Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

It's easy to sell - the hard part is staying invested. Be prepared for a strong market and continued outperformance of everything risky. Men who can be both right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn.

 

[vegasmith]

It's easy to sell - the hard part is staying invested. Be prepared for a strong market and continued outperformance of everything risky. Men who can be both right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn.

In the long term I agree. However in the short term there could still be a play to avoid weakness and lock in some money for lower prices later. One thing's for sure: the morning of March 11th will be BUSY with IFT's one way or the other.

 

[hotwings]

Vega,

Agreed.....It's interesting to know that the Saudi market has been up 15% recently. I would think that is a bullish sign.

 

[Steadygain]

Birch,

I'm heading out in a few minutes to drive to the Clinic where I'm hoping to work.

I am a little nervous -- of meeting everyone and how the area may look and feel.

Think of me once in awhile -- cause that helps.

Steady

 

[Birchtree]

I think I'll just play rope a dope and absorb some pain and keep my dividends working for me. These things happen all the time - no need to cut and run. So bring on the bears. Perhaps we can bounce off the 50 EMA at 1296.

 

[Frixxxx]

I think I'll just play rope a dope and absorb some pain and keep my dividends working for me. These things happen all the time - no need to cut and run. So bring on the bears. Perhaps we can bounce off the 50 EMA at 1296.

1296 is a great stopping point, but only for day traders. $%&^# FRTIB and their two trades a month......

Anyway...BT, I just stopped by to say thanks.... bought "C" on your advice and have doubled my money in less than two years.... You still da' man!

Ill toast ya one this weekend!

 

[Birchtree]

"This is a very bullish longer-term pattern, with a 64-day growth cycle, followed by a 21-day decay cycle into Day 86 (March 22). If this plays out as I expect, we should expect significant strength during the next 86-day cycle, ending July 25. It will take a big drop or a couple months of sideways action to re-energize this chart."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/baby-boomer-bull-is-back-in-the-market-2011-03-10

 

[Birchtree]

"The current bear market bounce is only the sixth best so far since 1932. The best gain was posted in a four year span beginning in 1942 of 157.7%. So for the next two years, it wouldn't be without precedent for the S&P 500 to keep rising until it reaches 1,745. A similar rise in the Dow would put the index at 16,872."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/two-years-in-the-rally-is-alive-and-strong-2011-03-10

 

[Birchtree]

"That's right. Don't believe for a second that the stock market bulls are going to throw in the towel just because of some renewed Mideast turmoil and slightly higher crude oil prices. Investors are jumping at their own shadows larely, creating sharp sell-offs that are later quickly surmounted."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article26829.html

 

[Birchtree]

I forgot to mention that Newt wants a zero capital gains tax. I can just imagine how sweet that would be for someone in my position. I would get to keep every nickle I've got in capital gains - no tax for the IRS. What would that policy do to the equity markets - the sky is the limit.

 

[Birchtree]

"How great would it be to finally get a test down to the 30 RSI level on those daily index charts. Just for once, which would allow for a much more aggressive long stance."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article26770.html

 

[hotwings]

S&P 1300 support is holding!

 

[Birchtree]

Well it's time to back away from this nonsensical emotional selling and go put in some rehab on my back lawn. Let the bears have their day - no harm done.

 

[JTH]

Well it's time to back away from this nonsensical emotional selling and go put in some rehab on my back lawn. Let the bears have their day - no harm done.

I wonder (because I really have no clue how they work) at what levels do you "prepare" for margin calls?

 

[Birchtree]

The sacrificial lamb chop account is built and ready in case I get the call - but that's a long way off yet. Today the oceanic gave up -$113K with a down Dow of 228 - the last time I got hit with a Dow down 178 it cost me $112K - so I think that is progress. If I give back $1.2M then I'll have cause to worry. These sell offs happen from time to time as a natural event - but the trend is still intact and we'll be heading higher soon enough now that the oscillators are being unwound. Back in April 2010 my oceanic gave back $660K in that 16% correction and it was then I decided to prepare for the worse and began building my sacrificial account that can be offered up to the bears without emotion. If the consolidation continues I'll sacrifice and sell something to raise cash to buy golden prices. Although I really don't want to take any profits this year - just keep the gains going. Snort.

 

[hotwings]

Birch,

I'm looking to trim some of my holdings in my tech and oil ETFs tomorrow....i have a feeling they are going to get whacked even more over the next couple of weeks and i can get back in later... holding my bank stocks though.....

 

[Birchtree]

I'm trying not to sell anything - I want all my holdings working for me when the turn up comes. I do have to keep my greed factor under control though. There will be plenty of time to continue buying golden prices - this bull market is only half completed.

 

[hotwings]

I'm thinking the bull has a ways to go too, however, looking to lock in some profit and stay on the sidelines until the dust settles.... i can either buy lower or catch the next wave up....the climate seems too negative right now but i might be wrong so i"ll keep plenty in play just in case

 

[crws]

Well it's time to back away from this nonsensical emotional selling and go put in some rehab on my back lawn. Let the bears have their day - no harm done.

Get that spot cleared out for that big bronze charging bull statue?
(hey, if anybody deserves it, it's you!)

 

[Birchtree]

Well the oceanic didn't fair that well this week - sometimes you just have to take the hits and ignore the headlines. It's disappointing only in that the devaluation sets me back towards my eventual $2M gain from the March '09 lows: -$55K, +$46K, -$19K, -$113K, +$38K for a give back of -$103K. Now we can move forward next week on a positive note.