Birchtree's Account Talk

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Good job JTH. I take money serious too and you blew by me like I was standing still. I'm hoping BT keeps from bailing because this pain is hard to take!
 
tom1tom1 said:
Good job JTH. I take money serious too and you blew by me like I was standing still. I'm hoping BT keeps from bailing because this pain is hard to take!
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Thanks Tom, I'm just trying to point out the common mistakes many of us make when we first come here, me included. In a bull market, severe down days often retrace the majority of the loss.
 
If it quacks, it's a duck, if you leave - its a bail

You can't call me bailing after waiting 3 weeks and leaving after breaking a technical barrier, and call yourself not bailing after bailing after a mere 3 days following the first leg down. You caught a deadcat. To me, the term bailing means you don't wait it out.

Your 3 day wait doesn't make my 3 week wait a bailer. It makes you the bailer.

It also makes you smarter, and richer, than me (it's a compliment, not a criticism).

So we're in what kind of market (bull, bear, secular, unknown) now?
 
Re: If it quacks, it's a duck, if you leave - its a bail

I never called you (per say) a bailer. If you had a price already planned out and made an exit based on that price being broken, that's different than bailing because you are having a bad day and fear is ruling your world. It's all about planning your work and working your plan.

Off the 3 month time-frame we've retraced 75% I'd call that bearish. But on the 6 month window we've retraced just over 25% so I'm still bullish. I'm down .81% from my entry, I'm prepared to absorb some pain here, perhaps down to 1230 if need be. It's concivable I can make an exit tomorrow, but only if I feel I can escape with profit beyond my entry point. Either ways I hope it works out for everyone, it's a tough month.
 
Re: If it quacks, it's a duck, if you leave - its a bail

amoeba said:
You can't call me bailing after waiting 3 weeks and leaving after breaking a technical barrier, and call yourself not bailing after bailing after a mere 3 days following the first leg down. You caught a deadcat. To me, the term bailing means you don't wait it out.

Your 3 day wait doesn't make my 3 week wait a bailer. It makes you the bailer.

It also makes you smarter, and richer, than me (it's a compliment, not a criticism).

So we're in what kind of market (bull, bear, secular, unknown) now?
Click to expand...

I think the general opinion is still Bull. I have to side with JTH its never good to sell on a big down day and even if you were reacting to technicals it does look like panic selling. Sorry.
 
Re: what talk are we walking?

FAB1 said:
No newbies referrees, please.

We are all OK. This is what we do, there is no cussing, well not much mostly. :D
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Newbie? You just called me a newbie?? I am a TSP Talker, thank you very much. Look it up! :cheesy:
 
My opinion is that we are in a cyclical bull market withing a secular bear market. We are currently in the second half of the secular bear market and we should be in a secular bull market around 2015-2018. That's my opinion and I'm sticking to it! :D
 
jpcavin said:
My opinion is that we are in a cyclical bull market withing a secular bear market. We are currently in the second half of the secular bear market and we should be in a secular bull market around 2015-2018. That's my opinion and I'm sticking to it! :D
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OK Birchtree :D

Sorry about the newbie slip.
 
jpcavin said:
My opinion is that we are in a cyclical bull market withing a secular bear market. We are currently in the second half of the secular bear market and we should be in a secular bull market around 2015-2018. That's my opinion and I'm sticking to it! :D
Click to expand...

could you be more specific?

i've got a couple of trades on today and that hole 2018 thing is cornfusing me.

watch out boys, kicking it in the nuts ain't gonna help here, i think she's wearing a cup.
 
Thanks guys. I almost feel like one of you. Just waiting on Birch to weigh in on my comments. :D

Burro, 2015-1018 are years..;)
 
IMO we are in a continuing mega trend secular bull market that started officially in 1982. We've recently had two cyclical bear markets and now we are back in a cyclical bull inside a secular bull market. This positive bias is going to last for several more years at a minimum. That's why I'm full steam ahead leveraging up my margin debt - this bull has the potential to make me wealthy. Today I have 18 dividends due for reinvestment so a moderate market decline would be favorable to me. This market recently reminds me of the old American Bandstand where the hits just keep coming - I want my QE3.
 
Birch
I am trying to learn and I value your opinion. However, from time to time I will come accross something that does not compute and I will ask for clarification. What you are saying does not compute with the books I am reading. Since I can't post a "book" I've posted a couple of links that basically state the same thing as the books. Can you reconcile what you are saying with the below data? Am I misundertanding something or do you just disagree with the data? :blink:

http://www.amateur-investors.com/Secular_Bear_Markets_vs_Secular Bull_Markets.htm
http://www.tradingonlinemarkets.com...Strategies/History_of_Stock_Market_Cycles.htm
 
In the markets everyone has an opinion - just because it is writen in a book does not make it true. You are in an arena that is wide open and you have to set your own strategy. My thread is full of bullish articles that go back in time - involving many different cycles and opinions. Stake your ground and defend your positions. There is so much information to learn that it can be intimidating - I've been doing this nonsense since 1974 and it's my cumulative experience that provides my investment potential - time in grade is very important. I regard myself as a renegade contrarian and I pride myself on my ability to ride my Ducati through the valley of many cold hard cycles. It's time to be right and sit tight.
 
Birchtree said:
In the markets everyone has an opinion - just because it is writen in a book does not make it true. You are in an arena that is wide open and you have to set your own strategy. My thread is full of bullish articles that go back in time - involving many different cycles and opinions. Stake your ground and defend your positions. There is so much information to learn that it can be intimidating - I've been doing this nonsense since 1974 and it's my cumulative experience that provides my investment potential - time in grade is very important. I regard myself as a renegade contrarian and I pride myself on my ability to ride my Ducati through the valley of many cold hard cycles. It's time to be right and sit tight.
Click to expand...

Understood. According to Elliot Wave International: "asking whether the run-up in stocks is a Bear rally, or Bull beginning is the wrong question. In the end, "Definitions" are way less important than "Directions." Even during The Great Depression years, the DOW endured a serious of powerful surges along it's 90% plunge in value.
View attachment 10762
 
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