Birchtree's Account Talk

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ferdinand is the Disney cartoon bull that liked to smell the flowers rather than fight in the bull arena. And his greatest asset is his bull manure - it makes everything grow especially portfolios. Snort.

It was a book first! not in any way related to disney. :cheesy:

 

[airlift]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Fabijo,
That's good research. We'll still keep lifting his animal spirits by serving the best food!

 

[fabijo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Fabijo,
That's good research.

No research done. My kids have that book!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ferdy says we only got nine spending days left to buy stocks. Ignore the top. We only got nine days and a lot to do. So this afternoon I bought: ABB, AKS, RES, CXG, WAB, HXL. We could do more but there is always tomorrow - and maybe cheaper prices.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

From the Lincoln Electric annual report. While manufacturers have recently trimmed production due to auto maker cut backs and other weakness, many are benefiting from stronger growth overseas. Lincoln Electric Holdings is a Cleveland maker of machines and materials for industrial welding, booked direct exports of $112 million for the year's first nine months, up from $70 million last year.

In recent years, the company has seen demand from China and the Middle East soar, particularly for oil and gas projects. Vincent Petrella, Lincoln's chief financial officer, said new orders have also increased in Europe this year. Europe for the first time in a number of years is showing good strength. The recent combination of falling imports and rising exports, if sustained, could add as much as 1% economic growth in the fourth quarter.

Ferdy says we need to do a little more buying today - waiting on the trigger.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Only eight more days to stock shop: bought CGC, HBP, GDI, KEX, UGI, GT today. Will get my DCA this Friday. Snort with bells.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm going in at 1400 hours and buying: GLT, OI, HAL, LTD, AME, BW. Some more to burn tomorrow. Nows that DMA has resurfaced I can return his shoes and soap. You never get the skunk smell off your body.

 

[Spaf]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Now I have some valuable information regarding Japan economy. If you are an I funder who works strictly off charts you will not be interested - this is fundamental information. Read at your own risk.
From TWSJ by Andrew Morse on 12/15/06 - there is no link. Unless there is something on http://wsj.com/onlinetoday

After a long retreat from the global mergers and acquisitions scene in the 1990s and early 2000s, Japanese companies are once again on the hunt. With the population of Japan expected to shrink rapidly in coming years, many of them are looking to tap into growing overseas markets quickly by acquiring existing companies. So far this year, Japanese firms have bought 294 foreign companies for a total of $18.1 billion - more than in all of 2005 and double the figure in 2004.

Sectors that could see more Japanese acquisitions include the car-parts industry, as suppliers to the big Japanese auto makers look for ways to get closer to their main customers' overseas factories. Already Japanese firms such as engine-parts maker Asahi Tec Corp. and bearings maker NTN Corp. have bought companies in the U.S. and Europe. Last week, Japanese tire giant Bridgestone Corp. said it would pay $1.05 billion for Bandag Inc., an Iowa company that makes equipment for retreading tires, a new area for Bridgestone.

Japan's big banks and financial conglomerates are scouting rapidly growing markets in the U.S., China and else where for growth opportunities. Brokerage firm giant Nomura Holdings Inc. recently spent $1.2 billion to acquire electronic stockbroker Instinet Inc. The deal gave Nomura access to both new markets and new trading technologies. There is a pronounced increase in the interest Japanese companies have in looking for overseas acquisitions, particularly in the U.S.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

May I offer a wee bit more from the same source?

The new round of Japanese deal making is markedly different from the one that peaked in 1990, when Japanese acquirers purchased 429 foreign companies for a combined $25.3 billion. These days, more Japanese companies are thinking strategically about how an acquisition will fit into their operations. Japan's new acquisitiveness comes in a banner year for mergers and acquisitions. M&A value globally has topped $3 trillion,the second-highest on record, after the dot-com fueled deal making frenzy in 2000. Foreign buyers have flocked to Europe, where many industries haven't consolidated to the extent they have in the U.S., and to Britain in particular.

In contrast to the 1980s, Japan is finding itself more welcome in foreign markets today. That's partly because Japan has opened its markets more widely to imports since then, helping to eliminate a major source of friction with its trading partners. Though it runs a trade surplus with the U.S. which reached $8.3 billion in October, Japan has been replaced by China's trade surplus with U.S. in October was $24.3 billion. Japanese companies are also more globally attuned than before, aware that their futures depend on being able to grow overseas and are careful not to disturb political sensibilities abroad.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The Japanese savings rate. The Cabinet Office gives warning that the once-lauded saving rate, which peaked at 23% of household income in 1973, is now down to a western-like 2.7%. With retirement beckoning for so many, there is a limit to how far Japan's ageing people are prepared to raid their piggy banks today. And since consumer spending accounts for 57% of Japan's GDP, growth will remain puny until companies spread more of their (manure) profits around.

http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story id=8459480 apparently this link does not work - sorry

Try: Walking on eggshells - Bank of Japan on their home search - that works.

 

[Remo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

So Birch,
Break it down for me....Is this part of the reason the I fund is doing so well? Historical returns for the I-fund in 2004 shows 20% growth and 13.63% in 2005. If your numbers are correct, which looks to be the case,(Is there ever any doubt?) will the I fund continue in a positive direction or do you see a slow down? I think, luckily for us, the I- fund is distributed rather nicely across Europe and the Pacific Rim countries.

I'm sure you are aware of this but I find it very interesting:

EAFE Index​

Country Composition
December 31, 2005​

Percent Number of
Country of Index*
%of index #of companies held​

Europe​

Austria 0.4 13
Belgium 1.1 20
Denmark 0.8 19
Finland 1.4 21
France 9.3 62
Germany 6.8 50
Greece 0.6 21
Ireland 0.8 17
Italy 3.8 39
Netherlands 3.4 26
Norway 0.7 18
Portugal 0.3 11
Spain 3.7 33
Sweden 2.4 47
Switzerland 6.9 38
United Kingdom 24.0 155
Europe 66.5% 590
​

Australasia/Far East​

Australia 5.2 83
Hong Kong 1.6 41
Japan 25.6 369
New Zealand 0.2 13
Singapore 0.8 41
Australasia/Far East 33.5% 547
​

Total EAFE Index 100.0% 1137​

*Based on the total market value of the country relative to the total market
value of the index.​

Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International​

EAFE Top Ten Holdings​

(as of December 31, 2005)​

Company Percent of Index​

2.18
HSBC Holdings (GB) 1.77
Toyota Motor Corporation 1.47
GlaxoSmithKline 1.44
Total 1.37
Vodafone Group 1.33
Royal Dutch Petroleum Company 1.21
Novartis 1.19
Nestlé 1.18
Roche Holding AG 1.03

Respectfully,
Remo​

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The I fund will continue in a positive direction but will not outperform the way it has in 2006. The dollar has double bottomed going back to 1994 and is probably starting a secular move back to 120. That movement will detract from the gains and I think some money will come back to this country. We are competing against the fickle hedgefunds and they can bolt enmass any time they get nervous. My money is on the dark and dangerous C fund. The S&P 500 will garner the gains in 2007, IMHO.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

A simple model Don Rissmiller, our Chief Economist, and strategy team developed based on these factors suggests that S&P P/Es should be closer to 21x than their current 15x. As bullish as we are on the prospects for the U.S. equity markets in the short to intermediate term, we are most bullish on Japan over the next decade.

http://www.strategasrp.com/pdf/isv061215.pdf

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Shall we deliver a wheel barrel full of the good stuff to Russell and Nnuut - they've decided not to join in the Lemming parade today. Oh, that's right, we have more work to do. Let's see if we can get lower prices before we do our buying today. Watch for the surprise at 1400 hours - we can push this bull higher. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Just completed my buys for today a little earlier than anticipated: bought KWR, POL, CSK, RDC, ABM, SGP, LMS. Looking forward to tomorrow to add several more.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

With its benchmark index having rebounded back to record territory, China's stock market is finally reflecting the broader strides of the world's fourth-largest economy - and starting to contribute meaningfully to its rapid growth. The Shanghai Composite Index has topped its' previous high of 2242.42, reached in June 2001. In 18 months, Shanghai's benchmark stock index has more than regained the ground it lost during a four-year slump that erased half of its value and soured China's individual investors on stocks.

As recently as July 2005 the index dipped below 1000, a level it hadn't seen since 1997. But this year, China's Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges are the best performing major markets in the world, pushing total capitalization of the two to just shy of $1 trillion. Once seemingly irrelevant to China's economy, the market is becoming the important tool that it is in more-developed countries. Chinese companies will have raised a record 20% of their funding from stocks and bonds this year, whereas a few years ago they obtained nearly all financing from banks.

http://www.wsj.com/onlinetoday

It won't be long and they will be here as tourists spending like the Brits and Japanese. The more companies an investor owns the greater the chances of a premium buyout. All mine are for sale - loyalty is only worth a quarter point.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I was under the assumption that the vociferate debate between myself and Griffin had terminated but apparently it still embers. I will spend my Christian day in solemnity and take this opportunity to close my final chapter of this debate. Perhaps the Birchtree will no longer be subjected to: tirades, no more visibly displayed avarice and jealousy, no more unsubstantiated innuendoes, no more conjectures, no further assiduous and conspicuous behaviors, no more malignity, no more mendacious and fatuous comments, no more heinous rebukes (and I'll be careful here myself), no more criticisms that are vengence based, and especially please no more flatulence. Now that you know I have temerity let there be politeness and respect on the board for all investing strategies. As a side note there were 700 views in the last 24 hours without our debate being profiled. I'm ready to facilitate mutual peace. But I still have this ominous gut feeling but I'll remain constrained within limits of decent behavior and subtle arrogance.

We did get good results on inflation today - unrecognized by the market so far. The PCE was unchanged from October - that's a 2.2 percent year over year increase - very comfortable for the Fed. They will meet again Jan. 31'07.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Just completed my buying for this week: bought SXC, PCR, CPX, CF, IT, CMC. My theory is the more you're in the greater the potential win. I plan to sell a beauty next week and reinvest the profits for one more round of wall flower collecting. I just can't help being bullish - may even get my TSP buy with my DCA at $15.60. It'll only get more expensive next month.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I guess before I totally acquiesce I would like to reiterate that my total percentage is greater than currently listed because of DCA. When you take into account purchases made way back at $13.55 forward, that makes a nice contribution. I must refrain from telling you what it is because it can't be proved, but common sense will tell you it's better than 16%. The allocator only takes into account the IFTs - so to forego any further acrimonious diatribe it will remain unknown. I will tell you that if you decide to ulilize a disciplined approach to DCA it is a redeemer of mistakes, but you have to be willing to dump money down a large dark hole on accassion. Time in the market with DCA often can be more rewarding than timing the market. Most of our illustrious timing leaders spend over half of their time in the G fund collecting a penny - I'd prefer to collect more undervalued shares, that's my sacrifice. Sleigh Bells.