Boghies Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
Re: Oh, The Humanity!!!

It really hits home when they move back in with Mom and Dad and get placed on a curfew. Don't vote for a bumper sticker next time....
 
Re: Folks, The Pens are Warming Up...

Oh, BT, I love it.
I also love this:The Young Voters, taught to think that spending Other People’s Money is cool, have not yet realized that those Other People will be them.
 
Not Good...

I have been listening to the Ric Edelman financial radio show for years. I have read numerous books by him. I think that is obvious.

For the very first time he is recommending the sale of assets for tax reasons. Not good. Really not good. When taxageddon (to include the tax increases resulting from ObamaCare) affects the advice of an adviser such as Edelman (who is an advocate of Modern Portfolio Theory) than we are in a bad place. I think our Black Swan President has taken flight:worried:.

Yowser...

:sick:
 
Re: Not Good...

There are 21 hidden taxes in Obamacare and they will all be flushed down the toilet by new leadership. I would not sell any assets unless forced to by conditions - I only sell equities when looking down the barrel of a margin call - which I recently had to do. But I have since reinvested the majority the money back into the market. BHO is going to fade into history soon enough. The stock market is going to stampede into the election because it knows better economic times await for America. The commie is going to get blowed out like nothing before.
 
Buying in a bit...

Migrating 20% of my allocation into equities...
Still holding 40% out of the market...
Should have been in for June...

Anyway, got to be in to win:
  • G: 20% - The 'G Fund' does nothing for growth
  • F: 20% - This should be correcting
  • C: 35% - Earnings next week.
  • S: 15% - Increased taxation will do these guys wonders:nuts:
  • I: 10% - Who cares about the PIIGS.
Basically, the market isn't collapsing today on another Obummer economic stat. Seems to have based. I think the private sector is holding assets till The Black Swan President is dethroned. Don't want to make huge moves, so now is the time to start getting in...
 
Greed Overcome!!!

Almost pulled the trigger...

But, I always pull the trigger in early August - and I always lose money in early August. Nope, that 20% in G and about 6% from F will start moving into equities a bit later. I don't want my brain to get in the way of my earnings. Stuck to my guns in migrating out a bit for the summer, better to stick to them on migrating back in. I'll just work the fields for a couple of weeks.

It was so close...
 
Boghie's Default Allocations...

Being Old and Slow, and since I keep having to find and reference my own allocation models, here they are for my own viewing:

Aggressive: 2% G, 15% F, 48% C, 19% S, 16% I Expected Return: 6%, Expected Variance: 9%
Normal: 12% G, 22% F, 39% C, 15% S, 12% I Expected Return: 5%, Expected Variance: 8%
Conservative: 12% G, 27% F, 37% C, 13% S, 11% I Expected Return: 5%, Expected Variance: 7%
​

The expected return is inflation adjusted and is generated via Quicken's Allocation model. I consider G to be cash, the F to be domestic bonds, the C to be large cap, the S to be small cap, the I to be international. Out of these mappings the most incorrect is probably the S fund; our S Fund contains all domestic stocks not in the S&P 500. Thus, the S Fund contains mid cap equities as well and thus most likely has a smaller expected return and a smaller variance.

Just for Info:

G: Return: 0%, Variance 0%
F: Return: 3%, Variance 5%
C: Return: 7%, Variance 16%
S: Return: 8%, Variance 20%
I: Return: 8%, Variance 18%
​

These numbers can change on each Quicken update. Nice return for cash, eh...:laugh:
 
Federal Revenue/Spending and Deficits...

No Comment...

20120810_FederalDeficitChart.JPG

Hope we can Change the theme of the election back to the economy and the bloat of the Federal government...
 
A Message From the 3rd World Country of Kaleforea...

A message to all TSPers...

The power companies are not admitting it, but the pattern is reminiscent of the Governor Dufus era of rolling blackouts.

  1. A population center in the city loses power
  2. Then, power is lost in a rolling fashion in less populated areas.

Oh, well. Shall I believe them when they tell me that all these areas are having 'above ground power supply problems'. Or, maybe, it is the fact that San Onofre is out one power generator. Can't be having all that nuke generation out there, can we...
 
Re: A Message From the 3rd World Country of Kaleforea...

maybe that wouldn't happen if they paid their bills.

and thanks boghie, now my pop up ads are back to wise dehydrated emergency foods again instead of ashley who likes old guys and only is 2.5 miles away from me. anybody else live within 2.5 miles of ashley? either we are neighbors or that gal gets around.
 
A Message From the 3rd World Country of Kaleforea...

nnuut said:
Cross your circuits!:cool:
California passes power grid test, for now; Mon heat looms
SAN FRANCISCO | Sat Aug 11, 2012 3:49am IST
California passes power grid test, for now; Mon heat looms | Reuters
Click to expand...

Nnuut,

In Kalefornea you can get a 'social' pass. Everybody around here gets an 'A' - even if you are not taking classes. I'm claiming 14 A's this simester (yuk, yuk). So, is it unbelievable that our Summer Socialists Gubmint Managed Power Grid Distributors get a passing grade when there are a large number of power outages throughout the sate? Nah, just a way of life:nuts:.

And, Burro, I keep getting introduced to Ashley - and when I reload the page a very similar beauty named Jasmine is beseeching me, and then comes Summer. Ooo laaa laaa...
 
Re: A Message From the 3rd World Country of Kaleforea...

I always seem to get burned in August. I'm always too early in to be a market timer. But, since I have a pattern I will stick with it:p:
  • G: 10% - The 'G Fund' does nothing for growth. I'm earning less than $2 a day on this pig
  • F: 18% - This should be correcting - and it might be.
  • C: 42% - There seems to be migration from F to this.
  • S: 17% - Increased taxation will do these guys wonders
  • I: 13% - Who cares about these PIIGS - ContrarianJeff is in it!!!
Expected Return: 6%
Expected Risk (Variance): 8%

The above are inflation adjusted by 3%.
Thus, annual return of between -2% through +14%
 
August, September, and October are Ugly. Too Much Politics is being added int

Gotta move a bit more to safety. Too much politics, too much uncertainty, and the market needs a little bit of correction anyway:
  • G: 12% - The 'G Fund' does nothing for growth. This change should earn me a nickle more a day!!!
  • F: 27% - This should be correcting - and it might be, then again it might not be.
  • C: 37% - There seems to be migration from F to this.
  • S: 13% - Increased taxation will do these guys wonders
  • I: 11% - Black Swan PIIGS are in the air - ContrarianJeff is out!!!
Expected Return: 5%
Expected Risk (Variance): 7%

The above are inflation adjusted by 3%.
Thus, annual return of between -2% through +12%
 
Re: August, September, and October are Ugly. Too Much Politics is being added int

Don't like the movement of the 'F Fund' today.

I think folks no longer care about Helicopter Ben. And, we know that spending will not be cut till interest rates jump. Then, spending will be cut. And quick...
 
Re: August, September, and October are Ugly. Too Much Politics is being added int

Too many black swans are taking flight for me to be in my normal conservative allocation.

  • G: 27% - Looking a Capital Preservation
  • F: 27% - Looking at Flight to Safety
  • C: 25% -
  • S: 13% --- Because I'm not Amoeba and do not pretend to know
  • I: 8% -

Expected Annual Return: 4%
Expected Annual Risk: 5%

Took 3% risk deviation off the table for a reduction of 1% in return.

Black Swans are predictable in hindsight. They are actually the expected result. That means that they can be seen. What has been unpredictable about our economy and our foreign relations? Not much. President Black Swan has been flying about for some time thinking his caws from afar will unite the world and enliven the economy. Instead, crows flock with crows.

By the way, if this makes no sense or my spelling proves awful please understand that I actually contracted Chicken Pox. Yuk and yowser. If that isn't a personal Black Swan I don't know what is:nuts:.
 
Re: August, September, and October are Ugly. Too Much Politics is being added int

Boghie said:
By the way, if this makes no sense or my spelling proves awful please understand that I actually contracted Chicken Pox. Yuk and yowser. If that isn't a personal Black Swan I don't know what is:nuts:.
Click to expand...

Chicken Pox!? Wow-sorry to hear that, Boghie. That is definitely a personal Black Swan! I hope you're okay. I had a bad case of it, but that was in 4th or 5th grade 30 something years ago.

This market is crazy, isn't it? QE3? With the Fed buying mortgage-backed securities at a rate of $40 billion/month? I didn't think they would pull the trigger on this. I thought it would be more jawboning.

I like your allocation approach on the tracker--it's working very nicely for you. As my TSP has built up, I'm thinking about using a similar approach in order to reduce the damage from increased volatility (which will inevitably come).
 
Re: August, September, and October are Ugly. Too Much Politics is being added int

Boghie said:
By the way, if this makes no sense or my spelling proves awful please understand that I actually contracted Chicken Pox. Yuk and yowser. If that isn't a personal Black Swan I don't know what is:nuts:.
Click to expand...

Sorry to hear that. Good luck with the recovery... :D
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

V
Valleymd blog (the international question)
Replies
2
Views
237
tsptalk
tsptalk
TommyIV
March Contest In Progress
Replies
5
Views
229
rangerray
rangerray
TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk AutoTracker Insights: An S-fund Preference
Replies
1
Views
452
tsptalk
tsptalk
TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk AutoTracker Insights: TSP Investors Lock in Gains
Replies
1
Views
537
tsptalk
tsptalk
TommyIV
  • Article Article
G-Fund Allocations on the Rise in TSP Talk AutoTracker
Replies
0
Views
471
TommyIV
TommyIV
Back
Top