Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

I just checked my oceanic account and with the Dow -150 I'm ahead by $3K thanks to my energy holdings - but I doubt that it will last into the close unless we turn around some. So in about an hour I'm headed to the back yard for more lawn rehab. There is nothing I plan to do today except absorb the pain and reinvest my dividends.

 

[amoeba]

Re: If it quacks, it's a duck, if you leave - its a bail

I think the general opinion is still Bull. I have to side with JTH its never good to sell on a big down day and even if you were reacting to technicals it does look like panic selling. Sorry.

There aren't sides; there are facts. JTH bailed on 3/3...I waited until yesterday...he's the one who bailed, not me. I was patient. I usually am not.....and sometimes.....as in Egypt; I pared gains.

It doesn't matter what type of selling, selling is selling. And this isn't emotional selling....it is a real event....with real market consequences; actually - several of them (altho a total catastrophe in Japan may be at the top); the others being oil, and a cliff-drop in housing starts, today. There were also technicals that were significantly breached, the 50 EMA on the SPY, which JTH himself posted on my thread. So, in addition to forgetting what he did, he was following the same technicals I was.

To be sure.....this drop was not seen coming, and the real fooler was the immediate reaction to the Tsunami/nuclear problems. I felt they were really bad....but the market JUMPED modestly last friday. I think, in hindsight, that was a mixed bag between the tsunami and the retail sales coming in high. Finally, as I said earlier - I had intended to bail monday but missed the deadline; the 3rd (or is it now 4th); multiple percentage negative drop in a row - is no reason to wait for another.

I didn't. I see no bounce coming. This is not a bouncable event. It isn't like oil prices, or some stupid Middle East rally which will come today and be gone tomorrow. That's my impression.

Birch thinks differently; he went to all I-fund. Knock yourself out - to the tune of another -2.44% as we speak. Why did Birch do this? Only he can answer, and I hope he does. We not only learn from our own mistakes, but those of others.

 

[jpcavin]

Isn't fear emotinal?

 

[goforit]

Birchtree i have never posted in your post before but i have been hanging in S 100% since friday 11Mar. been wavering on which way to dump with only one IFT left. the I is loosing the most and right now and the C isn't to far behind. both these funds have lagged behind the S when they were gaining and now i am glad i went to S because the kick in the shorts isn't as bad. i know that what people suggest is only that suggestions and not to do something someone else says when concerned with why people move their TSP around, BUT, i really feel like the I fund is where to jump in because not only has it lead the way in losses it will also have the greatest positive gains when the world gets over the initial shock of all that is in the news. here it is... what do you think and keep it dumb downed for us stupid people. thanks

 

[crws]

Birchtree i have never posted in your post before but i have been hanging in S 100% since friday 11Mar. been wavering on which way to dump with only one IFT left. the I is loosing the most and right now and the C isn't to far behind. both these funds have lagged behind the S when they were gaining and now i am glad i went to S because the kick in the shorts isn't as bad. i know that what people suggest is only that suggestions and not to do something someone else says when concerned with why people move their TSP around, BUT, i really feel like the I fund is where to jump in because not only has it lead the way in losses it will also have the greatest positive gains when the world gets over the initial shock of all that is in the news. here it is... what do you think and keep it dumb downed for us stupid people. thanks

IMO, The I fund isn't going to come back like someone threw a switch and it's all over-
At least the S Fund may benefit from being able to pick up production outside of Japan until things are on the mend.

Watch for when these folks start to return-

And while Japan's investment banking market is famously tough, it's an essential place for large banks to be and can produce hefty fees.

"The foreign banker presence on the ground in Tokyo now is very thin and depending on how long it takes them to return there could be lasting implications of that," said one banker. "Every time there's a washout of foreigners in Japan they never quite return in the same numbers."

With bankers joining the growing exodus, private jet operators reported a surge in demand for evacuation flights which sent prices surging as much as a quarter. One jet operator said the cost of flying 14 people to Hong Kong from Tokyo was more than $160,000.

"I got a request yesterday to fly 14 people from Tokyo to Hong Kong, 5 hour 5 minutes trip. They did not care about price," said Jackie Wu, COO of Hong Kong Jet, a newly established private jet subsidiary of China's HNA Group.

 

[amoeba]

It's not that simple

Birchtree i have never posted in your post before but i have been hanging in S 100% since friday 11Mar. been wavering on which way to dump with only one IFT left. the I is loosing the most and right now and the C isn't to far behind. both these funds have lagged behind the S when they were gaining and now i am glad i went to S because the kick in the shorts isn't as bad. i know that what people suggest is only that suggestions and not to do something someone else says when concerned with why people move their TSP around, BUT, i really feel like the I fund is where to jump in because not only has it lead the way in losses it will also have the greatest positive gains when the world gets over the initial shock of all that is in the news. here it is... what do you think and keep it dumb downed for us stupid people. thanks

you're not stupid. what you say (in bold) is why the market hasn't gone down further - that's exactly what the permabulls are saying; that's hopeful... But now....a dose of reality.

This type of event is not JUST emotion. It is real, it already has enormous consequences, and much greater additional risks of absolute armageddon, than, say - the gulf oil spill, or Katrina - That stuff is peanuts and not worth comparing. The last "real" event was the collapse of Lehman Bros. and the mortgage system shortly thereafter. Even then, there was more information than there is now. And that lack of information....adds fear to what already is justified fear.

So what you need to "get over" is the mindset that this is all about "emotion"; yes...emotion is part of it....but that is not all.

If you go back to the beginning of our I fund, however, you'll find that bounces and pullbacks are not like a yo-yo on a string; I-fund has sometimes outperformed, sometimes underperformed, S-fund has done the same (although pretty good recently); so you can't say that what goes down has the most chance of going up. It might, it might not.

It's not that simple

 

[JTH]

Re: If it quacks, it's a duck, if you leave - its a bail

There aren't sides; there are facts. JTH bailed on 3/3...I waited until yesterday...he's the one who bailed, not me. I was patient. I usually am not.....and sometimes.....as in Egypt; I pared gains.

You're starting to go off the deep end here. I didn't bail on 3/3, I exited the markets taking profits. I then re-entered the markets at a lower entry than my last exit. I'm in the S-Fund right now, i haven't bailed on anything.

 

[amoeba]

Re: If it quacks, it's a duck, if you leave - its a bail

With such optimism that a jumper cable will leave Japan nuthin to worry about except tsunami damage from an 8.9 R quake less than a week ago, I don't know what's holding me back. I just can't pull the trigger quite yet; forgive me for my hesitancy:

"Nuclear plant operators trying to avoid complete reactor meltdowns said Thursday that they were close to finishing a new power line that could end Japan's crisis, but several ominous signs have also emerged: a surge in radiation levels, unexplained white smoke and spent fuel rods that U.S. officials said might be on the verge of spewing more radioactive material"

Just a spew of "......unexplained white smoke......" from a damaged nuclear reactor. And that's the good news.

 

[Birchtree]

Hey, things are good - I've got tomatoes growing, beans up, corn up, radishes up and some carrots up. And the market will turn up - perhaps tomorrow. The put/call ratio says panic and we've only had a 6.2% down side consolidation so far - so let'em sell until their hearts content because they'll only have to buy everything back. Oh, I forgot to mention that "Justified" is on at 2200 hours on fx - now I can enjoy my evening.

 

[Birchtree]

As strange as this may sound, I'm as cool as a cucumber - no fear here. I can take the pain because I have made my plan with my lamb chop portfolio and I'll wait for the possible consequences. Right now I'm a long way away from any margin calls - so spank me.

 

[amoeba]

that's because your not in japan...here's the latest:

As strange as this may sound, I'm as cool as a cucumber - no fear here. I can take the pain because I have made my plan with my lamb chop portfolio and I'll wait for the possible consequences. Right now I'm a long way away from any margin calls - so spank me.

"The chief of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission said Wednesday that all the water is gone from one of the spent fuel pools at Japan's most troubled nuclear plant, raising the possibility of widespread nuclear fallout"

That is just about as off the chart risky as you can get.....how does anyone interpret or buy into such a mess? (answer: they're not going to).

 

[Geaux4it]

I understand exactly where you are coming from Birch-

The way I look at this drop is like a dog shaking off fleas. Most who can't take the pain have bailed, or will soon if the decline continues tomorrow.

That's fine. Just what 'they' want.

Then the ride up is much more refreshing no?

I feel like Slim Pickens for the moment however.

-Geaux

 

[vegasmith]

I understand exactly where you are coming from Birch-

The way I look at this drop is like a dog shaking off fleas. Most who can't take the pain have bailed, or will soon if the decline continues tomorrow.

That's fine. Just what 'they' want.

Then the ride up is much more refreshing no?

I feel like Slim Pickens for the moment however.

-Geaux

That's one way of looking at it. Another would be.. I'm simply not interested in paying $30 for a steak today. I'd rather save my buying power and grab up two $15 steaks tomorrow.

 

[Geaux4it]

That's one way of looking at it. Another would be.. I'm simply not interested in paying $30 for a steak today. I'd rather save my buying power and grab up two $15 steaks tomorrow.

I hear ya- In a perfect world, perfect things happen. However, like most others, you will have to settle for a $5.00 hamburger at some point. It's like death and taxes.

-Geaux

 

[Birchtree]

The bus travels faster with fewer on board. Here comes the rebound - hold on.

 

[weatherweenie]

The bus travels faster with fewer on board. Here comes the rebound - hold on.

Bring it Birch! :nuts:

 

[FAB1]

The bus travels faster with fewer on board. Here comes the rebound - hold on.

Thats true.

But im sorry you got so far behind - hope the bounce is not only a good
one but not some sorry dead cat.

 

[Birchtree]

Bespoke says 50% of NYSE stocks are below their 50 DMA - so a bounce is due. Only we may just keep on going into next week. Your tracker position is vulnerable in case you are not aware.

 

[jpcavin]

Thats true.

But im sorry you got so far behind - hope the bounce is not only a good
one but not some sorry dead cat.

The cat dropped pretty hard so it should bounce quite nicely.

 

[Birchtree]

Currently my oceanic account is only $18K short of gaining back my devaluation from the last three days. A Dow of +200 may boost me over the hump - waiting for the nitro to kick it way up to +300. Some excellent fundamental statistics today - the future belongs to those that dare to step forward.