bmneveu's Account Talk

[bmneveu]

Long WTI Crude as of today. I love low gas prices, but WTI doesn't stay this cheap for long.

Was it a 2.5% dividend? Every stock does that. Whatever $$ value the dividend is, the stock will open at the previous close less that dividend amount.

Lol, yes that is definitely what happened. Thank you for clarifying that .

 

[bmneveu]

I'm willing to stay in oil throughout the winter to hit my price target. I got in at ~84.75 a week ago. It will get back up to 100 like it always does. Whether it takes a week or 3 months for that to happen, I'll be in until it does.

 

[bmneveu]

the SPY and w4500 daily charts look like they are starting to roll over. If I don't see strength to the upside before the deadline I may jump out for a few days to skip a dip. I want to be in before November so I would look to buy in again sometime next week.

 

[bmneveu]

Finally a sign on the SPY. A small nudge to the upside right before the deadline keeps me in over the weekend.

 

[bmneveu]

Not a single red candle on the w4500 today all the way down to the 15min. level. Impressive! Now that I've written this, we'll probably start seeing them.

 

[bmneveu]

Well I'm finally positive from my entry on 24SEP, over a month later. I'm glad I stayed in through the correction / consolidation. The w4500 is short-term (RSI 10) overbought and SPY is as well to a lesser extent. I'll be surprised if we don't pull back a little tomorrow. That's fine. I'd like to make more than a few pennies before getting out again so I'm stickin' to it for now.

 

[bmneveu]

Today looks like a good day to get out on top. But if I do that I'll be out going into November, and id rather be in. So I'm probably gonna stay in and hope we go higher!

 

[Birchtree]

Japan is buying 50% stocks for the BOJ - best to ride this wooley beast until the rocket runs out of stimulus.

 

[bmneveu]

I'm staying in until we hit the neckline projections on the inverted H&S patterns on SPY & w4500. Tom pointed them out in his blog last night. Good stuff over there.

 

[bmneveu]

We're now starting to touch the neckline on the SPY chart. If this plays out like an inverted H&S pattern, we'll see a pullback in the 3-4% range (which would be a huge buying opportunity). We could stay near the neckline for a week or two first though. I am considering pulling at least some of my money out of the market sometime this week.

 

[bmneveu]

What is everyone doing on Vet's Day?

Right now I'm drinking coffee, watching CNBC (well, it's on in the background), and looking at my fantasy football lineups. Soon I'm gonna go get lunch for free somewhere (undecided), bring the dogs to a nearby park, maybe go see Interstellar (I already saw Fury or that would have been a more appropriate movie for this holiday!), and then get another free meal somewhere . Probably have a homebrewed beer or two tonight while I read up on a war of my choice. Probably WWI. 'Merica!

Happy Veteran's Day all.

 

[bmneveu]

Look at that, the S&P paused at the neckline while the w4500 kept climbing to it's own. How perfect! It might be time to get out of the market soon, unless you don't mind riding out the right shoulder dip.

 

[bmneveu]

IFT'd today. Pulled 50% out to G. Now I'm 50G/25C/25S. I took money out because both C and S funds are at their necklines and look ready to head down to make that right shoulder. I left half in because of the bullish seasonality and market in general. And I'm young, or so I keep telling myself...

 

[pmaloney]

I agree. I hope to get a positive run to Thanksgiving followed by the pullback to the shoulder followed by a Santa Claus rally but I am only 15C/15S cause I am old. Stay bullish while your young and lets hope for a good holiday season.

 

[maui21ice]

I'm taking that advice from ya pmaloney, because in October I was C early on, then panicked and went F the exact day before C and S boomed back to recover their losses AND THEN SOME! Just gonna ride the C and S for a while through the end of the year until I probably switch it up in January.

 

[bmneveu]

So I found this site back in 2011 because I wanted to get more out of my TSP account. I've never believed in using it as a glorified savings account. It's too bad the majority of my coworkers do... Anyway, I went back and compared my returns to the G and C funds to see how I've done. Here's the little chart..

ME G FUND C FUND
-2.88% 2.45% 2.11% 2011*
12.46% 1.47% 16.07% 2012
3.82% 1.89% 32.45% 2013
13.23% 1.95% 11.06% 2014*

* Incomplete years

I've learned a lot since 2011. I've started this journey to beat the G Fund every year, and I've done just that (after my bumpy start). Now my expectations are higher. I want to make over 12% a year. That's easy when the Fed's pumpin' and the market is going straight up. 2013 was a real dud for me. That cost me thousands, but I still beat G at least. The real test will come next year. The first full year of no QE in what, 6 years? I expect it to be choppy. We will have to earn our gains with well timed IFTs. I'm looking forward to it .

I'm taking that advice from ya pmaloney, because in October I was C early on, then panicked and went F the exact day before C and S boomed back to recover their losses AND THEN SOME! Just gonna ride the C and S for a while through the end of the year until I probably switch it up in January.

Sounds like a good plan . Seasonality agrees with you. If you can catch some January gains before switching, even better.

 

[bmneveu]

Was the sideways action at the neckline just a consolidation/breather so we could keep truckin' higher? Looks like today's uptick is trying to convince us of that. It's still early, but if we close at these prices there will be some real damage done to the inverted H&S pattern.

 

[bmneveu]

Small Caps outperformed the large caps today. That's interesting. We haven't seen that in a few months.

 

[Cactus]

Actually, if you check the dailys there are quite a few days that the S Fund outperformed the C Fund in November. It's just that on average the C Fund is still in the lead. The question is will the S Fund catch up?

 

[bmneveu]

Well I'm thinking about pulling my other 50% out on Friday. I just really hate getting out on the last day of the month because I'd rather be invested going into December to give me that extra IFT flexibility. But with how strong those seasonality numbers look, Friday looks ideal to get out. And it could match up with the right shoulder pullback we've been waiting for.

Actually, if you check the dailys there are quite a few days that the S Fund outperformed the C Fund in November. It's just that on average the C Fund is still in the lead. The question is will the S Fund catch up?

Ahh you're right! And looking back at the monthly numbers, the S fund usually outperforms in green months, while the C fund usually outperforms in red months. I guess for some reason I just "felt" like small caps had been lagging. Thanks, good call.