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Good Lord: I Hate Sitting in THIS Allocation

Looking at Drudge, CNN, Fox News, etc...

Come on people - it is a bad flu.

It is not the plague. It is not an extraterrestrial disease. It is not the Andromeda Strain. It is not The Stand.

Here is some 1st World Dudette with the Coronavirus Flu...

Come on people...

I hate that I have to sit in an allocation that normally generates a 6% or 7% Return (only 4% over inflation).
That 2% differential from my normal allocation means that my Winnebego driver will ALSO have to captain my small yacht:rolleyes:

Good Lord:embarrest:
 
Re: Good Lord: I Hate Sitting in THIS Allocation

Just snoozing along.
Not a care in the world.
No big ups, no big downs.

:smile:
 
I'm Up, They See Me, I'm Down...

Give a point, get a point, and give it up again.

But, I guess it is better than giving four points, getting five points, and giving it all up again.:nuts:

My current allocation is quite the snoozer.
Any more boring and I'll be a boozer.
Bad pyramid haiku
Is only haiku

My haiku is not even real haiku - but I am ignorant of that. My haiku, best haiku:rolleyes:
 
Recommended Information Source: The Belmont Club

To all,

I have posted individual links from Richard Fernandez of The Belmont Club, but I strongly recommend just putting the main thread in your Favorites:

https://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/

When you find someone that always seems correct in his analysis it is a very good idea to take a gander through the posts every once in a while. He is covering this Corona Virus thang from different angles that are of interest. He is logical - but, not flippant like me... And, he is SMART and well informed. Medical stuff is not his forte (necessarily), but if he writes something than bet on it.

And, that DIFFERS from the dummies in the media who do not know and do not study the topics on which they write. Ever deal with the media first hand? If you have you understand that sentence.
 
Re: Recommended Information Source: The Belmont Club

This is dumb, but readying myself for a 50/15/20/10/5 allocation. Only 35% in if I pull the trigger.

I am hoping to see a sign of smart money flowing into equities before 1100 EST. Money is flowing out of both equites and bonds - as well as gold and silver - so it kinda has to be going to cash.

I hate allocations like that. I hate locking in losses. But, if smart money is in a panic I will not fight it.
 
Re: Recommended Information Source: The Belmont Club

Boghie said:
This is dumb, but readying myself for a 50/15/20/10/5 allocation. Only 35% in if I pull the trigger.

I am hoping to see a sign of smart money flowing into equities before 1100 EST. Money is flowing out of both equites and bonds - as well as gold and silver - so it kinda has to be going to cash.

I hate allocations like that. I hate locking in losses. But, if smart money is in a panic I will not fight it.
Click to expand...

Flat lined, but kinda moving up. AGG is moving higher.

Hate having IFTs take hold COB and having to trade them by 1200 EST. That fact always leaves on in the dark for many hours during a panic. But, the leveling off seems to indicate a bottom - or, at least not a free fall...
 
Lookin' On the Bright Side

Well, gotta look on the bright side.

As of now the market (as proxied by the S&P500) is down about 25% and I am likely down 15% - so, that is a gain of 10%:eek:

Cannot make the IFT. As of now the thing seems to have flatlined from the dump. This is dumb, very dumb...

I'm feeling sick - and, it ain't even anything as exciting as the Corona Virus:sick:

Time for a Corona beer and a paper bag for my head.
 
Good Lord, What is THAT Market Mover

Yowser…

Who/What can move the S&P500 like THAT. I mean, +130 points in a few minutes. That is a very big boy.
 
Re: Good Lord, What is THAT Market Mover

U.S. stocks recovered some of their steep losses on Thursday after the Federal Reserve announced extraordinary funding actions to ease strained capital markets in the wake of the coronavirus sell-off.

Boghie said:
Yowser…

Who/What can move the S&P500 like THAT. I mean, +130 points in a few minutes. That is a very big boy.
Click to expand...
 
Re: Good Lord, What is THAT Market Mover

weatherweenie said:
U.S. stocks recovered some of their steep losses on Thursday after the Federal Reserve announced extraordinary funding actions to ease strained capital markets in the wake of the coronavirus sell-off.
Click to expand...

I think that was not a bunch of individuals - it was likely a few very large managed funds and actively managed hedge funds. Maybe large managed retirement pension accounts. Maybe a programmed by-in at -25% from the highs. Hopefully, it is the result of actual human thought and greed vice some dumb Quant Program - but, I'll take what I get...
 
Re: Good Lord, What is THAT Market Mover

No impact, no idea:

Allocation is way too conservative for me. And, it got more so as the days passed by. This might be a bit early, but so far I haven't locked in losses if I get back to a normal allocation. In fact, I might come out ahead if this thing is not the Black Death:

  • G: 25%
  • F: 15%
  • C: 28%
  • S: 22%
  • I: 10%

Should be an 8% average return with an 8% risk variance.
 
Time to Get More Toes in the Water

The market is recovering. The economy will recover. The end is not near.

Can't be sitting in 20% Cash and 20% Bonds. So, moving a meaningful amount out and into equities:

  • G: 15%
  • F: 15%
  • C: 32%
  • S: 25%
  • I: 12%

Overweighting G and S, Underweighting F and S

Expected Annual Return: 8%
Expected Risk: 9%
 
Good Lord, I am sorry about the horridly late response.

Sometimes I just don't want to look at my account. I don't want to be tempted to muck around with a well thought out allocation because of 1 point swings. Hibernating through April and May probably kept me sane and earned me significant mullah. In fact, I am basically even YtoD. Still a bit down because I am too bored to figure out my contributions, but very close none the less. When the market fully recovers I will be decently ahead of where I would have been had I sat around with my 2019/12/31 allocation.

Anyway, to answer your question, I use two sources:

I am kinda preferring the PortfolioVisualizer site to Quicken. It will generate more stats and metrics for a quirky quant like me. Kinda enjoy it. On the other hand, the Quicken numbers include a longer range of data points - so, there is that.
 
Dang you TSPTalk...

You really have to have the 'TSP AutoTracker' tool. Now, I can't live in ignorant bliss. I am STILL -1.33% for the year. What am I to do!!!

I guess the choices are:
  • Panic
  • Riot
  • :banana:
 
+ 1, that’s exactly where I am!!
giphy.gif



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Boghie said:
Dang you TSPTalk...

You really have to have the 'TSP AutoTracker' tool. Now, I can't live in ignorant bliss. I am STILL -1.33% for the year. What am I to do!!!

I guess the choices are:
  • Panic
  • Riot
  • :banana:
Click to expand...

I like your number better than mine 7.36
 
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