burrocrat's Account Talk

so i did not see anything about tsp.gov being closed today so i hope my trade is good for the closing price. if i can get out with less than a 1/4% drop today that will lock in +9% on the year and i am damn pleased about that. there was hell. there was high water. i still got my shorts on. winning!

burros-ark i am not so sure, going to have to tally up the week and see where it goes, but there is big thunder out there. it skeers me a little. but i am not going to worry about that until monday.

merry xmas all, we are going to go see star wars for the last showing today, may the force be with you.
 
burros-ark update: major volatility and swings in the market, if somebody could've timed that just right they would've made a mint. as it turns out most folks regained some lost ground, but there are funny unusual moves going on too. mouse dipped a toe in and continues to rack up small gains with very little risk exposure. chameleon did a quick out and in double move for only god knows why but it may pay off, hell it works all the time in the nfl. hawk and donkey and squirrel all bailed, ran like chickens. with the low trading volume, reduced market days, and year end close out stuff going on, i just couldn't see being in this market and took my gains and clocked out. i'm out of trades for the year and going to let the dust settle a little. overall i have enjoyed the last couple of weeks with the secret santa exchanges and pot lucks and even some unexpected surprises, the year has been kind to me and i am thankful for that.

View attachment 36428

burros-ark signal: sell. although el vira and exposure are at traditionally favorable levels, there were some big moves out and only a little calculated moves in. low volume and high volatility could make things interesting, but i am mostly interested in closing out the year and locking in performance. there will be some changes coming to the burros-ark system which i will detail later, but i think it is best to move the system to g fund and start the year fresh at zero rather than carry old baggage into the new system year. sell.

burros-ark bonus: it is early yet and things could change a little next week, but probably not change a lot so i think it is safe to call some winners and losers. hawk clearly will take top spot with his double digit gains having moved to safety in the g fund, the only person with a decent positive return and any trades left is mouse and she would have to go all in while the market launches on a +8% tear for her to overtake him. so whipsaw is the 2015 ark winner, top dog, and i am offering an ounce of tsptalk silver for the prize, pm me with shipping details whipsaw if you want it (i promise i am not a stalker, other tsper's have got silver mailed to them without getting their credit card hacked or a sexual predator showing up at the door, or else if they did it wasn't because of me). also i am giving away an ounce of tsptalk silver as a booby prize, to blackbird. he showed incredible fortitude in the face of market fear and taught us all some lessons in the process, you got big balls man. but unless he gets out and wolf stays in and the market tanks a -5% drop then ravensfan has the anchor spot locked up, so some silver for you. also there is one more ounce of silver up for grabs, to lion if he wants. he does this great analysis cagr assessment with some commentary humor so if he wishes to provide a year end wrap up i will pay boghie some silver too. all three of you pm me shipping addresses and i will have my personal assistant (me) ship them right out. also i'm thankful for all of you putting up with me, i know it can be unpleasant sometimes having your performance irreverently analyzed and i try to poke just as much fun at my own dumb moves as i do the rest, but it takes a special breed and i am proud of all of you.

happy holidays all, may your season be right, your spirit bright, and best of trading to you in the new year.
 
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ok, deep breath donkey, deep breath. i need some help here, i'm looking for any and all feedback, can you help me make sense of this?

are my numbers right? does the math add up correct? does it read well and communicate the story? is this true? do i really suck this bad?

so i was doing some year-end-analysis and i know that we are not done with 2015 yet and as soon as we roll over into 2016 the current returns will not match the 2015 returns, but for now this is what it is and i don't think it will change enough to move the long-term needles. holy crap! i suck at investing!

every year i get my ass kicked by the market! over any given year except this one, three years, five years, and in my entire tsp lifetime, i am constantly and repeatedly getting beat by the market! by about 5 or 6 percent! so why don't i just stick my head in the sand? why do i even bother with this psych out the market time the hot roll thing anyways?

seriously, i am having one of those soul-searching, existence-questioning, can't-find-my-ass-for-a-hole-in-the-ground type moments! does the market really beat me that bad? i was feeling pretty dognam good about my trading skills, until now!

crap. it looks like this is a walkabout, vision quest, find my animal familiar, look hell straight in the teeth type of road i am on. i hate when this happens. fair warning, it might not be pleasant!

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Burro,

I would take those numbers anytime. Look at my returns since I joined TSPTalk...I can't even beat the G Fund. I don't have the stats to back it up, but I retired in 2011 at the age of 55 and it was my goal to add 10K to my TSP by the time I hit 60 and my military retirement kicked in. Shouldn't be to hard...2k per year should be a piece of cake...Well, I turn 60 next month and I have grown my account a little over 3k...Now that sucks!!! So again, I would take your numbers anytime.

So just to show you that I am a glutton for punishment, I'm thinking of remaining invested this week and not following the ark signal. (will I ever learn?) I was encouraged by JTH's charts for week 52 and I like the odds, so I will stick and bail on Thursday...Wish me luck.

P.S. Thanks for the TSPTalk Silver!:D
 
so i did not see anything about tsp.gov being closed today so i hope my trade is good for the closing price. if i can get out with less than a 1/4% drop today that will lock in +9% on the year and i am damn pleased about that. there was hell. there was high water. i still got my shorts on. winning!

burros-ark i am not so sure, going to have to tally up the week and see where it goes, but there is big thunder out there. it skeers me a little. but i am not going to worry about that until monday.

merry xmas all, we are going to go see star wars for the last showing today, may the force be with you.
Nice Burro!! May the force be with all of you as well!
 
Burro, the market has basically skyrocketed since the 2008 crash. It's hard to beat a market that is that hot. The real question is how well you do when the market is not -- like in 2008. I noticed you left that one off the charts. That one would be the real teller because losses hurt you more than gains help. That leaves us with 2011 & 2015 as the not-so-hot years. You underperformed the market in 2011 but more than made up for that this year. I'd take that.

As for your numbers, it looks like you just computed a simple average. If you compute an annualized return the numbers are a little different but still not bad. I've included that output below together with my returns to show you how well you are doing:
[TABLE="width: 300"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]C Fund
[/TD]
[TD]Burro
[/TD]
[TD]Cactus
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2015
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.27%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9.27%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9.66%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2014
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13.78%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10.47%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"](7.39%)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2013
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]32.45%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.06%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17.29%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2012
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16.97%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16.36%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.75%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2011
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.11%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"](3.12%)
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"](2.9%)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3 year
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15.51%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8.24%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5 year
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12.81%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.41%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.51%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
Reads easy Burro. It's always good to reflect on how we do things. Bottom line: Looks like you should just keep doing what you did this year. Getting 9.96% this year is quite an accomplishment. Congrats on that. Give yourself a pat on the back and enjoy a Blue Moon with an orange garnish.:D

FS
 
Burro, the market has basically skyrocketed since the 2008 crash. It's hard to beat a market that is that hot. The real question is how well you do when the market is not -- like in 2008. I noticed you left that one off the charts. That one would be the real teller because losses hurt you more than gains help. That leaves us with 2011 & 2015 as the not-so-hot years. You underperformed the market in 2011 but more than made up for that this year. I'd take that.

As for your numbers, it looks like you just computed a simple average. If you compute an annualized return the numbers are a little different but still not bad. I've included that output below together with my returns to show you how well you are doing:
[TABLE="width: 300"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]C Fund
[/TD]
[TD]Burro
[/TD]
[TD]Cactus
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2015
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.27%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9.27%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9.66%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2014
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13.78%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10.47%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"](7.39%)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2013
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]32.45%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.06%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17.29%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2012
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16.97%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16.36%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.75%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2011
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.11%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"](3.12%)
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"](2.9%)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3 year
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15.51%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8.24%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5 year
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12.81%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.41%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.51%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

nice, thanks, i am not sure about how to do that annualized thing but i believe you, i am a lot better at the gut-feel vs. technical math approach. i didn't really keep track of my tsp closely until when i joined here in 2009, but i suppose from mid-2006 when i started permanent gov service to 2009 there is some data on tsp.gov that might tell that story. pretty sure I got my clock cleaned in 2008 and the numbers i am using are only partial year numbers from the autotracker here for 2009.
 
Hmm...interesting that all the arkers are holding there current positions today in spite of the sell signal.

Guess I'm in good company for those who decided to stay the course!:worried:
 
Hmm...interesting that all the arkers are holding there current positions today in spite of the sell signal.

Guess I'm in good company for those who decided to stay the course!:worried:
Could be, like me, they want to be invested going into 2016 and the IFT limit won't let them skip this potential down week. I'm betting that this week won't lose more than what we made last week.
 
Burro, looks like a good call last week as the market is down today, thank for the added impetus to make the move. Decent numbers you have... I can't remember 2013, I don't think I did as well as you even with the market scoring big that year. I'm trying that 'standing still to move fast' approach, fewer moves to avoid my moniker. You've made many a good call this year!
 
Hmm...interesting that all the arkers are holding there current positions today in spite of the sell signal.

Guess I'm in good company for those who decided to stay the course!:worried:

Be afraid, be very afraid if you're in my company....:cheesy: I'm mainly in because I'm too damned stubborn to eat a small loss. Hoping to get some of it back this week, though today isn't helping much. S fund kinda sucks this year.

I like Burro's approach because he's out more than he's in. I think Cactus did an analysis of the LMBF and alternate LMBF methods that basically shows how they have lower volatility (I think that's the right term.. or is it beta?), and for the most part, Burro avoids the gut-wrenching swings by buying on dips, nabbing 1-2 percent, and like a flash, he's gone, baby, gone.

Might not hit homers, but 8-10% a year is probably better than a lot of people who get paid to do this market stuff.

Congrats! Now onward to 2016. Looking forward to seeing where the ark goes next year.
 
Jonfresno,

You hit the nail on the head with your comment about burro not hitting homers. I just checked the premium service returns which is posted through 11/30/2015 and burro would rank second, with only Intrepid Timer beating him in 2015.

With that said, burro is truly one of a kind. He lifts all boats higher and asks nothing in return. I look forward to 2016 and I am happy to be counted as an arker.

So thanks burro!!! Thanks for your wisdom, your humor and for creating the ark. You are definitely one of a kind and I for one appreciate all you do!!! :D:D:D
 
Hello, im new to all this, can you tell me what the LMBF is, thankyou

There are two threads on the forum, LMBF (Last Month Best Fund) and the alternate LMBF. Basically it is a "system" where you transfer into the fund that did the best for the previous month. Say the G fund did the best in December, you would go into that fund in January. If C fund did the best in December, you transfer to C fund for January.

The alternate LMBF thread postes variances on that theme.

Hope these links work:

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/longer-term-strategies/15018-alternate-lmbf-methods.html

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/longer-term-strategies/5752-last-months-best-fund-method-strategy-25.html
 
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aawww shucks, you all are too kind.


in regards to the comments about not hitting homers... well that is dang unfortunate because every trade i make i'm swinging for the fence, but you git what you git and you don't throw a fit. i'm ok with a base hit now and again, and there's nothing wrong with taking a walk either.


while it is true that my personal trading style only has me in the market for small periods of time and this may seem like a way to reduce time exposure (risk) in the market, keep in mind that i deliberately target only what i think are the most highly volatile situations. i may not be in often, but when i am i want it to be a whopper, so my personal trades carry high risk i would guess but i'm not sure how to quantify that. i try to buy in on the kind of days when grandmas are peeing their pants wondering how are they going to afford to eat if the world ends, and i try to sell as soon as everyone is smiling again and busy putting lipstick on their pigs. this can work out great if you are correct on your guess, but when you get it wrong it hurts really bad, as evidenced by my -2% haircut on the first day of my december buyin and a sell in November that was 1 day too early and missed a +1.5% barnburner on the exit. i would not recommend this strategery to anybody, but i do post my moves for others to see and maybe learn or have fun with. i basically figure that however how warm and comfortable and long life may turn out to be, no matter how you go in that final fleeting instant we all are going to die cold and alone, so what have i got to lose? besides i don't think the other side is all that scarey as folks seem to think it is (but i'm not ready to find out just yet please lord).


the burros-ark system was created as a way to mitigate some of my risk-taking tendencies and slow down trades to predictable days (only mondays) and predictable periods (1-week increments). also it takes into account what some bell-weather indicators are doing and sometimes moves when i absolutely don't want it to. it seems to have done ok and surprisingly mine and the systems results are not too far apart although they followed different paths. i find that interesting but have no idea why, more than one way to skin a cat i guess.


thanks again for all the kind words and putting up with my ramblings.
 
Hmm...interesting that all the arkers are holding there current positions today in spite of the sell signal.

Guess I'm in good company for those who decided to stay the course!:worried:

Reason I didn't sell: 1-I only have a toe in, doesn't hurt too bad.2-sell signal I'm using (charts I've been posting irregularly-as in when there's a decision point showing up), hadn't gone to sell signal as of Friday. could be my little system will whipsaw me a little this month into next, it did that little dance without me once this fall.
 
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