Boghies Account Talk

Re: Trend Analysis...

ouch, that looks bad. but the deficit has been shrinking four years in a row, that's good right?

Burrocrat,

You are smarter than that...

Look at how slow revenue has been increasing. We do not have the time for the slope of the revenue curve to play much of a role in our deficit. Right now 70% of our debt is being purchased in a back room by another entity of the gubmint. Anyone remember the shell companies controlled by ENRON doing something similar. Then, one day word gets out and viola - collapse.

Who could have figured it out?
 
Re: Trend Analysis...

"The silver lining here is that Americans will be able to see the modern liberal-union state in all its raw ambition. The Sacramento political class thinks it can tax and regulate the private economy endlessly without consequence. As a political experiment it all should be instructive, and at least Californians can stll escape to Nevada or Idaho. So now Californians will experience the joys of one-party, union-run progressive government."
 
Re: Trend Analysis...

Wait until we start paying all of the ObamaCare stipends for the ones that will get free Health Care.
 
Re: Trend Analysis...

I was just thinking about adjusting the allocation of my TSP account to reflect my concerns. I wanted to take some risk out of an already conservative allocation.

But, lo and behold, the market had already made the correction for me...

Magic. Yuk, yuk.
 
The New Fair Deal!!!

I have what I consider a fair deal - a fair compromise - between Congress and President Obama.
  1. Give President Obama his Tax Increase.
  2. End the reliance on 'Continuing Resolutions'. Get a budget.
  3. Then Congress ONLY authorizes expenditures to match expected revenue.
Now, isn't that fair. Certainly the Obama Tax - which will result in about $70 Billion in increased revenue - will more than compensate for the additional $1,200 Billion being spent every year under President Obama.

Now, that is a fair deal - eh...:)
 
Blood in the Streets!!!

We will soon have the ability to buy when there really is blood in the streets.
Me thinks Israel will deal with its near neighbors so it can deal with the further enemy.

This could be the second best buying opportunity of my lifetime. Our Black Swan President is taking flight on 'Economic Ignorance Air' concurrently with an Arab Spring turned Arab Winter concurrently with a bunch of old lawyers in Congress trying to move around deck chairs on the Titanic.

Going all JP Morgan on this mess:nuts:
 
Re: Blood in the Streets!!!

Always read 'The Belmont Club'...

Perhaps the most important lesson American conservatives can learn from Israel versus the Muslim world is that there is no revenge greater than success. Right after the elections I wrote that “in the coming years revolutionary acts will be indistinguishable from self-improvement.” Although there is always be a need to resist actively, the best resistance is simply to make things work and watch Chicago, Detroit and California fall apart.​

Always...
 
Am I going Amoeba, or JP Morgan

My normal allocations are:
  • Aggressive: 2% G, 15% F, 48% C, 19% S, 16% I Expected Return: 6%, Expected Variance: 9%
  • Normal: 12% G, 22% F, 39% C, 15% S, 12% I Expected Return: 5%, Expected Variance: 8%
  • Conservative: 12% G, 27% F, 37% C, 13% S, 11% I Expected Return: 5%, Expected Variance: 7%
My current allocation is:
  • Ultra Conservative: 27% G, 27% F, 25% C, 13% S, 8% I Expected Return: 4%, Expected Variance: 5%
Lost some of the gain, didn't get hurt too much by the losses. But, am I getting too skittish and too political? Or, am I lying in the tall grass and drooling over the elk in the pasture lands? I'm thinking about moving a bit out of the tree line, setting to a crouch, and readying the leap. I see lots of respected AutoTracker investors and the Sentiment Survey in equities. However, I see the 7 Sentinels out. It's never easy, but I'll inch forward. It is feed or starve. This cat is ready to feed - but it might be messy! :nuts:

New Allocation:
  • Conservative: 12% G, 27% F, 37% C, 13% S, 11% I Expected Return: 5%, Expected Variance: 7%
 
Re: Elections Have Consequences...

Boghie, have i got a deal for you...

it's about year-end analysis time and i could use some help with the magic math. my strategery this year was not to sit in the market waiting for my losses to eventually crawl back to even (-3% last year and lucky for that), but instead hit some well-placed sentiment strikes and be out of the market most of the time unless the iron was really hot (+14% and change so far this year). i call it my prom date system, it was there so i just felt it.

i was going to offer to pay you but didn't want to alter your tax plan. then i was going to offer to trade you but that may have consequences too. so let's think of it as a you helping me move my couch on saturday and i cover the pizza and beer type thing.

i'm looking to find out stuff like: expected variance, risk vs time in the market, average gain per trade/day/fund etc, will i be able to afford a trailer or should i get used to sleeping in my car, can i afford the alpo with extra gravy, things like that.

i don't do any technical research there's a lot of that already done here, i try to aggregate news/opinions, but mostly i just wait until the boohoos and the hoorays are too loud to ignore.

there's a free coffee mug in it for you. what do you say? deal?
 
Re: August, September, and October are Ugly. Too Much Politics is being added int

trading summary follows, autotracker shows 10 moves but i consider it 4-1/2 round trip trades, middle-aged and way behind, don't mind slinging chips, roll them bones.

1/2) started the year all in and took two moves to close out the trade, 01/06 - 50C 25S 25I to 85G 5C 5S 5I, wimpy. 02/01 to 100G, reset.

1) 05/16 100G to 75C 25S, in. 06/19 to 100G, out.

2) 06/26 100G to 75C 25S, hit it. 06/29 to 100G, bail.

3) 07/12 100G to 75C 25S, hit it. 07/13 to 100G, bail.

4) 11/15 100G to 75C 25S, hit it. 11/21 to 100G, bail (early it seems).

i'm thinking of trying it again next year, best returns ever. probably crouching here on my safe rock until congress pulls its head out of its ass, which could take, like, forever.
 
Last edited:
Re: August, September, and October are Ugly. Too Much Politics is being added int

Wow Burrocrat, just wow...

i'm looking to find out stuff like: expected variance, risk vs time in the market, average gain per trade/day/fund etc, will i be able to afford a trailer or should i get used to sleeping in my car, can i afford the alpo with extra gravy, things like that.
Just so I am clear, I am not a financial adviser. I user Ric Edelman's portfolio guides in his "The Lies About Money' and mix in Quicken's Investment Allocation thangy to get the variance/risk and the Quicken Investment Performance Report to get the Internal Rate of Return (or CAGR). I also read some of Malkiel's books. Not enough to market time - and, in fac,t what I have read implies that one should not market time.

Anyway, the Quicken thangy informs me that your 75/25 C/S split results in an expected annual gain of 7% with a risk/variance of 13%. Thus, one could reasonably expect to return between -6% through +20% in any given year. You are looking at the +20% this year. Your -3% last year was also within expectations for last year. Your equity mix has less risk for the same expected return as sitting in the 'C Fund' only (a 7%/17% return/risk).

Since both of us are within market (meaning 'C Fund') expectations we must both hope that our moves have reduced risk. Personally, I would rarely be all out of equities. Being all out precludes any gains from the early transitions toward bull markets. Early returns are usually the best and biggest. What I have learned to do is reduce risk while I have concerns to a point that I will not panic sell if the market corrects (10% - 20% reduction) and then get back in over a period of time when things look better. I cannot really tell if it is working - but I do know that I didn't bail out for the recent mini correction and that is a good thing.

Good thing you didn't go all safe this year. You need years like this to balance years like the last one. If you just sit in the 'G Fund' for the rest of the year you will have an annual return of about 6%. Mix in 2009 and 2010 and what do you get - my guess is we are talking about a 9% - 12% annual return. Yummy. And, exactly how safe is the 'F Fund' really. Doesn't it seem a bit bubbly to you???
 
Politicians In Controll!!!

Well folks, the politicians are in control. What could possibly go wrong.

After a return of over 13% this year I really don't need the aggravation or the risk of these financially ignorant morons stepping on me. I will gladly step aside and show my confidence in The Black Swan Centrally Managed Economy. I believe, I believe that, I believe that we, I believe that we can, uh, I believe that we can - uh, uh - I can't remember:nuts:.

G: 50% - Dumb, but...
F: 20% - It would even be dumber to consider this reasonably safe
C: 10% - Gotta be in to win. I am neither a prophet nor a whatever so I have to have something in the market
S: 10% - This is my super secret Alpha!!!
I: 10% - I think the Greeks and Spaniards and Italians will do the right thing:nuts:​

I'll gladly watch BirchTree gain on me. It will mean that my meager allocation grows as well. Hopefully, I won't be so busy at work that I cannot take a better, more normal, allocation if the goobers actually start making the right moves. The question is: Do we goobers want them to? I think not.
 
Thoughts on Zeroing Out Various Tax Increases...

So we plebians in Kalefornea are faced with an approved tax increase, potential tax increases on autos, and various Federal tax increases. It is time to number crunch them. So Here goes:

20121130TaxManagement01.JPG

Most of us are ‘middle class’ and thus fall in the current 25% and 28% marginal tax rates (the middle two rates). Under both the current rates and “Obama’s Tax The Plutocrats Right Now but We Know that will Not Cover Our Spending so that ‘28%’ bracket better be ready” plan you can shield $5,775 in the 25%/8% rate or $7,590 if you are 50+. As a positive thinker I like to think that investing $17,500 will only cost me $11,725 in take home income – or about $450 per pay period.

But, that is not all!!! You can shield an additional $2,500 in your FSA or $6,000 (I think) in the HSA:

20121130TaxManagement02.JPG

Kalefornea’s tax increase has already been implemented. I am not in one of the brackets that were created, but I am affected by the property tax and the sales tax. It is estimated that I will pay an additional $150 in taxes of one type or another. Since I am in Kalefornea’s 8% income tax bracket I will need to shield $1,875 in income. I have already increased my CFT contribution by $260/year, leaving !,615 to be shielded. I can increase my FSA, move to an HSA, improve my FEHB, increase charitable giving, or increase TSP contributions to match that.

I think I will pretty much max out my FSA out because my lovely wife and I will need spectacles next year. That will consume an additional $1,000 - leaving $615 to be shielded.

I can wait on the remaining tax management till I see what the ignits in Congress and the Administration come up with. Here are the scenarios – with an understanding that Kalefornea already kicked me:
  1. No Change (Current): $615 (probably more) more to charity because it will provide the best benefit to society and make me feel better. This will result in the Federal government getting $470 less from me for no reason. Oh well, too bad.
  2. Fiscal Cliff: I need to shield an additional $4,500 on top of the ~1,200 adjustment made on behalf of Kalefornea. That will require an additional pre-tax withholding of $12,500. I don’t think I can do all that – and I know I cannot fit all that under the 401(k) limits – but I will increase my TSP contributions to the full $17,500. Maybe I can fill the rest with a charitable contribution. Maybe I should review the HSA option. I should think positively: It will only field like $8,000 to me!!! Regretfully, this will result in Kalefornea losing $1,000 in revenue for no reason. And, just think of what taking $14,375 out of the economy will do for the Kalefornea and the national recovery. Oh well, too bad. Hope others are with me!!!
  3. Obama’s Tax: I will add a couple of points to my TSP and maybe a bit more to charity just to spite Obama and Moonbeam. I want them to feel it. Hope others are with me!!!
 
Re: Thoughts on Zeroing Out Various Tax Increases...

I love your Screw Moonbeam plan!
 
Good Debt, Bad Debt...

Re(1): 'Debt Musings and Misconceptions', Calafia Beach Pundit, Scott Grannis

The burden of our debt binge is already upon us because we have borrowed trillions of dollars to support consumption, rather than new investment.

We, as Americans who repeatedly vote failed lawyers into office, borrowed money that DID NOT increase the GDP of our nation. Thus, that debt is bad debt. Otherwise, we would be able to fund the programs we spent it on via existing revenue streams.

What matters in the future is how productively we spend the proceeds of future bond sales, not how we pay off the bonds we've already sold.

Any future debt should be used to grow the GDP. Not welfare, not retirement packages, not bailing out failed companies, not the military, etc.. Yes freeways, yes power generation, yes regulation reduction, etc..
 
Re: Good Debt, Bad Debt...

Federal Revenue are +9.7% this year. I'll take that kind of return any year. Great...
Federal Expenditures are +15.8% this year. That is embarrassing. Great...

I guess we have a revenue problem, eh...
 
Re: Am I going Amoeba, or JP Morgan

boghie, i apologize in advance if this is out of place, but i have a burning question related to risk and you're the only person i can think of that might be able to shed some light. kick me out if you need to, but seriously can you help cipher me this? i've said before birchtree and boghie are two of my favorite investors, benchmarks, plus they start with b so it's effecient to check them on the autotracker. results aren't in yet today/year but roughly we all have a two year average return of +6% (that's fine company i'm in) so how does that work?

birchtree: buy and hold 'till old. all in all the time. 100% in the market. ? 100% risk ?
boghie: judicously vary allocation 35% - 65%. average 50% in at any given time. ? 50% risk ?
burro: hit and git, blackjack. looking for specific circumstances. 25% average time in the market. ? 25% risk ?

deliberately entering during probable high volatility skews the odds somehow but i can't figure it. i think i did pretty good at catching the lows i shot for, but i missed a lot of opportunities. and i consistently bail too soon before highs. believe it or not i think this is just as legitamate as any other market voodoo. and i plan to increase gains while reducing time in market further in 2013. any help is appreciated.

to top it all off, james and jth kicked our butts. james never quite says how and jth will tell you all about things i don't understand, but i suspect both are a little bit more gunslinger than they admit.

happy new year friend. any input welcome. and thanks, i could use the help.

so returns are more than f(x)time, it includes some element of f(x)risk/time. but how to quantify and or mitigate?
 
Last edited:
Back
Top