Birchtree's Account Talk

[Spaf]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Spaf,

What was that crucial tiny can opener called - a p38 or something like that. Todays generation has it made with the MRE packets - some good food.

Exactly!.....P38!

Ur right! Now they got some good food! A far cry from powdered eggs and hamburgers from a box, coated with preservative!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Currently the projected profit gain for the SPX has risen to 12.3% for this quarter. That will mark the 12th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, the longest streak of double-digit profit gains since a 13-quarter run in the early 1990s. But my friends it gets potentially even better.

Analysts are thinking the gains will accelerate. They forecast a 15.3% jump in the third quarter and a 14.8% increase in the fourth, marking a 14-quarter streak of double-digit gains. For all of next year, they expect profits to grow 10.8%, still well above the average 7% that companies have recorded since the 1970s.

FWIW this is cool - at Rootiz Korea, a real-estate brokerage firm in Seoul, Korea, Chief Executive Lee Seung Ick says demand has been growing rapidly for his subscription service, which provides information about overseas real estate. We had 1,000 members last year, but they increased to 2,000 by May and 6,000 now. While his clients are buying houses, condos and villas all over the world, more than 50% of his clients are specifically targeting the U.S., which is perceived as safe and a bargain at current exchange rates. The won has risen more than 20%.against the dollar in two years, making investments less expensive when translated into Korean currency. With our competitive dollar we are for sale - come one and all.

 

[TiCKed]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

With our competitive dollar we are for sale - come one and all.

Hmmmm....Wonder if I can get my agency to start paying me in some other currency.

Nah. With my luck, they'd pick Iraqi currency.

Thanks for the note of optimism in this hole of dread. Hope you're RIGHT!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

There seems to be a lot of noise about the trade deficit from some nonbelievers - you are now in the no spin zone.

Between 1985 and the start of 1988, the dollar fell 37%. The fall in the value of the dollar turned around the trade deficit. Merchandise exports rose more than 40% in two years while the corresponding imports increased at only half that pace. Since imports were initially much larger than exports, it took a few years for the trade deficit to decline. But by 1989 it was down by more than 40% from its peak. The decline of the dollar in the '80s also had no adverse effect on economic activity. The rise in national saving that was needed to reduce net imports happened without higher unemployment. Thanks to the improved trade balance, aggregate demand increased and the unemployment rate came down from 7.5% in 1984 to 5.5% in 1988. Check the record, Wizard. Bond yields also fell and the stock market rose sharply, with the S&P index up 40% from 1985 to 1988. Will it happen again, yes is my opinion. It does show that it is possible to have a sharp dollar decline with no adverse effect on inflation. The Fed is watching while in pause mode.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Took a little more profit of one of my oils today - that's always a sacrifice - and spread the manure around a number of wall flowers. Sold some GI and bought: ILA, BW, AP, CEM, HBP, CNH, LPX, LFB, AG, and most closed on their lows for the day. This bottoming process may encourage me to do some more buying a bargain prices. There is always a silver thread - snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I can't stanz it no more - I'm going to practice what I preach: what's easy to do is almost always the wrong thing to do. And what's hard to do is almost always what makes you money. I just sold a pipeline stock (STR) and have spread more manure into the portfolio. I bought MLI, DHT, UGI, SMP, SR, SXI, RKT, more AG, more AP, more AZZ, more CNH, AIT, TEN, OI. These wall flowers will eventually bloom once the fire moves on. I will probably do some more next week - don't want to be greedy for more pain, right? Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Don't be facetious and tell me the Wizard is toast - he has more lives than a cat. Our remedial sessions were just starting to show minute progress.

Now I have abundant freedom to be fallacious - so here it comes. All the stuff you never wanted to know about the C fund components.

Companies in the S&P 500 stock index invested $100.2 billion in their own shares in the first quarter, up 22 percent from a year earlier. Buybacks have steadily gained steam since late 2004 to the point where they now exceed dividend payments to shareholders. S&P companies last year spent $349 billion on buybacks versus $202 billion in dividends. Standard and Poor's expects more than $90 billion in stock buybacks in the second quarter. Are these folks wasting their money?

Corporate balance sheets have not been in this position for four decades and excess cash flow hasn't been this strong for at least the same amount of time. In the past 13 months, General Mills increased its quarterly dividend three times as part of its goal to attain double-digit total shareholder returns. While more companies are paying dividends, the momentum is clearly with buybacks. The total dollars devoted to dividends by S&P 500 companies in the 12 months ended March 31 grew 12 percent with the year before versus a 73 percent increase in the amount spent on stock repurchases.

From St. Paul Pioneer Press, 6/16 by Sheryl Jean

This is what longer term will power the S&P 500 to 1700 and beyond. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I was going to wait and pull the trigger tomorrow but actually there is enough blood in the streets to quench my thirst for equities. I liquidated my positions in GI and PDE - both energy related and bought: FBN, GLT, HD, GE, GT, KRO, LZB, LZ, LYO, MOT, NL, RPM. Chances are they will all be even cheaper tomorrow - but perhaps Uncle Ben says something sweet and up we go. I'm there for the ride, if not, well it's a long year yet with more buying to do.

 

[ocean]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

FBN, GLT, HD, GE, GT, KRO, LZB, LZ, LYO, MOT, NL, RPM.
I'm there for the ride, if not, well it's a long year yet with more buying to do.

Looks like another Warren Buffett is in the making (in a smaller scale) -- one who knows how to pick the bottom. Amazing, look at the stock list you have here, mostly are 52 week low or near and some of it are big name companies. Way to go, BT.

Ocean

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

In the first five months of 2006, Japan, China and Brazil increased their purchases of U.S. machinery by 22%, 16% and 31%, respectively, from a year earlier. Most of what U.S. capital-goods makers and exporters are selling is, in effect, productivity.

 

[robo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree,


I read this on another board. Any thoughts on the, " Engineered Pre-Election Rally " comment....

"" I heard the last few minutes of the Radio Guru. He said don't sell this rally.
He believes it's the beginning of an engineered pre-election rally.""

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

This is the third Uncle Ben rally and may be the charm for follow through - many shorts will undoubtedly try to cover soon - the longer they wait the more it will cost. I'll take any rally I can get - snort. Some of this accumulated negativity goes back to the lows in March 2003 - leave them at the station.

 

[rokid]

Question: why not total stock market?

Birch,

I agree with your buy-and-hold, DCA sentiment. In addition, you've, obviously, been very successful assembling a "power" account (you've got way more $$ than I do). However, how come you don't hold any S Fund, i.e. hold the entire stock market? Large and small caps?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Rokid,

My wife owns the small cap fund and the international fund in her defined contribution plan. This strategy allows me to leverage my money into the C fund which I believe will start to show outperformance. I've only been waiting for over two years for this to happen. My plan is to gently take her out of small caps and then leverage her 100% into international. In the meantime we DCA and remain hedged as a family unit. This then allows me to concentrate on market direction - snort. And the primary reason I may have more money invested than you do is because I'm no doubt a lot older - time is the great equalizer, both in grade and savings.

 

[rokid]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,

Thanks for the feedback.

No, you're a lot smarter. I think we're probably the same age. I didn't pay much attention to TSP because I'm CSRS. However, I wish I would have started contributing earlier and had some idea of what I was doing.

Oh well, better late than never.:cheesy:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ocean,

My CSX has just declared a 2 for 1 split effective 8/18. I'll sell you some - even though the trains took it on the chin today. The slow grower group thinks transports will be hurt - I'll need transports to confirm the Dow industrials for a Dow Theory Primary confirmation. The Dow Utilities will be pushing new all time highs in the next couple of weeks. Did you notice where the Techmeister said hold tight? He could be in transition.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Rokid,

The nice thing about the equities markets is that you don't have to be smart to participate and win. Alot of smart people absolutely cannot play the markets because of the emotional element. Access good information and cut your own trail and destiny. For example, I know a great deal about the SPX and am just waiting for the information to become standard fare. Once the world decides its the place to be I'll be more than likely easing on out. It was fun watching some of our members chase the I fund up to $20.95 - and when she landed on $17.73 it wasn't popular anymore - but my wife was a buyer at that lower level in her international.

 

[ocean]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ocean,

My CSX has just declared a 2 for 1 split effective 8/18. I'll sell you some - even though the trains took it on the chin today. The slow grower group thinks transports will be hurt - I'll need transports to confirm the Dow industrials for a Dow Theory Primary confirmation. The Dow Utilities will be pushing new all time highs in the next couple of weeks. Did you notice where the Techmeister said hold tight? He could be in transition.

Birch,

CSX.. Well if you had this stock since the end of last year, man you've got it made. 50% returns according to the chart (from yahoo finance site). The stock went down 4% today with profit jumps. The market will always do this. Good number, stock goes down; so so number, stock crash. It happened to me with CREE last week and BRCM today. Just can't do anything but hold it tight I guess. CSX, you can't sell it to me becuase I will try to buy some tomorrow and hope I can rub off some of the luck from you on your tip. If it hits $66, I will be a seller.

As the other day when I made comments on your thread around 5 or 6 am before the market started, I looked at your new purchase and realized that you did buy a lot of stocks on its low such as HD (which I own), and MOT. I was going to follow you with MOT purchase but was busy that day. Well market went up 212 point that day and MOT went up slighly. Look at today MOT's day high is $21.75. Well, I missed once and I certainly don’t want to miss twice.

Ocean

 

[Birchtree]

Be right and sit tight.

The minutes from the latest FOMC meeting suggest Fed officials' views on inflation were more sanguine than their tough talk implied. "Contained inflation expectations, the abatement of upward pressure from past increases in energy and other commodity prices, and the slowing in the growth of economic activity that was under way were expected to contribute to a moderation in core inflation in coming quarters."

I'm going to take it on faith to hold the line and sit tight and wait for the resumption of the secular mega bull trend.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ocean,

Hope you get your 5 points out of CSX. It was in the $61 range today after the hit from yesterday. Most splits provide an opportunity to do a little more nibbling and most of the time they slide a couple points under the post split price if the market has forbearance. I'm in back in 4/04 and 5/04 with prices of 31, 32, 43, 49. A split will double my shares and bring me back to $30. I need a little more accumulation at or around that price. This stock has a long way to run yet before I give it up - maybe another split next year - then we can take some off the top. 5 points - I want the next 25 points, thanx.