Boghies Account Talk

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Boghie said:
Re(1): 'You are the Someone', The Belmont Club, Richard Fernandez
Re(2): 'ISIS Murderer Walks on Sousse Beach with Gun in Hand in Front of Onlookers', Daily Mail, Jay Akbar and Flora Drury

Photo of 'men' waiting for the Someone to come...

View attachment 34263
ISIS Murderer Walks on Sousse Beach with Gun in Hand in Front of Onlookers
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ISIS murderer walks on Sousse beach with gun in hand in front of onlookers | Daily Mail Online

this is not christianity, or buhddism, or rastafari, or gaism, or hinduist, or even atheism.

this is islam.

happy sharia to you too.

forewarned is forearmed.
 
I am moving beyond a normal conservative allocation. I think I will wait out the excitement and the pending problems and the noise pretty much on the sidelines. Also, this market seems frothy in all aspects. Finally, Warren Buffet only has 14% of his assets in bond funds - so why should I have more in that dog.

  • G - 46% (Don't like either the market or the politics)
  • F - 14% (Warren Buffet is smarter than I)
  • C - 20% (Gotta have some growth if wrong, but this element seems frothy)
  • S - 14% (Seems to be a grower, not as frothy as C)
  • I - 6% (Those Greeks are dumb enough to not accept the cash from da'Boyz)

I do not know the Average Return/Risk of this allocation. My educated SWAG is:
Annual Return - 3%
Risk - 5%​
 
Looks like TSP.gov is in a panic. I can't get in to make my trade. Dang me...

I wanted to move 10% into C/S/I and take it out of the G. Dang me... But, if the normal TSP 'investor' is trading today we can expect a huge downturn at the end of the day!!! This lion is ready to hunt the weak, disabled and Amoebas...
 
Boghie said:
Looks like TSP.gov is in a panic. I can't get in to make my trade. Dang me...

I wanted to move 10% into C/S/I and take it out of the G. Dang me... But, if the normal TSP 'investor' is trading today we can expect a huge downturn at the end of the day!!! This lion is ready to hunt the weak, disabled and Amoebas...
Click to expand...

Same issue here, couldn't log in while I was still making up my mind. lol In the end I decided not to move anyway but still!! Should complain and maybe we'll get some extra moves!? Same issues reported this morning for Scottrade and TDA. Crazy.
 
I'm going to follow Burro's lead and set my trade later. The panicing masses should be out of the system, relaxing in their brilliance. I expect a sell off tonight through tomorrow. My trade will take place COB tomorrow...

Will be watching for end of session downturn and will execute if there is a downturn...
 
Boghie said:
Looks like TSP.gov is in a panic. I can't get in to make my trade. Dang me...

I wanted to move 10% into C/S/I and take it out of the G. Dang me... But, if the normal TSP 'investor' is trading today we can expect a huge downturn at the end of the day!!! This lion is ready to hunt the weak, disabled and Amoebas...
Click to expand...

Looks like this happend to a few folks today (WorkFE and me as well).
 
Look at the nice meals limping around out there.
But, I only want the weakest of the herd.
Culling the herd with minimal effort.

  • G - 36% (Still don't like either the market or the politics)
  • F - 14% (Now even more bubbly)
  • C - 26% (Not so frothy anymore)
  • S - 16% (Not so frothy anymore)
  • I - 8% (When will Israel bomb the peace loving Ayatollahs)
This will take place COB on Tuesday. Blood in the streets:smile:
 
Boghie said:
Look at the nice meals limping around out there.
But, I only want the weakest of the herd.
Culling the herd with minimal effort.

  • G - 36% (Still don't like either the market or the politics)
  • F - 14% (Now even more bubbly)
  • C - 26% (Not so frothy anymore)
  • S - 16% (Not so frothy anymore)
  • I - 8% (When will Israel bomb the peace loving Ayatollahs)
This will take place COB on Tuesday. Blood in the streets:smile:
Click to expand...

Israel is such a tiny % of the I fund. The big movers for that fund are the UK and Japan, which make up almost 50% of the index when combined.
 
As promised:
  • G - 36% (Still don't like either the market or the politics)
  • F - 14% (Now even more bubbly)
  • C - 26% (Not so frothy anymore)
  • S - 16% (Not so frothy anymore)
  • I - 8% (When will Israel bomb the peace loving Ayatollahs)

Average Return: 4%
Risk: 7%

I really don't like that risk factor, so I may move a bit of C to G/F before the month is done. Actually hoping for a flat day today. Maybe a littlish drop... We shall see...
 
Wow, I guess I flubbed this allocation. All I have to do is look at my 'Visitor Messages' to see my markers. I thought I was in my normal 'Conservative' allocation.


But, God must be on my side.
I kinda like what I got.

Average Return (Inflation Adjusted): 4%
Risk: 6%

True Joy.

However, I have no idea what is coming. The bounce back either implies that we did not need the correction and the smart money just took the opportunity to chew on the dumb money... Or, we will see the smart money taking a few more bites out of dumb money that got back in. Which got in - da'Boys or da'Dumbies? I wanted a slow upward grind - not a 3% - 4% rebound. Doesn't anyone listen anymore:cheesy:
 
Re(1): 'What Do We Do Now?', The Belmont Club, John Fernandez

If you want to know what is going on strategically, then read The Belmont Club. Here is the unhappy beginning to a rather depressing commentary:
It’s been a landmark fortnight though not in a good way for the Belmont Club. At least three of the major themes long discussed on this site have shouldered their way to the front pages: the failure of Obama’s war on terror in the catastrophes overwhelming MENA and Afghanistan was predicted by the Ten Ships; the crisis of Washington as described by Ted Cruz had earlier been sketched out in the pamphlet Storming the Castle. Perhaps most eerily, a report by a German reporter detailing ISIS’ plan to kill hundreds of millions through nuclear terrorism echoes the Three Conjectures.
Click to expand...
Two other important reads (books):
Happy days are not here today.
 
I always get into a correcting market early - just see 2008 for a real solid example. Yowser...

So, now I am making an effort to get in too late:laugh:.

Burro must be kinda pissed with me. So boring, so sleepy... I have half of my assets sitting around doing nothing for me. However, I do not want to get them involved till late this month. I think somewhere around the 20th I will move 10% into C/S/I and somewhere around the 27th another 10%. That will make me 70% in by November and we shall see from there. Regardless, I think the F Fund will be a dangerous spot to be invested in for quite some time. Too bad we do not have commodities, emerging market, or REIT options available to us...
 
Ric Edelman discusses the 'safety' of pensions about an hour into today's (2015/10/24) show...

The whole show is a worthwhile listen. Here is his main link: Experts in Financial Planning. Edelman Financial Services

Click on the 'Listen' menu option to either get a list of radio stations or access his pod cast (or whatever they call it). Currently, the pod cast is last week's show, but he will post this weeks show soon. The various radio stations present his show at various times so you might be able to get today's show this weekend before it hits his recorded version on his website...
 
Boghie said:
I always get into a correcting market early - just see 2008 for a real solid example. Yowser...

So, now I am making an effort to get in too late:laugh:.

Burro must be kinda pissed with me. So boring, so sleepy... I have half of my assets sitting around doing nothing for me. However, I do not want to get them involved till late this month. I think somewhere around the 20th I will move 10% into C/S/I and somewhere around the 27th another 10%. That will make me 70% in by November and we shall see from there. Regardless, I think the F Fund will be a dangerous spot to be invested in for quite some time. Too bad we do not have commodities, emerging market, or REIT options available to us...
Click to expand...


What are you waiting for? You are going to miss all the good rallies. :blink:
 
Geeze JP, you were right. My waiting game has been a losing game. I always get in too early - and usually early October - but I think I'm too late this time. Anyway, here is the new allocation.

  • G: 23% - Still overweighted in G because F is correcting
  • F: 12% - I don't want to grab that knife
  • C: 27% - Already corrected from the correction, so why buy more
  • S: 23% - Overweight because it hasn't fully recovered
  • I: 15% - Overweight because some here think it will boom and it will be your fault if it tanks:cheesy:
Expected Return: 5% (after inflation adjustment)
Expected Risk: 8%

So, now I am 65% in the market and awaiting information on direction. I want to be 75% - 80% in the market sometime this year...
 
Rate hike coming, but the market seems good to go with it...

•G: 17% - Still overweighted in G because F is correcting
•F: 8% - I still don't want to grab this knife
•C: 34% - Hoping for Santa
•S: 26% - Hoping for Santa
•I: 15% - Hanging tight

Expected Return: 7% (after inflation adjustment)
Expected Risk: 9%

So, now I am 75% in the market after the market seemed good to go with an expected rate hike. Really don't want to be in the F for the rate hike, but you never know...
 
Last edited:
What is this market???
Does it seem toppy or bottomy???
What are the factors - economic and political - driving it???

Normally politicians in America would try to goose things in an election year. Can they do so now? Has our brilliant leadership already spent into years of design margin? Is there any slack left? I don't think so. In reality I think government entities that have deficit spent for 50 mostly golden years are now going to be forced to tighten belts. All levels of government. I think there is very little appetite in the private sector to bail out a free spending and inefficient public sector. Anyone out there want to double your taxes???

Will this crash the market? That is the question. We need about a 12% cut in spending to break even with income. If the Federal gubmint starts cutting spending measurably (say 5%) than the private sector might kick in either through growth or through direct contribution. I get the feeling that non-gubmint entities are looking at the numbers nowadays. The last threat of a gubmint shutdown did not elicit the normal howls of protest - it was more a who cares moment. I really don't think the private sector is done with growth, I just think they are choosing not to grow. They are sitting on their hands awaiting decisions. They cannot vote folks to make tough decisions so they await change forced upon gubmint. Thus, I think this year politicians lose and management wins - hopefully.

This is going to be a rocky year - especially for us...

For now, I will stay mostly invested. We seem to be at a balance point. We have already gone through a 10%+ correction - short lived, but still...
 
At a trailing P/E of 20+, the answer is "toppy". I don't think politics matter (until later in the year), unless they involve lots of stimulus money, which won't happen this year. Oil oversupply remains a drag on the overall market. Agreed, this January (like last), is likely to be rocky - time to pay attention.
 
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