Birchtree's Account Talk

[FAB1]

Amoeba has locked himself into a -3% loss COB. He'll have 9 more months to get back to even.

Yeah he seems to really be fixated on the Japan reactor damage as going to dictate the movments in the market in a major way. He is not the only one and that same sentiment is all over the internet.

I dont know if the buyback was on heavy or lite volume but its significant that the S fund recovered almost all this morning's losses. Is this the behavior of a market thats "done for"?

IMO the fear is more likely to negatively affect things than the repercussions of the earthquake. But thats pretty typical.

Im waiting for someone to say I gotta a lotta room to talk, seeing I have nearly 2/3 of my TSP parked -- but I moved it long before the quake, just following a subscriber...

 

[amoeba]

Birchtree riding it to the bottom, as always.

Amoeba has locked himself into a -3% loss COB. He'll have 9 more months to get back to even.

Read my post again, and check the afternoon action; if you did, you'd see there is the usual fake-out-late-day-buying, and....I have another IFT, I could go all in tomorrow if I felt like it. Not like you....you toasted your first IFT on increasing risk. Knife-catching. Hoping. What's your next one? S-fund? How do you limit losses? by increasing risk during a down draft?
.....you're just about alone on that one buddy.....

 

[Birchtree]

I don't usually try to limit my losses unless I'm in an emergency type situation - I accept my losses as a badge of courage. Even today I had minimal losses in comparison to the size of my account - no need to cut and run. Remember the market discounts the future and the future is still bright as far as I'm concerned - Japan not withstanding.

 

[FAB1]

Re: Birchtree riding it to the bottom, as always.

Read my post again, and check the afternoon action; if you did, you'd see there is the usual fake-out-late-day-buying, and....I have another IFT, I could go all in tomorrow if I felt like it. Not like you....you toasted your first IFT on increasing risk. Knife-catching. Hoping. What's your next one? S-fund? How do you limit losses? by increasing risk during a down draft?
.....you're just about alone on that one buddy.....

I wish you luck, I really do - choosing an exit is less risky than timing an entry in a market like this one. Some people here may have mis-timed the bottom of this dip but if you panic sell too soon you can miss the big recovery day, the one that jumps 5-6%.

 

[WorkFE]

If I remember correctly these big dips with tiny buy back afternoons is what gave people hope in 08 only be disappointed over and over again. No shame in going to safety.
If 3 months from now we are looking at 666 we will have missed a big opportunity to BUY LOW.
It is what it is.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Then those of us are back to DCA again... and more long term recovery

 

[Birchtree]

You got the tracker # wrong - amoeba is at tracker #669 and headed lower. (pun intended).

 

[amoeba]

BWAAAA; HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I wish you luck, I really do - choosing an exit is less risky than timing an entry in a market like this one. Some people here may have mis-timed the bottom of this dip but if you panic sell too soon you can miss the big recovery day, the one that jumps 5-6%.

I was thinking that big day for the last 3 weeks. And that was when the market was selling off on baloney. This is real.

A tsunami hits japan, 3 reactors explode, radionuclides leak. 180,000 people evacuate. There's no power, HP, Toyota, etc. suspend operations, and you think I'm gonna miss some deadcat of 5-6% tomorrow. You think this is gonna solve itself; that this is an emotional sell.

That's a good one. Thanks for the laugh.

 

[amoeba]

yes it is

If I remember correctly these big dips with tiny buy back afternoons is what gave people hope in 08 only be disappointed over and over again. No shame in going to safety.
If 3 months from now we are looking at 666 we will have missed a big opportunity to BUY LOW.
It is what it is.

I remember that year. I ended up #8 and got a T-shirt. Birch was somewhere south of -42%.

I have another IFT. Mine is a day late, technical move based on the 100 day EMA in the SPY that everyone is tracking. I am not buying until the 20 DMA inflects; well - at least the 10 DMA.

 

[jpcavin]

Re: yes it is

I remember that year. I ended up #8 and got a T-shirt. Birch was somewhere south of -42%.

I have another IFT. Mine is a day late, technical move based on the 100 day EMA in the SPY that everyone is tracking. I am not buying until the 20 DMA inflects; well - at least the 10 DMA.

When all is said and done, who is closer to 2M? Just my 2 cents.

 

[JTH]

I hope you're right J, my 100% I fund allocation is making me vomit this week. At this point I have to stay committed and ride it out, I refuse to lock in this loss...my yearly return may suffer, but I just can't lock it in.

That's how I feel, I'll be dammed if I'm gonna give back for a loss. I've lost track of how many I've seen bail at the first sign of trouble, only to watch the markets bounce back within a few weeks.

 

[Birchtree]

Cramer is pushing coal this evening - BTU, ACI. That'll help me hold my oceanic support.

 

[Birchtree]

"Will the Fed hint at QE3 and surprise the bears?"

http://www.safehaven.com/article/20288/will-the-fed-hint-at-qe3-and-surprise-the-bears

 

[Birchtree]

"I believe the bull is still with us another year or so, thus, I focus on buying when the right signal is given."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article26926.html

 

[WorkFE]

Re: yes it is

I am not buying until the 20 DMA inflects; well - at least the 10 DMA.

You know you hate sitting on the pad. It is burning your @ss:laugh:

 

[amoeba]

what talk are we walking?

That's how I feel, I'll be dammed if I'm gonna give back for a loss. I've lost track of how many I've seen bail at the first sign of trouble, only to watch the markets bounce back within a few weeks.

I'll say you lost track:

you bailed yourself, on 3/3, you didn't wait no few weeks, and the market hasn't bounced since. Congrads on the ranking, and especially for pounding birchtree to dust, but you didn't get there by walking that talk.

 

[jpcavin]

Re: what talk are we walking?

I'll say you lost track:

you bailed yourself, on 3/3, you didn't wait no few weeks, and the market hasn't bounced since. Congrads on the ranking, and especially for pounding birchtree to dust, but you didn't get there by walking that talk.

Seriously people. Can we just share a group hug?

 

[burrocrat]

Re: what talk are we walking?

Seriously people. Can we just share a group hug?

no thanks, i'm monogamous.

 

[Mista_Magee]

Re: what talk are we walking?

Seriously people. Can we just share a group hug?

No, it's better this way.

 

[JTH]

Re: what talk are we walking?

I'll say you lost track:

you bailed yourself, on 3/3, you didn't wait no few weeks, and the market hasn't bounced since. Congrads on the ranking, and especially for pounding birchtree to dust, but you didn't get there by walking that talk.

Hold up there a sec. I didn't bail the markets on 3/3, I left the markets because my goals had been met, there's a difference. Under TSP, leaving the markets on a huge downday is a classic mistake, one you've made more often than I can count.

3 March: Entered G-Fund. The night before I had decided to make an exit, only if I thought I could escape with more than 1.37% This would (at a minimum) afford me the opportunity to outperform the G-Fund for the month should I decide to stay out of stocks for the remainder of March. It was a calculated risk that paid off and I'm happy with the outcome, having made .67% more than my lowest expectation. A 5 day investment in the S-Fund yielded a 3.04% gain.
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