Birchtree's Account Talk

[hotwings]

Birch,

Yes, tomorrow should be interesting. I'd like to see the "burning" shorts. Please remember to give us the "Get out of Dodge" call when you think we are topped out :} I often have a hard time hitting the "sell" button when it makes sense to do so.

 

[Afishegg]

Perhaps the FV on the I fund will be oh so sweet - they owe me money from yesterday. We could have an absolute barn burner tomorrow if the shorts want to live another day. They simply have to cover their positions. The broad public and even many informed investors continue to fear the markets and disbelieve the rally. I can't see any long term top yet - keep the wall of worry intact. It won't be long before we take out the 7/13/2007 peak of the R2K at 855.77. Remember the Transports peaked at 5492 on 6/5/2008 - and soon to fall also. My oceanic account right now is up $93K - waiting on the magical $100K.

I would love to subscribe to your enthusiasm, and I am all in for the record birch (S fund) but I don't think it's as rosy as you see it.

Financials are all doing really good, however I see WAY too much geopolitical unrest on the horizan to get all excited yet. Remember these not too future dates, **MARCH 11***and **March 20th*** just hang on to your chair on those dates and as you say "Have your sticky pants on"! HA!:nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

My oceanic account only made $91K - so I fell short. But there is always another day.

 

[Birchtree]

Now that the market has settled - I'm actually up $93K on the day in my oceanic. I've mentioned several times recently that I believe we are in the early stages of an Elliott Primary Wave 3. We are going to see many multiple 3 digit Dow up days in a row in the future. We are approaching the third of the third which is known as the Point of Recognition, the epi center of an enormous advance. Keeping in mind that the center point of three will have the most amount of participation by both breadth and volume. C'mon mom and pop - I'm waiting for the power to erupt. The bottom line is that the 1330 level is a tripwire. The bears were obviously covering today but the fuse of the rocket has been lit and investors will be surprised to see how high it rises. Next up, 1425-1450 on SPX, probably by April. I need to make only $30K tomorrow and I'm even from last week.

 

[Birchtree]

It would not be unreasonable to see a turnaround later today into the positive zone. I'm headed out the door for a few hours - back to the garden. I've got to scratch up some home made compost and prep my soil with a little Black Cow. Then I'll be ready to do some planting. My tomatoes survived the winter of 18 degrees and are now full of flowers. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Now today was an interesting day. I came in once from my garden work to check the market and the Dow was down -166 - nothing I can do about that. But we closed down -88 so mom and pop were buying. I need to make another $70K before I can start building my flower power pot to do more buying - I refuse to take any profits to raise cash. I need all my wall flowers working for me at these levels of the bull market. Here is what my oceanic did this week: +$16K, -$79K, +$29K, +$93K, -$20K for a gain of +$39K. That reduces my two week loss to $48K. We'll make that back next week. I wish the Egyptian military would go help the Libyan people. The U.S. has trained them well over the years and now they are really needed.

 

[Nate]

My cat mia is requesting just a few more months of easy pickin's before the launch....

 

[Birchtree]

http://www.safehaven.com/article/20174/a-strong-nyse-index

 

[Steadygain]

Well Yum Kipper

I'd have to say -- this was my best week ever



Have a great weekend my little half pint brother

 

[Steadygain]

I'd like to dedicate this next song to the huge advances expected this week.

Birchhhh Rivvver
Wider than the Nile

I'm crossing you in style someday

Birchhh Rivvver
You heartbreaker

Wherever you're going -- I'm going your way.


Hang in there Birch -- don't let the naysayers get ya down

 

[Birchtree]

If this momentum continues I should have adequate flower buying power by the end of the week.

"Even after two years of strong gains, analysts see justification for a bull case for stocks that feels almost too good to be true."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41951464

"Because retail investors have returned to the market only recently, the rally could have even more to run before the bears takeover."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/419517770

 

[Steel_Magnolia]

If this momentum continues I should have adequate flower buying power by the end of the week.
....

The flowers I'm looking at right now are AWH, HS, URI and WAC. And I've held SSN for a while because I knew the company and it's doing well as long as oil prices stay up. FWIW.

 

[Appatite]

I'm all for happy news.

I reserve the right to be pessimistic though while collecting my gains.

 

[Steadygain]

Goodnight Birch

I thought about packing a pair of Sticky Pants -- but was afraid it might mess up the suitcase.


See ya tomorrow

 

[FAB1]

For the TSP, the C-fund gained 0.91% yesterday, the S-fund jumped 1.21%, the I-fund ticked up 0.02%, and the F-fund (bonds) lost 0.19%.

Boy Howdy BT, the I fund sure lost its shorts yesterday, a whole 0.02!!

That kinda sent you aways below the S train, didnt it?

 

[Birchtree]

I may have the I fund fair value in my favor today. It could be another bumpy day.

 

[nasa1974]

For the TSP, the C-fund gained 0.91% yesterday, the S-fund jumped 1.21%, the I-fund ticked up 0.02%, and the F-fund (bonds) lost 0.19%.

Boy Howdy BT, the I fund sure lost its shorts yesterday, a whole 0.02!!

That kinda sent you aways below the S train, didnt it?

The I fund loss allowed me to jump ahead of BT on the Tracker yesterday. But everything can change again today. :laugh:

 

[FAB1]

The I fund loss allowed me to jump ahead of BT on the Tracker yesterday. But everything can change again today. :laugh:

Yeah thats why I like to get out of the I fund as soon as FV was in our favor and not the other way around. BT aint going nowhere, he can get it back.

The I fund is like something tempting to eat but you know your gonna be sorry later! LoL! :laugh:

 

[Birchtree]

"Lessons for investors should not be forgotten. Buy and hold investments strategies did not survive for decades because they were fads. Investors who didn't sell and held on - indeed, continued to dollar cost average - did quite well over the last few years." This is exactly how I played the fall lows - never sold even with a $1M haircut devaluation and dumped another $800K into the well and collected every nickle all the way back up. My oceanic account now is slowly working in the direction of a $2M gain off the March'09 lows. I held my tugboat in the C fund and bought all the way down to $8.54 and all the way back up to $13.47 prior to retirement - and I'm still making gains as we move forward.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/investor-lessons-as-bull-market-turns-two-2011-03-09

 

[hotwings]

BT,

I held tough too and DCA'd my way all the way back up.... I have to admit I was shaking in my boots when the S&P hit 666. As I sit here with more than I expected to make back two years ago, I wonder if it's time to trim the holdings. Knowing when to sell is certainly the hardest thing do as far as I'm concerned.