2/28/13
The market followed through on Tuesday's rally with another big day, and while the Dow (+175-points), made a new high, the broader indices - S&P 500, Nasdaq, small caps, and Transports - have not done so yet.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 155"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0050%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.06%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+1.30%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+1.30%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+1.13%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
We have been talking about a possible topping process taking place, and despite two big days of gains, the recent rise in volatility, combined with the longer-term overhead resistance, and the the light volume on these big positive days, keeps that theory on the table.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
We mentioned that the bulls won't go away easily and that bull markets don't end overnight. This chart shows how the recent highs, which only lasted above the top of the rising resistance line for one day, could be tough overcome. Another new high could be temporary and drag a few of the weaker bears back into the market, but I will wait for that 3 to 5 day breakout before getting bullish again.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I have shown the chart below several times this year and I could be wrong, but it is very possible that we are seeing a top forming like the one in 2007, which actually did not produce a major drop, but one closer to 7% or 8% from the peak before it bottomed out and started a sideways trading range. I sound like a broken record but this is where I think the traders / market timers will have their day, where the buy and holders had their day during the first two months of the year.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq also followed through with more gains on Wednesday, but like the S&P 500, it is still well off the recent highs.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportations Index, which I accused in yesterday's commentary of not participating in the rally, jumped on board with a nearly 3% gain yesterday. Still, although close, it has not yet made a new high.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The very short-term indicators are now overbought while the short to intermediate-term indicators are closer to neutral.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
The market followed through on Tuesday's rally with another big day, and while the Dow (+175-points), made a new high, the broader indices - S&P 500, Nasdaq, small caps, and Transports - have not done so yet.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 155"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0050%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.06%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+1.30%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+1.30%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+1.13%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
We have been talking about a possible topping process taking place, and despite two big days of gains, the recent rise in volatility, combined with the longer-term overhead resistance, and the the light volume on these big positive days, keeps that theory on the table.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
We mentioned that the bulls won't go away easily and that bull markets don't end overnight. This chart shows how the recent highs, which only lasted above the top of the rising resistance line for one day, could be tough overcome. Another new high could be temporary and drag a few of the weaker bears back into the market, but I will wait for that 3 to 5 day breakout before getting bullish again.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I have shown the chart below several times this year and I could be wrong, but it is very possible that we are seeing a top forming like the one in 2007, which actually did not produce a major drop, but one closer to 7% or 8% from the peak before it bottomed out and started a sideways trading range. I sound like a broken record but this is where I think the traders / market timers will have their day, where the buy and holders had their day during the first two months of the year.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq also followed through with more gains on Wednesday, but like the S&P 500, it is still well off the recent highs.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportations Index, which I accused in yesterday's commentary of not participating in the rally, jumped on board with a nearly 3% gain yesterday. Still, although close, it has not yet made a new high.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The very short-term indicators are now overbought while the short to intermediate-term indicators are closer to neutral.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
