As of June 12th. I am now projecting the 2015 return using Julian Days in ratios against Total Days. So, right now we are at 163 Days : 365 Total Days. Also, I am making a major change in the Current Allocation Return/Risk numbers. I am now using the BackTest numbers from 1972. Although Quicken is easier I really don't have confidence anymore with it. The numbers on the Allocation screen did not match the numbers on the Allocation Guide portfolios from Newport Group. I thought it was an inflation adjustment, but now I think it is a different calculation. Thus, I will use the
'BackTest Portfolio Asset Class Allocation' tool that JPCavin pointed me to. It only goes to 1972 at the earliest for each asset class, but I have no idea what the allocation summary in Quicken dates to. What a mess.
Anyway, Denizens of the Ark, after much remodeling of the sheet and combining the two here goes:
[TABLE="class: outer_border"]
[TR]
[TD]Style
[/TD]
[TD]Species
[/TD]
[TD]Current
Allocation
[/TD]
[TD]Allocation
CAGR/Risk
[/TD]
[TD]Lifetime AT
CAGR/Risk
[/TD]
[TD]2008
[/TD]
[TD]2009
[/TD]
[TD]2010
[/TD]
[TD]2011
[/TD]
[TD]2012
[/TD]
[TD]2013
[/TD]
[TD]2014
[/TD]
[TD]Current
2015
[/TD]
[TD]Projected
2015
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Burka
[/TD]
[TD]L Income
[/TD]
[TD]74/6/12/3/5
[/TD]
[TD]6.56% / 4.52%
[/TD]
[TD]3.83% / 4.12%
[/TD]
[TD]-5.09%
[/TD]
[TD]8.57%
[/TD]
[TD]5.65%
[/TD]
[TD]2.23%
[/TD]
[TD]4.77%
[/TD]
[TD]6.97%
[/TD]
[TD]3.77%
[/TD]
[TD]1.63%
[/TD]
[TD]3.65%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Donkey
[/TD]
[TD]100/0/0/0/0
[/TD]
[TD]5.04% / 3.43%
[/TD]
[TD]8.35% / 6.70%
[/TD]
[TD]N/A
[/TD]
[TD]16.14%
[/TD]
[TD]9.55%
[/TD]
[TD]-3.12%
[/TD]
[TD]16.36%
[/TD]
[TD]5.06%
[/TD]
[TD]10.47%
[/TD]
[TD]5.19%
[/TD]
[TD]11.78%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Mouse
[/TD]
[TD]100/0/0/0/0
[/TD]
[TD]5.04% / 3.43%
[/TD]
[TD]2.12% / 2.45%
[/TD]
[TD]-1.18%
[/TD]
[TD]2.93%
[/TD]
[TD]1.05%
[/TD]
[TD]2.49%
[/TD]
[TD]1.47%
[/TD]
[TD]2.18%
[/TD]
[TD]0.72%
[/TD]
[TD]3.19%
[/TD]
[TD]7.30%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Turtle
[/TD]
[TD]100/0/0/0/0
[/TD]
[TD]5.04% / 3.43%
[/TD]
[TD]0.26% / 3.73%
[/TD]
[TD]1.58%
[/TD]
[TD]2.64%
[/TD]
[TD]0.46%
[/TD]
[TD]-6.88%
[/TD]
[TD]1.76%
[/TD]
[TD]0.02%
[/TD]
[TD]2.80%
[/TD]
[TD]1.44%
[/TD]
[TD]3.38%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Modest
[/TD]
[TD]L-2020
[/TD]
[TD]44/6/27/8/15
[/TD]
[TD]8.37% / 9.05%
[/TD]
[TD]5.49% / 7.93%
[/TD]
[TD]-10.53%
[/TD]
[TD]10.03%
[/TD]
[TD]5.74%
[/TD]
[TD]0.41%
[/TD]
[TD]10.42%
[/TD]
[TD]16.03%
[/TD]
[TD]5.06%
[/TD]
[TD]3.07%
[/TD]
[TD]6.87%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Lion
[/TD]
[TD]32/18/26/16/8
[/TD]
[TD]8.91% / 9.34%
[/TD]
[TD]9.40% / 12.33%
[/TD]
[TD]-11.59%
[/TD]
[TD]29.16%
[/TD]
[TD]13.06%
[/TD]
[TD]-2.70%
[/TD]
[TD]14.26%
[/TD]
[TD]16.79%
[/TD]
[TD]6.73%
[/TD]
[TD]4.19%
[/TD]
[TD]8.62%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bikini
[/TD]
[TD]L-2030
[/TD]
[TD]29/6/34/12/19
[/TD]
[TD]9.23% / 11.75%
[/TD]
[TD]6.69% / 13.67%
[/TD]
[TD]-22.77%
[/TD]
[TD]19.14%
[/TD]
[TD]10.59%
[/TD]
[TD]-0.31%
[/TD]
[TD]12.61%
[/TD]
[TD]20.16%
[/TD]
[TD]5.74%
[/TD]
[TD]3.74%
[/TD]
[TD]8.37%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Penguin
[/TD]
[TD]40/0/20/20/20
[/TD]
[TD]8.99% / 10.94%
[/TD]
[TD]7.29% / 7.58%
[/TD]
[TD]N/A
[/TD]
[TD]N/A
[/TD]
[TD]N/A
[/TD]
[TD]-2.88%
[/TD]
[TD]12.46%
[/TD]
[TD]3.82%
[/TD]
[TD]16.60%
[/TD]
[TD]2.90%
[/TD]
[TD]6.47%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Squirrel
[/TD]
[TD]40/0/60/0/0
[/TD]
[TD]8.58% / 10.79%
[/TD]
[TD]6.8% / 4.71%
[/TD]
[TD]N/A
[/TD]
[TD]8.56%
[/TD]
[TD]6.66%
[/TD]
[TD]2.28%
[/TD]
[TD]3.37%
[/TD]
[TD]15.10%
[/TD]
[TD]8.90%
[/TD]
[TD]2.33%
[/TD]
[TD]4.50%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brazillian
[/TD]
[TD]L-2040
[/TD]
[TD]19/6/38/16/21
[/TD]
[TD]9.76% / 13.34%
[/TD]
[TD]7.45% / 16.23%
[/TD]
[TD]-27.50%
[/TD]
[TD]22.48%
[/TD]
[TD]12.48%
[/TD]
[TD]-0.96%
[/TD]
[TD]14.27%
[/TD]
[TD]23.23%
[/TD]
[TD]6.22%
[/TD]
[TD]4.20%
[/TD]
[TD]9.40%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Thong
[/TD]
[TD]L-2050
[/TD]
[TD]10/5/42/18/25
[/TD]
[TD]10.20% / 15.08%
[/TD]
[TD]7.84% / 18.65%
[/TD]
[TD]-31.53
[/TD]
[TD]25.19%
[/TD]
[TD]13.89%
[/TD]
[TD]-3.81%
[/TD]
[TD]15.85%
[/TD]
[TD]26.20%
[/TD]
[TD]6.37%
[/TD]
[TD]4.72%
[/TD]
[TD]10.57%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Racoon
[/TD]
[TD]0/0/33/33/34
[/TD]
[TD]10.93% / 18.05%
[/TD]
[TD]1.60% / 9.83%
[/TD]
[TD]N/A
[/TD]
[TD]N/A
[/TD]
[TD]-2.98%
[/TD]
[TD]-7.35%
[/TD]
[TD]3.35%
[/TD]
[TD]12.13%
[/TD]
[TD]-9.83%
[/TD]
[TD]6.22%
[/TD]
[TD]13.79%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Cougar
[/TD]
[TD]0/0/30/45/25
[/TD]
[TD]11.24% / 18.34%
[/TD]
[TD]13.49% / 8.25%
[/TD]
[TD]N/A
[/TD]
[TD]N/A
[/TD]
[TD]N/A
[/TD]
[TD]7.02%
[/TD]
[TD]15.89%
[/TD]
[TD]26.90%
[/TD]
[TD]8.04%
[/TD]
[TD]4.22%
[/TD]
[TD]9.61%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Hawk
[/TD]
[TD]0/0/0/60/40
[/TD]
[TD]11.38% / 19.39%
[/TD]
[TD]11.87% / 14.69%
[/TD]
[TD]N/A
[/TD]
[TD]N/A
[/TD]
[TD]N/A
[/TD]
[TD]N/A
[/TD]
[TD]N/A
[/TD]
[TD]N/A
[/TD]
[TD]1.48%
[/TD]
[TD]9.23%
[/TD]
[TD]22.26%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Kangaroo
[/TD]
[TD]0/0/0/50/50
[/TD]
[TD]11.09% / 19.29%
[/TD]
[TD]8.82% / 4.44%
[/TD]
[TD]N/A
[/TD]
[TD]N/A
[/TD]
[TD]N/A
[/TD]
[TD]N/A
[/TD]
[TD]N/A
[/TD]
[TD]9.14%
[/TD]
[TD]4.23%
[/TD]
[TD]5.78%
[/TD]
[TD]13.10%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Elephant
[/TD]
[TD]0/0/20/0/80
[/TD]
[TD]9.55% / 20.15%
[/TD]
[TD]7.22% / 22.00%
[/TD]
[TD]-38.53%
[/TD]
[TD]27.78%
[/TD]
[TD]17.24%
[/TD]
[TD]-7.02%
[/TD]
[TD]18.06%
[/TD]
[TD]24.35%
[/TD]
[TD]-0.90%
[/TD]
[TD]7.92%
[/TD]
[TD]16.79%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Wolf
[/TD]
[TD]0/0/0/100/0
[/TD]
[TD]12.19% / 21.91%
[/TD]
[TD]8.15% / 11.02%
[/TD]
[TD]-7.65%
[/TD]
[TD]-3.61
[/TD]
[TD]15.02%
[/TD]
[TD]-4.20%
[/TD]
[TD]18.56%
[/TD]
[TD]23.16%
[/TD]
[TD]2.27%
[/TD]
[TD]1.69%
[/TD]
[TD]5.40%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Owl
[/TD]
[TD]0/0/0/100/0
[/TD]
[TD]12.19% / 21.91%
[/TD]
[TD]4.72% / 12.66%
[/TD]
[TD]N/A
[/TD]
[TD]N/A
[/TD]
[TD]-14.11%
[/TD]
[TD]-2.94%
[/TD]
[TD]6.71%
[/TD]
[TD]16.40%
[/TD]
[TD]2.04%
[/TD]
[TD]8.26%
[/TD]
[TD]20.22%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Funds
[/TD]
[TD]G Fund
[/TD]
[TD]100/0/0/0/0
[/TD]
[TD]5.04% / 3.43%
[/TD]
[TD]2.45% / 0.72%
[/TD]
[TD]3.75%
[/TD]
[TD]2.97%
[/TD]
[TD]2.81%
[/TD]
[TD]2.45%
[/TD]
[TD]1.47
[/TD]
[TD]1.89%
[/TD]
[TD]2.31%
[/TD]
[TD]0.86%
[/TD]
[TD]1.93%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]F Fund
[/TD]
[TD]0/100/0/0/0
[/TD]
[TD]7.56% / 6.55%
[/TD]
[TD]4.37% / 3.52%
[/TD]
[TD]5.45%
[/TD]
[TD]5.99%
[/TD]
[TD]6.71%
[/TD]
[TD]7.89%
[/TD]
[TD]4.29%
[/TD]
[TD]-1.68%
[/TD]
[TD]6.73%
[/TD]
[TD]-0.19%
[/TD]
[TD]-0.43%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]C Fund
[/TD]
[TD]0/0/100/0/0
[/TD]
[TD]10.29% / 17.75%
[/TD]
[TD]9.36% / 21.14%
[/TD]
[TD]-36.99%
[/TD]
[TD]26.68%
[/TD]
[TD]15.06%
[/TD]
[TD]2.11%
[/TD]
[TD]16.07%
[/TD]
[TD]32.15%
[/TD]
[TD]13.74%
[/TD]
[TD]2.71%
[/TD]
[TD]6.07%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]S Fund
[/TD]
[TD]0/0/0/100/0
[/TD]
[TD]12.19% / 21.91%
[/TD]
[TD]12.67% / 24.90%
[/TD]
[TD]-38.32%
[/TD]
[TD]34.85%
[/TD]
[TD]29.06%
[/TD]
[TD]-3.38%
[/TD]
[TD]18.57%
[/TD]
[TD]38.35%
[/TD]
[TD]7.80%
[/TD]
[TD]6.46%
[/TD]
[TD]14.47%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]I Fund
[/TD]
[TD]0/0/0/0/100
[/TD]
[TD]12.19% / 21.91%
[/TD]
[TD]4.98% / 23.89%
[/TD]
[TD]-42.43%
[/TD]
[TD]30.04%
[/TD]
[TD]7.94%
[/TD]
[TD]-11.81%
[/TD]
[TD]18.62%
[/TD]
[TD]22.13%
[/TD]
[TD]-5.27%
[/TD]
[TD]9.21%
[/TD]
[TD]20.62%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
I know this is a bit :laugh: busy, but everything is in one sheet. Now, an interesting thing to present would be a way to see if the denizens are running to safety based on their past history or if they are chasing their prey. My guess is that if folks are running a lower risk than normal (like me) they are hiding a bit in the tall grass. If their risk is higher than their long term average than they are chasing morsels. Don't know how to present that though.
All I can say for certain is that the turtle dragged his head under again. And the Cougar seems to be trying to smooth out the boom and bust cycle before there really is a bust. The wolf is being a wolf. That thang chomps at the hide of anything passing it's way...