Boghies Account Talk

[Boghie]

State paid $22K each for Internet routers

The sales agents recommended a smaller router -- with a list price of $487.

Here is the ONLY reason for buying and installing a router capable of supporting thousands of connections for a site of four client machines...

Because requesting, justifying, ordering, and buying equipment via baroque government purchasing processes is so inefficient that it subsumes the cost savings of right-sizing the purchase.

For example, if it takes two years to properly size, request, justify, order, and install the gear it might be more efficient to initiate the process quickly and simplify the purchase. Oops, it took these goobers two years to buy and install the wrong gear.

Question. My justification demonstrates something as well, what could it be?

Yowser...

 

[nnuut]

Re: State paid $22K each for Internet routers

I think around 30% of our tax money is wasted in this same manner, those of us (all) that work or worked for the Government see it every day.

The WASTE just has to STOP!
​

 

[amoeba]

Re: Yup, Amoeba - I'm taking some risk off the table for Summer

I won't say a word.

That is five words.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Yup, Amoeba - I'm taking some risk off the table for Summer

Hey folks,

I think my two brain synapses zapped together with a reasonable explanation for escalating college tuition.
It is rather simple. It follows the theory of Occam s Razor.

How about this...

• Early on only families of 'means' could send their children to college. It was sortof a rite of passage. Everybody gets into 'Skull and Bones' and things. Meet the future grandees of our country. Thus, university grades could reflect reality. Somebody could graduate with a 'C+' average and still have the connections for future employment. Additionally, High School teachers could properly grade their students since grades were not critically important for college admission.
• Then, there was a big push for opportunities for the general public to attend college. In my case, the University of California and State Universities were developed. And, the State of California basically funded the tuition. I think that was prevalent elsewhere as well. So, the pricing of an education ceased being the coin of the realm. Merit measured by High School grades took the place of pricing. Now, High School teachers had pressure to increase grades - it being considered a good thing that people went to college.
• Finally, we are at the point that High School grades mean nothing. The average GPA for admission to UCSD in 2011 was 4.09. Now, what actionable information does a High School GPA provide? Not much.

Thus, price point is becoming the determinant factor again.

Good, Bad, Indifferent...

 

[SkyPilot]

...

Hey Folks,

Guessed wrongish on the market on 2011/09/23.
Moved 40% into the 'F Fund' and got out of the horrible 'G Fund'.

But, it is a nice feeling to be only part wrong. Kept 60% in the C/S. Yummy.

Including the dump spotted in the remains of September I am about even (ie. about -0.39%).

My crystal ball is as cloudy as ever, but at least I didn't put my full faith in it. 100% in the 'G Fund' would have resulted in a gain of $5. Guaranteed

Should I be safe and make $5 a month - or take some risk?

Oh, heart be still. I can't handle it:cheesy:

 

[SkyPilot]

Re: Yup, Amoeba - I'm taking some risk off the table for Summer

And now, the cost of tuition mirrors what the student is able to borrow. The more loan money is available, the higher tuition will be. The higher tuition goes, the more loan money will be available. A very cozy relationship between schools and lenders. The primary lender now being the Federal Gov't, but also the private lenders who loan beyond even what the student and parents qualify for.

Hey folks,

I think my two brain synapses zapped together with a reasonable explanation for escalating college tuition.
It is rather simple. It follows the theory of Occam s Razor.

How about this...

• Early on only families of 'means' could send their children to college. It was sortof a rite of passage. Everybody gets into 'Skull and Bones' and things. Meet the future grandees of our country. Thus, university grades could reflect reality. Somebody could graduate with a 'C+' average and still have the connections for future employment. Additionally, High School teachers could properly grade their students since grades were not critically important for college admission.
• Then, there was a big push for opportunities for the general public to attend college. In my case, the University of California and State Universities were developed. And, the State of California basically funded the tuition. I think that was prevalent elsewhere as well. So, the pricing of an education ceased being the coin of the realm. Merit measured by High School grades took the place of pricing. Now, High School teachers had pressure to increase grades - it being considered a good thing that people went to college.
• Finally, we are at the point that High School grades mean nothing. The average GPA for admission to UCSD in 2011 was 4.09. Now, what actionable information does a High School GPA provide? Not much.

Thus, price point is becoming the determinant factor again.

Good, Bad, Indifferent...

 

[Boghie]

I See an End...

Re(1): "Bubble on the Potomac", Andrew Ferguson

No End in Sight...

Ah, be we Kaleforneans and Indiana'ans know the end.

We know the end...

The end...


P.S. As proof that my state is in The End, I point to this point. I cannot hear the music video I posted above because I now use a timer to turn off unnecessary electrical appliances - to include the 2W/hr speakers on my computer. It all adds up in Kalefornea where we are starting to live as if we were in Norte California. Question: Would the rest of you sell us to Mexico to get out of national debt? Just asking...

 

[Boghie]

IFT - Last of the pre-summer IFTs to safety...

My goal starting in March was to reduce risk for summer...

To that end, this should be my last IFT before moving back into equities in October or November. This is close to my conservative allocation:

G: 30% - Nice amount of cash to play a bounce.
F: 30% - Hasn't failed yet, give it time. But failure will probably be slow
C: 30% - The most stable of the equities funds, but gives some pop
S: 10% - My pop holding
I: 0% - Tired of watching the EuroTrash make our Congress/Administration look like superstar economists!!!

It is nice to make the move when still 6%+ YTOD and on a potentially bump day...

 

[Boghie]

Treading Water...

Floating and flopping in the water...
Anyone ever seen me swim???
This is what it looks like...
Bumpin' along...

Investors lookin' six months out
Smart Money baitin' hooks
Am I doing the snagging
Or getting snagged

“Ninety-nine for the one” and “one for the ninety-nine” characterizes our global economy and its financial markets in 2012, with the obvious understanding that it is better to be a whale than a plankton. Not only do Wall Street and Newport Beach whales like myself have blowholes where they can express their omnipotence as they occasionally surface for public comment, but they don’t have to worry as yet about being someone else’s lunch.

- William H. Gross, PIMCO

 

[Boghie]

Folks, The Pens are Warming Up...

Re(1): 'All In a Day's Work', The Belmont Club, Richard Fernandez
Re(2): 'Obamanomics Fail: Unemployment Rate Rises', Whitehouse Dossier, Keith Koffler

Pen (1) writes:

Something doesn’t work any more. Of course the leftist view is that we although we are at the end of the era what we are witnessing is the end of capitalism. But don’t worry: we are on the verge of a United States of Europe, more Hope and Change and a double down on everything.

Pen (2) writes:

Obamanomics Fail

The White House can spin this any way it likes.

It can talk about the total number of jobs created over the past half century instead of focusing on this month’s numbers. It can discuss how we are digging out of the worst recession since the Black Death in Europe in 1348. It can say the George W. Bush was discovered under a sofa in the Blue Room still running the economy.

Still awaiting Pen (3). Certainly Mark Styn is huddled in a corner home office working away. This is going to hurt.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Folks, The Pens are Warming Up...

Re(3): 'U.S., Europe on different paths to same place', The Orange County Register, Mark Steyn

So, Pen (3) writes:

The Greek fiddlers and the Italian wind players all sit together, playing cards in the dressing room, waiting for the German guy to show up with their checks.

...​

That's to say, the unsustainable "bubble" is not student debt or subprime mortgages or anything else. The bubble is us, and the assumptions of entitlement. Too many citizens of advanced Western democracies live a life they have not earned, and are not willing to earn.

Anyone out there think you are going to retire at 52 on your pension.

You are counting on future politicians paying for the unfunded promises of past politicians.

All I can say is, ouch...

Invest in YOUR lockbox. Plan your retirement around your TSP account, your ROTH IRA, and other accounts controlled by YOU.

 

[Boghie]

Illinois Takes the Lead!!!

In the race to the bottom of the Blue World Marble,
Illinois Takes The Lead...



Maybe the state pension accounts are wildly underfunded,
but horseys can now be service animals.

By the way, note that the state pension accounts are underfunded by the state. And money is flowing from Illinois so fast its clogging the drain for Greece and Spain and Kalefornea.

Damn it man, where is my horsey

I want to take it to work.

:cheesy:

 

[Boghie]

What is Your Pain Point???

Re(1): TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up (2012/06/01), Tom
Re(2): 'Testing the Bulls Resolve', Seven Sentinals for TSP, CoohHand.
Re(3): 'SPX Targets', Uptrend, Uptrend

Tom, in his Weekly Wrap Up of 2012/06/01, discusses odds and risk factors in a market like ours. Basically, the odds point to a rebound from being oversold while the risk of a catastrophic failure (a Fat Tail Black Swan) is somewhat elevated - but not likely.

Basically, where is your pain point? And, why ask that question?

Well, as Tom states, the normal action of the market after blowing through the 200 DMA is to bounce and recover. If you ate your losses during the correction (sold low) and missed the early bounce than what will your return be.

Conversely, what happens if you stay fully invested awaiting the corrective bounce and it doesn't come?

And, finally, what your your personal trading patterns? I have studied mine. It looks like it takes me two or three weeks to get back into a market while I seem to be lucky enough to be 60%+ out of the market before a crash. Where am I now? 60% out of the market... I also see that I am slow to get into a uptrending market and quick on the out. The exception was last year where I rode the thing to the bottom and back. Finally, I do better when I trade less frequently. Those are my patterns. About four weeks to fully recognize growth, about a week to recognize a decline (except the lousy four week delay last year - yuk).

So, given my patterns, here are a SWAG of gains/losses:

• If at bottom, GAIN: 40% of gain from 2008/03/09 through 2009/05/04 (36%): 14.4% gain YtoD
• If before crash, LOSS: 40% of loss from 2008/09/29 through 2008/10/10 (-23%): -9.2% loss YtoD

If you are all out, your returns (based on ugly 2008 and beautiful 2009) would be:

• If at bottom, GAIN: 0% of rebound gain with a potential for 60% future gains if one jumps in
• If before crash, LOSS: 0% of loss of the potential 23% loss with another 31% of losses on the table.

If you are all in, your returns (based on ugly 2008 and beautiful 2009) would be:

• If at bottom, GAIN: 36% gain with another 60% future gains
• If before crash, LOSS: 23% in losses with another 31% to loose.

I don't think we are crashing or booming, but I can live with either of those circumstances under my current allocation. I think I am at my pain point. A crash loss will leave me at -3.63%, a crash recovery will leave me at +19.97. With two IFTs left this month I can further restrict losses or advance a gain. Regardless, I have enough in to have a nice return and enough out to cushion a blow that could have freaked me out.

By the way, I wish I could understand the technical traders here. Anyone try to read Uptrends commentary today. I can watch CH and Tom though!!! I think I'll sit tight...

 

[Boghie]

Re: What is Your Pain Point???

Re(1): 'The Twilight and the Dawn', The Belmont Club, Richard Fernandez
Re(2): 'Twilight of the West', National Review Online, Mark Steyn

An absolute must read from the Belmont Club: 'The Twilight and the Dawn'

This is actually a detailed response to 'Twilight of the West' by Mark Steyn - an article I referenced earlier.

Basically, Mr. Fernandez points out that every region is failing - but that one region will change to become the safe zone. Kinda like outrunning the bear. He believes the odds favor a North America/England/Australia transformation.

It is a must read...

 

[Boghie]

The War on Arithmetic...

Re(1): 'Beyond Wisconsin: Blue on Blue in California', Via Meadia, Walter Russell Mead

the war on arithmetic never ends well.

 

[Boghie]

Oh, The Humanity!!!

Oh, the humanity...

How many folks are 'All Out' today? And, is today the beginning of 'something wonderful' or just a head fake?

As for me, I don't know. I just know that I don't know. You know, there are things you know, and things you don't know, and things you don't know you don't know. All I can guess is that it doesn't feel like 2007 right now - excepting Europe perhaps. But, it definitely felt kinda downturny...

So, why be all in or all out. Guessing this and assuming that. Market tops are easy, market bottoms easyish, the mad muddle not so much.

Catching 40% of this move.

Yummy


Note: Just caught that Oh Contraire just bought into the risk play (I Fund).

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Oh, The Humanity!!!

Many of the street's professionals don't trust this rally - I like that. I'm all in and will ride the rails until I get dumped. If I don't get dumped I'm heading for some nice gains and more gains because I'll be DCAing my oceanic account all the way to Dow 17,000. So we'll see how high is high.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Oh, The Humanity!!!

Reducing risk in the TSP Account, not messing with the expected return. Both are minimal at this point though.

• G: 40%
• F: 30%
• C: 23%
• S: 7%
• I: 0%
• Expected Annual Return: 3%
• Expected Annual Risk: 4%

My 30/30/30/10/0 allocation really hasn't done much. Also, everything seems rather flat. Big up days followed by doldrums and a slow pace drawdown. Kinda feels like market movers are slowly migrating out and awaiting the election. Doesn't mean I will be out till after November, it does mean that I'm more or less out till the market movers determine whether the chap who thinks he isn't the big spender realize that he will not be at the helm - or vise versa.

I don't know about you but the action in Europe seems to be rather stupid. Do they really think that investors will flood back in because they are printing money. Yowser. Haven't we tried that here?

 

[Boghie]

A Losing Bet for FED Help...

Re(1): 'Bet Against QE3', First Trust Monday Morning Outlook, Brian S. Wesbury and Robert Stein and Strider Elass

Some of us are waiting for Godiva, but don't count on her...

My guess is that the Fed doesn't really want to goose anything. It is time for a 'controlled' deflation. There are no full on stimulus bullets left. Our 'Black Swan President' brilliantly 'double tapped' the recession in 2009. Too bad he missed. His stimulus did not generate new infrastructure like that of FDR. Oh, well...

 

[Handballer]

Re: Oh, The Humanity!!!

Many of the street's professionals don't trust this rally - I like that. I'm all in and will ride the rails until I get dumped. If I don't get dumped I'm heading for some nice gains and more gains because I'll be DCAing my oceanic account all the way to Dow 17,000. So we'll see how high is high.

I hope the Dow number comes by mid-week next. I can't hold on much longer!