Boghies Account Talk

[Boghie]

Re: My Synapses are Flashing - And that is a Bad Thing...

Boghie, I am so sorry, I really did *****JINX***** it!

Nice Santa rally we had there, eh...

 

[Boghie]

I'm pissed...

My attempt at a risk adjusted Alpha resulted in a crappy 2014 return of 6.73%. Inflation adjusted we are talking about a gain of 5% (real). That is what I need, but definitely not what I want. And the market (measured by the S&P500 grew by 13.74%). My markers at my age and risk tolerance are the L2030 and the S&P500. I made less than half of my preferred marker (S&P500) and could not figure out why.

Here is the why...

G: 2.31%
F: 6.73%
C: 13.74%
S: 7.80%
I: -5.27%​

I was kinda scared all year. I especially did not respect the 'F Fund' - and still don't. And, G Fund returns lead to scraping Alpo cans but if you fear a bond adjustment where else can you go. But that is not the why. The why is the 'S Fund' and the 'I Fund' which underproduced. Since I firmly believe in risk adjusted allocations I do not swing from one single fund to another. So, what is a likely allocation that I might hold in a raging bull market. I looked back and at my most bullish my allocation was 0/0/40/30/30 - which also happens to by my contribution allocation. If I assume that I was a raging bull for the entire year my return would have been:

G: 3.31 * 0 = 0%
F: 6.73% * 0 = 0%
C: 13.74 * .4 = 5.5%
S: 7.80% * .3 = 2.3%
I: -5.27% * .3 = -1.5%

Thus, raging bull Boghie would have earned: 6.3%​

Yowser...

Let's say Raging Bull Boghie had a reasonably clear crystal ball and not held as much 'I Fund'. Looking back, my guess is that the 20/20 Bull would have held 0/0/55/35/10. Raging Bull Boghie always has some 'I Fund' over the long haul - he always eats a little grass from here, from there, and from afar. Thus

G: 3.31 * 0 = 0%
F: 6.73% * 0 = 0%
C: 13.74 * .55 = 7.56%
S: 7.80% * .35 = 2.73%
I: -5.27% * .1= -0.53%

Resulting in: 9.76%​

So, I guess I shouldn't be so sad. My goal is to gain what i can while compensating for risk. The only way for someone who tries to gain Alpha my way to get double digits this year was to swing and hold only the 'C Fund'. That is not my style and if I tried it I absolutely know I would lose my shirt. And, trust me, I don't look good only wearing shoes...

 

[jpcavin]

But I'm sure the thong looks nice... :nuts:

I'm pissed...

My attempt at a risk adjusted Alpha resulted in a crappy 2014 return of 6.73%. Inflation adjusted we are talking about a gain of 5% (real). That is what I need, but definitely not what I want. And the market (measured by the S&P500 grew by 13.74%). My markers at my age and risk tolerance are the L2030 and the S&P500. I made less than half of my preferred marker (S&P500) and could not figure out why.

Here is the why...

G: 2.31%
F: 6.73%
C: 13.74%
S: 7.80%
I: -5.27%​

I was kinda scared all year. I especially did not respect the 'F Fund' - and still don't. And, G Fund returns lead to scraping Alpo cans but if you fear a bond adjustment where else can you go. But that is not the why. The why is the 'S Fund' and the 'I Fund' which underproduced. Since I firmly believe in risk adjusted allocations I do not swing from one single fund to another. So, what is a likely allocation that I might hold in a raging bull market. I looked back and at my most bullish my allocation was 0/0/40/30/30 - which also happens to by my contribution allocation. If I assume that I was a raging bull for the entire year my return would have been:

G: 3.31 * 0 = 0%
F: 6.73% * 0 = 0%
C: 13.74 * .4 = 5.5%
S: 7.80% * .3 = 2.3%
I: -5.27% * .3 = -1.5%

Thus, raging bull Boghie would have earned: 6.3%​

Yowser...

Let's say Raging Bull Boghie had a reasonably clear crystal ball and not held as much 'I Fund'. Looking back, my guess is that the 20/20 Bull would have held 0/0/55/35/10. Raging Bull Boghie always has some 'I Fund' over the long haul - he always eats a little grass from here, from there, and from afar. Thus

G: 3.31 * 0 = 0%
F: 6.73% * 0 = 0%
C: 13.74 * .55 = 7.56%
S: 7.80% * .35 = 2.73%
I: -5.27% * .1= -0.53%

Resulting in: 9.76%​

So, I guess I shouldn't be so sad. My goal is to gain what i can while compensating for risk. The only way for someone who tries to gain Alpha my way to get double digits this year was to swing and hold only the 'C Fund'. That is not my style and if I tried it I absolutely know I would lose my shirt. And, trust me, I don't look good only wearing shoes...

 

[burrocrat]

That is not my style and if I tried it I absolutely know I would lose my shirt. And, trust me, I don't look good only wearing shoes...

it looks like your risk avoidance is working well as you did better timing your allocation migrations in and out than you would've holding all year. i like the new raging bull boghie. it's ok no matter how you look wearing only shoes, we don't go running around in only shoes because we care what other people think, we do it for the wonderful tingly sunshine and freedom. everybody is cozy on the ark anyways.

 

[TSP-roulette]

These thongs are rather nice and very confy.

 

[Boghie]

Uh, you guys are sick...

Back when I was playing basketball (semi)competitively I would have looked sharp in (only) shoes.
Now my exercise is drinking beer and eating Cheez-Its.
I can't see my toes:cheesy:

Anyway, the market smiled today. I know that chart. It is a chart that makes me smile...

 

[Frixxxx]

Re: Too Funny, Happy Independence Day!!!

Dude,

You need to write a book. I'll buy it and you can autograph it!

Title: "Risk Aversion: Investing with Tolerance"


Peace!

 

[maui21ice]

Back when I was playing basketball (semi)competitively I would have looked sharp in (only) shoes.

What every male member on this board wants to imagine right now, right...? Yuck.

HAHA

 

[Boghie]

Actually, Frixxxx, me not so risk adverse right now...

I am rebalancing to add a bit more alpha with the S Fund, back off the I Fund (but still hold a largish chunk) and hide some of the growth that has already taken place in the C.

• G: 11%
• F: 14%
• C: 32%
• S: 29%
• I: 14%

This is an Edelman Moderate Risk and Growth allocation. Not fudging the numbers around because this looks like a standard market. Maybe the I could be a bit of a weight, but it could also be a little alpha. A little worried about the F, but I have been worried about the F for quite some time. I feel comfortable with this and will not touch it in a bail out maneuver till the S&P drops 7% - 12%.

 

[Boghie]

In May go away. Too many Black Swans flying around for me to hold an aggressive allocation - and, it is coming on the slow time of year for the market...

• G: 18%
• F: 14%
• C: 29%
• S: 25%
• I: 14%

Average Return: 5% over inflation (so, 8% including inflation)
Average Risk: 8%

This is an Edelman Moderate Risk and Growth allocation. The default Edelman allocation for my 'normal' setting is 4/31/29/25/11. I am fudging out of the F and into the G and I. Fudging out of the F and into the G should reduce risk while the small fudge into I should increase it slightly. A little worried about the F, but I have been worried about the F for quite some time. I feel comfortable with this and will not touch it in a bail out maneuver till the S&P drops 7% - 12%.

 

[Boghie]

Re(1): 'Someone', The Belmont Club, Richard Fernandez

Um, ouch

Everywhere you look, there are parts left over where there should be none, things eerily rattling around inside the motor that should be silent and a weird kind of shimmy in joints that should have no play.

 

[Boghie]

In May go away. Too many Black Swans flying around for me to hold an aggressive allocation - and, it is coming on the slow time of year for the market...

• G: 22%
• F: 18%
• C: 27%
• S: 23%
• I: 10%

Average Return: 5% over inflation (so, 8% including inflation)
Average Risk: 8%

Odd that backing off another 8% to G/F doesn't change the average return and risk but that is the way it is. Anyway, the market price changes in the various funds changed the return to 5% (stayed the same) while increasing the risk to 10% (a change of 2%). I really do not want an 'Aggressive' allocation at this time so I have backed off.

My guess is that I was on the edge of a 9% Risk number and the market took what was an effective 9% Risk to 10%. I played with the numbers an this allocation seems firmly in the 8% Risk range. That is fine with me. In 2008 the S&P 500 with a risk of 17% lost 37% - or, just a bit less than 3 Standard Deviations on its way to almost a 4 banger. If I start drinking fine beer and do not stop till January 1st than my current allocation should leave me a -20% annual return - or, a normal correction. If I wake up somewhat sober from a mid-summer slumber I can slip out of my risky outfit and into sweats and avoid the risk of...

 

[Boghie]

Re(1): 'GDP Gap: 10% and Growing', Calafia Beach Pundit, Scott Grannis

Scott Grannis, Mark J. Perry, and Brian Wesbury keep me invested. They all provide valid discussion on our low growth environment and where it is going. Basically, democratizing technologies are overpowering the state and centralizing forces. I like that.

In talking about the 10% growth gap Grannis reminds one that with proper growth policies we will be in for a great ride. Those policies are not likely till the current policy maker is gone - not to mention some of the old dinosaurs on the other side. But, one side is blowing the geezers out of their party while the other side is trying to get their FDR cadre elected. Oh well...

 

[Boghie]

Well,

To me the market looks overvalued by a bit. But, I made the mistake of enacting an IFT on the 1st and do not want to blow my last May IFT today in a washy market. It might bite me in the buttocks, but I don't want to be in an Amoeba situation and need an IFT to hunt. I am already at a 5/8. The below allocation would take me to a 4/7. I think I will hold on a bit longer:

• G: 25%
• F: 25%
• C: 26%
• S: 16%
• I: 8%

Average Return: 4% over inflation (so, 7% including inflation)
Average Risk: 7%

I have not pulled the trigger and it is my most conservative normal allocation. I have been over-weighting the G Fund because the F Fund seems to be correcting a bit. Problem is, the 'G Fund' is being raided right now for another Obama Fiscal Emergency. Oh well...

 

[Boghie]

Yowser,

This doesn't look good. We are now running at minimal deflation, that is -0.1%. But, the trend doesn't look good. The only recent year with multiple YoY deflation numbers was 2009 - which was a good year. However, are we just coming off a crash - nope.

Me thinks this boom is running out. Time for a stall and then a correction.

 

[Boghie]

Re(1): 'ISIS in Ramadi: Like the Tet 1968?' The Belmont Club, Richard Fernandez

This might be the most painful paragraph ever written about President Obama:

Obama’s remarks provide a look into his mind, into his categories of thinking and into the boundaries of his conception. And in a way, the glimpse is comforting. ISIS is going for the ideological headshot, for a way to break his will, but Obama is like some dinosaur from the age of degenerate socialism, with a mind full of mush. There’s no central nervous system to disrupt, no will to break that hasn’t been broken already. ISIS cannot shatter Obama’s strategic plan if there isn’t one. Trying to scare Obama is like trying to terrify a cabbage.

My one real question - and, the one that I have been dealing with for years - is this: Is our Black Swan President about to be exploited? And, what does that mean for my TSP account? I mean, it is tragic that the civilian kill count in Syria is well over 220,000 - well over that of the 'W' era Iraq body count. And, now you have to add the Obama Iraq body count to that number. And, the Libyan body count. And, the Yemeni body count. And, the Egyptian body count, And, the Somali body count. And the Ukrainian body count. And, ... Leading from the behind just helps in stacking the bodies, eh...

So, when will one of the displaced millions hit us. We have watched them die while basking in the light of a Nobel Peace Prize. The only way to scare a cabbage is to kick it. My guess is that a cabbage scorned is a cabbage enraged. And, enraged cabbages do not react in a measured manner. Will it be an enraged and offended cabbage that turns the region into glass? Hope not.

 

[Maricar19]

Well,

To me the market looks overvalued by a bit. But, I made the mistake of enacting an IFT on the 1st and do not want to blow my last May IFT today in a washy market. It might bite me in the buttocks, but I don't want to be in an Amoeba situation and need an IFT to hunt. I am already at a 5/8. The below allocation would take me to a 4/7. I think I will hold on a bit longer:

• G: 25%
• F: 25%
• C: 26%
• S: 16%
• I: 8%

Average Return: 4% over inflation (so, 7% including inflation)
Average Risk: 7%

I have not pulled the trigger and it is my most conservative normal allocation. I have been over-weighting the G Fund because the F Fund seems to be correcting a bit. Problem is, the 'G Fund' is being raided right now for another Obama Fiscal Emergency. Oh well...

I am not knowledgeable about the "forces be" regarding the stock market. However, the I fund had been my savior for the month of May. I am thinking of increasing my I Fund exposure when the dip comes around.

 

[amoeba]

Me and you are just tearing it up this month. Tomorrow is another day.

 

[Boghie]

Our funds have been rather boring to negative lately. Why be in something that seems ready for a transition. Then again, why be 100% out of something that can transition up. Using one of my IFTs to migrate to a very conservative allocation for me:

• G: 32%
• F: 18%
• C: 26%
• S: 16%
• I: 8%

Average Return: 4% over inflation (so, 7% including inflation)
Average Risk: 7%

So, if we have another 2008/9 I will be somewhere around -16% to -19% if I hold this allocation. Contributions and growth had actually changed the risk for my earlier allocation to 9% with an annual return of 5%. I really don't want that kinda spread on a transitional market.

 

[Boghie]

Re(1): 'You are the Someone', The Belmont Club, Richard Fernandez
Re(2): 'ISIS Murderer Walks on Sousse Beach with Gun in Hand in Front of Onlookers', Daily Mail, Jay Akbar and Flora Drury

Photo of 'men' waiting for the Someone to come...


ISIS Murderer Walks on Sousse Beach with Gun in Hand in Front of Onlookers

So they did nothing. The lesson is don’t count on them to save your bacon. When the crunch comes you might have better luck locating the mythical Florida Man than the Someone you hope will save you. Maybe he existed once, but Gramsci has banished him from the meeting halls and town squares. Perhaps he could once be found in the station house, but he’s manacled by the lawyers. If ISIS attacks near you, hide, evade and fight back first and call Someone only when you’re out of the line of fire. Maybe you’ll get an answer.

That Someone’s busy with transfat, transgender and alternative marriage issues. He can’t bother with protecting borders. Just leave your number and the time you called, and he’ll get back to you. The state has finally achieved both universal jurisdiction and total impotence at one and the same moment.