FogSailing
Well-known member
I think you're reading it correctly LS..
FS
FS
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burrocrat's Account Talk
- Thread starter burrocrat
- Start date
burrocrat
Well-known member
burros-ark 160131
burros-ark update: well, well, well, that was some hot week. mouse and blackbird healed themselves up out of the red while hawk grabbed a big score. several arkers made bold moves in at a time of great uncertainty and it paid off good. burros-ark finally separated from the g-fund trend line and crossed over the f-fund gains like somebody slipped a viagra in its drink, sproing! the ark straight average of all members is doing twice as good as the market (or only half as bad, depending on how you look at the glass). there is funny stuff going on in the markets and things are still not adding up, the bank of japan is now negative interest rates and charging you to hold your ‘money’ ‘safe’, ha, an oxymoron. janet yellen and the fed decided to not pee in the punch bowl again, yet. oil is in the doghouse, geopolitical events are unsettling with swedish gangs beating up refugees, and u.s. national politics are unhinged off the chain too. what a dangerous and hardly predictable and unsettling time to risk your life savings. crazy. on an interesting side note, a new barbeque joint opened up in town and it is good stuff. we got a rack of smoked and marinated wet ribs, a very nice sweet and not too spicy sauce, fall off the bone good and tender, mmmmm, they go great with beer, but then again, what doesn’t go great with beer?
View attachment 36895
burros-ark signal: sell. the indicators are out of whack. el vira is at a bouyant and optimistic 18%, but exposure is barely at a moderate 61% allocation. the money is not where the mouth is, red flag, contrarian sell signal. i don’t think we have seen the bottom, in fact i feel like it is about to drop way out from underneath us. when it does, my personal burrocrat account is just itching to get my money in good. but for now, sell. the ark system will execute a full trade out to g-fund effective at cob Monday.
View attachment 36896
burros-ark stuff: no extra stuff this week as I have been too busy playing free money internet poker.
burros-ark update: well, well, well, that was some hot week. mouse and blackbird healed themselves up out of the red while hawk grabbed a big score. several arkers made bold moves in at a time of great uncertainty and it paid off good. burros-ark finally separated from the g-fund trend line and crossed over the f-fund gains like somebody slipped a viagra in its drink, sproing! the ark straight average of all members is doing twice as good as the market (or only half as bad, depending on how you look at the glass). there is funny stuff going on in the markets and things are still not adding up, the bank of japan is now negative interest rates and charging you to hold your ‘money’ ‘safe’, ha, an oxymoron. janet yellen and the fed decided to not pee in the punch bowl again, yet. oil is in the doghouse, geopolitical events are unsettling with swedish gangs beating up refugees, and u.s. national politics are unhinged off the chain too. what a dangerous and hardly predictable and unsettling time to risk your life savings. crazy. on an interesting side note, a new barbeque joint opened up in town and it is good stuff. we got a rack of smoked and marinated wet ribs, a very nice sweet and not too spicy sauce, fall off the bone good and tender, mmmmm, they go great with beer, but then again, what doesn’t go great with beer?
View attachment 36895
burros-ark signal: sell. the indicators are out of whack. el vira is at a bouyant and optimistic 18%, but exposure is barely at a moderate 61% allocation. the money is not where the mouth is, red flag, contrarian sell signal. i don’t think we have seen the bottom, in fact i feel like it is about to drop way out from underneath us. when it does, my personal burrocrat account is just itching to get my money in good. but for now, sell. the ark system will execute a full trade out to g-fund effective at cob Monday.
View attachment 36896
burros-ark stuff: no extra stuff this week as I have been too busy playing free money internet poker.
Boghie
Well-known member
Damn, I was thinking of moving that 25% back in. Probably not the full 25% I pulled out, maybe 10%. Don't like making large moves unless we are at the limits...
This is one of those times, Burro, that one of the members is swayed by the system. At least a little bit. I like the slow trade of the system...
This is one of those times, Burro, that one of the members is swayed by the system. At least a little bit. I like the slow trade of the system...
burrocrat
Well-known member
No sense in getting greedy. Exit to G Fund COB 2/1/16...Following the BAS...(burros ark signal)
Thanks burro!!!
it's all about the bas, 'bout that bas, no trouble, no trouble.
i am feeling pretty dang good about that last trade score and getting out today with a negligible -0.02 loss, pretty dang cool if you ask me. there'll be some times later to get that booty back.
Lakebound
Member
burrocrat
Well-known member
whew, that is looking like one lucky sell the bas executed yesterday, i hardly ever step off the ride at the right time.
i don't know about anybody else, but i think the fear is back and we are looking at some tough times ahead for a bit. for anybody still in, it wouldn't hurt my feelings if i was wrong.
i don't know about anybody else, but i think the fear is back and we are looking at some tough times ahead for a bit. for anybody still in, it wouldn't hurt my feelings if i was wrong.
Lakebound
Member
Be wrong for a couple of days why don't you?
Frank
Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk
burrocrat
Well-known member
Be wrong for a couple of days why don't you?
Frank
Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk
i am never wrong, just ask all my ex-girlfriends. they will tell you that and a whole lot more wrong with me. why do they always leave so bitter?
ravensfan
Well-known member
Be wrong for a couple of days why don't you?
Frank
Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk
Burro is smart! Burro is wise! Be one with the Burro!!!
burrocrat
Well-known member
that's not the only thing that's annoying about me. see earlier post.
is it the cuss words, the near-constant sexual innuendos, or the lack-of-capitals conversational-style of the text that is offputting? (not that it matters because i is what i is and good luck changing that, but i would still like to know and i do value feedback...).
That is all and the other points you bring up are generally funny--at least it isn't boring. Thanks
burrocrat
Well-known member
burros-ark 160207
burros-ark update: wow, did that ever take a turn for the worse, not a single arker made any money last week (nor the married ones either). some got out just in time and some got out late and took a few hits, but nobody has a higher return than last week’s tally except a couple of g-funders, the ark itself broke exactly even after losing a small bit on monday’s basically flat close and then made a couple pennies back in the g-fund to not go backwards. that is the most transfers i have seen in one week and all of them are out, just 4 arkers remain holding any exposure to the markets, crazy stuff, the ship is listing hard to port. surpisingly, i don’t feel even a little tingle up my leg, haven’t had to fight off the urge to jump in on any of the major down days all year, maybe i am losing my touch but i just don’t have the appetite for this market right now, it scares me. hawk is the only one beating the g-fund and nobody is beating the f-fund, burro and squirrel are limping along tied with g-fund, and everybody else is eating some level of pain. the market is trying to tell us something, i wonder what it is?
View attachment 36997
burros-ark signal: hold (confirm prior sell signal). wait, maybe that is putting it too gently, sell! sell, sell, sell! el vira is at a never before seen -15% and exposure is also at an historical low of 27%, these are massively negative indications, like the end of days is coming or something. all the equity funds and the ark average are at or near their yearly lows and it feels like this has more room to run. if anybody had the nuts to jump in on a contrarian spike play to catch a rally they could score like a hero, but may just as likely end up a zero. the system is not moving this week, got to go round and check the gauges, recalibrate and wait. sell.
View attachment 36998
burros-ark stuff: the above chart is saying some interesting things: on a weekly time frame there were only two positive periods so far and only one of them had enough gas in it to make for a decent reward on the risk, s-fund the risky one is taking it in the shorts hard, normally the c-fund big chips would represent relative safety but it ends up in almost exactly the same spot as the rigged international i-fund so it looks like the whole world then is stuck in the same bucket of crap. it’s a small consolation, but at least the arker average is doing at least twice as good as the buy-and-hold markets, but i suspect that fact will not help anybody sleep better at night. I don’t know what to do so I am just going to sit tight until this blows over, and it will blow over, but the real question is when and how far down the slope. good luck and be careful out there.
burros-ark update: wow, did that ever take a turn for the worse, not a single arker made any money last week (nor the married ones either). some got out just in time and some got out late and took a few hits, but nobody has a higher return than last week’s tally except a couple of g-funders, the ark itself broke exactly even after losing a small bit on monday’s basically flat close and then made a couple pennies back in the g-fund to not go backwards. that is the most transfers i have seen in one week and all of them are out, just 4 arkers remain holding any exposure to the markets, crazy stuff, the ship is listing hard to port. surpisingly, i don’t feel even a little tingle up my leg, haven’t had to fight off the urge to jump in on any of the major down days all year, maybe i am losing my touch but i just don’t have the appetite for this market right now, it scares me. hawk is the only one beating the g-fund and nobody is beating the f-fund, burro and squirrel are limping along tied with g-fund, and everybody else is eating some level of pain. the market is trying to tell us something, i wonder what it is?
View attachment 36997
burros-ark signal: hold (confirm prior sell signal). wait, maybe that is putting it too gently, sell! sell, sell, sell! el vira is at a never before seen -15% and exposure is also at an historical low of 27%, these are massively negative indications, like the end of days is coming or something. all the equity funds and the ark average are at or near their yearly lows and it feels like this has more room to run. if anybody had the nuts to jump in on a contrarian spike play to catch a rally they could score like a hero, but may just as likely end up a zero. the system is not moving this week, got to go round and check the gauges, recalibrate and wait. sell.
View attachment 36998
burros-ark stuff: the above chart is saying some interesting things: on a weekly time frame there were only two positive periods so far and only one of them had enough gas in it to make for a decent reward on the risk, s-fund the risky one is taking it in the shorts hard, normally the c-fund big chips would represent relative safety but it ends up in almost exactly the same spot as the rigged international i-fund so it looks like the whole world then is stuck in the same bucket of crap. it’s a small consolation, but at least the arker average is doing at least twice as good as the buy-and-hold markets, but i suspect that fact will not help anybody sleep better at night. I don’t know what to do so I am just going to sit tight until this blows over, and it will blow over, but the real question is when and how far down the slope. good luck and be careful out there.
burrocrat
Well-known member
oh that mr. market is a tricky devil, first it comes right out the gate and rips your arm off for -3% and lets you sweat it most of the trading day, then gives back a portion to only finish down about half as bad as it looked. whew! only -1.5%! meh, it's just a flesh wound. tricky.
i suspect this market will be back for the other half it left behind, just was saving it for later, like banking pain and fear for when it can be used to fuller effect. if this was the bottom today then i will eat my shorts, which doesn't sound all that appealing to me no matter how much ranch dressing i smother them in, but it is better than eating my left nut which i would not be uncomfortable betting that there are bigger losses to follow soon.
may you live in exciting times. the market has my interest now, maybe another 5% down and some shots at a quick score, but it is going to take a while to dig out of this hole. people are getting damaged and hitting their pain point, most people do not recover quickly after getting kicked this hard this long, it can take years to come back and some of them are close to retirement, this one is going to leave a mark, a big mark.
happy trading...
i suspect this market will be back for the other half it left behind, just was saving it for later, like banking pain and fear for when it can be used to fuller effect. if this was the bottom today then i will eat my shorts, which doesn't sound all that appealing to me no matter how much ranch dressing i smother them in, but it is better than eating my left nut which i would not be uncomfortable betting that there are bigger losses to follow soon.
may you live in exciting times. the market has my interest now, maybe another 5% down and some shots at a quick score, but it is going to take a while to dig out of this hole. people are getting damaged and hitting their pain point, most people do not recover quickly after getting kicked this hard this long, it can take years to come back and some of them are close to retirement, this one is going to leave a mark, a big mark.
happy trading...
alevin
Well-known member
It's gonna mess up your stats if I start following the ark signals now, b. but I do like how the ark is doing. hmm. speaking for myself, I'm not doing horribly, I just don't like losing money, period. still, better than losing a whole lot more money.
bear market behavior in my system is untested, can't look back beyond 2011. wish I could. alternatively, wish I knew how to write the algo necessary to create similar charts so I could look back to 07-09 for myself. not skilled enough for that one. ah well, at least I have a system now with pretty darn clear signals, just have to juggle between 2 different timeframes to make decisions.
bear market behavior in my system is untested, can't look back beyond 2011. wish I could. alternatively, wish I knew how to write the algo necessary to create similar charts so I could look back to 07-09 for myself. not skilled enough for that one. ah well, at least I have a system now with pretty darn clear signals, just have to juggle between 2 different timeframes to make decisions.
Boghie
Well-known member
Bad, bad juju happens when you break a system...
