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bmneveu's Account Talk
- Thread starter bmneveu
- Start date
bmneveu
Well-known member
The F Fund was quite gentle on us today all things considered. It settled in at -0.05% while freestockcharts.com shows -0.48% for AGG and my stock app on my phone shows -0.22%. I don't know which AGG is right, but I do know our F Fund outperformed it, like usual. I especially enjoy the F Fund outperforming its parent index when I am invested in it!
JTH
Well-known member
AGG pays out a dividend at the beginning of every month, stockcharts.com factors this in, while other charting websites don't.
https://www.google.com/finance?chdn...G&ntsp=0&ei=8Rx9VIG-FcmQqwH36oDoDQ&authuser=0
bmneveu
Well-known member
Using SPX (S&P500) for this post because my notes all over the SPY chart make it look like a mess.
The line for the top of the channel is the neckline for the inverted head & shoulders. The bottom line is something I made to create a channel from the left shoulder low, parallel to the neckline. That gives us an idea of how far our right shoulder can pull back. We'll see 1970 if the right shoulder touches that line. A more moderate consolidation could bring us to the 50 day moving average (the blue line), which is just shy of 2000 right now. I think we touch that (the 50day) at a minimum, and that is where I will put money into play. Whether it be tomorrow at 1998 or a week from now at 2005, I'll put half my money in when we meet the 50 or it meets us. If we slice right through it I'll probably jump all in. I should be 100% in equities if/when we touch the bottom of the channel. That will probably coincide with the seasonally bullish santa rally that starts in, what, about a week or so? Should be perfect!
The line for the top of the channel is the neckline for the inverted head & shoulders. The bottom line is something I made to create a channel from the left shoulder low, parallel to the neckline. That gives us an idea of how far our right shoulder can pull back. We'll see 1970 if the right shoulder touches that line. A more moderate consolidation could bring us to the 50 day moving average (the blue line), which is just shy of 2000 right now. I think we touch that (the 50day) at a minimum, and that is where I will put money into play. Whether it be tomorrow at 1998 or a week from now at 2005, I'll put half my money in when we meet the 50 or it meets us. If we slice right through it I'll probably jump all in. I should be 100% in equities if/when we touch the bottom of the channel. That will probably coincide with the seasonally bullish santa rally that starts in, what, about a week or so? Should be perfect!
bmneveu
Well-known member
Wow it is tough to not buy some of this weakness, but I still think we have another 15 points to the downside at least (at the time of writing this we are at 2,016 on the S&P500). Below you will see I added a few diagonal white lines to the chart. I measured the size of the pullback on the left shoulder and then created a parallel line and placed it on our recent high, which occurred 05 DEC. This shows the pullback potential of the right shoulder if we mimic the left shoulder from our recent high. It would bring us to around 2000, almost exactly. If we ignore the high and stay true to the channel, we have a downside target of 1970-1975ish, depending on how steep the selloff is.
bmneveu
Well-known member
Wow, serious selloff at the close today. Looks like we are ending around 2003 on the S&P. A rough estimate shows we are within 10 points of the same size pullback as the left shoulder. I would have been very happy with that entry price if I decided to jump in today. I will certainly look for an entry point early next week.
ATCJeff
Well-known member
Agree 100%. My target was 200 (SPY) for entry. This morning we were within 1% so I moved to 100% S. Even bought some TNA before lunch @ 80.28 I think. Come home to find a steep selloff at close right on my target. Very happy right now. Oil is the unknown....
Jeff
weatherweenie
Well-known member
70.28, I hope?
bmneveu
Well-known member
I believe oil's influence on equities has been inconsistent. Sometimes it swings equities, sometimes it doesn't. Oil peaked in mid June and has had very little strength since then. The S&P 500 is in the middle of its 5th big swing since then (2 for the left shoulder, 2 for the head, 1 for right shoulder now). I don't know how to compare the beta between the two. If anyone does, please feel free to pop in and let us know 
.
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bmneveu,
Congratulations for your successful IFT entry on 12/16. I think you acted wisely when you reserved 50% as a defensive measure. I saw and liked your careful consideration before deciding what to do, because we have seen painful head fakes deplete our well deserved profits before. I have some dry powder left to invest, but am also weary of making a bad decision.
I don't know whether I will keep some money in cash or not, because I am seriously wrestling with the decision. I could be chasing a potential surprise to the downside. Nevertheless, I do find that in this message board there are two of the most respected members that recently went and bought in in full force. JTH and MJR. The very interesting info they posted yesterday is a big weight in the balance in favor of the buy side -- to the point that the charts and statistics they posted are very supportive of buying-in.
JTH posted the PnF, TRAN "bearish signal reversed, double top breakout chart", and MRJ posted the quite bullish Santa rally statistics. So, I think we have a decision to make. I will appreciate that you post if you are buying or holding. The reason I ask is because you rightly mentioned Tom's statistics that today might be a down day. It may or may not happen exactly today, but JTHs and MJRs charts and/or statistics are also very persuasive. With so much liquidity, low interests, and seasonality, we might see good gains here (or not). As of this writing, cash futures are positive. Tia and Good Luck!
Last edited:
bmneveu
Well-known member
Thank you for the kind words! Long story short, I'm getting in. I can't write much now but I will justify my entry later today. 50C 50S.
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