bmneveu's Account Talk

[Sensei]

I too was tempted to go in on the bull flag. But I'm worried about the middle-finger forming. If that turns into something else, I'll look to get back in.

 

[JTH]

I too was tempted to go in on the bull flag. But I'm worried about the middle-finger forming. If that turns into something else, I'll look to get back in.

Looks like a classic Middle Finger Formation, based on this data I'd expect an execution on or about 22 Jan. Estimated Upside PO 1870-1885, downside 1800-1820

View attachment 26782

If it makes you feel any better, the last time I posted a MMF, the markets put in a reversal just a day later, taking on a -5% decline

 

[bmneveu]

So far we've popped, dropped, and trickled back up a little. Id like to see it trickle up the rest of the day. I've seen this pattern many times before. It's a pop, drop and trickle kinda day!

Posted that back on April 24th. Same pattern today, minus the bit of weekend selling at the end of the day.

So far my IFTs have worked out well this month. I came into the month already in the S fund, avoided this 3 day dip and got back in for today's gains. I am a little worried about being exposed over the weekend with what's going on in Iraq. I honestly don't see more than maybe 1% left to the upside for this move. I'll try to post a chart sometime this weekend explaining my thought process there.

Hope everyone enjoys the weekend. I should probably go fill up my gas tanks. Or look in to trading in for an electric car.. I wonder why solar panels on cars hasn't hit mainstream yet. They probably don't make enough energy. Now I'm just rambling...

 

[bmneveu]

I honestly don't see more than maybe 1% left to the upside for this move. I'll try to post a chart sometime this weekend explaining my thought process there.

I just drew them now because I'd like to get some opinions. I have 2 charts. The first is what I saw originally with maybe 1% upside on the w4500 to 1035 or so. The second is a much more bullish Cup and Handle formation with upside in the 5%+ range. What do you all think?

 

[Sensei]

Hope everyone enjoys the weekend. I should probably go fill up my gas tanks. Or look in to trading in for an electric car.. I wonder why solar panels on cars hasn't hit mainstream yet. They probably don't make enough energy. Now I'm just rambling...

Have you seen this? LOL.
Solar FREAKIN' Roadways! - YouTube
(Just posting it for entertainment value - not to start an asterisk * discussion)

BTW, I like the charts. I have been mostly looking at them with a bearish perspective (Middle-finger or H&S type formation), but you make a good case with the bull flag/cup & handle. Judging by sentiment right now, I'd say it's a toss up. How's that for prognostication?

 

[Bquat]

Wow, I like the cup and handle pattern. Normally I see that kind of stuff but didn't look at W4500. I am trying to figure if my white channel in the S&P chart is a bull flag again. So if it is come on for your cup and handle. I am worried about the intraday double top today.

 

[bmneveu]

As of today I'm #1 on the Autotracker for the month of June with 3.21%, and #12 overall on the year for Non-Premium with 8.85%. Knocking on JTH and Sensei's doors! I only have a .4% lead over a pretty big pack so there is very little room for error. If the S fund is down tomorrow, I could drop like a rock down the rankings. I'll keep hoping my Cup and Handle on the w4500 chart plays out!

This is not the first time I've been #1 in a month. I think about 2 years ago I had a great first half of a month, pulled into the garage, and slowly watched others climb above me and knock me out of the top 5 on the very last day of the month. Still no coffee cup prize to this day. Right now I'm sipping out of a "Bark Less, Wag More" puppy-paw-printed mug. I wish my dogs could read.

I am 2 weeks away from my Associate's Degree, and it requires attention this morning. But later today I'll be watching the U.S. in the World Cup, and hopefully San Antonio win the NBA finals!

 

[bmneveu]

The Cup n Handle is continuing to play out on the S fund chart. Here's a new snapshot of it. The depth of the cup is the upside, starting from the lip. That gives us a 1104 target, about 70 points higher from where we are today. The most common recommendation I've found is to get in at the first close above the lip.

 

[jkenjohnson]

The Cup n Handle is continuing to play out on the S fund chart. Here's a new snapshot of it. The depth of the cup is the upside, starting from the lip. That gives us a 1104 target, about 70 points higher from where we are today. The most common recommendation I've found is to get in at the first close above the lip.

View attachment 29140

I hope it plays out

 

[bmneveu]

Now at 1038, the S fund is right on the lip of the cup. I would consider a close above this level to be an extremely bullish indicator.

 

[remark]

Interesting info on the S fund - Thanks! By the way #38 on the overall autotracker - good job and congrats!!!

 

[bmneveu]

Interesting info on the S fund - Thanks! By the way #38 on the overall autotracker - good job and congrats!!!

Ohh a peak into the premium side! Thank you

 

[bmneveu]

The I Fund has had 2 strong days in a row now. I eek'd out a tiny gain in the S fund to continue the streak of green days. My trading account got wacked by DUST today. Ouch.

 

[burrocrat]

how soon are you thinking about exiting your long tsp position?

if it takes off out of the gate and looks like it's headed for +1% at the close, then i'm thinking about twisting off tomorrow.

 

[JTH]

One lesson for investors from the 1990s bubble

View attachment 29182

 

[burrocrat]

ok just tell it to me straight, does that teacup graph thing suggest a rocket ride or a crash?

 

[bmneveu]

how soon are you thinking about exiting your long tsp position?

if it takes off out of the gate and looks like it's headed for +1% at the close, then i'm thinking about twisting off tomorrow.

I'll probably take the house's money at that point as well. We've had a fantastic month. I don't want to get greedy and ruin it. That being said, I think I would be more comfortable staying in if it trickled up .3% or so every day. Maybe it's psychological, but probably better for overbought indicators.

 

[bmneveu]

ok just tell it to me straight, does that teacup graph thing suggest a rocket ride or a crash?

The Cup n Handle chart pattern is bullish after price breaks through the lip, which the w4500 (S fund) has just done yesterday and today. JTH's article shows the same pattern on the NASDAQ, which is bullish for tech stocks as well. If it played out, we would ride up the handle like a rocket.

 

[bmneveu]

North Dakota wouldn't be a bad idea if I was 18 without a purpose or direction.

Boom helps fast-food workers bring home the Bakken

 

[bmneveu]

Trickling up the handle and I'm A-Okay with that. I added a few things to the chart. The green and red arrows show where I've IFT'd in and out. Green Up means I got in, Red Down means I got out. Now everyone can see where I've gotten lucky, and what I could have done better. I added a 6-Day RSI to the bottom. I chose that time frame for it because it was the lowest I could get it without it flatlining on 100 or 0. Coincidentally, today we hit 100. That tells us it is probably time to see some selling pressure.