Bull Pen - Fall 2006

[Griffin]

Nnutt/Show-me

Thanks. That was the push that took me from a "diamond in the rough" to being "really nice". Which is ironic, considering I had a complaint lodged against me yesterday for being an SOB.....LOL.

 

[Show-me]

LOL Sticks and stones!:laugh:

Nnutt/Show-me

Thanks. That was the push that took me from a "diamond in the rough" to being "really nice". Which is ironic, considering I had a complaint lodged against me yesterday for being an SOB.....LOL.

 

[Griffin]

Big S
little s

Silly Sammy Slick
sipped six sodas
and got
sick sick sick.

Dr. Seuss

The S-fund (DWCP) is now running completely unbound (at least it seems that way)

It is about 1.7% from May's high (and the high set in 2000) DWCP=610
It is about 3.3% from the top of the channel set by the trend of the last three years. DWCP=620

and (hold onto to your hat)

It is about 8.7% from the top of the channel set by the trend of the 1st half of the year. DWCP=655

Unless the dollar begins some radical decent or something catastropic happens....I can't see backing out of this thing. At the current rate it should make that first goal in about 2 days, the next in 4 days. I am not going to even speculate about it making the full 8.7%

It's too good to be true.....now that's scary....Happy Halloween....it's time to decorate

 

[Griffin]

If last night's comment did not reek of euphoria - here's some more:

but before I go there - Tom, it may be time to post that investor emotional response curve soon.....I forget what the next one is (shock and awe ).

Yesterday the S-fund broke to the upside of an already incredible steep growth channel. If that continues today, I will unofficially redesignate the S-fund as the Borg-fund......."resistance is futile"

My own giddiness at what is occurring is telling me (time for an airborne metaphor) to move to the door and have the jump master check my rig....the golden parachute is packed and ready to go!

Yesterday, I crossed the 18.9% return threshold - that is the point at which your money doubles every four years.

If the Borg fund pushes out another 3.3% that will take me to the sacred land of 22.4% - which is the point at which your investment doubles every four years after incorporating a 3% inflation rate.

While my overall goal is to beat the best performing fund every year, in my dreams I average a 22.4% return.

Now that is an unhealthy dose of euphoria

 

[mlk_man]

Gonna take a hit today though.

 

[Griffin]

Gonna take a hit today though.

I fully expect us to enter some volatility:

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=59728&postcount=196

Like I said, the golden parachute is packed and I'm ready to jump. However, a little red is nothing to fear....yet :nuts: but that could change in heartbeat.

That was the whole point of the euphoria comment.

We saw this all summer, where the day would start off red, only to reverse itself after lunch (and vise versa as well).

I said this before too: it is virtually impossible to time in this growth environment....I will not even attempt to play the onsie's/twosie's....it's either "all in" or CP.

 

[Griffin]

The nice thing about today's quick rundown is that we will actually have time to see if support holds and hopefully make a good decision today!

 

[Pilgrim]

Unfortunately, all eyes are now on tomorrows CPI numbers to confirm or refute the implied trend in inflation. We decide today about tomorrow, but we won't have a clue about what will happen.

 

[Griffin]

Volume on the NYSE last wednesday was relatively high, we crossed the .5 million share mark at 10:20 am. yesterday was relatively light, and the .5 million share mark was not crossed until 10:30. So far it's looking like it's on the heavy side.

So whatever the market is going to do, it's doing it with conviction.

Already, the communist media's attempt to sabotage the market this morning looks to be failing as investor's move in for the opportunity.

(in case you haven't noticed, I'm on a media bashing streak......I always get this way around election time....It's one thing to lie.....it's another to promote those lies.)

 

[Griffin]

Bit scary, but were still in the channel.

 

[Pilgrim]

Bit scary, but were still in the channel.

What number would unambigously show a breakdown from the channel?

 

[Griffin]

What number would unambigously show a breakdown from the channel?

I'd say: 593 for the DWCP (S-fund) and 1357 for the S&P (C-fund) - most people set there automatic alerting and buying around round numbers in increments of 5 or 10, so when your looking for a definitive breakdown or breakout, you want to get outside of those numbers (in this case, slightly below).

I will bail if it really starts to look like we are approaching these numbers.

 

[weatherweenie]

We're at 1357 on the sp500, 589 on DWCPF.

 

[Pilgrim]

We're at 1357 on the sp500, 589 on DWCPF.

Gotta be careful! DWCP is at 595.3 while DWCPF is at 589.62.

 

[weatherweenie]

Thought the S follows the DWCPF?

 

[mlk_man]

Thought the S follows the DWCPF?

That is correct.

 

[Pilgrim]

Thought the S follows the DWCPF?

So Griffin assures us, but above he quoted a stop value on DWCP. I don't know which one to watch.

 

[Griffin]

The S&P has me worried, but I am going to hold.

 

[Griffin]

So Griffin assures us, but above he quoted a stop value on DWCP. I don't know which one to watch.

The DWCP and DWCPF are almost identical, I use the DWCP because the DWCPF data is not available for Bigcharts.com which is my favorite charting site.

But do NOT use DWCPF numbers for the DWCP - they are different by a couple of points

....for charting purposes, the DWCP is just as good as the DWCPF.

 

[Pilgrim]

The DWCP and DWCPF are almost identical, I use the DWCP because the DWCPF data is not available for Bigcharts.com which is my favorite charting site.

They are almost 6 points apart right now. The question is which did you mean above when you talked about breaking below its channel?