burrocrat's Account Talk

[Boghie]

Eeee Gads.....

I hate sitting in a losing hand... I got hungry so I thought I'd cull the herd... I might be the pickings of vultures soon...

 

[burrocrat]

Eeee Gads.....

I hate sitting in a losing hand... I got hungry so I thought I'd cull the herd... I might be the pickings of vultures soon...

naah, don't worry, even the vultures have lost their appetite for this meal. the only ones left standing are the lucky, not the good.

greatness is not defined by what trouble you run into, rather how you respond to trouble.

 

[burrocrat]

burros-ark housekeeping (7):

on signals... the ark tallies up the weeks events and issues either a 'buy', 'sell', or 'hold' over the weekend. 'buy' and 'sell' are pretty easy to figure out, that is what the ark says to do. 'hold' is a bit trickier, but it is basically a confirmation of the previous signal. if last week the ark said 'sell' and then the next week says 'hold', then that is a double sell stay out signal.

the reason a 'hold' signal is tricky is because i don't think any members of the ark actually follow the ark signals, as it should be because the ark follows them, not the other way around. so when the ark says sell and a person stays in then the next week the ark says hold, do i hold my long position or listen to the double sell message? for the purposes of the ark, a hold means there is no good reason to change direction of the last signal.

the other thing to remember about the signals is they are not just based on what the members of the ark do. there are lots of things that go into making the signal, my 'secret sauce' if you will.

actually, for every member of the ark there is a backup (proofer) autotracker trader with a similar style i also watch informally, and if the starter and the backup diverge in their actions then it needs paying attention to. did the arker alter their instinct because they are being watched? have they lost the mojo? sometimes i switch the roster just because, but all arkers must be public non-premie members so we can see the moves or else their is no value there for this system, (but they still have value to me as folks, just not a good fit for the ark).

also there are many other things that go into making the burros-ark signal besides what 12 tsptalkers do with their trades. media news push, geopolitical events, commodity and other 'real' goods exchanges and demand, things overheard at the grocery, the little hairs on the back of my neck, all of it. it all gets synthesized into a sign, a direction.

a sell means sell. a buy means buy. a hold confirms last ark signal. simple. i like it like that. the burros-ark signal is just another trick to put in your bag of tricks to be considered when making your own decisions, as it should be. otherwise we would end up with the blind leading the blind.

 

[burrocrat]

ok, to follow up on the earlier assessment, one full trading week into the new year this is how it goes:

only about 1/4 of public autotracker traders are positive above zero.
3/4 are down at least 1%
2/3 are down at least 3%
1/2 are down at least 5%
1/6 are down at least 7%

but on the bright side, nobody is down 9%. yet.

yep, still brutal.

buh rue tall. 1 week, 7 days (only 4 trading days) into a new year and the investment devastation is freakin brutal.

of the public autotracker:

23% have positive returns above zero
74% have lost one percent or more
63% have lost three percent or more
41% have lost five percent or more.

yep. massive down draft, minus -6%. how many make positive +6% in a year? how many can dig out of this hole and break even in the remaining 51 weeks left in the year? i don't think folks realize how heavy this hit means. and about half just lost their appetite for equities. it is hard to be a big swinging dick (official wall street term) when you just got your balls cut off. buh rue tall.

 

[burrocrat]

burros-ark update: welcome to a new year, a fresh start, the possibilities are endless. whack! right out of the gate the market came swinging and it is still punching, hard. smack! bam, boom, pow! only blackbird had enough wits about him to bail and tap uncle, a few lucky souls are sitting on the bench, and everybody else is getting their ass kicked, hard. still, most are holding their ground, do we expect a bounce? a turn around? some salvation? i think those things might be in short supply this year. so this is a mean dog we got ahold of here and it wants to slip the chain. better be quick and good and lucky in this environment. this makes for great trading opportunities, if not for good sleep. basically almost everybody got stripped bare, nekked from nipples to nails, no shame in that, but no cover either, the market made smoothies of us all. you know things are pretty bad when 1/20 of 1% is winning. ouch.

View attachment 36627

burros-ark signal: sell. total sell. gtf out. this top is wobbling and going down, do not be fooled by a small recovery and mistake it for hope. take it for what it is, a quick trading opportunity. and don't mind the pain, it goes away after you get hungry enough, hardly a bother. sell.

View attachment 36628

f-fund is winning and s-fund is losing. g- and f-funds are tied or beating all arkers. most arkers are beating s-fund. i am going to try this colors thing to id winners and losers within my basic list and see if it becomes clearer over time, maybe not. also i am working on making a cumulative graph of the data but two points make for a pretty boring map. anyways, good luck out there, it is brutal cold. in my neck of the woods it is -teens below zero at night and maybe get to zero break even in the day, but the breeze is not bad so the realfeel windchill thing makes it only like -25 on bare skin, not like it is howling 35 mph and making even the trees scream. who would go out in bare skin on days like this? be careful in this market, an ill wind is about to blow.

 

[burrocrat]

public service announcement: it is freaking cold. and it is going to get colder. below zero the snow does not crunch anymore, it squeaks. a painful crying squeak with every step, you can hear it, you can feel it in your bones.

View attachment 36629

the kind of cold that kicks in your door, knocks out your teeth, and rams down your throat before taking you breath away. freakin cold. don't worry, it only happens 3 or 4 times a year like this, these things go in cycles. but is it cold. and if you live east of the mississippi it is on it's way to you, just a matter of time. button up buttercups. because next week is going to be even worse. get used to it. cold.

on the bright side, it kills all the pesky bees and bugs and snakes and things that stack up and rot in the fetid humid always warm south, god's little bonus. also things become crystal clear in these temperatures, you can feel them and hear them, everything. even the rocks and trees make noise, they crackle and pop and screech. cold. good luck with that.

this is why god invented crockpots and chili and knoephla soup and fireplaces. bundle up.

 

[Whipsaw]

Burro! The coin showed up on Friday, its fantastic I found coin case to put it in. Have been showing it off, thanks again!

 

[PessOptimist]

public service announcement: it is freaking cold. and it is going to get colder. below zero the snow does not crunch anymore, it squeaks. a painful crying squeak with every step, you can hear it, you can feel it in your bones.

View attachment 36629

the kind of cold that kicks in your door, knocks out your teeth, and rams down your throat before taking you breath away. freakin cold. don't worry, it only happens 3 or 4 times a year like this, these things go in cycles. but is it cold. and if you live east of the mississippi it is on it's way to you, just a matter of time. button up buttercups. because next week is going to be even worse. get used to it. cold.

on the bright side, it kills all the pesky bees and bugs and snakes and things that stack up and rot in the fetid humid always warm south, god's little bonus. also things become crystal clear in these temperatures, you can feel them and hear them, everything. even the rocks and trees make noise, they crackle and pop and screech. cold. good luck with that.

this is why god invented crockpots and chili and knoephla soup and fireplaces. bundle up.

I agree with the crystal clear thing. I have not experienced any temperatures below zero for years but one Thanksgiving morning in Iowa several years ago stands out. Woke up about 6AM before Granny or SO, looked at the thermometer, -30F. Hadn't experienced that since the NH days pre early 70s. Went outside to have a smoke, decided it was cold and got in the old truck to see if it would start. It did so I let her warm up knowing my jumper cables would be needed later. The point of this is that the corn stalks were still standing bare of ears, all frosty and white, it was dead silent as the sun was coming up and just beautiful. For a very very short period of time I remembered why some people live in climates like this. Crystal clear it was. Plus bragging rights that I got my vehicle started and it was not in a garage. Now I like living in a place we complain because it has been in the 40s for a week.

PO

 

[alevin]

Those subzero mornings with crisp crunch snow and crisp air and blue blue skies-make a person know they are alive. bracing! We get them every now and then around here, have lived other places where those days froze all the pipes in town for a week or so, kept all 3 plumbers running flat out for days on end getting people back up and running, not to mention heating oil guys busy delivering 50-gallon barrels of straight diesel and hooking them up to the furnace, as substitute for the gelled up winter fuel mix that isn't running the furnace at the moment. :worried:

 

[nnuut]

This is winter finally, gonna be a cold one in the East this year. Is it colder than a Well Digger's Arse yet?

 

[burrocrat]

ok, before i get into the specifics i want to tell you about my problem. i am having an msexcel spreadsheet issue and i need some help. i know there is a spreadsheet tips thread somewhere but i can't find it and i am getting ticked off. i have tried the pretend it's a car starter technique but it is not working. first i talked sweet to it 'you are a pretty spreadsheet' and tapped up and down it with the digital equivalent of a crescent wrench 'please turn over for me honey', but no go... then i hit it harder 'you like that huh? roll over baby, now!', but that didn't work either. so i am about out of patience and either am going to break the wrench or the freakin starter next attempt because it ain't working now so what is there to lose?

but i figured i would ask for help from some experts first, lucky spreadsheet.

 

[burrocrat]

i have data that looks like this...

View attachment 36645

 

[burrocrat]

i have data that looks like this...

View attachment 36645

i desire a chart that looks something like this...

View attachment 36646

basically along the x axis i want the weekly date starting at beginning of the year 160101 and eventually running through 161231 the end of the year.

also i want the y axis to be 0% in the middle and ranging up or down depending on tsp.gov fund gains.

and for the lines in the chart i want 7 of them: burrocrat, burros-ark, and the 5 main tsp funds g f c s i, each of them in a different color.

and then after that i want a legend that tells you which color is me or the system or the funds what represent.

and also if it is not too much trouble i would like a title for the map that says "burros-ark 2016", but i am seriously considering changing that to "kiss my a** bill gates and all your minions can s*** my spreadsheet d***!".

i have put the crescent wrench away now and am feeling a bit calmer so i will just trust the expertise on this board and be patient and wait...

thanks.

 

[burrocrat]

thank you usercuz! that is almost exactly what i wanted. i can't figure out how to move the 'date' x axis labels down to the bottom yet, i can select it as an element of the chart but not move it around. i can move the title though, so i will keep working on that part. and at some point i may want to manually select colors, any tips on those items are appreciated. on the down side, you just cost dell computers a new laptop sale because i was about to bash the crap out of my machine but no need for that now. i think i a going to start calling you 'slick'.

View attachment 36649

 

[userque]

thank you usercuz! that is almost exactly what i wanted. i can't figure out how to move the 'date' x axis labels down to the bottom yet, i can select it as an element of the chart but not move it around. i can move the title though, so i will keep working on that part. and at some point i may want to manually select colors, any tips on those items are appreciated. on the down side, you just cost dell computers a new laptop sale because i was about to bash the crap out of my machine but no need for that now.

View attachment 36649

No problem.

Lol...I could have sent you the file, after it was perfected. But glad you're making progress.

Here's a link to describe how to move the x-axis to the bottom. You don't say what version of excel you have, but the link should cover it:

How to move chart X axis below negative values/zero/bottom in Excel?

 

[userque]

...and at some point i may want to manually select colors...

Try:

Right-clicking on the chart. Select the element you want to modify. Pick your 'fill' or 'outline' colors.

 

[burrocrat]

No problem.

Lol...I could have sent you the file, after it was perfected. But glad you're making progress.

Here's a link to describe how to move the x-axis to the bottom. You don't say what version of excel you have, but the link should cover it:

How to move chart X axis below negative values/zero/bottom in Excel?

wooo hooo hoooo! position=low, who would've ever thunk it? thanks slick!

View attachment 36650

 

[burrocrat]

Try:

Right-clicking on the chart. Select the element you want to modify. Pick your 'fill' or 'outline' colors.

now i just got to pick the colors of my chart's wardrobe, but of course having trouble with figuring out that too.

burro should be purple because that is for royalty and i am going to be king.
ark should be green because that is money right there.
g-fund should be black because it is never in the red unless you count inflation.

the remaining funds should be colored according to risk:
f-fund light blue
c-fund dark blue
s-fund orange
i-fund red.

i am working on that part later, but i am sure there is a way.

software is msexcel 2013 i think, whatever is the latest cheapest available on home-use-program for $9.95 for active feds.

 

[jpcavin]

i desire a chart that looks something like this...

View attachment 36646

basically along the x axis i want the weekly date starting at beginning of the year 160101 and eventually running through 161231 the end of the year.

also i want the y axis to be 0% in the middle and ranging up or down depending on tsp.gov fund gains.

and for the lines in the chart i want 7 of them: burrocrat, burros-ark, and the 5 main tsp funds g f c s i, each of them in a different color.

and then after that i want a legend that tells you which color is me or the system or the funds what represent.

and also if it is not too much trouble i would like a title for the map that says "burros-ark 2016", but i am seriously considering changing that to "kiss my a** bill gates and all your minions can s*** my spreadsheet d***!".

i have put the crescent wrench away now and am feeling a bit calmer so i will just trust the expertise on this board and be patient and wait...

thanks.

Did anyone else notice that he actually capitalizes in real life? I'll have to add this to my growing list of donkey behavioral characteristics. :laugh:

 

[ravensfan]

Did anyone else notice that he actually capitalizes in real life? I'll have to add this to my growing list of donkey behavioral characteristics. :laugh:

What's wrong with that? I do the same thing. Sick minds think alike!!!