burrocrat's Account Talk

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I joined the party, I guess I went from bear to bull. Go team! Get the crap really beat out of you today so you can take out on those poor slobs on Monday!

burrocrat said:
ooohh nnooooo, this is not looking good. it appears i was early to the party yesterday and paid a premium to be first in line for the pain. oh well, i'm a market junkie and it had been too long since i got my last fix, i was starting to get all sweaty and shake, i feel a whole lot better now in a sick kind of way. it ain't no fun hangin around the casino if you don't have any chips on the table. so here we go, cocktail!
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well the funny thing, in a sick kind of way, is i dropped -1.94% today and i'm still in the top 50? ha! ain't that rich? brutal.

just yesterday i had a great plan, why didn't i follow it? saw a shot to grab some money i guess. crap. crappity crap crap freakin crap.

i am riding this thing down the toilet all the way to the storm main and out to the freakin ocean if that's what it takes. this too shall pass. eventually.

meanwhile i guess i will just have to get comfortable in my investing world of crap. smells nice, kinda of rotten sweet, like old corn and peanuts.
 
burrocrat said:
well the funny thing, in a sick kind of way, is i dropped -1.94% today and i'm still in the top 50? ha! ain't that rich? brutal.

just yesterday i had a great plan, why didn't i follow it? saw a shot to grab some money i guess. crap. crappity crap crap freakin crap.

i am riding this thing down the toilet all the way to the storm main and out to the freakin ocean if that's what it takes. this too shall pass. eventually.

meanwhile i guess i will just have to get comfortable in my investing world of crap. smells nice, kinda of rotten sweet, like old corn and peanuts.
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Ha...that's nothing I'm still at #880, just 36 from the bottom...I bet I get to last place before you get into the top 10...:nuts:
If you ain't the lead dog, the view is always the same...Here's looking up your address...
notworthy.gif
 
ravensfan said:
Ha...that's nothing I'm still at #880, just 36 from the bottom...I bet I get to last place before you get into the top 10...:nuts:
If you ain't the lead dog, the view is always the same...Here's looking up your address...:notworthy:
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i'll meet you there then. save a beer for me maybe, i'll probably drink all mine on the way.
 
I'm looking at the chart and it certainly has the look of a possible head and shoulders pattern if you look at it from a 6 months - 9 months graph. If SPX falls to under 1867, the Grinch may well have stolen Xmas BUT if we are still in a Bull market, then I think this thing only pulls back to between 1991-1956 and then we RALLY to 2100-2120. At least that's what I'm hoping for.

All the best to those of us with stickypants.

FS
 
i want to apologize for coming off as cold and bitter last night, i got kicked in the market nuts, hard, and i hate it when that happens because i consider myself something of an oracle, an all knowing always golden magic boy who never screws up and always get the girl, and the pretty ones too not just the wall flowers. so i was understandably a little ticked off. but the problem is you see, i am even colderer and bitterer this morning. so now i am lead boy instead of golden boy, but hey, they both weigh about the same, heavy. and i am going to kick this market's butt if it takes me clear until 2029, because if there's one thing i got for sure, it's plenty of time on my hands. i kind of feel bad for the stupid ignorant market because it has no idea what's coming for it.
 
ok i figured it out, here's the path. got to be a cowboy, that's right, a cowboy, baby. gonna romp the ride and swipe all the money off the felt and grab the girl and bail all the way to the bank. that's the solution, hammer down cowboy.

it's gonna be a little tight pulling this off by the end of the year, at first i was thinking xmas eve, but better give myself a few more days to rack the score. cowboy, hold my beer, i got this, baby.

market done pissed me off. sorry market, but you earned it, just bought yourself a world of burro pain, don't make me come out there.

 
wait! whoa whoa whoa! the transmission got garbled, it was cowgirl not cowboy! whew, glad i caught that in time.

if you fall get back on, i still got this. it's gonna hurt every now and then, cowgirls don't cry, lessons of life show us all in time. the good lord may call everybody home, but he ain't getting my tsp just yet. ride baby ride.

 
burros-ark update: ok then, as my brazillian wax technician used to always say... this might hurt a little bit. when the tide goes out you see who's swimming nekked, and this tide done run. rough tough day at the beach. crazy stuff, should be smooth sailing but no, just a sick roll and a giant sucking sound (that was my money). patience has never been my strong suit so i understand these things sometimes will happen, but i sure could've played that differently. problem is i just don't have that prevent defense coast down the hill for the win strategery in me, it called so i jumped and that is how it goes. the good thing about getting your shorts ripped off is it is all the better to see you my dear, there is no sanctuary in this market. all equity funds are negative, only gov and corporate bonds are holding water and they are about to be in big trouble if yellen folds. only a few arkers are beating the fiat money and most are beating the corporate long paper but that ain't saying much. ouch, timing is everything i guess.

View attachment 36290

View attachment 36291

burros-ark signal: buy. there is no way around it even though i am scared, the system says buy. i would love to executively order a pull on this trade and pretend everything is ok and head to the house with a win, but then that wouldn't really be a system now would it? el vira is at optimum risk level and exposure is only a few percent below decent holding power. two heavies moved in and they usually have the stomach for this crap. got to buy. burros-ark system goes full allin on cob monday. may god help us all.
 
As long as it's not a goatee, b, I'll wear the beard, just hope it doesn't get trimmed if I go in sometime this next week.
 
alevin said:
As long as it's not a goatee, b, I'll wear the beard, just hope it doesn't get trimmed if I go in sometime this next week.
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so many potential comments, i am proud of myself for not saying something stupid or crude, that almost never happens.

since it is nearing year-end when folks generally assess performance, i will comment on that. i think you just picked up a 3 year win. i don't know your account balance or work horizon plans but i have a pretty good rough idea, and i do know your investing style. so i think you just won 3 years, maybe 4.

1) for every year you work and not take a tsp distribution that is 1 more year to draw against it in the future.
2) for every year you work and contribute, you put in another year of money, more or less depending on frugality and catchups, but at least another year to draw later.
3) ~5% gains is another year of free accrued money to draw later, maybe more again depending on your version of wants and needs.

so if you don't do something stupid in the next few weeks, i think you just scored 3 years on the market. good job.

that being said, there is two ways to look at it. any year not retired is guaranteed to get you two on the backside, one for not drawing out and one for contributing in so you could net zero market gains and still be ahead with a double. any year with 4-5% gains gets you another year. anything on top of 5% is gravy, berries and cream, magic mike xxl, or whatever other retirement bliss floats your boat.

so you are playing a narrow window between 2 and 4 years future for every year present, for every 3 years like this you make a decade of comfort or at least reasonable subsistence in the future. not a bad game, not bad odds. nice performance ma'am. winning!
 
speaking of magic mike, i found this article, it deals with a sensitive subject in a rather honest and frank way. yes i do sometimes read the women's magazines, and let me tell you they are crazy. this is nothing like any experience i have ever had in a strip club. but who knows? we make our own fortunes i guess.

Sorry, Ladies: Male Strip Clubs ARE NOTHING LIKE Magic Mike

That is, until you actually go to one and realize the reality is far from the steamy scenes that made you pant your way through the first Magic Mike experience. Here, seven ways that actual male strip clubs are nothing like Channing Tatum's version.
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Hah burro, I wanted to give you a chuckle, sounded like you needed one. Yes, the comment carried a bit of burro risk, but you're well on your way to becoming a gentleman, the risk was calculated and panned out. good job, friend.

Re retirement calcs, the little engine is still pushing hard on the savings side, the age-calcs don't make me comfortable enough to go out when I'd like to, a couple years from now. If I'm careful and the creek don't rise, I could make it over the bar at about 4 years from now. whether the agency can continue to afford me that long is another question entirely. But I'm shortening those odds by starting to go out on fires again after an extended hiatus from that scene. overtime-they still get about half of it back, but some accumulates on my side and it goes into the Roth account.

Still shopping for the retirement mini-farm property, eyeballing a couple, but more questions need to be asked, especially about water and business operations allowed (HOA context), before I borrow any funds from the tsp to plunk down. I've got time, fortunately or unfortunately, unless the parental scene changes dramatically, which could happen. Just need to not lose what cap has been accumulated up til now and keep on track. I do need to take a little more risk to get there faster.
 
how come nobody is moving? hardly anybody is trading anything, there is massive volatility and this is when big scores can happen and nobody wants to take the bait? the market has us all pinned down and just raining fire? everybody scared to make a break for it?

is it just 'punch drunkenness'? go ahead hit me again it don't hurt anymore? is it fear? we are all cowering like kicked dogs when the master comes out with his shovel, hoping it is someone else that gets buried today?

i think the fed raises rates and the market breaths a sigh of relief that sanity might return to monetary policy and the market lights up and takes off. but that is 99% wishful thinking and about 1% bullcrap. maybe more bullcrap but i don't do math well this early. today could be the day the dam breaks, one way or the other.
 
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