a dirty movie on netflix together last night while we worked some things out. it makes perfect sense in a strange "is this my life" kind of way. except i fell asleep early and she never called. how funny is that? too old to even keep a porn date or fight. sad.
burros-ark update: minor shuffling and holding, but wolf did take the plunge it appears. all is quiet on the western front. and the eastern, southern, and northern fronts too. just lazy days floating along down the river. calm waters, like glass. sometimes glass breaks. this is usually when a meteor comes screaming out of the sky and leaves a big ole hole in your yard and out jumps a redneck superbug alien in carhartts or something who is going to eat the world. bon appatite.
View attachment 39119
burros-ark signal: hold (confirm a lot of previous sells, again). el vira and exposure are coming around a bit, but not convincingly enough for me. this market is probably just going to continue treading water for the next few months with the whole political court intrigue stuffing cotton in our ears and bending what everybody knows is a messed up reality. but us people are basically all just stupid, we hear what we want to hear. hold. so don’t get your panties in a bunch just yet, just be thankful you still got panties, so far. hold.
View attachment 39120
burros-ark stuff: not much to add here. school year is about to start again, my how time flies. football practices beginning and backpacks and supplies and clothes piling up. fall is already starting to turn here if you know what to look for, and harvest is in full swing with the wheat mostly up and beans then corn not far behind. so far so good and the prices are low so bad for growers but good for eaters. i think this is going to be a heavy wet cold early winter, it does that sometimes. if you got hatches, now is the time to batten them down, while the evenings still have some light. pretty soon it will be halloween before we know it, after the harvest moon, and the spooks come out for darkness. then the politics will shift, and things could get really spooky then. i hope the world keeps turning, i like the world, it has been good to me.
on an interesting side note: my exwife has been calling and starting to talk to our son again. that is usually both bad news and good news. anyways, we always did communicate better naked, so we agreed to meet up on text and phone and watch a dirty movie on netflix together last night while we worked some things out. it makes perfect sense in a strange "is this my life" kind of way. except i fell asleep early and she never called. how funny is that? too old to even keep a porn date or fight. sad.
burrocrat
Well-known member
it was internet porn/sex, so it's not like i could catch something... pretty safe in my book. she always was pretty good at that sort of thing, which explains the initial attraction. in life sometimes you just have to recognize that there are some wildflowers, and it is not your job to crush them, just appreciate the beauty of the universe, from afar.
besides if i am going to die of a heart attack, i would rather it be from eating bacon and not my exwife, that one was way too spicy for me.
burrocrat
Well-known member
burros-ark 160821
burros-ark update: where did all the volatility go? nothing is moving, static, slack tide, a deadpool. so then the issue becomes discerning which way is it going to run, and when? politics are certainly playing a part, this is an unusual election cycle with two unusual candidates, each with their own vision of what the world should be. and both equally frightening, but for different reasons. but politics is no more a rigged game than the markets, right? so what, me worry? when it gets this calm, it is time to fear, this thing might just break, hard and fast.
View attachment 39182
burros-ark signal: hold (confirm a lot of previous sells, again). el vira and exposure are stagnant. nobody seems hungry for risk. what in the world are folks waiting for? the herd is all bunched up on the plain, and when they run it will be quick, like instict quick, and some will get eaten. that is how these things always go. hold. a part of me wants to just get in and enjoy the float up, but it is not really floating up anymore. i see no compelling reason to move. hold.
View attachment 39183
burros-ark stuff: aahhh, fall. back to school and the leaves will turn soon, some have already started. wonderfully cool nights, down in the 40’s overnight, finally i can sleep without waking up in a sweat. well, sometimes i still wake up in a sweat, but that has nothing to do with the temperature, and i got a step on the demon yet so no worries, just keep running, you’re not gonna eat me yet old wizard. this is the time of year i always want to buy a brand new car, when they are running the incentive deals to clean out the old horses to make room for the new horses, and they are making some really nice horses these days. but then i run the numbers and there is no way i can eat that kind of payment unless i want to sleep in my truck, which isn’t so bad actually, it’s way better than sleeping in the ditch, or worse, sleeping in your truck in the ditch. so i will just count my blessings for now, since i have way more blessings than money to count. as it should be. carry on. or carrion. who knows? the jury is still out on that one.
burros-ark update: where did all the volatility go? nothing is moving, static, slack tide, a deadpool. so then the issue becomes discerning which way is it going to run, and when? politics are certainly playing a part, this is an unusual election cycle with two unusual candidates, each with their own vision of what the world should be. and both equally frightening, but for different reasons. but politics is no more a rigged game than the markets, right? so what, me worry? when it gets this calm, it is time to fear, this thing might just break, hard and fast.
View attachment 39182
burros-ark signal: hold (confirm a lot of previous sells, again). el vira and exposure are stagnant. nobody seems hungry for risk. what in the world are folks waiting for? the herd is all bunched up on the plain, and when they run it will be quick, like instict quick, and some will get eaten. that is how these things always go. hold. a part of me wants to just get in and enjoy the float up, but it is not really floating up anymore. i see no compelling reason to move. hold.
View attachment 39183
burros-ark stuff: aahhh, fall. back to school and the leaves will turn soon, some have already started. wonderfully cool nights, down in the 40’s overnight, finally i can sleep without waking up in a sweat. well, sometimes i still wake up in a sweat, but that has nothing to do with the temperature, and i got a step on the demon yet so no worries, just keep running, you’re not gonna eat me yet old wizard. this is the time of year i always want to buy a brand new car, when they are running the incentive deals to clean out the old horses to make room for the new horses, and they are making some really nice horses these days. but then i run the numbers and there is no way i can eat that kind of payment unless i want to sleep in my truck, which isn’t so bad actually, it’s way better than sleeping in the ditch, or worse, sleeping in your truck in the ditch. so i will just count my blessings for now, since i have way more blessings than money to count. as it should be. carry on. or carrion. who knows? the jury is still out on that one.
burrocrat
Well-known member
omg, you have to see this, now!
there is a place in north east wyoming, it is called devil's tower. it is a vortex. it makes the hair on your arms stand on end. i am not joking, go there, feel it for yourself.
View attachment 39203
so take a look at today's market charts...
View attachment 39204
yep. devil's market.
not just once, three times now it is flashing.
get out! get out get out get out!
run!
there is a place in north east wyoming, it is called devil's tower. it is a vortex. it makes the hair on your arms stand on end. i am not joking, go there, feel it for yourself.
View attachment 39203
so take a look at today's market charts...
View attachment 39204
yep. devil's market.
not just once, three times now it is flashing.
get out! get out get out get out!
run!
burrocrat
Well-known member
so this door called devil's tower, it is unique, it stands alone on a barren plain, nothing for miles, then this. it makes you suck your breath in and stare like a dumb child. it is part creation myth and part con man distraction money pit now, but either way the power is unmistakable.
so today the market flashes devil's tower, big and bold. if you are familiar with ships and maybe part of the engineering crew, then you know this to your core. it's when the mains go dead and everything is dark and you have to use muscle memory and your internal mental map to find the passages in the darkness to your station, when the only light is the red rotating one and the blaring that won't stop whooonk whooonk whoooonk! do you go to surface and find air, or do you run to the engines and make them turn, please lord let them turn, this pig is floundering in the trough, turn!
this is really really bad, oh crap. devil's market flashed three times. get out. move! move like the frikkin wind!
so today the market flashes devil's tower, big and bold. if you are familiar with ships and maybe part of the engineering crew, then you know this to your core. it's when the mains go dead and everything is dark and you have to use muscle memory and your internal mental map to find the passages in the darkness to your station, when the only light is the red rotating one and the blaring that won't stop whooonk whooonk whoooonk! do you go to surface and find air, or do you run to the engines and make them turn, please lord let them turn, this pig is floundering in the trough, turn!
this is really really bad, oh crap. devil's market flashed three times. get out. move! move like the frikkin wind!
burrocrat
Well-known member
so every body is free to chart their own charts and count their own waves or whatever. but i know this one. i have my own feelers out there on the ether. and they are screaming, run! run like the beast is at your heels. just sayin...
either that, or it is just a big giant nipple. i happen to like nipples. also i like devil's tower. so that is a win win in my book. but it flashed three times, who flashes nipples three times?
i am sticking with my original interpretation. devil's market. get the f out, at least you will live to see another day. burro chart reading 101. some will pass and some will fail. same as it ever was.
either that, or it is just a big giant nipple. i happen to like nipples. also i like devil's tower. so that is a win win in my book. but it flashed three times, who flashes nipples three times?
i am sticking with my original interpretation. devil's market. get the f out, at least you will live to see another day. burro chart reading 101. some will pass and some will fail. same as it ever was.
FogSailing
Well-known member
Lots of "fake outs today" Burro, but the numbers stayed in the same range they have been in for over a week. Oil takes a hit today and the 30 Year Treasury down, and the are CB's playing with the currency. If the CBs weren't playing I'd say "be a bear". The SPX action has been range bound for some time now, coiling a like a spring to be sprung. I like your call and hope you're right. I'd like to see 2140 before the end of August and see 2200 in September; but as the old comic books used say "Only the Shadow Knows".
View attachment 39205
FS
View attachment 39205
FS
sgtbriangreen
Member
"Total Recall" had a woman with three boobies and it was intriguing. Also the "buy fear, sell greed" theory. Kinda makes me want to stay in. BUT, you are doing a lot better than rookie me, and I have been looking for a reason to get out. Hopefully tomorrow will be an up day to bail. I have been in for over a month. This is the longest I have been in this year.
burrocrat
Well-known member
burros-ark 160828
burros-ark update: some folks have finally started to move, that is good because i was close to running out of patience and that is usually not a good thing. the chart clearly shows only one misstep this year for the ark, it missed the pop after the brexit surprise. on the other hand, it also missed the drop, very few saw that black swan coming, but from a frequency and timing of the stairstep moves it was obviously the shot to take. oh well. now there is nothing on the horizon and it has been this way for some time. with the politics and the bankers desperately trying to hold the status quo, because if they don’t the increased interest rate and corresponding debt payments will kill a fragile service-related economy barely coasting along, it is hard to envision anything other than a continued slow melt up. when the way is crystal clear and there is only one path to take, that is when things tend to get shaken.
View attachment 39257
burros-ark signal: hold (confirm a lot of previous sells, again). el vira and exposure are moving again, towards volatile trading range and suggesting a move in, but the market is complacent and not confirming the direction. hold. i would like to see one of those bombshell death defying stomach turning drops to wake up the masses, but i am not holding my breath in this rigged game. hold.
View attachment 39258
burros-ark stuff: so the ark is a system based on reading the resident’s moves, but what does it read when the members don’t move? it has been in stasis for some time. it seems many have decided to follow the system instead of informing the system. this is an inherent but intentional design flaw. you cannot understand how something works until you see how it breaks. even my ‘fix’ to mask individual moves and maybe free up some to operate has had little to no effect. so here we sit, and the ark is not motivated to sail, yet. but at some point it will. and when it does, then it does. simple as that. this is a good point in time to ‘jump the shark’ if you want to get ahead of the game. but be careful, sharks have sharp teeth. happy trading to all, and to all a good fight.
(edit: whew, that was close, somehow my original post got the images wrong, if you saw it i apologize, i like flowers and gold slave girl bikinis and light sabers, but that is a different story.)
burros-ark update: some folks have finally started to move, that is good because i was close to running out of patience and that is usually not a good thing. the chart clearly shows only one misstep this year for the ark, it missed the pop after the brexit surprise. on the other hand, it also missed the drop, very few saw that black swan coming, but from a frequency and timing of the stairstep moves it was obviously the shot to take. oh well. now there is nothing on the horizon and it has been this way for some time. with the politics and the bankers desperately trying to hold the status quo, because if they don’t the increased interest rate and corresponding debt payments will kill a fragile service-related economy barely coasting along, it is hard to envision anything other than a continued slow melt up. when the way is crystal clear and there is only one path to take, that is when things tend to get shaken.
View attachment 39257
burros-ark signal: hold (confirm a lot of previous sells, again). el vira and exposure are moving again, towards volatile trading range and suggesting a move in, but the market is complacent and not confirming the direction. hold. i would like to see one of those bombshell death defying stomach turning drops to wake up the masses, but i am not holding my breath in this rigged game. hold.
View attachment 39258
burros-ark stuff: so the ark is a system based on reading the resident’s moves, but what does it read when the members don’t move? it has been in stasis for some time. it seems many have decided to follow the system instead of informing the system. this is an inherent but intentional design flaw. you cannot understand how something works until you see how it breaks. even my ‘fix’ to mask individual moves and maybe free up some to operate has had little to no effect. so here we sit, and the ark is not motivated to sail, yet. but at some point it will. and when it does, then it does. simple as that. this is a good point in time to ‘jump the shark’ if you want to get ahead of the game. but be careful, sharks have sharp teeth. happy trading to all, and to all a good fight.
(edit: whew, that was close, somehow my original post got the images wrong, if you saw it i apologize, i like flowers and gold slave girl bikinis and light sabers, but that is a different story.)
Last edited:
burrocrat
Well-known member
i hardly ever go to bars, sometimes i talk about bars, i live across the street from an upscale bar and grill. sundays are the best for people watching because it says a lot about who did what saturday night. you can tell by the cars left in the parking lot on sunday morning, i have brought this up before, but today is going to be interesting.
anyways, there is this girl, i call her red car girl, and her car is almost always left overnight in the parking lot, then she gets dropped off by some other random car in the morning. usually it is a different car or truck that drops her off, but sometimes you see a repeat. i have wondered, is she finally getting serious about silver truck guy or blue car guy when she does that ride again? what warranted a second visit to that well? or maybe she was unable to convince some strange and went to the second string team. i have been meaning to ask her about that, but i am afraid to look in those eyes in case i get accidentally hooked. so i just watch.
anyways, her red car is still in the lot this morning, the only one left, and if she don't hurry she is going to be late for church. so this should be an interesting scramble and peel out with the hem of her dress stuck out the driver's side door and the tussled hair panic look on her face. she sure has a pretty smile though.
anyways, there is this girl, i call her red car girl, and her car is almost always left overnight in the parking lot, then she gets dropped off by some other random car in the morning. usually it is a different car or truck that drops her off, but sometimes you see a repeat. i have wondered, is she finally getting serious about silver truck guy or blue car guy when she does that ride again? what warranted a second visit to that well? or maybe she was unable to convince some strange and went to the second string team. i have been meaning to ask her about that, but i am afraid to look in those eyes in case i get accidentally hooked. so i just watch.
anyways, her red car is still in the lot this morning, the only one left, and if she don't hurry she is going to be late for church. so this should be an interesting scramble and peel out with the hem of her dress stuck out the driver's side door and the tussled hair panic look on her face. she sure has a pretty smile though.
ravensfan
Well-known member
Have to agree with you burro. It's been awhile since the ark has moved. In fact, I'm getting a severe case of monkey butt after sitting in the G Fund for so long. Fear not though, the indicators I use are moving in the right direction and if it continues, I'll be making a move very soon. The only thing that concerns me this that September is one of the worst performing months for equities, so I will need to be nimble. Never thought I would say it but it sure would be nice to have a little volatility.
As for the girl in the red car, let the air out of one of her tires and then walk over and offer to help her fix her flat. What have you got to lose?
As for the girl in the red car, let the air out of one of her tires and then walk over and offer to help her fix her flat. What have you got to lose?
