burrocrat's Account Talk

[burrocrat]

Burro, the market has basically skyrocketed since the 2008 crash. It's hard to beat a market that is that hot. The real question is how well you do when the market is not -- like in 2008. I noticed you left that one off the charts. That one would be the real teller because losses hurt you more than gains help. That leaves us with 2011 & 2015 as the not-so-hot years. You underperformed the market in 2011 but more than made up for that this year. I'd take that.

As for your numbers, it looks like you just computed a simple average. If you compute an annualized return the numbers are a little different but still not bad. I've included that output below together with my returns to show you how well you are doing:
[TABLE="width: 300"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]C Fund[/TD]
[TD]Burro[/TD]
[TD]Cactus[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2015[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.27%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9.27%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9.66%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2014[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13.78%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10.47%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"](7.39%)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2013[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]32.45%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.06%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17.29%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16.97%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16.36%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.75%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2011[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.11%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"](3.12%)[/TD]
[TD="align: right"](2.9%)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3 year[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15.51%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8.24%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5 year[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12.81%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.41%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.51%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

ok i read the link to the explanations of cagr and understand the 'why', but still not the 'how'. can you tell me exactly the syntax of the formulas in cells C7 and C8? (burro 3 year and burro 5 year formulas). i am missing something from the examples about PV and FV i think, what are those values?

 

[burrocrat]

oh no, i'm not sure i even want to say this... but i checked tsp.gov website and got my PIP for the early years in tsp. since mid-2009 the autotracker has reflected my actual trades in tsp except for a couple of very rare occasions when my trade didn't go through or i forgot, and i then corrected the position right away. also those returns cannot be independently verified as real-time which is one of the true values of the autotracker, anybody can make great gains after the fact with 20/20 vision. for me at least, the autotracker is no fun if not playing with my real money, kind of like playing strip poker with your mom and nobody actually takes any clothes off, pointless. also as i have stated before, i don't think the tsp.gov reported PIP accurately takes into account increased contributions or loans that may affect the balances.

in any event, this is the most accurate information i can add to my tsp investing history, the whole story:

2007: +4.57%
2008: -37.02% (ouch)
2009: +20.72% (autotracker is only partial year performance since july when i joined that year).

i don't really count these early years before tsptalk because i was not really doing anything deliberate with any coherence to try to build my balance through trading, just was dumping money in and running scared and uninformed. but it is what it is. that is what i got those years. this is bad i know without doing any math because from cacti's tutorial early losses are difficult to make up. but on the bright side, even right on the edge of the cliff, the year the financial world came closest to armageddon since the 1929 great depression, i only lost about 1/3 of my tsp, and even then only temporarily because in the next few years it all came right back. of course now a cup of coffee costs $5 instead of $2.50 but who's counting besides the fed? life is a marathon, not a sprint.

 

[Cactus]

ok i read the link to the explanations of cagr and understand the 'why', but still not the 'how'. can you tell me exactly the syntax of the formulas in cells C7 and C8? (burro 3 year and burro 5 year formulas). i am missing something from the examples about PV and FV i think, what are those values?

Sorry for the confussion, Burro. The formulas for cells C7 and C8 would be:

C7 = burro 3 year = RRI(COUNT(C2:C4), 1, FVSCHEDULE(1, C2:C4))
C8 = burro 5 year = RRI(COUNT(C2:C6), 1, FVSCHEDULE(1, C2:C6))

or if your spreadsheet doesn't have the RRI function you can use the RATE function like this:

= RATE(COUNT(C2:C4), 0, -1, FVSCHEDULE(1, C2:C4))
= RATE(COUNT(C2:C6), 0, -1, FVSCHEDULE(1, C2:C6))

You could just substitute the actual number of years (3 and 5) for the COUNT function part of the equation. I use it as a cross check to make sure I have the correct range for FV.

Yes, PV (Present Value) and FV (Future Value) are confusing here because they represent actual dollar amounts but here we are only dealling with percentage gains/losses. These examples use the dummy value 1 for the PV and in calculating the FV with the FVSCHEDULE function. It can be any value as long as they match because the percentage gain/loss will be the same.

 

[burrocrat]

thanks cactus, that did the trick. my software does have the rri function but i couldn't get the count function to work inside of it so just used the appropriate number for the years there. now that i understand how cagr works, i agree that it is a better measure for tracking actual performance over time. but i still think the straight average has good value as in 'this is what i can expect in any given year' for goal setting or progress tracking through the year etc.

that being said, i see that in all cases cagr goes down because of the making up past losses with a reduced balance thing i guess is how you say that. very interesting. i ran the final 2015 numbers and here is what i came up with. also i see that your layout is much more efficient and gives the same data without so many dead/irrelevant cells, it is cool to see how different people arrive at similar solutions. i am going to change mine around to match yours more, but first here is what i found out. (anyone feel free to check my math, i am ok with admitting mistakes, had a lot of practice at it).

View attachment 36487

so the returns are not as good with cagr, but still within reason and i'm still happy with them. but it is clear the market beats me almost every time, except for a small win in 2012 and then a good win this last year in 2015. i will probably never be able to beat market cagr over any long term same time period because of my major fail in 2013, what was i thinking? generally over time my performance vs. the market seems to be improving i think.

also the partial year in 2009 is an issue, what to do about that? partial years are not legitimate for prizes but i do have a record of 3 and 5 full year data so that is normal time periods for measuring stuff. and i think it is relevant to include 2009 in the lifetime average because that is when it started and what happened here on tsptalk when i actively began to try to grow my account on purpose.

my actual tsp.gov full year 2009 was better than partial year, but there is no independently verifiable timely proof of that so i could actually put in any number there and folks would just have to believe me. we all know what happens when people post 'back-trades' with no proof of actual performance so let's not go there. i think this is the numbers i am going to use for the purposes of this forum because it is true and the trades were entered at-the-time and verifiable.

and i am going to redo the spreadsheet later to simplify like cactus did.

 

[Boghie]

burros-ark update: major volatility and swings in the market, if somebody could've timed that just right they would've made a mint. as it turns out most folks regained some lost ground, but there are funny unusual moves going on too. mouse dipped a toe in and continues to rack up small gains with very little risk exposure. chameleon did a quick out and in double move for only god knows why but it may pay off, hell it works all the time in the nfl. hawk and donkey and squirrel all bailed, ran like chickens. with the low trading volume, reduced market days, and year end close out stuff going on, i just couldn't see being in this market and took my gains and clocked out. i'm out of trades for the year and going to let the dust settle a little. overall i have enjoyed the last couple of weeks with the secret santa exchanges and pot lucks and even some unexpected surprises, the year has been kind to me and i am thankful for that.

View attachment 36428

burros-ark signal: sell. although el vira and exposure are at traditionally favorable levels, there were some big moves out and only a little calculated moves in. low volume and high volatility could make things interesting, but i am mostly interested in closing out the year and locking in performance. there will be some changes coming to the burros-ark system which i will detail later, but i think it is best to move the system to g fund and start the year fresh at zero rather than carry old baggage into the new system year. sell.

burros-ark bonus: it is early yet and things could change a little next week, but probably not change a lot so i think it is safe to call some winners and losers. hawk clearly will take top spot with his double digit gains having moved to safety in the g fund, the only person with a decent positive return and any trades left is mouse and she would have to go all in while the market launches on a +8% tear for her to overtake him. so whipsaw is the 2015 ark winner, top dog, and i am offering an ounce of tsptalk silver for the prize, pm me with shipping details whipsaw if you want it (i promise i am not a stalker, other tsper's have got silver mailed to them without getting their credit card hacked or a sexual predator showing up at the door, or else if they did it wasn't because of me). also i am giving away an ounce of tsptalk silver as a booby prize, to blackbird. he showed incredible fortitude in the face of market fear and taught us all some lessons in the process, you got big balls man. but unless he gets out and wolf stays in and the market tanks a -5% drop then ravensfan has the anchor spot locked up, so some silver for you. also there is one more ounce of silver up for grabs, to lion if he wants. he does this great analysis cagr assessment with some commentary humor so if he wishes to provide a year end wrap up i will pay boghie some silver too. all three of you pm me shipping addresses and i will have my personal assistant (me) ship them right out. also i'm thankful for all of you putting up with me, i know it can be unpleasant sometimes having your performance irreverently analyzed and i try to poke just as much fun at my own dumb moves as i do the rest, but it takes a special breed and i am proud of all of you.

happy holidays all, may your season be right, your spirit bright, and best of trading to you in the new year.

Too funny, Burro...

I am already prepping the analysis - and didn't even read this post. So, me not need silver - save it for when I lose it all:nuts:...

But, then again, we will probably both be broke at that point, sitting under a bridge, cuddlin' in cardboard, and talkin' the good times those few moments our minds are not pickled. Question, what booze should we stock up on? And, I'm guessing it might be easier to live on $5/day where you are rather than Kalefornea - but we gotta think all angles. Welfare is great out here!!!

 

[burrocrat]

Too funny, Burro...

I am already prepping the analysis - and didn't even read this post. So, me not need silver - save it for when I lose it all:nuts:...

But, then again, we will probably both be broke at that point, sitting under a bridge, cuddlin' in cardboard, and talkin' the good times those few moments our minds are not pickled. Question, what booze should we stock up on? And, I'm guessing it might be easier to live on $5/day where you are rather than Kalefornea - but we gotta think all angles. Welfare is great out here!!!

too bad, you're getting silver anyways. and please continue with your analysis to sum up the year, i look forward to it.

as to the pickle juice, i am a pretty basic coor's light and cheap vodka type of guy. but if we are broke and sitting under the bridge then i may have to scale back my tastes and start brewing my own out of whatever is available on my budget or from the food banks. in alaska on a dry boat i learned how to make fermented punch from sugar and raisins and berries. i will never do that again (work on a dry boat, the juice was actually pretty good).

 

[burrocrat]

here is my true tsp returns if you include since i started contributing in 2007 (i started permanently with gov in 2006 when i became tsp eligible, but i didn't contribute at first because i was scraping by and didn't think i could afford it and have since changed my evil ways).

but again, nobody but myself, tsp.gov, and god can know for sure my returns for 2007 through full year 2009 so take it as a learning tool and not something i am lying about to puff up my returns. besides, who's to say i didn't really get -57.02% instead of -37.02% or anything else in those years. i know what i did and not afraid to look at it, but not useful in the tsptalk autotracker context.

View attachment 36488

wow! that makes a huge difference. because of 2008 it chops my straight average in half, and my cagr to less than a third! ouch! the only consolation i can take from that is at least my balance was nowhere close to even 5 figures, well under 10k, so i only got robbed for chump change. but holy moly? seriously? that is what a bad year does to lifetime earnings? crazy.

i think the numbers are right, but the burrocrat and market lifetimes are just typed in from another spreadsheet because i could not figure out how to make the fvschedule formula not count the double 2009 or blank columns).

what is the lesson here? sure good average returns are nice, but one devastating drop can kill you future. that is part of the "don't buy and hold" thing then, you must avoid those huge crashes at all costs, and then try to strengthen your positive returns. although both are easier said than done.

looking forward then, what can i reasonably expect? i think in recent years i can be ok assuming that i can nail down about 7% per year, that is realistic. using the rule of 72, i can expect to double my money about every 10 years then. well that sucks because at most i got only two 10-year periods left in my working career to double up. i wish i had figured this out about 30 years ago, but then i never would've had so much fun when i was younger either, a horse apiece then. it is what it is.

the strategy going forward then must be this: 1) avoid huge losses, 2) increase contributions since time is not on my side, and 3) try to predictably get 7% or better if i can increase my trading crystal balling.

hmmm. pass the glue.

 

[Boghie]

That is a good strategy.

By the way, your chart (and mine regretfully) actually informs us all that 'By and Hold' works. The boring chaps who have sat slumbering in the 'C Fund' have beat all but a very small group of ATers. And, some of those ATers seem to have taken a conservative stance lately (see ContrarianJeff).

But, the variance (standard deviation or risk) of the 'C Fund' has been about 21% while yours since 2007 is a little less than 17%. That matters. What also matters is that you seem to have found a system that works for you (at least). Still swinging - which I cannot do - but gaining. You have been marking good returns since you started paying attention. To each their own.

 

[burrocrat]

ok, I got the count f(x) to work inside of the rri f(x), i missed a parenthesis. here is the revised spreadsheet with verifiable lifetime tsptalk numbers.

View attachment 36490

brilliant cactus! thanks for the tips. that is what they call an elegant solution. so simple and efficient and tells the same story without unnecessary window dressing. you are either an engineer or an artist, maybe both.

 

[Lakebound]

So, who is allowed aboard the Ark? Is there an application process? What is the Noah of the Ark looking for in a passenger?

Frank

 

[burrocrat]

So, who is allowed aboard the Ark? Is there an application process? What is the Noah of the Ark looking for in a passenger?

Frank

trades have to be public on autotracker, no premies.

passengers are 'indicator species' who each have their own trading style.

risk is assessed by how far they deviate from preferred allocation.

aggregated they speak to risk appetite, market sentiment, equity allocation, and some other things apparently only my ears can hear.

then it generates a signal on the weekend and trades it on monday if have ift's remaining.

(actually anybody can be a passenger, but only a dirty dozen or so can row and they should have thick skin).

 

[PessOptimist]

Burro, the TSP version of your PIP is available on the yearly statements from 2007-09 which are available on line. Someone on the board figured out how TSP figures it and the percent for later years (10-14) likely won't agree with what you came up with but are all you got for 07-09.

PO

 

[alevin]

here is my true tsp returns if you include since i started contributing in 2007 (i started permanently with gov in 2006 when i became tsp eligible, but i didn't contribute at first because i was scraping by and didn't think i could afford it and have since changed my evil ways).

but again, nobody but myself, tsp.gov, and god can know for sure my returns for 2007 through full year 2009 so take it as a learning tool and not something i am lying about to puff up my returns. besides, who's to say i didn't really get -57.02% instead of -37.02% or anything else in those years. i know what i did and not afraid to look at it, but not useful in the tsptalk autotracker context.

View attachment 36488

wow! that makes a huge difference. because of 2008 it chops my straight average in half, and my cagr to less than a third! ouch! the only consolation i can take from that is at least my balance was nowhere close to even 5 figures, well under 10k, so i only got robbed for chump change. but holy moly? seriously? that is what a bad year does to lifetime earnings? crazy.

what is the lesson here? sure good average returns are nice, but one devastating drop can kill you future. that is part of the "don't buy and hold" thing then, you must avoid those huge crashes at all costs, and then try to strengthen your positive returns. although both are easier said than done.

looking forward then, what can i reasonably expect? i think in recent years i can be ok assuming that i can nail down about 7% per year, that is realistic. using the rule of 72, i can expect to double my money about every 10 years then. i wish i had figured this out about 30 years ago,...

the strategy going forward then must be this: 1) avoid huge losses, 2) increase contributions since time is not on my side, and 3) try to predictably get 7% or better if i can increase my trading crystal balling.

hmmm. pass the glue.

Glue passed, burro. I got hit back in 2000-2003, just when I'd reached 6 figures for first time, had bought and drunk the buy and hold coolaid finally, paid no attention to the market, didn't even have real internet connection for a few years, the old house I'd just bought had no grounded outlets, had to wait til had savings enough to afford electrician to come in, make things safe for computer in at least one room. I lost about 25% of that first 6 figures in the 2000-03 daze, got back to even by 06, have been determined can't afford to sit through another big drop, especially with less than 10 years to go (as of 07). But among the many lessons I've slowly learned since 07-09, is that I needed to learn when to get back in. Here's hoping I recognize that the next time, assuming I miss most of the next big drop as I did the 07-09 one. that learning curve has been slow, too slow, which is why I've been pitching everything but the kitchen sink into savings last few years as well. Of course I also paid off my house with accelerated principal between 02-08 also, which meant I missed out on having those funds go into tsp in those years, but it gave me a paid off house when my job was at risk and I couldn't afford to move anywhere else because housing prices were too high anywhere I might have been interested in moving for a new job.

 

[Boghie]

Eee gads, my work wasn't saved. Or maybe I offended the Donkey. Hard to do. But I got me a copy.

Ok denizens of Arkham. You asked for it, you goin' to get it. Burro and Hawk are buyin'

[table="width: 95%"]
[tr]
[td]Style[/td]
[td]Species[/td]
[td]Current
Allocation[/td]
[td]Current Allocation
CAGR/Risk[/td]
[td]2008-2015 Avg AT
CAGR/Risk[/td]
[td]2008[/td]
[td]2009[/td]
[td]2010[/td]
[td]2011[/td]
[td]2012[/td]
[td]2013[/td]
[td]2014[/td]
[td]2015[/td]
[td]2016[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Burka[/td]
[td]L Income[/td]
[td]74/6/12/3/5[/td]
[td]6.56% / 4.52%[/td]
[td]3.52% / 4.18%[/td]
[td]-5.09%[/td]
[td]8.57%[/td]
[td]5.65%[/td]
[td]2.23%[/td]
[td]4.77%[/td]
[td]6.97%[/td]
[td]3.77%[/td]
[td]1.85%[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][/td]
[td]Donkey[/td]
[td]100/0/0/0/0[/td]
[td]5.04% / 3.43%[/td]
[td]7.74% / 6.52%[/td]
[td]N/A[/td]
[td]16.14%[/td]
[td]9.55%[/td]
[td]-3.12%[/td]
[td]16.36%[/td]
[td]5.06%[/td]
[td]10.47%[/td]
[td]9.31%[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][/td]
[td]Mouse[/td]
[td]100/0/0/0/0[/td]
[td]5.04% / 3.43%[/td]
[td]1.83% / 1.83%[/td]
[td]-1.18%[/td]
[td]2.93%[/td]
[td]1.05%[/td]
[td]2.49%[/td]
[td]1.47%[/td]
[td]2.18%[/td]
[td]0.72%[/td]
[td]5.10%[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][/td]
[td]Squirrel[/td]
[td]100/0/0/0/0[/td]
[td]5.04% / 3.43%[/td]
[td]6.30% / 5.01%[/td]
[td]N/A[/td]
[td]8.56%[/td]
[td]6.66%[/td]
[td]2.28%[/td]
[td]3.37%[/td]
[td]15.10%[/td]
[td]8.90%[/td]
[td]2.21%[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][/td]
[td]Hawk[/td]
[td]100/0/0/0/0[/td]
[td]5.04% / 3.43%[/td]
[td]7.27% / 8.69%[/td]
[td]N/A[/td]
[td]N/A[/td]
[td]N/A[/td]
[td]N/A[/td]
[td]N/A[/td]
[td]N/A[/td]
[td]1.48%[/td]
[td]13.77%[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Modest[/td]
[td]L-2020[/td]
[td]44/6/27/8/15[/td]
[td]8.37% / 9.05%[/td]
[td]5.49% / 7.93%[/td]
[td]-10.53%[/td]
[td]10.03%[/td]
[td]5.74%[/td]
[td]0.41%[/td]
[td]10.42%[/td]
[td]16.03%[/td]
[td]5.06%[/td]
[td]1.35%[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Bikini[/td]
[td]L-2030[/td]
[td]29/6/34/12/19[/td]
[td]9.23% / 11.75%[/td]
[td]6.69% / 13.67%[/td]
[td]-22.77%[/td]
[td]19.14%[/td]
[td]10.59%[/td]
[td]-0.31%[/td]
[td]12.61%[/td]
[td]20.16%[/td]
[td]5.74%[/td]
[td]1.04%[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Brazillian[/td]
[td]L-2040[/td]
[td]19/6/38/16/21[/td]
[td]9.76% / 13.34%[/td]
[td]7.45% / 16.23%[/td]
[td]-27.50%[/td]
[td]22.48%[/td]
[td]12.48%[/td]
[td]-0.96%[/td]
[td]14.27%[/td]
[td]23.23%[/td]
[td]6.22%[/td]
[td]0.73%[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][/td]
[td]Lion[/td]
[td]17/8/34/26/15[/td]
[td]10.08% / 13.57%[/td]
[td]7.83% / 12.01%[/td]
[td]-11.59%[/td]
[td]29.16%[/td]
[td]13.06%[/td]
[td]-2.70%[/td]
[td]14.26%[/td]
[td]16.79%[/td]
[td]6.73%[/td]
[td]2.59%[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Thong[/td]
[td]L-2050[/td]
[td]10/5/42/18/25[/td]
[td]10.20% / 15.08%[/td]
[td]7.84% / 18.65%[/td]
[td]-31.53[/td]
[td]25.19%[/td]
[td]13.89%[/td]
[td]-3.81%[/td]
[td]15.85%[/td]
[td]26.20%[/td]
[td]6.37%[/td]
[td]0.45%[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][/td]
[td]Owl[/td]
[td]0/0/100/0/0[/td]
[td]10.29% / 17.75%[/td]
[td]0.92% / 10.14%[/td]
[td]N/A[/td]
[td]N/A[/td]
[td]-14.11%[/td]
[td]-2.94%[/td]
[td]6.71%[/td]
[td]16.40%[/td]
[td]2.04%[/td]
[td]0.47%[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][/td]
[td]Chameleon[/td]
[td]0/0/100/0/0[/td]
[td]10.29% / 17.75%[/td]
[td]3.22% / 4.12%[/td]
[td]N/A[/td]
[td]N/A[/td]
[td]N/A[/td]
[td]N/A[/td]
[td]N/A[/td]
[td]N/A[/td]
[td]6.21%[/td]
[td]0.39%[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][/td]
[td]Kangaroo[/td]
[td]0/0/40/40/20[/td]
[td]11.17% / 18.11%[/td]
[td]5.28% / 3.40%[/td]
[td]N/A[/td]
[td]N/A[/td]
[td]N/A[/td]
[td]N/A[/td]
[td]N/A[/td]
[td]9.14%[/td]
[td]4.23%[/td]
[td]2.62%[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][/td]
[td]Penguin[/td]
[td]0/0/40/40/20[/td]
[td]11.17% / 18.11%[/td]
[td]5.58% / 8.36%[/td]
[td]N/A[/td]
[td]N/A[/td]
[td]N/A[/td]
[td]-2.88%[/td]
[td]12.46%[/td]
[td]3.82%[/td]
[td]16.60%[/td]
[td]-0.45%[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][/td]
[td]Blackbird[/td]
[td]0/0/40/45/15[/td]
[td]11.29% / 18.32%[/td]
[td]-2.76% / 4.11%[/td]
[td]N/A[/td]
[td]N/A[/td]
[td]N/A[/td]
[td]N/A[/td]
[td]N/A[/td]
[td]0.32%[/td]
[td]-0.97%[/td]
[td]-7.36%[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][/td]
[td]Cougar[/td]
[td]0/0/30/45/25[/td]
[td]11.24% / 18.34%[/td]
[td]11.05% / 10.32%[/td]
[td]N/A[/td]
[td]N/A[/td]
[td]N/A[/td]
[td]7.02%[/td]
[td]15.89%[/td]
[td]26.90%[/td]
[td]8.04%[/td]
[td]-0.23%[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][/td]
[td]Wolf[/td]
[td]0/0/0/100/0[/td]
[td]12.19% / 21.91%[/td]
[td]6.24% / 11.85%[/td]
[td]-7.65%[/td]
[td]-3.61[/td]
[td]15.02%[/td]
[td]-4.20%[/td]
[td]18.56%[/td]
[td]23.16%[/td]
[td]2.27%[/td]
[td]-3.37%[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Funds[/td]
[td]G Fund[/td]
[td]100/0/0/0/0[/td]
[td]5.04% / 3.43%[/td]
[td]2.45% / 0.72%[/td]
[td]3.75%[/td]
[td]2.97%[/td]
[td]2.81%[/td]
[td]2.45%[/td]
[td]1.47[/td]
[td]1.89%[/td]
[td]2.31%[/td]
[td]2.05%[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][/td]
[td]F Fund[/td]
[td]0/100/0/0/0[/td]
[td]7.56% / 6.55%[/td]
[td]4.48% / 3.29%[/td]
[td]5.45%[/td]
[td]5.99%[/td]
[td]6.71%[/td]
[td]7.89%[/td]
[td]4.29%[/td]
[td]-1.68%[/td]
[td]6.73%[/td]
[td]0.91%[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][/td]
[td]C Fund[/td]
[td]0/0/100/0/0[/td]
[td]10.29% / 17.75%[/td]
[td]6.68% / 21.30%[/td]
[td]-36.99%[/td]
[td]26.68%[/td]
[td]15.06%[/td]
[td]2.11%[/td]
[td]16.07%[/td]
[td]32.15%[/td]
[td]13.74%[/td]
[td]1.46%[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][/td]
[td]S Fund[/td]
[td]0/0/0/100/0[/td]
[td]12.19% / 21.91%[/td]
[td]7.53% / 25.47%[/td]
[td]-38.32%[/td]
[td]34.85%[/td]
[td]29.06%[/td]
[td]-3.38%[/td]
[td]18.57%[/td]
[td]38.35%[/td]
[td]7.80%[/td]
[td]-2.92%[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td] [/td]
[td]I Fund[/td]
[td]0/0/0/0/100[/td]
[td]9.14% / 22.06%[/td]
[td]-0.30% / 25.47%[/td]
[td]-42.43%[/td]
[td]30.04%[/td]
[td]7.94%[/td]
[td]-11.81%[/td]
[td]18.62%[/td]
[td]22.13%[/td]
[td]-5.27%[/td]
[td]-0.51%[/td]
[td][/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

Well, what does this all mean?

It means this has been a difficult time to invest or speculate. The equity funds have been bouncing - with the S and I just plain ridiculous. I also think it is starting to show that the F is correcting rather rapidly.

What does it say about us Arkers?

It kinda demonstrates that most of us are swingers who spend more time than we should in thongs. There are 'cops' on the beach that measure those things. Nice job if you can get it, yuk, yuk... But, I don't know if they are really cops - that badge looks kinda iffy.

Actually, maybe not. Look at the '2008 - 2015 CAGR/Risk' numbers for the Arkham Ark residents. Do you see sumthin'? It looks like we are all keeping the bear away - our risk is lower than our normal investment category. I know me best - here I am in a speedo again. My retirement date will be around 2030. Super sciencey types have determined that the 'L-2030' is the right fund for me. It has a 2008-2015 CAGR/Risk of 6.69% / 13.67%. Mine is 7.83% / 12.01%. Thus, I am beating my marker (in a very ugly investment era) while holding my risk down. I can only guess at the other denizens, but it appears you all are keeping your risk way below both the L Funds and the individual funds. That is happening even though many of you are swingers. Good job.

However, a word of warning. Only three of us have felt the bite of 2008. There were lots of us tanning in thongs that day. Then mom and dad lumbered out of the car for a nice beach walk. Nice sunny day and what to they see, but their children flashing their backsides for all to see. Each one broke a stone tablet inscribed with 'Thou shalt nots' all over it. Yowser. Most of us spent at least the next few years recovering from the welts and bruises - this was before the spanking police were formed. Mom will never catch me in a thong again (I had a burka on in 2008, but a speedo for 2001:embarrest: so I know how it feels). I beg all you youths, have some decency or move real fast when the monsters are in town.

 

[burrocrat]

thanks lion, i always look forward to your analysis and commentary. pm me address for your silver. (ps: i have not shipped hawk and blackbird's silver yet either, but it is on my list).

 

[burrocrat]

burros-ark update: well the final numbers for the year are in and some very interesting things happened. for the week, nobody moved at all and the market took a dive in the last few minutes before the close so the new year is going to start with some fear and uncertainty for sure. congratulations to hawk for an awesome steady performance and avoiding multiple pitfalls. congratulations to mouse for what is probably her best personal performance in a decade while all the while carefully limiting risk, you can do it. and of course congratulations to blackbird for hanging tough and letting us all learn from his experiences, here's to a more profitable 2016. i would pat myself on the back too, but i do that all the time anyways and i'm not sure how you guys feel about it but quite frankly it's getting a little old and my arm is tired.

View attachment 36491

burros-ark signal: hold. whatever you got is what you got, and that is how it will begin again i guess, there is no good reason or indications to move. so hold. there is a lot of mainstream predictions calling for a tough year ahead, so that almost certainly means there is big positive money to be made but it may require a tough stomach and a little 'ahh, to hell with it' patience. good luck and happy trading to all. hold.

View attachment 36492

bonus stuff: an average of all 5 tsp funds got 0.20% while arkers averaged 2.09%, good job. on the other hand, the average of all arkers basically tied the g-fund, tough year. also 50% of arkers beat the g-, f-, and c-funds, and 83% beat the s- and i-funds, great job in a tough unpredictable year with some big selloffs. el vira risk is pretty neutral starting the new year and exposure at a calm normal level so this is as good a place to start as any i guess.

 

[burrocrat]

burros-ark housekeeping (1): note, i welcome any and all feedback or suggestions as to how the ark is composed, acts, or has performed, introspection is a good thing, beside i've always enjoyed studying my navel.

so i should probably define the system again so anybody watching can find the rules and what it tries to do. i should warn you that i am not very good at following rules though. also this may vary from what it was last year when i started it, but that was then and this is now, things change, get used to it. i am not going to search back and confirm, this is what it is.

burros-ark is an 'ecosystem' made up of about a dozen 'indicator species' who have various ways of approaching the market and life. i watch them to get a sense of how the world is turning and use that to inform tsp trades, keep my thumb on the pulse if you will, but if you ever find yourself with my thumb on your pulse chances are good we are both in deep crap.

life, the markets, psychology, and lots of other stuff are easily correlated to animal behavior, which is similar to human behavior but more visceral, more 'feel'. we all have certain instincts and inclinations, our own true natures. i believe the market is as much an exercise in social science as it is technical or financial wizardry.

the current members of the burros-ark system are:

alevin : mouse
bmnevue: penguin
boghie : lion
burrocrat : donkey
jonfresno : kangaroo
jpcavin : cougar
jth : wolf
mrbowl : owl
pessoptimist : squirrel
ravensfan : blackbird
userque : chameleon
whipsaw : hawk

that is 12 members but i prefer odd numbers for tie-breaking quorum stuff. anyways there are others i watch too but not officially, and i have considered bringing some on and kicking some off, that happens from time to time. but for now that is the dirty dozen.

 

[burrocrat]

burros-ark housekeeping (2):

el vira is in my best spanish an acronym for 'the volatility indicator risk assessment' which seeks to feel how far outside their natural comfort zone or how quick they moved to get there given any arker's current position is compared to neutral. it also decays over time as after sitting in a bed of roses or pile of crap you soon enough get used to roses and crap and start to think it is normal.

and i always had a crush on el vira so i wanted to pay her some respect. also i had a crush on my mom which probably explains why i like boobs so much, but this is definitely not the proper venue to discuss that. vira is each individual's position on the risk spectrum. el vira is the group aggregate.

an el vira of about 12% is a good positive have-faith-in-the-market reading. anything outside a close range requires some thinking.

 

[burrocrat]

burros-ark housekeeping (3):

exposure is basically allocation, how much percentage in equities. 60/40 is a standard investment metric and that is also neutral for the ark. each member is in or out so much and the total divided by number of members equals average ark exposure.

i like saying the word exposure. i also used to like exposing, but that got me in trouble when i was younger and would violate my probation now so i just say it instead of do it. but my parole officer says skinny dipping is still ok if everybody is an adult and nobody has been drinking too much. mostly though i just follow exposure for ark purposes now.

 

[burrocrat]

burro-ark update (4):

the system is setup to evaluate the week's events over the weekend and generate a signal before Monday which is tradable and will take effect at close of business monday afternoon. there are several reasons for this.

i am only going to put in a couple hours a week into scratching my head about this stuff, the rest will just have to come from gut feel and the weekend is the only time i can dedicate to quantifying it.

trades on mondays only are designed to counteract my tendency to just pull the trigger when i feel like pulling the trigger.

weekly duration of signals and trades is designed to keep me from pulling my trigger too much. hey, it happens sometimes.

this is one of the parts i struggle with about changing the system. all feedback appreciated especially about this part. give the system a chance to get in or out not only on mondays? how many times per month, per quarter, per year? how many executive decisions would still keep it a system and not on my whim?

i was thinking of changing this part and adding possible free trade days not on mondays within tsp ift limits, but now i think that might destroy the system. it is easier to jump if you know you have a reserve chute, but it affects how and when you jump in the first place.