Birchtree's Account Talk

[pokerstar629]

It's nice to see mom and pop coming back to the market after a 100% run up - why am I not surprised. From TWSJ: "The ferocity of their desire to get back in now doesn't nearly match their desparation to get out (in 2008 and 2009). It's more like a kind of capitulation. First in 2008 and 2009 they suffered until they said I can't take it any more and sold off their stocks. And now they've had to deal with the trauma of watching the market go up and realizing that they'd be better off if only they hadn't gotten out". At least I didn't make that mistake. Negative people never make money. I'm looking for a $40K day today.

Only in my dreams would I make 40k in one day, I hope you make it BT. You win, I win.....I see some people jumping on the S-Train today.http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_record_all.php

 

[Birchtree]

"Nine of the 11 prior bull markets lasted for more than 1300 days. It's possible that we/re only a tad more than halfway through the bull market."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article26576.html

 

[Appatite]

I'm looking for a $4,000 day.

Man I'm stoked.

 

[FAB1]

It's nice to see mom and pop coming back to the market after a 100% run up - why am I not surprised. From TWSJ: "The ferocity of their desire to get back in now doesn't nearly match their desparation to get out (in 2008 and 2009).

Where is the proof that "mom and pop" are getting back into the stock market -- ?? -- For that matter where is the proof that "mom & pop" ever got out in 2008/2009 and just now getting back in???

I am not being obstinate - just would like to know how we can trust articles like this.

Also if we define "mom & pop" just exactly who are we referring too?

Jus' saying.

 

[burrocrat]

Where is the proof that "mom and pop" are getting back into the stock market -- ?? -- For that matter where is the proof that "mom & pop" ever got out in 2008/2009 and just now getting back in???

I am not being obstinate - just would like to know how we can trust articles like this.

Also if we define "mom & pop" just exactly who are we referring too?

Jus' saying.

i've seen the enemy and the enemy is us.

we both back in, playing the market.

do you want to be mom or pop, pops?

 

[Birchtree]

TWSJ and companies like Trim Tabs monitors the money flows - and right now there is a record movement of money from all types of bonds and money markets heading for risk assets. If you want proof of this money flow you'll have to find it yourself in doing due diligence. It's all in the information that is available.

 

[Happy_Trails]

TWSJ and companies like Trim Tabs monitors the money flows - and right now there is a record movement of money from all types of bonds and money markets heading for risk assets. If you want proof of this money flow you'll have to find it yourself in doing due diligence. It's all in the information that is available.

Dont' mom and pop (small investors) pile in at the end of the run just before the market tops out?

 

[Birchtree]

Yes, but we got years to go before they are all in - they're moving slowly out of bonds. The bond market is 10 times the size of the equity market. So money will flow even when interest rates start to climb.

 

[Happy_Trails]

Yes, but we got years to go before they are all in - they're moving slowly out of bonds. The bond market is 10 times the size of the equity market. So money will flow even when interest rates start to climb.

Ok, thanks.

 

[nguyensv]

BT:do you know why nasdaq took a hit early in the day yesterday?

 

[Birchtree]

"Eventually the shift in market leadership will take place, and when it does, the advantage that large-cap over small-cap, and value over growth, will be enormous."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/large-cap-value-sector-a-good-bet-2011-03-01

 

[nfdennis]

BT,

If you don't mind answering what is probably a very basic question: Where do you get the data to show how money is distributed between equities and bonds?
Thanks.

 

[FAB1]

"Eventually the shift in market leadership will take place, and when it does, the advantage that large-cap over small-cap, and value over growth, will be enormous."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/large-cap-value-sector-a-good-bet-2011-03-01

Also from the above article:

at least so far, predictions that it was imminent have been premature. But, with each passing month in which the small-cap and growth sectors have continued to be strong

"February was yet another month of postponing the seemingly inevitable shift. According to Wilshire Associates, the index provider, the large-cap value sector gained just half as much during the month as the small-cap growth sector."

Hmmm.. are Large Caps are crying for investors to come and buy or what.?
Hey youse guys cant you see we are such a bargin, cmon already!!

Fab sez: In the meantime, come to where the flavor is, come to S fund country!

 

[Birchtree]

nfdennis,

Most any data I post will come from the print edition of the Wall Street Journal.

Small caps are being beat today without mercy - that'll make for some tracker changes.

 

[nfdennis]

Thank you, sir.

 

[Steadygain]

Birch,
My ROCK - always and forever - in many ways I wish I was more like you.

Despite my qualifications and experience my stomach has been knawing and your little brother has been 'anxious' and 'worried' - DESPITE all the signs looking so good.

The thrill of 'Starting Over' - especially with someone who reaches me in so many ways is everything I could ever hope for. When life and faith were free and full -- way back -- this is the fulfillment of everything I've deeply longed for and have believed in throughout.

That it has finally happened is all that matters and I'm grateful I have all the good years still to come.

THANK YOU!!! soo much for your support.

I got word today they 'want me'.

 

[Rube]

BT, A couple days ago, in someone elses thread, you mentioned getting out your old dive light. Perchance you visited Roatan where I lived for a few years.

 

[Birchtree]

When I was younger I was basically a north Florida spring diver - but not a cave diver.

Well today was unpleasant - but I've had the pleasure of experiencing worse.

 

[Birchtree]

I didn't give back as much today as I did last Tuesday - there must still be an underground level of optimism and it will not be crushed. All the geopolitical news will not keep the market down - I'm satisfied that I have a boat load of dividends due this month to do the heavy lifting. As usual this nonsense will eventually pass - the bull likes to create fear.

 

[nada]

sorry to rain on your parade, as you know market is more psychological than fundamental [technical analysis is also a form of psychology]