burrocrat's Account Talk

I blew it up with the zoom function Burro, but it is still fuzzy to my eyes...of course, maybe that's the wine from last night...:D

FS
 
Hey everybody...

My CAGR for 2016 is -79.32%. Going to start an investment letter.
Best move. Get into equities 2015/11/19 - near the top of the market!!!

By the way, the 2016 CAGR is obviously the 'estimated' return. Hope Quicken if off by a bit...
 
BurroNoah! What do I do? Ark, ark, aaarrrk!

When do I get back in to C or S or I or even F?

Seriously, thanks for the ark and it did do well last year. Reading everything as I do I think no one actually knows what to do at this point.

I am with FS about the fuzziness of the picture and I have had no adult beverages recently. Somewhere in the upload photos thing there has got to be something about size. Thanks for your efforts.

PO
 
just for the record, here is what the weekly burros-ark newsletter looks like in a word document. but i have to zoom out so far to make the whole thing small enough on my laptop display for a single image capture that the result is unreadable when posted. so i will post the text and parts and pieces by hand. it is not a function of how big of a picture tsptalk forum allows but the limitations of my computing hardware and i have no plans to upgrade that anytime soon as it does my bills, finds me internet porn, and plays world of warcraft just fine too so i am pretty happy about that.

View attachment 36710
 
burros-ark update: wow, this is one hot kitchen and it don’t look like it wants to cool off anytime soon. only two weeks into the year and losses are piling up, stackin it deep and sellin it cheap. four arkers jumped out, but one of them turned around and plunged right back in. mouse, lion, and chameleon had enough and decided to limit the damages, while cougar is on the hunt in a very dangerous jungle, the rest of us are hiding in the bush hoping the big mean gorilla eats somebody else and gets full before it finds us. these are large losses and they matter, it is not easy to make +12% in a year and even harder to make +12% just to break even as many i suspect have lost their appetite for this risk. the only entry i even considered was on the wednesday -3% drop but i would’ve had to pull the trigger right back out on thursday morning to snag a 1.25% gain and i don’t think i would’ve followed through with that before getting smacked again on friday, the risk/reward equation is just not adding up. you got to fight to live, but you got to live first or else you miss the fight, tough market. sometimes the best thing about today is that there will be a tomorrow, maybe.

View attachment 36711

burros-ark signal: hold (confirm previous sell signal). elvira and exposure are at extremely low levels and practically screaming for a ballsy contrarian buy like a wide open receiver jumping up and down and waving his arms in the end zone, but the window is so narrow and quick that i don’t think the weekly trade duration function of the system is a good fit in this volatile environment. it might not be a bad idea anyways as right now the system is 8%-11% ahead of the market and could buy in and sit there for the rest of the year and still be guaranteed a relative win. but the objective of the system is not to beat the market overall, rather to win each trade so this is a no go for burros-ark. besides, when you tap the 'ask the audience' lifeline button you better listen to them and arkers are saying to get out, so out it is. hold.

View attachment 36712

burros-ark housekeeping and random stuff: i am experimenting with this graph (thanks again slick) as a means of communicating weekly and overall performance of the ark and my burrocrat accounts versus the tsp funds, and i welcome any feedback as to how effective that is, readability, etc. i think it will be a good tool over time and reveal some things. my personal burrocrat account is wide awake and looking to headhunt a couple quick percent but it is going to take a mid-week drop and pop scenario to execute as i just don’t want to put my money at risk over the weekend, these are trying times and you better be fast and sure if you want to escape the reaping. the burros-ark system with its weekly trading buy-and-hold timing window is just not feeling it right now, there is huge risk and something big afoot in this jungle, maybe it is better to let things shake out a bit before making a run for it. hell, we could sit in g-fund all year and make ~2% by next december which might just look like a huge victory then. up and down she goes, where she stops who knows? not me.
 
Some depressing haiku

Swimming - flood waters.
Raining 40 days, 40 nights - San Diego...
Sunshine - for one day,
And, that damn Ark drops on my head...

Yowser... I was going to say that I haven't seen this kind of action since 2011, but that ain't quite true after studying things a bit. While not 2008, it is more 2008 than 2011. Going to try to hold my standard conservative allocation rather than perform a full bail out. Gotta be in to win - but if things continue to deteriorate than one has to think about holding what one has in his hands rather than grasping for things outside his reach.

My next bailout will be somewhere around -10% to -15% for the year as measured by my AT record. Since my return/risk is 4%/6% than an S&P500 (C Fund) dump to -25% (max for another standard deviation of negative performance) will leave me at around -13%. A hard bounce back (positive) will leave me about even. If I have to bail at -13% than I am going almost the full Monty - the devils thong. It will be 2008 non-sexy... Don't look and hope for the best...
 
just for the record, here is what the weekly burros-ark newsletter looks like in a word document. but i have to zoom out so far to make the whole thing small enough on my laptop display for a single image capture that the result is unreadable when posted.

You could see if increasing the resolution on your laptop before capturing the image helps. Doing so will 'shrink' it on your screen while also increasing the fidelity and thus, making the post 'bigger' when posted here.

Also, there is a 'PASTE FROM WORD' button on the Advanced reply/post screen. I've never used it; maybe give it a whirl.
 
testing, again. pdf document printed from word, 286kb.

(nope, max uploadable pdf size = 244kb). hmmm.
 
Last edited:
direct copy and paste from word function, it looks like it strips out the embedded images of spreadsheet and graph.


burros-ark 160117

burros-ark update: wow, this is one hot kitchen and it don’t look like it wants to cool off anytime soon. only two weeks into the year and losses are piling up, stackin it deep and sellin it cheap. four arkers jumped out, but one of them turned around and plunged right back in. mouse, lion, and chameleon had enough and decided to limit the damages, while cougar is on the hunt in a very dangerous jungle, the rest of us are hiding in the bush hoping the big mean gorilla eats somebody else and gets full before it finds us. these are large losses and they matter, it is not easy to make +12% in a year and even harder to make +12% just to break even as many i suspect have lost their appetite for this risk. the only entry i even considered was on the wednesday -3% drop but i would’ve had to pull the trigger right back out on thursday morning to snag a 1.25% gain and i don’t think i would’ve followed through with that before getting smacked again on friday, the risk/reward equation is just not adding up. you got to fight to live, but you got to live first or else you miss the fight, tough market. sometimes the best thing about today is that there will be a tomorrow, maybe.



burros-ark signal: hold (confirm previous sell signal). elvira and exposure are at extremely low levels and practically screaming for a ballsy contrarian buy like a wide open receiver jumping up and down and waving his arms in the end zone, but the window is so narrow and quick that i don’t think the weekly trade duration function of the system is a good fit in this volatile environment. it might not be a bad idea anyways as right now the system is 8%-11% ahead of the market and could buy in and sit there for the rest of the year and still be guaranteed a relative win. but the objective of the system is not to beat the market overall, rather to win each trade so this is a no go for burros-ark. besides, when you tap the ‘ask the audience’ lifeline you better listen to them and arkers are saying to get out, so out it is. hold.

burros-ark housekeeping and random stuff: i am experimenting with this graph (thanks again slick) as a means of communicating weekly and overall performance of the ark and my burrocrat accounts versus the tsp funds, and i welcome any feedback as to how effective that is, readability, etc. i think it will be a good tool over time and reveal some things. my personal burrocrat account is wide awake and looking to headhunt a couple quick percent but it is going to take a mid-week drop and pop scenario to execute as i just don’t want to put my money at risk over the weekend, these are trying times and you better be fast and sure if you want to escape the reaping. the burros-ark system with its weekly trading buy-and-hold timing window is just not feeling it right now, there is huge risk and something big afoot in this jungle, maybe it is better to let things shake out a bit before making a run for it. hell, we could sit in g-fund all year and make ~2% by next december which might just look like a huge victory then. up and down she goes, where she stops who knows? not me.
 
You could see if increasing the resolution on your laptop before capturing the image helps. Doing so will 'shrink' it on your screen while also increasing the fidelity and thus, making the post 'bigger' when posted here.

Also, there is a 'PASTE FROM WORD' button on the Advanced reply/post screen. I've never used it; maybe give it a whirl.

i'm already at max display resolution for my laptop display.
 
If you like, you can attach the word doc like I did here as an example.

Then I'll download it and see what I can do with it.

thanks, but no. the metadata in the file contains registered owner of the software and other personal microsoft collected data clues. i prefer to find a way to take a 'screenshot' bare image representation of the writeup not the underlying actual data inputs. maybe if i could just teach everybody to read morse code and love carrier pigeons.
 
thanks, but no. the metadata in the file contains registered owner of the software and other personal microsoft collected data clues. i prefer to find a way to take a 'screenshot' bare image representation of the writeup not the underlying actual inputs.


No problem. But you can scrub the metadata, fyi. :) If MS didn't allow scrubbing, no one would send anyone any documents.
 
hey cuz, did you make any progress on the tsptalk private poker room? i searched and it appears both pokerstars and fulltilt allow that private games thing but it prevented me from going to the sites i think because of my u.s. domain controller.
 
hey cuz, did you make any progress on the tsptalk private poker room? i searched and it appears both pokerstars and fulltilt allow that private games thing but it prevented me from going to the sites i think because of my u.s. domain controller.

Yeah, I think those two still block most US states.

Not yet...had an epiphany and have been playing with my trading system ever since. Excel is running code as I type.

But I haven't forgot. :)
 
i woke up from a nap and i can't remember what the dream was about, but i feel like trading. i have this overwhelming sense of impending optimism and i can't hardly wait for the markets to open tomorrow and see where it goes. i think there might be some good slingshot bounces and chances to make a big score, this is so exciting!
 
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