bmneveu's Account Talk

[bmneveu]

Some food for thought before I head out... Projection for next leg of the Inverted H&S Pattern!



Edit: Don't mind my notes on that volume spike. I think that was a glitch.

 

[bmneveu]

I redrew the projection lines to have the gain/retrace amount match the size of a traditional Inverted H&S pattern (relative to the rest of the setup). I'm also guessing the peak will be on January 5th, to match the historically strong string of days coming up. I put the rest of my chips on the table today and plan to keep them there until on or around the 2nd trading day of January, which is the 5th. That will keep me fully exposed to the full extent of the santa claus rally, and then out in time to skip the dip back to the neckline. Looks like the peak could be between 2130 and 2140, 50 points north of where we are now. Mid January looks like a potential target area to get back in at the low of the dip.

Edit: Oops loaded 2 versions of the picture. Old one shows 50 day moving average in blue, new one has that removed and replaced with a blue projection line from left shoulder low to projected peak.

 

[airlift]

I redrew the projection lines to have the gain/retrace amount match the size of a traditional Inverted H&S pattern (relative to the rest of the setup). I'm also guessing the peak will be on January 5th, to match the historically strong string of days coming up. I put the rest of my chips on the table today and plan to keep them there until on or around the 2nd trading day of January, which is the 5th. That will keep me fully exposed to the full extent of the santa claus rally, and then out in time to skip the dip back to the neckline. Looks like the peak could be between 2130 and 2140, 50 points north of where we are now. Mid January looks like a potential target area to get back in at the low of the dip.

Edit: Oops loaded 2 versions of the picture. Old one shows 50 day moving average in blue, new one has that removed and replaced with a blue projection line from left shoulder low to projected peak.

bmneveu,

Thanks for your posts and charts. I hope the Santa rally really takes off. If your projection is right, we could make good gains. Assuming the market behaves as projected, I hope we can get out, as we take something off the table. Nice work.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Well, I was going to click the "like" button for your posts, but for some reason, the like button has disappeared on all the threads. I saw that earlier today as well. Seems something is going haywire with the slow website and missing buttons, so I guess I'll just tell you that I like your charts, and hope Tom gets the gremlins out of the servers.

 

[soon2retire]

Thanks for the chart, liking what I see and hoping it pans out! Staying fully vested in the S fund until early Jan then out hoping for the dip and then back in for my second move in Jan. Hoping everyone has a Merry Christmas and that their STOCKings are full!

 

[bmneveu]

Wanna know when Santa's coming? Just call NORAD!

Santa's on his way! NORAD's tracking his sleigh

 

[bmneveu]

I just posted in the Market Outlook thread that we are following the Inverted H&S pattern almost perfectly. Well, then I noticed this.



There have been pauses for about 18 trading days in between the right shoulder - head and head - left shoulder. We very well might be climbing up to the next peak right now, or we might be in another period of sideways action. I think in a few days we should know which way we are heading. In either case, it's certainly not bearish.

 

[ravensfan]

Got my stop loss number all ready to go if we break to the downside...Hoping it doesn't though.

I just posted in the Market Outlook thread that we are following the Inverted H&S pattern almost perfectly. Well, then I noticed this.

View attachment 31769

There have been pauses for about 18 trading days in between the right shoulder - head and head - left shoulder. We very well might be climbing up to the next peak right now, or we might be in another period of sideways action. I think in a few days we should know which way we are heading. In either case, it's certainly not bearish.

 

[maui21ice]

Since I can't private message you, I just want to say good luck this week with the Ravens gunning for a Wild Card spot! I'm a Chargers fan, so obviously I'm pulling for San Diego to fill up the final seed, but if we by chance don't make it in, you got me pulling for ya in the playoffs!

 

[bmneveu]

I'm a Bucs fan, so it's been a frustrating decade for me. Hopefully we draft a QB with a top 3 pick this year. Mariota or Winston. I'm an FSU fan so Winston would be neat, but I don't know if I can deal with that headcase much longer.

Well after thinking for awhile about why my TSP balance is so much lower than everyone else's in the Share Your TSP Balance thread, I figured out what I'm doing wrong. And I think it was PO's excel chart that made me realize it too, so thank you for that PO! Anyway, my issue is not with any of my methods. It is an issue with my employer. The military does not match contributions to TSP, and it is killing my account growth. I would have almost double the account balance if I were receiving matching contributions. Like probably 95% more. That is HUGE! I have been on the fence over whether I would be staying in or getting out after this contract, and this realization has made the decision easy for me. The only problem is I still have 5 years remaining. I'll get out with 10 years 8 months in and no regrets either way. Why get out when I'm already over the halfway mark to retirement? Because that extra 9 years I would have to stay in would kill my retirement account growth even further. And I will be able to add those years served towards a retirement package with another federal employer anyway. I ran the numbers through a retirement calculator this morning. If I went my whole life without matching contributions, I would miss out on an extra $1.13M!! I can't live with myself knowing that. I have to deal with it for the next 5 years, and I will increase my own allotment to make up for it as much as I can. But all last night and this morning all I could think was, "this sucks."

 

[Boghie]

My guess is that you are correct.

You should not limit yourself to Federal or Gubmint employment. For example, my next door neighbor's employer matches with 12% if he contributes 4%. So, for a 4% contribution you get 16% of your salary going into the 401(k). Yowser. He is in a high tech medical field so... But, in the private sector the match can be much higher and the pay can be much higher. Do not count on your pension. If you do so you are counting on future sleazy politicians honoring the promises of current sleazy politicians. I don't mean it will zero out - more likely they will tax it more heavily or make public demands to reduce the benefit because of annual funding emergencies. Our gubmint is a mess.

However, have you looked at the health care benefit. That is worth something. I think retired GS types have to pay the full health care insurance cost. Better than trying the open market, but not cheap.

And, finally, remember that the Gubmint only matches 5%. It would be very difficult to clear over a million on the 5% match. If you gross $100K in your Gubmint Job they will kick in $5K a year. If you will be 30 when you get the gubmint job and you get $5K in match (meaning a $100K salary) than your numbers work. In the computer field, with San Diego locality pay you can get there with a GS13/14 but those are hard to get.

 

[PessOptimist]

…Well after thinking for awhile about why my TSP balance is so much lower than everyone else's in the Share Your TSP Balance thread, I figured out what I'm doing wrong. And I think it was PO's excel chart that made me realize it too, so thank you for that PO! Anyway, my issue is not with any of my methods. It is an issue with my employer. The military does not match contributions to TSP, and it is killing my account growth. I would have almost double the account balance if I were receiving matching contributions. Like probably 95% more. That is HUGE! I have been on the fence over whether I would be staying in or getting out after this contract, and this realization has made the decision easy for me. The only problem is I still have 5 years remaining. I'll get out with 10 years 8 months in and no regrets either way. Why get out when I'm already over the halfway mark to retirement? Because that extra 9 years I would have to stay in would kill my retirement account growth even further. And I will be able to add those years served towards a retirement package with another federal employer anyway. I ran the numbers through a retirement calculator this morning. If I went my whole life without matching contributions, I would miss out on an extra $1.13M!! I can't live with myself knowing that. I have to deal with it for the next 5 years, and I will increase my own allotment to make up for it as much as I can. But all last night and this morning all I could think was, "this sucks."

You’re welcome for the chart.

I never would have dreamed that chart would help someone decide to end a military career. I am sure you have factored in the annuity you would receive for the rest of your life if you stay for at least 20 years. (unless Boghie is right) Sounds like you have five years to check things out and see what the federal employment picture looks like then. Remember, your veteran points are no guarantee of getting hired. Keep in mind that I was extremely lucky to get the job I have. It was all due to the timing which I had no control over. The situation may be very different in five or 15 years from my situation in 1996.

About that medical benefit. Tricare Prime is cheap but not free (in spite of "common knowledge" about military retirees medical plans). At age 65 you get tossed in to Medicare. If you buy Part B Tricare becomes a free wrap around insurance called Tricare for life. Part B premiums are more than double Tricare Prime premiums.

PO

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Me thinks someone is forgetting the retirement check for the rest of their life, which is the primary reason the military does not get matching funds.

If you retire as a master chief, then your effective LIFETIME annuity (basically how you can think of the military retirement) is probably worth in excess of $1.5M (don't have time to figure the exact number).

Just sayin'

 

[Frixxxx]

Me thinks someone is forgetting the retirement check for the rest of their life, which is the primary reason the military does not get matching funds.

If you retire as a master chief, then your effective LIFETIME annuity (basically how you can think of the military retirement) is probably worth in excess of $1.5M (don't have time to figure the exact number).

Just sayin'

And, unlike civilians buying into their retirement annuity, (FERS AND CSRS) the military don't have the additional cost.

 

[WorkFE]

Ruff estimate: For every $100 in monthly income that is approx. $18,000 in investment. If your 20 year retirement check is say $2K a month that would be like having $360K invested. Plus, depending on your age, you will draw that for 20 years prior to when most folks can touch a traditional 401K/TSP. If I got a job after retirement, banked my military retired pay for 20 years, that would be over $480K, before interest accumulation, when I became 59.5.
That does not include my military TSP rollover to my new employers 401K and my contribution plus employer match for 20 Years.
Plus all the cool retiree bennies.
Lots to think about.

 

[bmneveu]

Thanks for all the input guys! It is a lot to think about. Good thing I have 5 years to figure it out

 

[burrocrat]

congratulations on your #9 autotracker finish and excellent returns for 2014, you beat the market, that's something to be proud of. i'm gonna be watching you.

forget what charlie sheen means when he says it, you're winning man.

 

[bmneveu]

Starting yesterday, I've increased my monthly contributions by almost double. I made rank and am also moving to a more expensive area, so I'm using some of that money to beef up my TSP. I won't feel it if I never had it. Pay your future self first.

 

[nasa1974]

Starting yesterday, I've increased my monthly contributions by almost double. I made rank and am also moving to a more expensive area, so I'm using some of that money to beef up my TSP. I won't feel it if I never had it. Pay your future self first.

Congratulations on the promotion.

 

[bmneveu]

Not sure if it's been mentioned yet but 2063 looks like a resistance level we need to clear and close above decisively to break this lull period. As of this writing we are at 2067, which is great, but closing here or higher would be even better. I consider this very bullish and am not getting out unless we fall below that level today.

Edit: My numbers are referring to the S&P 500.