Birchtree's Account Talk

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Dear Mr. Tree.... I was wondering what you thought of FSBK? Good, bad, ugly? Seems that they have a pretty good dividend. Do you think they are at or near a bottom($4.95)?

thanks, Balln
 
FSBK looks good for the long haul - DCA into it as it goes up in price. That way you don't get caught in a bad deal.
 
ballnoutacontrol said:
Dear Mr. Tree.... I was wondering what you thought of FSBK? Good, bad, ugly? Seems that they have a pretty good dividend. Do you think they are at or near a bottom($4.95)?

thanks, Balln
Click to expand...

Birch, If you don't mind a moment of humor, I won't take up too much of your thread space. ;)

I just had to say this; "Mr. Tree" ! Ballnoutacontrol, That put me on the floor belly laughing ! :laugh:

Welcome aboard BNC, great to have you here !
 
squalebear said:
Birch, If you don't mind a moment of humor, I won't take up too much of your thread space. ;)

I just had to say this; "Mr. Tree" ! Ballnoutacontrol, That put me on the floor belly laughing ! :laugh:

Welcome aboard BNC, great to have you here !
Click to expand...

Sounds a bit like "Mr. T." :laugh:;)
 
panic selling vs. reality selling

Birchtree said:
Here comes the emotional panic capitulation day and it may be the bottom - everything happens so much quicker when you deal with the hedge funds. I'm holding tight for now all around and will probably take opportunity to do some select buying. I still have many dividends due to be reinvested the rest of this month. Let's see where the market goes.
Click to expand...

You've got to be kidding this time, birch. Go look at the few facts that are being leached out of Japan, and it is just plain no good. No bottom in sight, just some stupid afternoon knife-catching. And another day of the same, and another, and another. Like yesterday, and today, and - probably - tomorrow. This isn't panic selling, it's reality setting in.

Intrepid hasn't moved an inch, either, if you recall his thread - he thinks the market was "overdue" for a downward move, and that oil was just an excuse (catalyst). What do you call an uncontrolled release from nuclear reactors near tokyo. Chopped Liver?

And there could be more to come - when QE2 expires - and there's nothing to replace it, and even if there was a QE3 - could it overcome this nuclear mess?

Just an intractable situation - unlike you - I have no intention of seeing where this goes; if there's a deadcat - and I see absolutely no reason for one, it could be sold into with a vengeance bordering on the dot-com boom (I know, I sold into a 20% deadcat, from 1,039 to 1,249 ten years ago; and never saw it again until earlier this year).

So - while the market may be going down, we might not have seen the worst, yet.
 
I see lots of folks bailed to the G-Fund today. They may come to regret that decision. So be it, I hope they choke on their own vomit...
 
You are great Ameoba.

Negative oppostion energizes the Birch.

He will ride the market back up and get it all back and more.

AND Be sure to let us know when they evacuate Tokyo, K?
 
JTH said:
I see lots of folks bailed to the G-Fund today. They may come to regret that decision. So be it, I hope they choke on their own vomit...
Click to expand...

I hope you're right J, my 100% I fund allocation is making me vomit this week. At this point I have to stay committed and ride it out, I refuse to lock in this loss...my yearly return may suffer, but I just can't lock it in.
 
JTH said:
I see lots of folks bailed to the G-Fund today. They may come to regret that decision...
Click to expand...


AAAAHHHHhhhh - RUN AWAY!

HolyGrail072.jpg
 
I may be oversimplifying things, but when the 3rd largest economy takes a huge hit like this, AND we still don't know the full outcome of the devastation to their economy, AND we still don't know the full impact of the nuclear crisis, AND seeing the way the stock market reacted to smaller economies like Spain, Portugal etc.... I think there is very good potential for more stock market downturn over the next several weeks. Yes, there may be some minor rebounds, but you have to factor in upcoming Japanese economic reports, loss of jobs, increase in liquidity......look at the big picture, the global picture.

I'd rather skip out on a few dead-cat bounces and wait for the real bottom.
Just my very unskilled big picture viewpoint.

Good luck to everyone.
Bryan
 
So we get a modest consolidation of 8% - we can get at least three of those in a year - but the bull market is not over. Now is the time to draw up the buy list - I've got mine. This puppy can turn on a dime with any good news of stability from Japan - wait for it.
 
Birch, I love your optimistic view... it's quite encouraging sometimes. You truly are one of the very few who always sees the positive potential in market downturns.

Some food for thought:

1. California is the 8th largest economy in the world. (GDP ~ 2.? Trillion)
2. Japan is the 3rd. (GDP ~ 5.39 trillion)
3. Japan debt is about 200% of their GDP (will double check this figure)
4. Portugal ranks in at 37 (GDP ~ .223 trillion)
5. Greece is at 31 (GDP ~ .305 trillion...roughly 5% of Japan's)
6. The unknown in this situation is the potential devastation due to the nuclear disaster.
7. Japan is heavily in debt compared to their GDP, and this extra pressure on their economy will require substantial help from the world economy.

Our markets have seen decent corrections during the crisis of 4 & 5 above.

I sure hope you are right in thinking only an 8% consolidation (and you know way more about this stuff than me).

My prayers are with all the Japanese people.
Again, good luck to all!
Bryan
 
Last edited:
Making a few flower power purchases today: INT, VHI, SHS, AHD. I've now made 486 DCA type purchases since 7/31/10 into my oceanic base - the risk is now that they end up hurting me rather than helping me - but I'm still very bullish on the global economy.
 
Jimmy Crickets - could the Dow close down less than 100 points and the SPX down less than 10 points. Now that would demonstrate some good relative strength.
 
FAB1 said:
You are great Ameoba.

Negative oppostion energizes the Birch.

He will ride the market back up and get it all back and more.

AND Be sure to let us know when they evacuate Tokyo, K?
Click to expand...

Birch's TSP returns is somewhere south of 1999; he just toasted an IFT on an all I-fund move. He may be right. Then again - assume he is - you think this gonna rocket up 5% in a heartbeat? Doubt it. Far less serious issues have taken far longer to resolve. But I'll tell ya one thing, I am prepared to move back in IFFFF, I can see through the smoke, errr, cloud of radioactive debris, errrr, I mean the 6 feet of saltwater....oh whatever.

The best news about the nuclear disaster is that it took minds off the other damage caused by the tsunami. The bad news is that it took our minds off decent retail sales, fair employment claims, and the quieting of the middle east/oil speculation.

This type of knife-catching phenomenon cleaned just about everyone's clock a few years ago; I was simply not among them. Give me a rising 20 DMA or give me death.
 
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