bmneveu's Account Talk

[bmneveu]

Not sure if it's been mentioned yet but 2063 looks like a resistance level we need to clear and close above decisively to break this lull period. As of this writing we are at 2067, which is great, but closing here or higher would be even better. I consider this very bullish and am not getting out unless we fall below that level today.

Edit: My numbers are referring to the S&P 500.

I see a short term triple top on SPX that is scaring me out of the market today. I'll be IFTing out by the deadline today and look for a lower entry price within a week or two.

 

[bmneveu]

IFT today 100G

 

[soon2retire]

IFT today 100G

I have a sinking feeling that I should have done the same.....

 

[bmneveu]

Figures, right after I IFT out of the market, we have a strong up day and break the resistance I was looking at. 2063 is under us now. Now I don't know what to do. Aghhhhh

 

[Holden_Caufield]

get back in

 

[Cactus]

I know how you feel. Last year I rode the S Fund all the way down. Finally, on Feb 5, 2014 I bailed to the F Fund. The recovery started the very next day and kept going. I refused to chase but it just kept going. I paid the price as you can see from my last years returns. I never made it back up. It only got worse when I tried to do so.

I'm not saying this will happen to you. It's just that we need some kind of trigger of when to abandon a bad IFT. Unfortunately the 2 IFT limit keeps me in bad trades way too long because we can't afford to whipsaw.

 

[Whipsaw]

Did somebody say Whipsaw?

Cactus, I was in a similar situation last year. I've changed my approach to much longer holds (in or out) because of the IFT limit (no knee jerk reactions). I'm doing better than last year so far. Still, need to hawk all the great analysis going on in the threads and stay on top of things.

 

[Cactus]

I'm glad that's working for you, Whipsaw. Any timeframe on those longer holds? I only executed 8 IFTs last year, so it's not like I tried to use 2 IFTs every month.

My problem last year was relying too much on perceived support and resistance. I do better following a trend. Still, last year the trend changed right after my Feb IFT and I need to follow these trend changes without chasing and getting whipsawed.

 

[Whipsaw]

For instance, I've been holding invested, in 'sticky pants' mode, as the overall trend is still up; at other points where I've had to bail, waited quite some time for a pullback to get back in. My worst move was a knee jerk bail on short term news driven drop (damn Ruskies) and the market shot up for six more weeks last Oct.

 

[pmaloney]

I did that too. Held and sold at the exact bottom because things didn't look good and I was going on a trip. Things shot up that day as I was traveling and I was stuck in the G fund for the big rise at the end of a lousy October.

 

[Whipsaw]

I did that too. Held and sold at the exact bottom because things didn't look good and I was going on a trip. Things shot up that day as I was traveling and I was stuck in the G fund for the big rise at the end of a lousy October.

I hate it when that happens! >.<

 

[bmneveu]

Well that was a huge mistake. After we broke that line in the sand, the market pretty much went straight up for 2 straight weeks. I have been waiting for a dip every since.

Figures, right after I IFT out of the market, we have a strong up day and break the resistance I was looking at. 2063 is under us now. Now I don't know what to do. Aghhhhh

View attachment 32397

 

[Cactus]

Yeah, I did that last year. This year I've resolved myself to do a little more chasing if I have too. We'll see how that works out. :suspicious:

 

[pmaloney]

Me Too!

 

[bmneveu]

Well miraculously the C/S funds are now near the level that I exited them on Feb 9th. I missed the big move up, but also missed the big move down. I don't want to miss the next leg up. Time to focus and seriously consider entry around here.

 

[bmneveu]

I refuse to let the G fund outperform me. I need to snipe a % or two for my own well-being. I might just need to pull a BigJohn move; jump in and don't get out until I'm up at least 1%.

 

[bmneveu]

IFT COB Today, 25C 25S 50I.

 

[bmneveu]

IFT COB Today, 25C 25S 50I.

Pow! Finally I'm in the money this year.

 

[bmneveu]

IFT 100G! In and out with a quick 2 day snipe. Hopefully it doesn't all wash away this afternoon!

 

[bmneveu]

In class this week to become a Command Financial Specialist. I won't be able to give investment advice, but I can tell a kid he can't afford that sports car!