Boghies Account Talk

[nnuut]

Good to hear you are doing well Boghie!!! 60 degrees with chance of rain, cold front on it's way, way down here in Boiled Peanut GA! Taxes low, housing Cheap no CA crap here.

 

[Mcqlives]

Thanks for the drive by! You are definitely one of the "whatthehellhappenedto" people I think about around here. Glad all is well and you are retired in NC. ...and central IL had snow showers yesterday morning and is supposed to be 70 at the end of the week.

 

[sgtbriangreen]

Welcome to NC!

 

[Boghie]

Well, not going 100% in - but moving to an aggressive stance:

• G: 4% - Standard Edelman allocation (kinda dumb in our environment)
• F: 21% - I don't like this, so I was thinking of moving more to G:
• C: 32%
• S: 29%
• I: 14% - This actually looks good now. Maybe move some of that BBQ Pig held in F to this later

Annualized Return: 9.82%
Annual Compound Return: 9.07%
Annualized Expected Variance: 11.62%

Is that Santa in the sky or the comet everybody is talking about???

 

[Boghie]

Been a boring year for TSP investment. I mean, it was hard to lose money and decisions were easy. Decided to 'let her ride' for most of the year and ended up quite well.

So well in fact that:

That no longer small number on the left side of my TSP balance rotated up Thursday!!!

I had a phone conference with Edelman Financial on Thursday. It was really a great discussion and I learned quite a bit. A full plan will be presented this coming Wednesday. He told me that my allocation was great and my contribution allocation was perfect. I have to work a bit to break down the profit from the house purchase and my insurance needs may not be quite met so Wednesday should be informational. All in all, I highly recommend them.

 

[Boghie]

Been a boring year for TSP investment. I mean, it was hard to lose money and decisions were easy. Decided to 'let her ride' for most of the year and ended up quite well.

So well in fact that:

That no longer small number on the left side of my TSP balance rotated up Thursday!!!

I had a phone conference with Edelman Financial on Thursday. It was really a great discussion and I learned quite a bit. A full plan will be presented this coming Wednesday. He told me that my allocation was great and my contribution allocation was perfect. I have to work a bit to break down the profit from the house purchase and my insurance needs may not be quite met so Wednesday should be informational. All in all, I highly recommend them.

Well, a fullish plan was presented - and things look great. I am signing up with Edelman Financial.

Our investment philosophies are very similar - they should be, I kinda ripped my three allocation models right off his website:laugh:. Anyway, without directly addressing my three portfolio strategy, the adviser stated that I was perfectly set on allocation and contribution and that anything from a 60%/40% equity/bond split through 75%/25% split was good to go. Well, that is the range of my three allocations... He is recommending the aggressive allocation for the investable assets from the sale of my house since I will not be touching that money for a decade or more. Without me even signing on he gave me the fund breakdown - which is kinda risky and obviously he knew it. It is awesome. I will be able to invest in some of the Dimensional Fund ETFs which are only available to large investors - and, I ain't large (don't go there). I will not present that ETF allocation because it is probably proprietary and could get me in lock up!!! But, it would generally map to 7%/12%/22%/18%/14% G/F/C/S/I and a mess at 17% that I cannot really map to TSP.

An oddity, but cool. Because I made a purty profit in the sale I am short term wealthy. He is recommending that I max out my TSP contributions and just hold back the difference in a cash account to cover it. Cool. Get the money invested early so it grows the max amount, hope the wifey thang gets a job and can start supporting my contribution habbit or start up her own, or just do it for a year or two. All good. And, he calculated a full year of buffer money to hold as well. Leaving a very decent lump for a down payment on a house here in North Cacilaki.

Third, a very detailed retirement income plan was presented that incorporates all our income streams. Very, very conservatively incorporates them. For example, he is using the Social Security income on the current statement - not inflation adjusted. He did the same on my Federal FERS pension - and did not incorporate a COLA. In the end, to live on an income stream equal to our current all I need is a 5.5% return. And, OMG, that is NOT after inflation which he is assuming to be 3%. Yowser, just 2.5% over inflation. My long term IRR is 8.5%. I think I can get at least a 5.5% return.\

The remaining thing to deal with is insurance. I have been on vacation and I don't think I can access the portal outside the .mil domain. Not exactly certain what my life insurance benefits are. They were good to go when set. He will review those number and offer suggestions.

Awesome experience, highly recommended. And, as you probably have noted, I am not a Noob when it comes to financial planning. I was good to go and without any real problems. For me this process just adds a bit and gives me more knowledge. Plus it will let me off-site some of this to a good team when I retire in a decade or so.

 

[evilanne]

The remaining thing to deal with is insurance. I have been on vacation and I don't think I can access the portal outside the .mil domain. Not exactly certain what my life insurance benefits are. They were good to go when set. He will review those number and offer suggestions.

Would be interested in what they recommend. Outside of life insurance, you may want to consider umbrella policy--generally covering home & auto.

 

[Boghie]

Would be interested in what they recommend. Outside of life insurance, you may want to consider umbrella policy--generally covering home & auto.

I think he mentioned an Umbrella policy. We are going to focus on maxing out TSP contributions and moving money from my checking account to TD Ameritrade for investment. I was asked to send him the life insurance information after I returned to work.

 

[Boghie]

Well, the predicted collapse of 'merica ain't happened yet. I just don't know what to do. I mean, my super science allocation always seems to get out of whack.

Against my better judgement, I'm going to let 'er ride!

• G: 4% - No idea why this is important, but really who cares.
• F: 19% - This is my dog. My dog might be ugly to you, but he is cute to me! He will keep me warm when the rest run away!
• C: 33% - Nice and steady. Kinda fat and long on tooth though.
• S: 31% - Probably overweight and due for a wellness checkup and diet
• I: 13% - I have no idea what the EuroTrash are doing. All seems lost. But...

This is still an aggressive allocation for a middle aged geezer.

And, am I still on the Arc - even though I spend hours of my time losing at 'World of Tanks' rather than watching myself make money!!!

 

[Boghie]

Wish I had better judgement...

There really is no valid reason for the downturn, but there is no reason to ride it till the end. I am switching the allocation from Aggressive to Normal.

• G: 20% - This will be my dog food fund. It is now earning like 3%
• F: 20% - Might still have some gimpy legs if the market keeps wobbling
• C: 27% - Nice earnings you had there, too bad something happened to them
• S: 23% - Found a Horses Head in the bed
• I: 10% - Basically, Europe sucks

My Normal Allocation is: 4/36/27/23/10

But, I think the F Fund still has a more down than up. So into G it goes. I can only guess at the expected return and risk, but it is an educated guess. Call it a SWAG

• Expected Return: 8% (with inflation. That is, 5% after inflation)
• Expected Risk: 7% (more G, less F should drop the risk a little)

 

[Mcqlives]

Boghie! Where are ya bud? I got looking this morning and said to myself..."What's Boghie been moving to lately". Have to dig down, way down, to even find your thread! Hope all is well and you are weathering this market!

 

[Boghie]

It is a miserable snow storm in this market - and there really isn't any reason for the precipitation ;-). Just politics...

Anyway, all good.

But, it is a bad thing when the G-Fund is in the running for the best returns of the year;damnit

 

[Boghie]

Why did the Market correct?

Don't know - it just did... Bailing a bit in late November buffered some of the pain, but staying conservative is leaving money on the table. Time to get aggressive:

• G: 4% - No idea why this is important, but really who cares.
• F: 12% - This is my dog. This dog will just lie around and do nothing but sleep. Under weighted because of FED
• C: 35% - Why did this correct. Because. But the bounce back can be tasty!!! Over weighted for aggression
• S: 32% - Why did this correct. Because. But the bounce back can be tasty!!! Over weighted for aggression
• I: 17% - The EuroTrash might get some love. Over weighted for aggression

My normal Aggressive Allocation (4/21/32/29/14) has an expected return of 9% and a risk of 10%.

My best guess - till I get home - is that an allocation of 4/12/35/32/17 will have an expected return of 10% and a risk of about 13%.

 

[Boghie]

Late Money is Smart Money...

Let us see if this trend holds. Mighty nice...

 

[ravensfan]

Let us see if this trend holds. Mighty nice...


You had to jinx it, didn't you...:chairshot:[SUB][SUP]
[/SUP][/SUB]​

 

[Boghie]

Got home and Quicken tells me the allocation of

• G: 4%
• F: 12%
• C: 35%
• S: 32%
• I: 17%

will have an expected return of 10% and a risk of about 12%.

That is better than I thought, so all is good.

I am not going to swami the market. Ain't going to jinx myself - my retirement depends on it:nuts:

 

[Boghie]

I haven't made a single IFT this year. OMG...

But, I've lost almost 3/4ths of a single point Month to Date on May 2, 2019. OMG...

All the while earning almost 15% Year to Date by May 2, 2019. And, the market looks to boom today...

Tragic earnings coming - nope
Gubmint Shutdown will collapse earnings, economy, employment - nope.
The Mueller Report will send the Orange Haired Dude to the Club Med Pokey in upstate New York - nope.
Things be chuggin' along. Gubmint not getting in the way of economic progress. Me have a bit more cash every payday. All good.

Time to take a nap on the 'Go Away in May' strategery. Maybe use the 7% decline rule before I bail on a melt-up market. Heck, that would leave me with an 8% gain for 2019. The G would give me another 2%. I could live with a 10% 2019 gain. But, me thinks this year is a likely boom time.

Tom, please don't X-Nay me from the AutoTrader or TSPTalk. There just ain't nuthin' to talk about with the good times rollin'. Very boring... And, I don't want to troll The Amoeba account. That is just rude. Funny, but rude. And, he does have big shoulders so all is good.

 

[Boghie]

Game of Thrones: Summer is Coming

Yuk, yuk:laugh:

Time to take some market risk off the very agro allocation:

• G: 20%
• F: 20%
• C: 27%
• S: 23%
• I: 10%

Return/Risk:

• 8% Expected Annual Return
• 7% Expected Risk

This spat with China is a dumb reason to run to the Lilly Pad. But, it is kinda silly to have a very agro allocation during the Summer Doldrums. Why take that risk. I'll lock in my 2% loss from the high and sleep well!!!

 

[Boghie]

Re: Game of Thrones: Summer is Coming

I'm in a panic...
And sweating too...

What am I to do, being 64% in the market? I mean, some Chinese have a virus and they fly planes everywhere. That has been happening for only a hundred years. And, politics are dumb. That has been happening for thousands of years.

Is a strong panic good enough - or do I have to do more:nuts:

 

[Whipsaw]

Re: Game of Thrones: Summer is Coming

Palpable sarcasm :laugh: